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The Third Oil Shock (Routledge Revivals) by Joan Pearce Pdf
First published in 1983, this book a number of collects the essays about the effects of a sustained period of low oil prices. The opening chapter describes how oil prices have impinged on other elements of the economy and assesses the costs and benefits, in the short and long term, of low prices. The following three chapters deal with different groups of countries and indicate clearly that for none of them do lower oil prices have unequivocally positive or negative effects — a situation examined in the chapter on the international financial system. The last three chapters analyse the shifts lower prices are likely to produce in relations among the groups closely involved in the oil market.
In October 1973 two crises – one economic, one political – intersected, with dramatic and long term consequences for international relations. On 6 October, Egypt and Syria launched an attack on Israel, and within a few days the major Arab oil producers announced their support by use of the ‘oil weapon’, including a boycott of supplies for countries friendly to Israel and a programme of production cuts. This was followed by the unilateral declaration of a steep increase in the price of oil by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The result was international panic and world recession. Crude oil prices soared by a massive fourfold in just three months. The West's vulnerability had been exposed: it was being held hostage to oil. Yet, despite efforts to address this dependence on oil imports in following years, the 1979 Iranian Revolution triggered a further upward surge in prices. Today, the importance of oil remains at the forefront of the West's foreign policy calculations in the Middle East. In this fascinating and timely new look at the oil crisis, Fiona Venn examines these issues and the more unexpected effects of the crisis. She asks just how much really changed in the economic balance of power. Most importantly she argues that OPEC was used as a scapegoat for the world recession, which had been already underway when the crisis detonated.
The Netherlands and the Oil Crisis by Duco Hellema,Cees Wiebes,Toby Witte Pdf
This incisive study examines the role of the Netherlands in the October War and the oil crisis of 1973. The authors contend that the actions of the Dutch government were hypocritical: the Dutch government faced a domestic crisis when an oil embargo was levied against them by Arab countries for selling arms to Israel; yet after oil began arriving again two months later, the Dutch rejected a proposal for a stricter interventionist energy policy within the European Union. A probing and thought-provoking study, The Netherlands and the Oil Crisis draws on previously unavailable archival sources to shed new light on a pivotal moment in contemporary Dutch history.
The Third Oil Shock (Routledge Revivals) by Joan Pearce Pdf
First published in 1983, this book a number of collects the essays about the effects of a sustained period of low oil prices. The opening chapter describes how oil prices have impinged on other elements of the economy and assesses the costs and benefits, in the short and long term, of low prices. The following three chapters deal with different groups of countries and indicate clearly that for none of them do lower oil prices have unequivocally positive or negative effects -- a situation examined in the chapter on the international financial system. The last three chapters analyse the shifts lower prices are likely to produce in relations among the groups closely involved in the oil market.
Oil Shock by Elisabetta Bini,Giuliano Garavini,Federico Romero Pdf
The 1973 'Oil Shock' is considered a turning point in the history of the twentieth century. At the time it seemed to mark a definitive shift from the era of low priced oil to the era of expensive oil. For most Western industrialized countries, it became the symbolic marker of the end of an era. For many oil producers, it translated into an unprecedented control over their energy resources, and completed the process of decolonization, leading to a profound redefinition of international relations.This book provides an analysis of the crisis and its global political and economic impact. It features contributions from a range of perspectives and approaches, including political, economic, environmental, international and social history. The authors examine the origins of what was defined as an 'oil revolution' by the oil-producing countries, as well as the far-reaching effects of the 'shock' on the Cold War and decolonization, on international energy markets and the global economy. In doing so, they help place the event in its historical context as a key moment in the transformation of the international economy and of North-South relations.
Marketing Innovations in the Automotive Industry by Elena Candelo Pdf
This book proposes that, within the automotive industry, revised marketing principles and innovative marketing strategies are needed to address more effectively the unprecedented challenges posed by the modern digital revolution. The starting point for these proposals is a thorough analysis of the evolution of marketing in the industry across three ages of technological innovations – the mechanical, the electronic, and the digital. The main objectives are first, to illustrate how study of the past can help carmakers as they move forward into the unknown, and second, to identify the main choices that they will face. The central premise is that unusual times call for unusual strategies. By mining the past in order to foresee likely future developments regarding competition and marketing strategies within the car industry, the book will appeal both to researchers and to present or future managers in the automotive and other innovation-driven sectors.
International Dimensions of Monetary Policy by Jordi Galí,Mark Gertler Pdf
United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
"Colin Campbell is renowned for his lucid earlier work, 'The coming oil crisis'. Eight years on, events have proved his analysis right. Now, he argues that the oil crisis has come. The familiar technical explanation of the crisis is carefully made again : essentially, that there is no more oil to be found. That fact is beginning to manifest itself in heightened competition for the remaining resource ; which is why America invaded Iraq ; why Central Asia is in turmoil ; why oil is persistently priced above $50/barrel (and why Goldman Sachs think $100 a barrel is not too unlikely in the near future). The problem - of an oil-less world - is beyond the grasp of politicians. They can fiddle with ideas about renewables or hydrogen but they, along with most of humanity, have not really grasped that it is the oil economy that enables about a 7 billion world population to be sustained. A wholly new world is imminent. It is not likely to be very pleasant. Dr Campbell outlines our grim future." -- book cover.
