Growth Slowdowns And The Middle Income Trap

Author : Mr.Shekhar Aiyar,Mr.Romain A Duval,Mr.Damien Puy,Mr.Yiqun Wu,Ms.Longmei Zhang
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 64 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2013-03-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484330647

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Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap by Mr.Shekhar Aiyar,Mr.Romain A Duval,Mr.Damien Puy,Mr.Yiqun Wu,Ms.Longmei Zhang Pdf

The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns, which are identified as large sudden and sustained deviations from the growth path predicted by a basic conditional convergence framework. We then examine their determinants by means of probit regressions, looking into the role of institutions, demography, infrastructure, the macroeconomic environment, output structure and trade structure. Two variants of Bayesian Model Averaging are used as robustness checks. The results—including some that indeed speak to the special status of middle-income countries—are then used to derive policy implications, with a particular focus on Asian economies.

Author : Francis E. Hutchinson,Sanchita Basu Das
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 230 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2016-07-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317388678

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Asia and the Middle-Income Trap by Francis E. Hutchinson,Sanchita Basu Das Pdf

The term ‘Middle-Income Trap’ refers to countries which stagnate economically after reaching a certain level of per capita income on the basis of labour- and capital-intensive growth, and are struggling to transition towards more skill-intensive and technology-driven development. It has resonance for the increasing number of countries in Asia who have either languished in middle-income status for extended periods of time, or are worried about growth slow-downs. This book sets outs the conceptual underpinnings of the Middle-Income Trap and explores the various ways it can be defined. It also focuses on the debate surrounding the Middle-Income Trap which questions the appropriate institutional and policy settings for middle-income countries to enable them to continue past the easy phase of economic growth. The book engages with this debate by investigating the role of institutions, human capital, and trade policy in helping countries increase their income levels and by highlighting factors which enable the shift to higher and qualitatively better growth. It questions how the large emerging economies in Asia such as China, Indonesia, and India are currently grappling with the challenges of transitioning from labour-intensive to technology- and knowledge-intensive production, and discusses what can be learnt from the countries that have been able to escape the trap to attain high-income status. Providing a conceptual framework for the Middle-Income Trap, this book will be of interest to students and scholars of Asian Economics, Comparative Economics and Asian Studies.

Author : Indermit Singh Gill,Homi J. Kharas,Deepak Bhattasali
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 386 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780821367483

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An East Asian Renaissance by Indermit Singh Gill,Homi J. Kharas,Deepak Bhattasali Pdf

An East Asian Renaissance, by a World Bank team led by Chief Economist for East Asia & Pacific, Dr Homi Kharas and Economic Adviser, Dr Indermit Gill is the first comprehensive analysis of the new forces and challenges at play in the region since the Bank's seminal report of 1993, The East Asian Miracle. The report argues that regional flows of goods, finance and technology are helping even smaller East Asian countries reap the benefits of economies of scale and that this regional integration must be encouraged. But it also points out that these measures have to be supported by actions at the domestic level to ease the stresses and strains that rapid economic growth leaves in its wake. East Asia must now turn to the urgent domestic challenges of inequality, social cohesion, corruption and environmental degradation arising from its economic success.

Author : Shaojie Zhou,Angang Hu
Publisher : Palgrave Macmillan
Page : 218 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2020-10-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9811565392

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China: Surpassing the “Middle Income Trap” by Shaojie Zhou,Angang Hu Pdf

This open access book explores one of the most fiercely debated issues in China: if and how China will surpass the middle income trap that has plagued many developing countries for years. This book gives readers a clear picture of China today and acts as a reference for other developing countries. China is facing many setbacks and experiencing an economic slowdown in recent years due to some serious issues, and income inequality is one such issue deferring China’s development potential by creating a middle income trap. This book thoroughly investigates both the unpromising factors and favorable conditions for China to overcome the trap. It illustrates that traps may be encountered at any stage of development and argues that political stability is the prerequisite to creating a favorable environment for economic development and addressing this “middle income trap”. Written by one of China's central planners, this book offers precious insights into the industrial policies that are transforming China and the world and will be of interest to China scholars, economists and political scientists.

Author : Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2015-06-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513556017

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The Leap of the Tiger by Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov Pdf

Only a few European economies and Korea and Taiwan Province of China reached high-income status during 1970-2010. Malaysia’s real income per capita increased to 26 percent of the U.S. level in 2010 from 20 percent in 1970. Despite relatively strong growth and a substantial improvement in export sophistication, Malaysia’s total factor productivity lagged behind that of Korea and Taiwan Province of China. We argue that what characterizes their experience in contrast to Malaysia’s is the creation of technologies by domestic firms and a push to leapfrog to the technological frontier at an early stage of development.

