Growth Surprises And Synchronized Slowdowns In Emerging Markets An Empirical Investigation

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Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets––An Empirical Investigation

Ms.Ghada Fayad,Mr.Roberto Perrelli
Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets An Empirical Investigation Book PDF

Author : Ms.Ghada Fayad,Mr.Roberto Perrelli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 24 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2014-09-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498335836

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Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets––An Empirical Investigation by Ms.Ghada Fayad,Mr.Roberto Perrelli Pdf

Output growth has slowed in several emerging markets since 2011—a remarkable feature for a non-crisis period in EMs. Such synchronized slowdowns were largely unanticipated by scholars and forecasters alike. In this paper we attempt to shed light on the main drivers of growth surprises and synchronized slowdowns in emerging markets post-global financial crisis. We find that lower trading partner demand was a key external factor in explaining these events during 2011–13, and that changes in external financing conditions have yet to play a role in EMs’ growth. On the domestic front, the withdrawal of the fiscal stimulus put in place right after the Lehman collapse is a relevant aspect in these episodes, compounding the effect of the weaker external demand. Idiosyncratic factors, such as structural bottlenecks with the potential to impair growth in a more lasting fashion, also seem to partly explain these events, as reflected in the larger residuals found in regression-based estimates for certain countries.

Slowdown in Emerging Markets

Ms.Evridiki Tsounta
Slowdown in Emerging Markets Book PDF

Author : Ms.Evridiki Tsounta
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 23 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2014-11-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498304719

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Slowdown in Emerging Markets by Ms.Evridiki Tsounta Pdf

Following very strong growth during the period 2000–12, emerging market economies (EMEs) experienced a slowdown in the last couple of years. This paper examines the supply-side drivers of the strong growth performance of 63 EMEs and investigates if the recent slowdown in growth is transitory or a more permanent phenomenon. We find that on average the recent slowdown is explained equally by structural and cyclical factors, although there are large variations across countries and regions. While the cyclical component of the slowdown can be corrected by countercyclical policies (provided that there is sufficient policy space), structural bottlenecks are harder to address. Given the expected moderation of capital accumulation and some natural constraints on labor, the strong growth momentum of 2000–12 is unlikely to be repeated going forward, unless TFP performance improves significantly via structural reforms.

Emerging Markets in Transition

Mr.Luis M. Cubeddu,Mr.Alexander Culiuc,Ms.Ghada Fayad,MissYuan Gao,Ms.Kalpana Kochhar,Ms.Annette J Kyobe,Ceyda Oner,Mr.Roberto Perrelli,Sarah Sanya,Ms.Evridiki Tsounta,Mr.Zhongxia Zhang
Emerging Markets in Transition Book PDF

Author : Mr.Luis M. Cubeddu,Mr.Alexander Culiuc,Ms.Ghada Fayad,MissYuan Gao,Ms.Kalpana Kochhar,Ms.Annette J Kyobe,Ceyda Oner,Mr.Roberto Perrelli,Sarah Sanya,Ms.Evridiki Tsounta,Mr.Zhongxia Zhang
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2014-06-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498327664

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Emerging Markets in Transition by Mr.Luis M. Cubeddu,Mr.Alexander Culiuc,Ms.Ghada Fayad,MissYuan Gao,Ms.Kalpana Kochhar,Ms.Annette J Kyobe,Ceyda Oner,Mr.Roberto Perrelli,Sarah Sanya,Ms.Evridiki Tsounta,Mr.Zhongxia Zhang Pdf

After a short-lived slowdown in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis and a swift rebound, emerging markets (EM) are now entering a period of slower growth. In fact, growth is now lower than the post-crisis peak of 2010-11, as well as the rates seen in the decade before the crisis. This raises the question of whether EMs can bounce back to the growth rates seen in the last decade or whether their prospects are dimmer than thought a few years ago. This SDN we will explore the drivers of the slowdown, how changes in external conditions that supported high growth in EMs will affect them over the medium term, and the policy priorities needed to sustain the growth rates seen in the past decades. In doing so, the paper differentiates EMs along various dimensions (e.g. degree of commodity dependence, trade and financial openness) to highlight the need to tailor policy priorities.

