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Global Transmission of Interest Rates by Jeffrey A. Frankel,Sergio L. Schmukler,Luis Servén Pdf
Hikes in U.S. interest rates in 1999-2000 have started to spill over to other economies' interest rates, which in many countries have risen to reflect the higher U.S. rates. Are countries with flexible exchange rates better able to isolate their domestic interest rates from this type of negative international shock? Less and less so, as economies become more integrated.
Global Transmission of Interest Rates by Jeffrey A. Frankel,Sergio L. Schmukler,Luis Servén Pdf
Using a large sample of developing and industrialized economies during 1970-1999, this paper explores whether the choice of exchange rate regime affects the sensitivity of local interest rates to international interest rates. In most cases, we cannot reject full transmission of international interest rates in the long run, even for countries with floating regimes. Only a couple of large industrial countries can choose their own interest rates in the long run. However, short-run effects differ across regimes. Dynamic estimates show that interest rates of countries with more flexible regimes adjust more slowly to changes in international rates, implying some capacity for monetary independence.
Global Transmission of Interest Rates by Jeffrey A. Frankel Pdf
The authors empirically study the sensitivity of local interest rates to international interest rates and how that sensitivity is affected by a country's choice of exchange rate regime. To establish the empirical regularities, they use a reduced-form empirical approach to compute both panel and single-country estimates of interest rate sensitivity for a large sample of developing and industrial economies between 1970 and 1999. When using the full sample, they find that: 1) Interest rates are typically lower in economies with fixed exchange rates than in those with flexible exchange rates. 2) More rigid currency regimes tend to exhibit higher transmission than more flexible regimes. In many cases in the 1990s, however, the authors cannot reject full transmission (a slope coefficient equal to 1), even for several countries with floating regimes. The data suggest an upward time trend in the degree to which domestic interest rates are sensitive to international capital movements and developing economies' increased financial integration with the rest of the world. As a result, country-specific estimates for the 1990s reveal few cases of less-than-full transmission of international interest rates to domestic rates, regardless of the currency regime. Country-specific results suggest that only large industrial countries can (or choose to) benefit from independent monetary policy. During the 1990s, interest rates in European countries were fully sensitive to German interest rates but insensitive to U.S. interest rates.
The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows by Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra,Ms.Filiz Unsal Pdf
The effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in open economies could be impaired if interest rates are driven primarily by global factors, especially during periods of large capital inflows. The main objective of this paper is to assess whether this is true for emerging Asia’s economies. Using a dynamic factor model and a structural vector auto-regression model, we show that long-term interest rates in Asia are indeed predominantly driven by global factors. However, monetary policy transmission mechanism remains effective in the region, as it operates predominantly through short-term interest rates. Nevertheless, the monetary transmission mechanism, though effective, is somewhat weaker in Asia during the periods of surges in capital inflows.
Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques,Mr.R. G Gelos,Mr.Thomas Harjes,Ms.Ratna Sahay,Yi Xue Pdf
Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.
Author : Andreas Jobst,Huidan Lin Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 48 pages File Size : 50,8 Mb Release : 2016-08-10 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781475524475
Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) by Andreas Jobst,Huidan Lin Pdf
More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.
U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates by Carlos Caceres,Mr.Yan Carriere-Swallow,Ishak Demir,Bertrand Gruss Pdf
As the Federal Reserve continues to normalize its monetary policy, this paper studies the impact of U.S. interest rates on rates in other countries. We find a modest but nontrivial pass-through from U.S. to domestic short-term interest rates on average. We show that, to a large extent, this comovement reflects synchronized business cycles. However, there is important heterogeneity across countries, and we find evidence of limited monetary autonomy in some cases. The co-movement of longer term interest rates is larger and more pervasive. We distinguish between U.S. interest rate movements that surprise markets versus those that are anticipated, and find that most countries receive greater spillovers from the former. We also distinguish between movements in the U.S. term premium and the expected path of risk-free rates, concluding that countries respond differently to these shocks. Finally, we explore the determinants of monetary autonomy and find strong evidence for the role of exchange rate flexibility, capital account openness, but also for other factors, such as dollarization of financial system liabilities, and the credibility of fiscal and monetary policy.
Monetary Transmission in Low Income Countries by Ms.Prachi Mishra,Mr.Peter Montiel,Mr.Antonio Spilimbergo Pdf
This paper reviews monetary transmission mechanisms in low-income countries (LICs) to identify aspects of the channels that may operate differently in LICs relative to advanced and emerging economies. Given the weak institutional frameworks, reduced role of securities markets, imperfect competition in the banking sector and the resulting high cost of bank lending to private firms, the traditional channels (interest rate, bank lending, and asset price) are impaired in LICs. The exchange rate channel is also undermined by central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. These conclusions are supported by review of the institutional frameworks, statistical analysis, and previous literature.
