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Is your business ready for the future? Scenario planning is a fascinating, yet still underutilized, business tool that can be of immense value to a company's strategic planning process. It allows companies to visualize the impact that a portfolio of possible futures could have on their competitiveness. It helps decision-makers see opportunities and threats that could emerge beyond their normal planning horizon. Scenario Planning serves as a guide to taking a long-term look at your business, your industry, and the world, posing thoughtful questions about the possible consequences of some current (and possible future) trends. This book will help you: Outline (and help you prepare for) any trends that could play out in the future that could change the political, social, and economic landscapes and significantly impact your business Explore the impact of technological advances and the emergence of new competitors to your business Examine challenges that are only dimly recognizable as potential problems today This visual book will help you answer this question: Is my organization ready for every possibility?
Scenario Planning in Organizations by Thomas J. Chermack Pdf
Scenario planning helps organization leaders, executives and decision-makers envision and develop strategies for multiple possible futures instead of just one. It enables organizations to become resilient and agile, carefully calibrating their responses and adapting quickly to new circumstances in a fast-changing environment. This book is the most comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario planning process. Unlike existing books it offers a thorough discussion of the evolution and theoretical foundations of scenario planning, examining its connections to learning theory, decision-making theory, mental model theory and more. Chermack emphasizes that scenario planning is far more than a simple set of steps to follow, as so many other practice-focused books do—he addresses the subtleties and complexities of planning. And, unique among scenario planning books, he deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying scenarios once they have been constructed, and assessing the impact of the scenario project. Using a case study based on a real scenario project Chermack lays out a comprehensive five phase scenario planning system—project preparation, scenario exploration, scenario development, scenario implementation and project assessment. Each chapter describes specific techniques for gathering and analyzing relevant data with a particular emphasis on the use of workshops to encourage dialogue. He offers a scenario project worksheet to help readers structure and manage scenario projects as well as avoid common pitfalls, and a discussion, based in recent neurological findings, of how scenario planning helps people to overcome barriers to creative thinking. “This book is about action and performance. Compelling and thoroughly researched, it offers every business executive a playbook for including uncertainty in the organizational change process and driving competitive advantage”. -- Tim Reynolds, Vice President, Talent and Organization Effectiveness, Whirlpool Corporation
Scenario Thinking by George Cairns,George Wright Pdf
Develops scenario planning methods in ways that link scenario analysis to improved decision making, engage time-poor senior decision makers, attenuate decision makers’ tendency to deflect responsibility for bleak, negative scenario outcomes, and enhance causal analysis within scenario-storyline development. What if? Two of the most powerful – and frightening – words in business. Almost as bad as “I didn’t see that coming.” Some things that transform the marketplace overnight come from nowhere. Some things that create potentially critical under-performance are genuinely unforeseeable. Sometimes it is impossible to predict how a change in an organizational strategy will play out. Some things and sometimes – but not many and not often. Decision makers in organizations face more-and-more complex and ambiguous problems that need to be addressed under time pressure - and the need for practical decision support has become essential. The range of methods in this book will enable you to be prepared, proactive and resilient no matter what the future brings. Based on up-to-date academic research and years of application and iteration in the real world, this book, illustrated with examples of the value delivered in Europe, Australia and the Middle East, will transfer practical skills in scenario thinking using step-by-step instructions. This thoroughly revised and expanded second edition introduces these new approaches in detail, with clear guidelines and examples to enable the reader to select and implement the most appropriate scenario method to suit the issue at hand – considering the timeframe for its investigation, the resources available and the outcomes expected.
Simulation Scenarios for Nurse Educators by Jacquelyn C. Campbell, PhD, RN, FAAN,Dr. Suzanne Hetzel Campbell, PhD, APRN-C-IBC,Dr. Karen Daley, PhD, RN Pdf
Designated a Doody's Core Title! "Once you begin to read the book, you will not be able to put it down. [An] excellent guide for nursing faculty just getting started with simulations or faculty who are already using this pedagogy." Pamela R. Jeffries, DNS, RN, FAAN, ANEF Associate Dean, Indiana University School of Nursing Computerized patient simulation is an exciting and innovative pedagogical method that allows nurse educators to prepare student nurses for the challenges of clinical practice. This book serves as a step-by-step guide to designing and developing simulated scenarios, and integrating them into nursing curriculums. The authors provide concrete information about the use of simulation in a variety of programs, courses, and schools with flexible simulator uses, including live actors and static mannequins. This book also provides options for building a learning resource center, and offers guidance on faculty development. Additionally, the contributors present 17 exemplars of actual scenarios in multiple clinical areas, as well as testimonies of practicing faculty. Key Features: Numerous checklists, including health communication checklists, evaluation criteria checklists to assess student performance, and debriefing guidelines Forms to enhance the realness of the scenario, such as patient data forms, patient medication forms, and assessment tools Suggested readings, lists of skills necessary for scenario enactment, and websites for further researchThis book will encourage the development of critical thinking, reasoning, and judgment, and help to create a new generation of caring, competent, and confident practitioners.
