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Author : Gilberto C. Gallopín,Global Scenario Group,Stockholm Environment Institute
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 47 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 1997
Category : Sustainable development
ISBN : 918871439X
Author : Robert Gilmore Pontius,Gil Pontius
Publisher : Incumbent
Page : 114 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 1996
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : OSU:32435061208476
Author : J. Alcamo
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 212 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2008-10-10
Category : Science
ISBN : 0080932983
As scientists and policymakers try to come to grips with problems such as climate change and risks to biodiversity, they turn more and more frequently to the method of scenario analysis to better understand the future of these problems. Over the last few years scenario analysis has become one of the key tools for bridging environmental science and policy. This is the first book to sum up the current practice of environmental scenario analysis and to propose directions for improving its quality and effectiveness. Chapters are written by an international group of distinguished scenario experts and provide an excellent starting basis for first-time scenario practitioners, as well as a collection of new ideas on improving scenario practice for experienced scenario analysts. * Comprehensive coverage and overview on environmental scenario analysis from a team of international experts * First book to address key contemporary issues involved with environmental scenario analysis * Gives guidelines for best practices Benefits: * Excellent starting base for first-time scenario practitioners * Helps the reader to interpret scenarios and to place them into the correct context
Author : United Nations Environment Programme. Division of Early Warning and Assessment,Stockholm Environment Institute
Publisher : UNEP/Earthprint
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2004
Category : Environmental indicators
ISBN : 9789280724615
The UNEP's third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) presents a 30-year retrospective analysis of environmental conditions and trends, and associated policy responses. UNEP's multi-disciplinary methodologies for predicting future world environment scenarios are described, including scenarios for CO2 emissions. The publication concludes with tabulated data (economic, social, energy, food and agriculture, and environmental) from seven world regions. Related UNEP publications include "Global environment outlook 3: past, present and future perspectives" (ISBN 9280720872, 2002).
Author : Paul Raskin
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 99 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2002
Category : Economic development
ISBN : 0971241813
Author : Thomas J Chermack
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2017-02-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317279396
Pierre Wack was head of scenario planning at Royal Dutch / Shell Oil in London for just over ten years. He died in 1997. He was a pioneer of what we know today as scenario planning – an alternative and complement to strategic planning. Scenarios explore a variety of possible futures for examining decisions in organizational planning. Pierre was a unique man with interests in Indian and Japanese cultures and traditions. He travelled extensively and led a unique life that involved long periods of visiting gurus in India and extended sabbaticals in Japan. His experiences with Eastern thought no doubt shaped his ability to evolve the scenario method at Shell, and as a result he was able to lead a team that foresaw the oil crises of the 1970’s and 80’s. This new volume will cover the basic context of his life timeline and attach it to the development of his thinking about scenario planning over the course of his career. After his death, Wack’s materials, papers and documents were collected by Napier Collyns and have recently been made available at the University of Oxford where the Pierre Wack Memorial Library has been established. These documents contain a variety of clues and stories that reveal more about who Pierre Wack was, how he thought and will provide details about scenario planning that have never been seen or published. They also reveal a curious man and include a timeline written by his wife, Eve, which details their relationship over the course of 40 years. Written for management and business historians and researchers, this book will uncover unseen contributions by a scenario planning pioneer shaped by significant events in his personal life that helped him to see the world differently.
Author : Adam Kahane
Publisher : Berrett-Koehler Publishers
Page : 150 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2012-10-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781609944902
Transformative scenario planning is a way that people can work together with others to transform themselves and their relationships with one another and their systems. In this simple and practical book, Kahane explains this methodology and how to use it.
Author : Allen Hammond
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 252 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2014-04-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781134188253
?Today, humanity faces a fundamentally different challenge ? that of managing a planet and a global human civilization in ways that will sustain both indefinitely. What makes this task less than easy are the pace and complexity of change. Over the next half century, human society will undergo a profound demographic transformation, experience fundamental shifts in the global balance of economic and political power, and cope with nearly continuous technological change. These transformations are inevitable ? the forces that compel them are already in place ? but their outcomes are far from fixed? This book is about the future, but not in the sense of making predictions. Rather it suggests how to think about the future. Because human destiny is not predetermined, this book explores not just one but several possible worlds, each embodying a very different vision of the future. Implicit in these contrasting visions is a choice: which world do we prefer; which world do we want to pass on to our children and grandchildren?? From chapter 1
Author : Wack
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 1985
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 0000856177
Author : Paul Hawken
Publisher : Penguin
Page : 258 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2017-04-18
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781524704650
• New York Times bestseller • The 100 most substantive solutions to reverse global warming, based on meticulous research by leading scientists and policymakers around the world “At this point in time, the Drawdown book is exactly what is needed; a credible, conservative solution-by-solution narrative that we can do it. Reading it is an effective inoculation against the widespread perception of doom that humanity cannot and will not solve the climate crisis. Reported by-effects include increased determination and a sense of grounded hope.” —Per Espen Stoknes, Author, What We Think About When We Try Not To Think About Global Warming “There’s been no real way for ordinary people to get an understanding of what they can do and what impact it can have. There remains no single, comprehensive, reliable compendium of carbon-reduction solutions across sectors. At least until now. . . . The public is hungry for this kind of practical wisdom.” —David Roberts, Vox “This is the ideal environmental sciences textbook—only it is too interesting and inspiring to be called a textbook.” —Peter Kareiva, Director of the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, UCLA In the face of widespread fear and apathy, an international coalition of researchers, professionals, and scientists have come together to offer a set of realistic and bold solutions to climate change. One hundred techniques and practices are described here—some are well known; some you may have never heard of. They range from clean energy to educating girls in lower-income countries to land use practices that pull carbon out of the air. The solutions exist, are economically viable, and communities throughout the world are currently enacting them with skill and determination. If deployed collectively on a global scale over the next thirty years, they represent a credible path forward, not just to slow the earth’s warming but to reach drawdown, that point in time when greenhouse gases in the atmosphere peak and begin to decline. These measures promise cascading benefits to human health, security, prosperity, and well-being—giving us every reason to see this planetary crisis as an opportunity to create a just and livable world.
Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
Page : 158 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2021-03
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1646794974
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Author : Roland Kupers,Angela Wilkinson
Publisher : Amsterdam University Press
Page : 170 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2015-12-15
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789048522095
In 1965, Royal Dutch Shell started experimenting with a new approach to preparing for the future. This approach, called scenario planning, eschewed forecasting in favor of plausible alternative stories. By using stories, or scenarios, Shell aimed to avoid the false assumption that the future would look much like the presentan assumption that marred most corporate planning at the time. The Essence of Scenarios offers unmatched insight into the companys innovative practice, which still has a huge influence on the way businesses, governments, and other organizations think about and plan for the future. In the course of their research, Angela Wilkinson and Roland Kupers interviewed almost every living veteran of the Shell scenario planning operation, along with many top Shell executives from later periods. Drawing on these interviews, the authors identify several principles that characterize the Shell process and explain how it has survived and thrived for so long. They also enumerate the qualities of successful Shell scenarios, which above all must be plausible stories with logical trajectories. Ultimately, Wilkinson and Kupers demonstrate the value of scenario planning as a sustained practice, rather than as a one-off exercise.
Author : Odile Schwarz-Herion,Abdelnaser Omran
Publisher : Springer
Page : 197 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2015-03-30
Category : Science
ISBN : 9783319146997
On a historical global turning point, this book offers a thorough exploration of the “New Sustainability Paradigm”, originally developed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) of the Stockholm Environmental Institute (SEI) as a starting point for analyzing real-life transitions and transformations. 11 contributors from 5 continents present detailed analyses of economic and political transitions in Western and Eastern Europe, the USA, the Middle East, and in Asia, discussing the role of different players in the implementation of the New Sustainability Paradigm. Part I offers an overview of the six scenarios developed by the GSG and a short discussion of significant papers published by the Great Transition Initiative (GTI) of the Tellus Institute. Next come examples of dramatic historical and current transitions in Western Europe, the USA, Eastern Europe, the Middle East (Arabian Spring), and Asia, as well as an analysis of the potential of humankind to manage a great transition to the new sustainability paradigm. Subsequent chapters highlight the role of culture and education and review the role of different players for the implementation of the new sustainability paradigm. The focus of Part II is on the ecological pillar of Sustainability. The discussion includes urgent ecological problems including climate engineering, eco-criminality, bioterrorism, biodiversity protection, water, energy, and food security. Part III deals with needed innovations in sustainable waste management and sustainable city architecture, especially big cities in developing and threshold countries, where a significant part of the world population is concentrated. The fourth and final section offers an analysis of insights developed throughout the book, and outlines recommendations for the implementation of the New Sustainability Paradigm by civil society, grass-root movements, scholars, politically neutral NGOs, sincere media players, and by open-minded and enlightened politicians to manage and steer the Great Transition towards sustainable global democracy.
Author : National Research Council,Policy and Global Affairs,Policy Division,Board on Sustainable Development
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 380 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 1999-11-09
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780309067836
World human population is expected to reach upwards of 9 billion by 2050 and then level off over the next half-century. How can the transition to a stabilizing population also be a transition to sustainability? How can science and technology help to ensure that human needs are met while the planet's environment is nurtured and restored? Our Common Journey examines these momentous questions to draw strategic connections between scientific research, technological development, and societies' efforts to achieve environmentally sustainable improvements in human well being. The book argues that societies should approach sustainable development not as a destination but as an ongoing, adaptive learning process. Speaking to the next two generations, it proposes a strategy for using scientific and technical knowledge to better inform future action in the areas of fertility reduction, urban systems, agricultural production, energy and materials use, ecosystem restoration and biodiversity conservation, and suggests an approach for building a new research agenda for sustainability science. Our Common Journey documents large-scale historical currents of social and environmental change and reviews methods for "what if" analysis of possible future development pathways and their implications for sustainability. The book also identifies the greatest threats to sustainabilityâ€"in areas such as human settlements, agriculture, industry, and energyâ€"and explores the most promising opportunities for circumventing or mitigating these threats. It goes on to discuss what indicators of change, from children's birth-weights to atmosphere chemistry, will be most useful in monitoring a transition to sustainability.
Author : Mohan Munasinghe,Rob Swart
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 470 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2005-03-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0521008883
Condensed, accessible review of latest state-of-the-art assessments of IPCC, within context of sustainable development.