Global Commodity Prices, Monetary Transmission, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Pacific Islands by Mr.Shanaka J. Peiris,Ding Ding Pdf
Pacific Islands countries are vulnerable to commodity price shocks, and this poses challenges to monetary policy. The high degree of exchange rate pass-through to headline inflation and the weak monetary transmission mechanism in PICs suggest a greater efficacy of exchange rate changes in affecting inflation rather than monetary policy. To assess the tradeoff between the use of the exchange rate and monetary policy in macroeconomic stabilization, we employ a model-based approach to examine the optimal policy in response to the historical distribution of exogenous shocks in a Pacific Island (Tonga). The empirical evidence and model simulations tilt in the favor of exchange rate policy given the close relationship between exchange rate changes and headline inflation and the low interest rate sensitivity of aggregate demand.
International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi Pdf
This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Global Liquidity Transmission to Emerging Market Economies, and Their Policy Responses by Woon Gyu Choi,Taesu Kang,Geun-Young Kim,Byongju Lee Pdf
This paper distills and identifies global liquidity (GL) momenta from the macro-financial data of advanced economies through a factor model with sign restrictions as policy-driven, market-driven, and risk averseness factors. Using a panel factor-augmented VAR, we investigate responses of emerging market economies (EMEs) to GL shocks. A policy-driven liquidity increase boosts growth in EMEs, elevating stock prices and currency values, while a risk averseness rise has an opposite effect. A market-driven GL expansion boosts stock markets and lowers funding costs, promoting competitiveness and current account. Inflation targeting EMEs fare better than EMEs under alternative regimes with respect to macrofinancial volatility.
Enabling Deep Negative Rates to Fight Recessions: A Guide by Ruchir Agarwal,Miles Kimball Pdf
The experience of the Great Recession and its aftermath revealed that a lower bound on interest rates can be a serious obstacle for fighting recessions. However, the zero lower bound is not a law of nature; it is a policy choice. The central message of this paper is that with readily available tools a central bank can enable deep negative rates whenever needed—thus maintaining the power of monetary policy in the future to end recessions within a short time. This paper demonstrates that a subset of these tools can have a big effect in enabling deep negative rates with administratively small actions on the part of the central bank. To that end, we (i) survey approaches to enable deep negative rates discussed in the literature and present new approaches; (ii) establish how a subset of these approaches allows enabling negative rates while remaining at a minimum distance from the current paper currency policy and minimizing the political costs; (iii) discuss why standard transmission mechanisms from interest rates to aggregate demand are likely to remain unchanged in deep negative rate territory; and (iv) present communication tools that central banks can use both now and in the event to facilitate broader political acceptance of negative interest rate policy at the onset of the next serious recession.
Monetary Policy Transmission in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union by Ms.Alla Myrvoda,Julien Reynaud Pdf
This paper empirically investigates international and domestic monetary policy transmission mechanisms in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). We assess interest rate pass-through of both the U.S. policy rate and the ECCU minimum saving deposit rate (MSR) into domestic interest rates through the interest rate channel. While economic theory suggests that the international pass-through should be high in small open economies with fixed exchange rates and open capital accounts, our findings, based on regression analysis, point to a low long-run pass-through coefficient of the U.S. interest rate. The domestic transmission channel, however, is found to operate through changes in the MSR. The results hold for different interest rates (deposit and lending) and are supported by survey-based findings.
Mr. Jonathan C. Dunn,Mr. Matt Davies,Yongzheng Yang,Mr. Yiqun Wu,Mr. Shengzu Wang
Author : Mr. Jonathan C. Dunn,Mr. Matt Davies,Yongzheng Yang,Mr. Yiqun Wu,Mr. Shengzu Wang Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 27 pages File Size : 42,9 Mb Release : 2011-04-01 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781455252336
Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in Pacific Island Countries by Mr. Jonathan C. Dunn,Mr. Matt Davies,Yongzheng Yang,Mr. Yiqun Wu,Mr. Shengzu Wang Pdf
During the global financial crisis, central banks in Pacific island countries eased monetary policy to stimulate economic activity. Judging by the ensuing movements in commercial bank interest rates and private sector credit, monetary policy transmission appears to be weak. This is confirmed by an empirical examination of interest rate pass-through and credit growth. Weak credit demand and underdeveloped financial markets seem to have limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, but the inflexibility of exchange rates and rising real interest rates have also served to frustrate the central banks’ efforts despite a supporting fiscal policy. While highlighting the importance of developing domestic financial markets in the long run, this experience also points to the need to coordinate macroeconomic policies and to use all macroeconomic tools available in conducting countercyclical policies, including exchange rate flexibility.
