At The Threshold The Increasing Relevance Of The Middle Income Trap
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Author : Patrick A. Imam,Jonathan R. W. Temple Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 45 pages File Size : 50,6 Mb Release : 2024-04-26 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9798400274855
At the Threshold: The Increasing Relevance of the Middle-Income Trap by Patrick A. Imam,Jonathan R. W. Temple Pdf
We investigate the existence of a middle-income trap using finite state Markov chains, constant growth thresholds, and mean passage times. As well as studying output per head, we examine the dynamics of its proximate determinants: TFP, the capital-output ratio, and human capital. We find upwards mobility for the capital-output ratio and human capital, but not for relative TFP. The lack of upwards mobility in relative TFP, at least from an intermediate level, suggests that escaping the middle-income category can take many years, and such traps may become increasingly apparent in the years to come.
Trapped in the Middle? by José Antonio Alonso,José Antonio Ocampo Pdf
There is growing evidence that overcoming the low-income threshold and reaching middle-income status is not sufficient for countries to converge toward high-income levels. Few middle-income countries have successfully completed that transit in recent decades, with the majority remaining in the middle-income group, and so facing what has come to be called "the middle-income trap". It is therefore essential to explore whether middle-income traps really exist and, if they do, how these pitfalls are manifested, what their causes are, what economic policy measures are required to escape from them, and what international cooperation can do to support this process. Trapped in the Middle? brings together diverse perspectives on these important questions, providing new evidence and analytical approaches to enrich the debate on the domestic and international challenges faced by a significant number of middle-income countries, in which over three-quarters of the global population live.
China: Surpassing the “Middle Income Trap” by Shaojie Zhou,Angang Hu Pdf
This open access book explores one of the most fiercely debated issues in China: if and how China will surpass the middle income trap that has plagued many developing countries for years. This book gives readers a clear picture of China today and acts as a reference for other developing countries. China is facing many setbacks and experiencing an economic slowdown in recent years due to some serious issues, and income inequality is one such issue deferring China’s development potential by creating a middle income trap. This book thoroughly investigates both the unpromising factors and favorable conditions for China to overcome the trap. It illustrates that traps may be encountered at any stage of development and argues that political stability is the prerequisite to creating a favorable environment for economic development and addressing this “middle income trap”. Written by one of China's central planners, this book offers precious insights into the industrial policies that are transforming China and the world and will be of interest to China scholars, economists and political scientists.
Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap by Mr.Shekhar Aiyar,Mr.Romain A Duval,Mr.Damien Puy,Mr.Yiqun Wu,Ms.Longmei Zhang Pdf
The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns, which are identified as large sudden and sustained deviations from the growth path predicted by a basic conditional convergence framework. We then examine their determinants by means of probit regressions, looking into the role of institutions, demography, infrastructure, the macroeconomic environment, output structure and trade structure. Two variants of Bayesian Model Averaging are used as robustness checks. The results—including some that indeed speak to the special status of middle-income countries—are then used to derive policy implications, with a particular focus on Asian economies.
An East Asian Renaissance by Indermit Singh Gill,Homi J. Kharas,Deepak Bhattasali Pdf
An East Asian Renaissance, by a World Bank team led by Chief Economist for East Asia & Pacific, Dr Homi Kharas and Economic Adviser, Dr Indermit Gill is the first comprehensive analysis of the new forces and challenges at play in the region since the Bank's seminal report of 1993, The East Asian Miracle. The report argues that regional flows of goods, finance and technology are helping even smaller East Asian countries reap the benefits of economies of scale and that this regional integration must be encouraged. But it also points out that these measures have to be supported by actions at the domestic level to ease the stresses and strains that rapid economic growth leaves in its wake. East Asia must now turn to the urgent domestic challenges of inequality, social cohesion, corruption and environmental degradation arising from its economic success.
Naoyuki Yoshino,Peter J. Morgan,Bihong Huang,Guanghua Wan
Author : Naoyuki Yoshino,Peter J. Morgan,Bihong Huang,Guanghua Wan Publisher : Asian Development Bank Page : 416 pages File Size : 46,9 Mb Release : 2017-12-26 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 4899740794
Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap in Asia by Naoyuki Yoshino,Peter J. Morgan,Bihong Huang,Guanghua Wan Pdf
Since many policymakers aspire to pull their countries out of the middle-income trap and into the ranks of high-income countries, they must understand the factors that hinder or support the transition. This book defines the middle-income trap and examines the roles of manufacturing, finance, and trade openness in achieving sustainable development. The book also explores the role of government policy in fostering growth in the People's Republic of China. A common theme is that such policies may have unforeseen side effects that undermine their effectiveness, including how the hukou registration system and land-use policy control the pace of urbanization.