The Coming Oil Crisis by Colin John Campbell,R. C. Duncan Pdf
"This book is about the world's endowment of oil. It is a very important subject, considering that cheap oil-based energy has been the lifeblood of the world's economy over the best part of this century." -- P. 5.
With oil around $100 a barrel, drivers wince whenever they pull into the gas station and businesses watch their bottom lines shrink. Watch out, say doomsayers, it will only get worse as oil dries up. It's a plausible argument, especially considering the rate at which countries like China and India are now sucking up oil. Even more troubling, the world's largest oil fields sit in geopolitical hotspots like Iran and Iraq. Some believe their nations need to secure remaining supplies using military force, while others consider dwindling supplies a blessing that will help solve the problem of global warming. But wait—is it really the end of oil? Absolutely not, says geologist, economist, and industry-insider Robin Mills. There is no other book by an industry insider that effectively counters the peak oil theory by showing where and how oil will be found in the future. There also is no other book by an insider that lays out an environmentally and geopolitically responsible path for the petroleum industry and its customers. The Myth of the Oil Crisis, written in a lively style but with scientific rigor, is thus a uniquely useful resource for business leaders, policymakers, petroleum industry professionals, environmentalists, and anyone else who consumes oil. Best of all, it offers an abundance of one commodity now in short supply: hope for the future.
Twilight in the Desert reveals a Saudi oil and production industry that could soon approach a serious, irreversible decline. In this exhaustively researched book, veteran oil industry analyst Matthew Simmons draws on his three-plus decades of insider experience and more than 200 independently produced reports about Saudi petroleum resources and production operations. He uncovers a story about Saudi Arabias troubled oil industry, not to mention its political and societal instability, which differs sharply from the globally accepted Saudi version. Its a story that is provocative and disturbing, based on undeniable facts, but until now never told in its entirety. Twilight in the Desert answers all readers questions about Saudi oil and production industries with keen examination instead of unsubstantiated posturing, and takes its place as one of the most important books of this still-young century.
-A book that looks at the possible upcoming oil shock and dollar shock from the perspective of a fund manager- What will be the course of oil price in the future? We should be prepared for a third oil shock. The oil price that rose to $140 a barrel in 2008 plummeted after the Lehman Brothers crisis, and rebounded to one hundred dollars. As Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution spread across the Middle East and North Africa in 2011, the oil price rose because of the political unrest the antigovernment protests brought. In the first half of 2012, the Iranian Revolution also acted as a fear factor and put pressure on increasing the oil price. Afterward, financial crises emerged in European countries, especially Greece and Spain, and oil price became weak. How will the oil price change in the future? Oil production is concentrated in a few certain countries. As some of these countries are politically and financially unstable, a problem often occurs from the supply side of oil. On the other hand, oil-consuming countries are geographically far away from these countries, and usually are highly dependent on oil. Furthermore, some transportation routes occupy a high proportion of oil trade. If this is interlocked with production problems, the ripple effects will be great. For example, the Strait of Hormuz is located between Iran and Oman. If this strait is blocked, approximately 20 percent of worldwide oil trade will have a problem. The Strait of Malacca is located between Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. This is an important gateway to Asia, and 15 percent of worldwide trades of oil are conducted through this route. Like this, there exists an imbalance of oil supply and demand. The psychological influence that alternative energy sources, such as nuclear energy, have on oil price can't be ignored. In March of 2011, an accident occurred in which radiation leaked from the Fukushima nuclear power plant because of an earthquake in Japan. Afterward, animosity toward nuclear power plants built up and movement against nuclear power plants occurred. As alternative energies, such as solar and wind, aren't yet efficient, breaking away from the efficient nuclear power may result in an increase in oil dependence. And if the oil price becomes unstable, it could have the effect of eliminating the upper limit. Most books on oil seem to have been written by people who have worked or still work in the oil industry. Writings of scholars or journalists in the related fields can be seen every now and then. As a fund manager, I would like to interpret the past, considering both the oil and the dollar through the eyes of a financier, and suggest a new point of view. I will look at the interests of each country and reinterpret the history of oil and the dollar with the Oil-Dollar Composite Index. In Part 1, the process how the oil majors developed through competition and cooperation, and the oil-producing countries' acknowledgment of their own power, will be dealt with. Beginning with the rise of the US in the Middle East, nationalism emerged in the oil-producing countries, and power shifted from the oil majors to the oil-producing countries, which appeared as a result in the first and second oil shock. In Part 2, history will be reinterpreted considering both oil and the dollar. The past will be inspected with the Oil-Dollar Composite Index, and the dollar's role will be reilluminated in the interpretation of the history of oil. The winners and losers of the oil shock followed by the dollar shock will be shown. In Part 3, the oil price is understood not through supply and demand, but through the interests and balance of power of the countries. If we can understand the pending issues with the wisdom gained in Part 1 and Part 2, we can predict the direction of the oil price.