This is the first book to offer detailed guidance on how scenarios can be used to help organizations make their toughest decisions in a world of ever-escalating crisis and opportunity. To reap the full benefits of scenarios, you have to be able to apply them in the real world. This groundbreaking book goes beyond the theoretical to clearly explain different ways scenarios can be used in business decision-making—from strategic planning and financial modeling to crisis response. Connecting scenarios to strategy and action can have many benefits, including the ability to react quickly, anticipate major changes in the environment, and identify major opportunities. Thomas Chermack, a top expert on scenario planning, offers seven specific ways organizations can use scenarios and provides a wide variety of examples, along with proven processes, exercises, and workshops that have been used successfully in organizations across industries and countries for more than fifteen years.
How to analyze and compare scenarios? Evaluation of scenarios dealing with the future of our energy system: DESERTEC, EU-Roadmap 2050, Greenpeace [R]evolution, World Energy Outlook & Shell Energy Scenarios by Stefan Krammer Pdf
Right now, our energy system is highly dependent on fossil sources. This dependency causes two major problems: First, it causes the scarcity of these non-renewable energy sources, and climate change. There are two alternatives to fossil energy sources that are on the one hand, nuclear energy, and on the other hand, renewable energy sources. The process of nuclear energy is fascinating for the energy outcome of one kilogram of uranium equals the stored energy of about 3.000 tons of coal. Nuclear energy can reduce the problems that cause climate change for, the process is carbon neutral but, it leads to several other problems as nuclear proliferation, incidents, and the unsolved problem of waste disposal. Renewable energy sources are carbon neutral, and by definition renewable, and therefore, they could solve both major problems of the energy sector. Right now, the drawbacks are at first that most of them are not competitive, and need to be subsidized by governments, and second, the technical challenge to store the produced energy. It is easy to understand that the future of the energy sector is highly uncertain, and that under these circumstances, tools are of no use as far as they are extrapolating past trends. In the last years, several energy scenarios have been conducted in order to display the major uncertainties. It is not surprising that the results are strongly varying, and therefore, the results lead to the question of the characteristics and the quality of the scenarios. But, there has been no analysis of the characteristics and the quality of energy scenarios so far. However, the author analyzes these in this study. The author begins with a short introduction about the history of scenarios, and continues with the development of a general framework of the scenario development process. Further, he lists its possible variations. The scenario typology that consists of 15 variables that can be used to examine the characteristics and the quality of scenarios is then applied at a total of 5 scenarios. The sample of scenarios was chosen to display the broad range of different scenario developers. It consists of the DESERTEC scenario of a charitable trust, the EU-Roadmap 2050 of a political institution, the Greenpeace [R]evolution of an NGO, the World Energy Outlook of an intergovernmental institution, and the Shell Energy scenarios of a company that deal within the energy sector.
Anticipating Change: Scenarios as a Tool for Adaptive Forest Management : a Guide by Eva Wollenberg,David Edmunds,Louise Buck Pdf
Scenario methods can be used to anticipate the future and expand the creativity of people thinking about complex forest management situations. This manual describes the use of scenarios with multiple stakeholders, with examples drawn from community-based forest management. Four classes of scenario methods are described: visions, projections, pathways and alternative scenarios. Examples of rapid participatory techniques relevant to scenario methods are also summarised. It is hoped that these methods will be useful in bringing together different groups of people concerned about forest management to exchange views, expand the realm of decision possibilities and reach more innovative solutions.
The second in a series: the master filmmaker’s prose scenarios for four of his notable films On the first day of editing Fata Morgana, Werner Herzog recalls, his editor said: “With this kind of material we have to pretend to invent cinema.” And this, Herzog says, is what he tries to do every day. In this second volume of his scenarios, the peerless filmmaker’s genius for invention is on clear display. Written in Herzog’s signature fashion—more prose poem than screenplay, transcribing the vision unfolding before him as if in a dream—the four scenarios here (three never before translated into English) reveal an iconoclastic craftsman at the height of his powers. Along with his template for the film poem Fata Morgana (1971), this volume includes the scenarios for Herzog’s first two feature films, Signs of Life (1968) and Even Dwarfs Started Small (1970), along with the hypnotic Heart of Glass (1976). In a brief introduction, Herzog describes the circumstances surrounding each scenario, inviting readers into the mysterious process whereby one man’s vision becomes every viewer’s waking dream.