Poverty Traps by Samuel Bowles,Steven N. Durlauf,Karla Hoff Pdf
Much popular belief--and public policy--rests on the idea that those born into poverty have it in their power to escape. But the persistence of poverty and ever-growing economic inequality around the world have led many economists to seriously question the model of individual economic self-determination when it comes to the poor. In Poverty Traps, Samuel Bowles, Steven Durlauf, Karla Hoff, and the book's other contributors argue that there are many conditions that may trap individuals, groups, and whole economies in intractable poverty. For the first time the editors have brought together the perspectives of economics, economic history, and sociology to assess what we know--and don't know--about such traps. Among the sources of the poverty of nations, the authors assign a primary role to social and political institutions, ranging from corruption to seemingly benign social customs such as kin systems. Many of the institutions that keep nations poor have deep roots in colonial history and persist long after their initial causes are gone. Neighborhood effects--influences such as networks, role models, and aspirations--can create hard-to-escape pockets of poverty even in rich countries. Similar individuals in dissimilar socioeconomic environments develop different preferences and beliefs that can transmit poverty or affluence from generation to generation. The book presents evidence of harmful neighborhood effects and discusses policies to overcome them, with attention to the uncertainty that exists in evaluating such policies.
The Leap of the Tiger by Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov Pdf
Only a few European economies and Korea and Taiwan Province of China reached high-income status during 1970-2010. Malaysia’s real income per capita increased to 26 percent of the U.S. level in 2010 from 20 percent in 1970. Despite relatively strong growth and a substantial improvement in export sophistication, Malaysia’s total factor productivity lagged behind that of Korea and Taiwan Province of China. We argue that what characterizes their experience in contrast to Malaysia’s is the creation of technologies by domestic firms and a push to leapfrog to the technological frontier at an early stage of development.
Emerging States and Economies by Takashi Shiraishi,Tetsushi Sonobe Pdf
This open access book asks why and how some of the developing countries have “emerged” under a set of similar global conditions, what led individual countries to choose the particular paths that led to their “emergence,” and what challenges confront them. If we are to understand the nature of major risks and uncertainties in the world, we must look squarely at the political and economic dynamics of emerging states, such as China, India, Brazil, Russia, and ASEAN countries. Their rapid economic development has changed the distribution of wealth and power in the world. Yet many of them have middle income status. To global governance issues, they tend to adopt approaches that differ from those of advanced industrialized democracies. At home, rapid economic growth and social changes put pressure on their institutions to change. This volume traces the historical trajectories of two major emerging states, China and India, and two city states, Hong Kong and Singapore. It also analyzes cross-country data to find the general patterns of economic development and sociopolitical change in relation to globalization and to the middle income trap.
Introduction to Modern Economic Growth by Daron Acemoglu Pdf
Introduction to Modern Economic Growth is a groundbreaking text from one of today's leading economists. Daron Acemoglu gives graduate students not only the tools to analyze growth and related macroeconomic problems, but also the broad perspective needed to apply those tools to the big-picture questions of growth and divergence. And he introduces the economic and mathematical foundations of modern growth theory and macroeconomics in a rigorous but easy to follow manner. After covering the necessary background on dynamic general equilibrium and dynamic optimization, the book presents the basic workhorse models of growth and takes students to the frontier areas of growth theory, including models of human capital, endogenous technological change, technology transfer, international trade, economic development, and political economy. The book integrates these theories with data and shows how theoretical approaches can lead to better perspectives on the fundamental causes of economic growth and the wealth of nations. Innovative and authoritative, this book is likely to shape how economic growth is taught and learned for years to come. Introduces all the foundations for understanding economic growth and dynamic macroeconomic analysis Focuses on the big-picture questions of economic growth Provides mathematical foundations Presents dynamic general equilibrium Covers models such as basic Solow, neoclassical growth, and overlapping generations, as well as models of endogenous technology and international linkages Addresses frontier research areas such as international linkages, international trade, political economy, and economic development and structural change An accompanying Student Solutions Manual containing the answers to selected exercises is available (978-0-691-14163-3/$24.95). See: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/8970.html. For Professors only: To access a complete solutions manual online, email us at: [email protected]
Increasing Productivity Growth in Middle Income Countries by Aidar Abdychev,La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul,Mr.Andrew W Jonelis,Mr.Lamin Leigh,Ashwin Moheeput,Friska Parulian,Ara Stepanyan,Albert Touna Mama Pdf
Many small middle-income countries (SMICs) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have experienced a moderation in growth in recent years. Although factor accumulation, most notably capital deepening, was crucial to the success of many SMICs historically, this growth model appears to have run its course. The analysis in this paper suggests that the decline in the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth is largely responsible for the slowdown in trend growth in many SMICs, which highlights the need for policy actions to reinvigorate productivity growth. This paper explores the question of what kind of structural policies could boost productivity growth in SMICs and the political economy factors that may be contributing to the slow implementation of these critical reforms in these countries. The findings suggest that although macroeconomic stability and trade openness are necessary for productivity growth, they are not sufficient. SMICs need to improve the quality of their public spending, most notably in education to minimize the skill mismatch in the labor market, reduce the regulatory burden on firms, improve access to finance by small and medium-sized enterprises and create the enabling environment to facilitate structural transformation in these economies.