Global Financial Crisis and Its Ramifications on Capital Markets

Ümit Hacioğlu,Hasan Dinçer
Global Financial Crisis and Its Ramifications on Capital Markets Book PDF

Author : Ümit Hacioğlu,Hasan Dinçer
Publisher : Springer
Page : 659 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2017-01-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319470214

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Global Financial Crisis and Its Ramifications on Capital Markets by Ümit Hacioğlu,Hasan Dinçer Pdf

This book assesses the 2008-2009 financial crisis and its ramifications for the global economy from a multidisciplinary perspective. Current market conditions and systemic issues pose a risk to financial stability and sustained market access for emerging market borrowers. The volatile environment in the financial system became the source of major threats and some opportunities such as takeovers, mergers and acquisitions for international business operations. This volume is divided into six sections. The first evaluates the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis and its impacts on Global Economic Activity, examining the financial crisis in historical context, the economic slowdown, transmission of the crisis from advanced economies to emerging markets, and spillovers. The second section evaluates global imbalances, especially financial instability and the economic outlook for selected regional economies, while the third focuses on international financial institutions and fiscal policy applications. The fourth section analyzes the capital market mechanism, price fluctuations and global trade activity, while the fifth builds on new trends and business cycles to derive effective strategies and solutions for international entrepreneurship and business. In closing, the final section explores the road to economic recovery and stability by assessing the current outlook and fiscal strategies.

Emerging Market Heterogeneity

Mr.Zhongxia Zhang,MissYuan Gao
Emerging Market Heterogeneity Book PDF

Author : Mr.Zhongxia Zhang,MissYuan Gao
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2015-07-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513587622

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Emerging Market Heterogeneity by Mr.Zhongxia Zhang,MissYuan Gao Pdf

This paper studies growth patterns in Emerging Market Economies (EMs) from the perspective on clusters and taxonomies. First, it documents developments over the past five decades in EMs and uses a cluster analysis to better understand convergence and the investment-growth nexus. Second, it looks at the performance of EMs since 2000 and develops a taxonomy to classify countries according to their factor endowments as well as their real and financial external linkages. The taxonomy offers insights on growth dynamics pre and post the global financial crisis. Results highlight the high degree of heterogeneity in EMs and the need for more granular and targeted near and long-term policy advice.

The New Industrial World

Livio Romano,Fabrizio Traù
The New Industrial World Book PDF

Author : Livio Romano,Fabrizio Traù
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 209 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2023-11-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780192873873

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The New Industrial World by Livio Romano,Fabrizio Traù Pdf

In The New Industrial World: Manufacturing Development in the Course of the Globalization Age, Romano and Traù analyse industrial development, focussing upon the spreading of manufacturing activities beyond the boundaries of the advanced economies. They explain how this event has completely changed the nature of the relationship between the 'North' and the 'South' of the world, linking them together for the very first time on productive grounds through the development of global value chains. Providing an overall account of the reasons for the Globalization Age to rise and, in later years, to fall, the authors offer a new interpretation of the relationship between globalization and the upsurge of industrialization outside the advanced world, highlighting the role played by industrial policy in the building of manufacturing capabilities in emerging countries. Starting with the great financial crisis that hit the world at the end of the first decade of the 2000s, Romano and Traù explain how a 'new normal' has emerged, the basic features of which can be found in a slowdown of manufacturing growth rates, and in the comeback of distance as a key determinant of economic behaviour (also in light of the upsurge, in later years, of exogenous shocks such as the pandemic and Russian-Ukrainian war).

IMF Research Bulletin, December 2014

International Monetary Fund
IMF Research Bulletin December 2014 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 17 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2015-09-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513556956

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IMF Research Bulletin, December 2014 by International Monetary Fund Pdf

The December 2015 IMF Research Bulletin features a sampling of key research from the IMF. The Research Summaries in this issue look at “The Impact of Deflation and Lowflation on Fiscal Aggregates (Nicolas End, Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba, Gilbert Terrier, and Renaud Duplay); and “Oil Exporters at the Crossroads: It Is High Time to Diversify” (Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov). Mahvash Saeed Qureshi provides an overview of the fifth Lindau Meeting in Economics in “Meeting the Nobel Giants.” In the Q&A column on “Seven Questions on Financial Frictions and the Sources of the Business Cycle, Marzie Taheri Sanjani looks at the driving forces of the business cycle and macroeconomic models. The top-viewed articles in 2014 from the IMF Economic Review are highlighted, along with recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and IMF publications.

The Rise and Fall of Nations: Forces of Change in the Post-Crisis World

Ruchir Sharma
The Rise and Fall of Nations Forces of Change in the Post Crisis World Book PDF

Author : Ruchir Sharma
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
Page : 352 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2016-06-06
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780393248906

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The Rise and Fall of Nations: Forces of Change in the Post-Crisis World by Ruchir Sharma Pdf

International Bestseller "Quite simply the best guide to the global economy today." —Fareed Zakaria Shaped by his twenty-five years traveling the world, and enlivened by encounters with villagers from Rio to Beijing, tycoons, and presidents, Ruchir Sharma’s The Rise and Fall of Nations rethinks the "dismal science" of economics as a practical art. Narrowing the thousands of factors that can shape a country’s fortunes to ten clear rules, Sharma explains how to spot political, economic, and social changes in real time. He shows how to read political headlines, black markets, the price of onions, and billionaire rankings as signals of booms, busts, and protests. Set in a post-crisis age that has turned the world upside down, replacing fast growth with slow growth and political calm with revolt, Sharma’s pioneering book is an entertaining field guide to understanding change in this era or any era.