Author : Ian F. Alexander,Neil Maiden Publisher : John Wiley & Sons Page : 544 pages File Size : 45,9 Mb Release : 2005-04-08 Category : Computers ISBN : 9780470861950
Scenarios, Stories, Use Cases by Ian F. Alexander,Neil Maiden Pdf
Extending the scenario method beyond interface design, this important book shows developers how to design more effective systems by soliciting, analyzing, and elaborating stories from end-users Contributions from leading industry consultants and opinion-makers present a range of scenario techniques, from the light, sketchy, and agile to the careful and systematic Includes real-world case studies from Philips, DaimlerChrysler, and Nokia, and covers systems ranging from custom software to embedded hardware-software systems
'Human identity, sexual identity, primary and secondary identification, object choice, narcissism - all of these lie on a continuum with homosexuality, transsexualism, transvestism, heterosexuality and asexuality. Concepts on sexuality and gender are outlined anew in an interplay of theoretical and clinical networks, with the aim of increasing the efficiency of analytic praxis freed from prejudice and monolithic convention.'- the author, from the Foreword Masculine Scenarios is the third volume in a unique series edited by the author for the Committee on Women and Psychoanalysis of the International Psychoanalytical Association. Providing a forum for exploration and discussion of diverse issues relating to gender constructs, sexuality, and sexual identity, the series brings together an internationally renowned group of contributors trained in the psychoanalytic tradition. Masculine Scenarios concentrates on issues regarding the psychic world of men and male sexuality. The construction of gender identity, the battle of the sexes, transsexualism, homosexuality and masculinity are some of the topics discussed in this inspiring book.
A global pandemic finds millions swarming across the U.S. border. Major American cities are leveled by black-market nukes. China’s growing civil unrest ignites a global showdown. Pakistan’s collapse leads to a hunt for its nuclear weapons. What if the worst that could happen actually happens? How will we respond? Are we prepared? These are the questions that Andrew F. Krepinevich asks—and answers—in this timely and often chilling book. As a military expert and consultant, Krepinevich must think the unthinkable based on the latest intelligence and geopolitical trends—and devise a response in the event our worst nightmares become reality. As riveting as a thriller, 7 Deadly Scenarios reveals the forces—both overt and covert—that are in play; the real ambitions of world powers, terrorist groups, and rogue states; and the actions and counteractions both our enemies and our allies can be expected to take—and what we must do to prepare before it’s too late.
The essence of scenarios by Roland Kupers,Angela Wilkinson Pdf
In 1965, Royal Dutch Shell started experimenting with a new approach to preparing for the future. This approach, called scenario planning, eschewed forecasting in favor of plausible alternative stories. By using stories, or scenarios, Shell aimed to avoid the false assumption that the future would look much like the presentan assumption that marred most corporate planning at the time. The Essence of Scenarios offers unmatched insight into the companys innovative practice, which still has a huge influence on the way businesses, governments, and other organizations think about and plan for the future. In the course of their research, Angela Wilkinson and Roland Kupers interviewed almost every living veteran of the Shell scenario planning operation, along with many top Shell executives from later periods. Drawing on these interviews, the authors identify several principles that characterize the Shell process and explain how it has survived and thrived for so long. They also enumerate the qualities of successful Shell scenarios, which above all must be plausible stories with logical trajectories. Ultimately, Wilkinson and Kupers demonstrate the value of scenario planning as a sustained practice, rather than as a one-off exercise.
We need strategy. The world is changing, the future uncertain. What is required is vision: What might the future bring? Where is our business going? What are our fundamental business values? This book is a manual for all those who want to apply strategy in organisations. It is intended for everyone who wants to put the future on the agenda, to look beyond the short term and beyond mere profit. It describes in practical terms the eight questions we must continually discuss in order to pursue a future-proof strategy in a dynamic and uncertain world: mission, trends, scenarios, options, vision, roadmap, action and monitoring. If you are dissatisfied with an approach to strategy based on simple backward looking analysis, management controls and problems solving after the fact, but would like to make a positive contribution to thinking about the future, Scenario-based Strategy offers the instruments to turn your intention into practice. The text provides examples from commercial to government and trade organizations; showing how others have undertaken future explorations and how they used these explorations to create a dynamic strategy. Paul de Ruijter has a deep insight into the theory, alongside practical experience working with some of the most highly regarded and resilient organizations. The result is a rich combination of methodology and practical, engaging examples that shows you how to go about creating an agenda for the future.