The Two-Income Trap by Elizabeth Warren,Amelia Warren Tyagi Pdf
From #1 New York Times bestselling author Senator Elizabeth Warren and consultant Amelia Warren Tyagi, the classic book about America's middle class -- and why economic security remains out of reach for many. In this exposé, Elizabeth Warren and Amelia Warren Tyagi show that modern middle-class families are increasingly trapped by the grinding reality of flat wages and rising costs. Warren and Tyagi reveal how a ferocious bidding war for housing and education has silently engulfed America's suburbs, driving up the cost of keeping families in the middle class, and placing unprecedented pressure on hard-working families. Revolutionary when it was first published in 2003, The Two-Income Trap remains disturbingly relevant today. Now with a new introduction by the authors, The Two Income Trap shows why the usual remedies won't solve the problem and points toward the policy changes that would create better opportunities for both parents and children.
Inequality and Growth by Theo S. Eicher,Stephen J. Turnovsky Pdf
Even minute increases in a country's growth rate can result in dramatic changes in living standards over just one generation. The benefits of growth, however, may not be shared equally. Some may gain less than others, and a fraction of the population may actually be disadvantaged. Recent economic research has found both positive and negative relationships between growth and inequality across nations. The questions raised by these results include: What is the impact on inequality of policies designed to foster growth? Does inequality by itself facilitate or detract from economic growth, and does it amplify or diminish policy effectiveness? This book provides a forum for economists to examine the theoretical, empirical, and policy issues involved in the relationship between growth and inequality. The aim is to develop a framework for determining the role of public policy in enhancing both growth and equality. The diverse range of topics, examined in both developed and developing countries, includes natural resources, taxation, fertility, redistribution, technological change, transition, labor markets, and education. A theme common to all the essays is the importance of education in reducing inequality and increasing growth.
This book proposes a new, pragmatic way of approaching economic development which features policy learning based on a comparison of international best policy practices. While the important role of government in promoting private sector development is being recognized, policy discussion often remains general without details as to what exactly to do and how to avoid common pitfalls. This book fills the gap by showing concrete policy contents, procedures, and organizations adopted in high-performing East Asian economies. Natural resources and foreign aid and investment can take a country to a certain income level, but growth stalls when given advantages are exhausted. Economies will be caught in middle income traps if growth impetus is not internally generated. Meanwhile, countries that have soared to high income introduced mindset, policies, and institutions that encouraged, or even forced, accumulation of human capital – skills, technology, and knowledge. How this can be done systematically is the main topic of policy learning. However, government should not randomly adopt what Singapore or Taiwan did in the past. A continued march to prosperity is possible only when policy makers acquire capability to formulate policy suitable for local context after studying a number of international experiences. Developing countries wanting to adopt effective industrial strategies but not knowing where to start will benefit greatly by the ideas and hands-on examples presented by the author. Students of development economics will find a new methodological perspective which can supplement the ongoing industrial policy debate. The book also gives an excellent account of national pride and pragmatism exhibited by officials in East Asia who produced remarkable economic growth, as well as serious effort by an African country to emulate this miracle. The Open Access version of this book, available at http://www.taylorfrancis.com/doi/view/10.4324/9780203085530 has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.