Author : Lant Pritchett
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 63 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 1998
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Patterns of Economic Growth by Lant Pritchett Pdf

Author : Mr.Shekhar Aiyar,Mr.Christian H Ebeke
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 23 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2019-02-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484396988

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Inequality of Opportunity, Inequality of Income and Economic Growth by Mr.Shekhar Aiyar,Mr.Christian H Ebeke Pdf

We posit that the relationship between income inequality and economic growth is mediated by the level of equality of opportunity, which we identify with intergenerational mobility. In economies characterized by intergenerational rigidities, an increase in income inequality has persistent effects—for example by hindering human capital accumulation— thereby retarding future growth disproportionately. We use several recently developed internationally comparable measures of intergenerational mobility to confirm that the negative impact of income inequality on growth is higher the lower is intergenerational mobility. Our results suggest that omitting intergenerational mobility leads to misspecification, shedding light on why the empirical literature on income inequality and growth has been so inconclusive.

Author : Patrick A. Imam,Jonathan R. W. Temple
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2024-04-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400274855

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At the Threshold: The Increasing Relevance of the Middle-Income Trap by Patrick A. Imam,Jonathan R. W. Temple Pdf

We investigate the existence of a middle-income trap using finite state Markov chains, constant growth thresholds, and mean passage times. As well as studying output per head, we examine the dynamics of its proximate determinants: TFP, the capital-output ratio, and human capital. We find upwards mobility for the capital-output ratio and human capital, but not for relative TFP. The lack of upwards mobility in relative TFP, at least from an intermediate level, suggests that escaping the middle-income category can take many years, and such traps may become increasingly apparent in the years to come.

Author : Faisal H. Basri,Gatot Arya Putra
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2016
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 6028866172

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Escaping the Middle Income Trap in Indonesia by Faisal H. Basri,Gatot Arya Putra Pdf

Author : Fudan Development Institute
Publisher : Paths International Limited
Page : 300 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2021-08-31
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1844646106

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China and Latin America by Fudan Development Institute Pdf

The 'middle-income trap' (MIT) is a concept employed to discuss the phenomena of growth slowdowns of developing economies (Pruchnik and Zowczak, 2017). However, this concept habitually refers to those countries "that have experienced rapid growth, which enabled them to reach the status of a middle-income country but have not been able to finally catch up to the developed countries and achieve high-income status--instead they became caught in the middle-income range" (Glawe and Wagner, 2016). This book is a multidisciplinary analysis of the theme of MIT recovering experiences from both China and LACs. The different authors reflect from a different and complementary perspective of this problem, such as the fight against income inequality, the promotion of trade agreements, financing for development, and the role of multinational companies about MIT. The ultimate intention of the authors has been to increase the analysis in this topic from analyzing and contrasting the cases of China and LACs.

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2010-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455209453

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A Historical Public Debt Database by International Monetary Fund Pdf

This paper describes the compilation of the first truly comprehensive database on gross government debt-to-GDP ratios, covering nearly the entire IMF membership (174 countries) and spanning an exceptionally long time period. The database was constructed by bringing together a number of other datasets and information from original sources. For the most recent years, the data are linked to the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) database to facilitate regular updates. The paper discusses the evolution of debt-to-GDP ratios across country groups for several decades, episodes of debt spikes and reversals, and a pattern of negative correlation between debt and growth.

Author : Naoyuki Yoshino,Peter J. Morgan,Bihong Huang,Guanghua Wan
Publisher : Asian Development Bank
Page : 416 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2017-12-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 4899740794

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Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap in Asia by Naoyuki Yoshino,Peter J. Morgan,Bihong Huang,Guanghua Wan Pdf

Since many policymakers aspire to pull their countries out of the middle-income trap and into the ranks of high-income countries, they must understand the factors that hinder or support the transition. This book defines the middle-income trap and examines the roles of manufacturing, finance, and trade openness in achieving sustainable development. The book also explores the role of government policy in fostering growth in the People's Republic of China. A common theme is that such policies may have unforeseen side effects that undermine their effectiveness, including how the hukou registration system and land-use policy control the pace of urbanization.

Author : Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi
Publisher : Springer
Page : 298 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2018-06-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319790756

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International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi Pdf

This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

Author : Zhijie Zheng
Publisher : Palgrave Macmillan
Page : 645 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2021-10-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9811574030

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Middle-Income Trap by Zhijie Zheng Pdf

This book explores the essence of the middle-income trap based on two major perspectives, namely “economic transformation” and “social transformation”. China has experienced high-speed economic growth for nearly 40 years since the adoption of the Reform and Opening policies. However, China’s economic growth has been slowing down significantly in recent years. Has China tumbled into the middle-income trap? This book reveals the essence of the middle-income trap is that a country's economic growth is facing a "double squeeze" in the middle-income stage, while the social structure and system are unsuitable for the new social development stage, which leads to economic stagnation or recession, and the aggravation of social contradictions, that is, the double predicament of economic transformation and social transformation. This judgment is of great value for understanding the problems encountered in the current development of China.

Author : Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2015-06-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513590738

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The Leap of the Tiger by Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov Pdf

Only a few European economies and Korea and Taiwan Province of China reached high-income status during 1970-2010. Malaysia’s real income per capita increased to 26 percent of the U.S. level in 2010 from 20 percent in 1970. Despite relatively strong growth and a substantial improvement in export sophistication, Malaysia’s total factor productivity lagged behind that of Korea and Taiwan Province of China. We argue that what characterizes their experience in contrast to Malaysia’s is the creation of technologies by domestic firms and a push to leapfrog to the technological frontier at an early stage of development.