Emerging Market Volatility

Ms.Ratna Sahay,Mr.Vivek B. Arora,Mr.Athanasios V Arvanitis,Mr.Hamid Faruqee,Mr.Papa N'Diaye,Mr.Tommaso Mancini Griffoli
Emerging Market Volatility Book PDF

Author : Ms.Ratna Sahay,Mr.Vivek B. Arora,Mr.Athanasios V Arvanitis,Mr.Hamid Faruqee,Mr.Papa N'Diaye,Mr.Tommaso Mancini Griffoli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2014-10-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484356005

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Emerging Market Volatility by Ms.Ratna Sahay,Mr.Vivek B. Arora,Mr.Athanasios V Arvanitis,Mr.Hamid Faruqee,Mr.Papa N'Diaye,Mr.Tommaso Mancini Griffoli Pdf

Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that their domestic economic activity has slowed. This paper examines their experiences and policy responses and draws broad policy lessons. For emerging markets, good macroeconomic fundamentals matter, and early and decisive measures to strengthen macroeconomic policies and reduce vulnerabilities help dampen market reactions to external shocks. For advanced economies, clear and effective communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility.

Emerging Markets

Eswar S. Prasad,Ayhan Kose
Emerging Markets Book PDF

Author : Eswar S. Prasad,Ayhan Kose
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Page : 225 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2011-02-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780815705659

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Emerging Markets by Eswar S. Prasad,Ayhan Kose Pdf

Emerging market economies (EMEs) have become the darlings of international investors and the focus of enormous attention in academic, media, and policy circles. M. Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad present the definitive account of the evolution of EMEs and use the lens of the global financial crisis to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses. Led by a set of large and dynamic countries—including Brazil, China, India, and Russia—EMEs have become a dominant presence in the world economy. They now account for a substantial share of world output and have been a major driver of global growth during the past decade. They are significant players in international trade and financial flows and are beginning to exert rising clout in global policy debates. However, the financial crisis of 2007–09 and the worldwide recession that followed cast a pall over the notion that EMEs had become self-reliant and "decoupled" from demand conditions in and financial flows from advanced countries. Kose and Prasad, prominent experts on emerging market economies and globalization, draw on their extensive research to assess the resilience of EMEs in the face of the global financial crisis. Their analysis shows that EMEs, as a group, weathered the crisis much better than the advanced countries, and most of these economies have bounced back rapidly from the global recession. The authors track down the reasons for this resilience and explain why some countries in this group have done better than others. Based on this analysis, they draw lessons for the durability and sustainability of these economies' long-term growth. This book is important reading for anyone trying to anticipate the future growth of emerging markets or contemplating business opportunities in these economies.

Global Waves of Debt

M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara
Global Waves of Debt Book PDF

Author : M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 403 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2021-03-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464815454

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Global Waves of Debt by M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara Pdf

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies

Jongrim Ha,M. Ayhan Kose,Franziska Ohnsorge
Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies Book PDF

Author : Jongrim Ha,M. Ayhan Kose,Franziska Ohnsorge
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 513 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2019-02-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464813764

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Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies by Jongrim Ha,M. Ayhan Kose,Franziska Ohnsorge Pdf

This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

A Decade after the Global Recession

M. Ayhan Kose,Franziska Ohnsorge
A Decade after the Global Recession Book PDF

Author : M. Ayhan Kose,Franziska Ohnsorge
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 475 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2021-03-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464815287

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A Decade after the Global Recession by M. Ayhan Kose,Franziska Ohnsorge Pdf

This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well, in part by using the sizable fiscal and monetary policy ammunition accumulated during prior years of strong growth. However, their growth prospects have weakened since then, and many now have less policy space. This study provides the first comprehensive stocktaking of the past decade from the perspective of emerging market and developing economies. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks. The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and prepare for the possibility of another global downturn.

Global Economic Prospects, January 2016

WorldBank
Global Economic Prospects January 2016 Book PDF

Author : WorldBank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 284 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2016-01-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464806766

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Global Economic Prospects, January 2016 by WorldBank Pdf

The January 2016 edition of Global Economic Prospects discusses current global and regional economic developments and prospects, analyzing key challenges and opportunities confronting developing countries. This volume addresses, among other topics, spillovers from large emerging markets and macroeconomic vulnerabilities during resource development. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. Semiannually (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi
International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis Book PDF

Author : Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi
Publisher : Springer
Page : 298 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2018-06-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319790756

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International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi Pdf

This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.