How To Assess Fiscal Implications Of Demographic Shifts
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How to Assess Fiscal Implications of Demographic Shifts by Mr.David Amaglobeli,Wei Shi Pdf
Over the next few decades, the world will experience significant demographic shifts, with material fiscal implications. In many advanced and emerging market economies, aging populations will lead to higher spending on pensions and health care. Moreover, projected population dynamics will adversely affect growth and government revenues. Building on and extending a 2015 IMF Staff Discussion Note by Clements and others, this note presents a simple framework that can assist researchers in quantifying the effects of demographic changes resulting from population aging on government fiscal balances. It includes two country applications of the framework and an associated template. The note addresses several key questions: What are channels through which demographic changes could affect public finances? How can we quantify the fiscal impact of demographic changes? How can we tailor the assessment to country-specific circumstances?
Demographic Change and Economic Well-Being by International Monetary Fund. Communications Department Pdf
This paper discusses the role of fiscal policy and demographics. By the end of this century, about two-thirds of all countries are expected to have declining populations. This will have profound implications for economics, financial markets, social stability, and geopolitics. Fiscal policy responses and technological innovation are especially important parts of the solution. Without action, public pension and health systems will not be sustainable over the long term. The increase in life expectancy and economic welfare that came with the industrial revolution brought with it the seeds of demographic change. This is a demographic double whammy that will have major implications for economic growth, financial stability, and the public purse. With declining fertility rates, populations in some advanced economies did not just grow more slowly; they stagnated or began to shrink. IMF analysis suggests that, if everyone lived three years longer than expected, pension related costs could increase by 50 percent in both advanced and emerging economies. This would heavily affect private and public sector balance sheets and could also undermine financial stability.
Alan J. Auerbach,Robert D Burch Professor of Economics and Law and Director Burch Center for Tax Policy and Public Finance Alan J Auerbach,Ronald D. Lee
Author : Alan J. Auerbach,Robert D Burch Professor of Economics and Law and Director Burch Center for Tax Policy and Public Finance Alan J Auerbach,Ronald D. Lee Publisher : Cambridge University Press Page : 476 pages File Size : 47,7 Mb Release : 2001-02-26 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 0521662443
Demographic Change and Fiscal Policy by Alan J. Auerbach,Robert D Burch Professor of Economics and Law and Director Burch Center for Tax Policy and Public Finance Alan J Auerbach,Ronald D. Lee Pdf
An analyses the effect of changing demography in the US and elsewhere on tax revenues and public programmes.
Institute of Medicine,Committee on the Adequacy of Nursing Staff in Hospitals and Nursing Homes
Author : Institute of Medicine,Committee on the Adequacy of Nursing Staff in Hospitals and Nursing Homes Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 558 pages File Size : 46,7 Mb Release : 1996-03-27 Category : Medical ISBN : 9780309175708
Nursing Staff in Hospitals and Nursing Homes by Institute of Medicine,Committee on the Adequacy of Nursing Staff in Hospitals and Nursing Homes Pdf
Hospitals and nursing homes are responding to changes in the health care system by modifying staffing levels and the mix of nursing personnel. But do these changes endanger the quality of patient care? Do nursing staff suffer increased rates of injury, illness, or stress because of changing workplace demands? These questions are addressed in Nursing Staff in Hospitals and Nursing Homes, a thorough and authoritative look at today's health care system that also takes a long-term view of staffing needs for nursing as the nation moves into the next century. The committee draws fundamental conclusions about the evolving role of nurses in hospitals and nursing homes and presents recommendations about staffing decisions, nursing training, measurement of quality, reimbursement, and other areas. The volume also discusses work-related injuries, violence toward and abuse of nursing staffs, and stress among nursing personnelâ€"and examines whether these problems are related to staffing levels. Included is a readable overview of the underlying trends in health care that have given rise to urgent questions about nurse staffing: population changes, budget pressures, and the introduction of new technologies. Nursing Staff in Hospitals and Nursing Homes provides a straightforward examination of complex and sensitive issues surround the role and value of nursing on our health care system.
Understanding Financial Accounts seeks to show how a range of questions on financial developments can be answered with the framework of financial accounts and balance sheets, by providing non-technical explanations illustrated with practical examples.
National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications,Committee on the Long-Run Macroeconomic Effects of the Aging U.S. Population
Author : National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications,Committee on the Long-Run Macroeconomic Effects of the Aging U.S. Population Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 230 pages File Size : 54,7 Mb Release : 2013-01-10 Category : Social Science ISBN : 9780309261968
Aging and the Macroeconomy by National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications,Committee on the Long-Run Macroeconomic Effects of the Aging U.S. Population Pdf
The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.
The Great Demographic Reversal by Charles Goodhart,Manoj Pradhan Pdf
This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.
Author : International Monetary Fund Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 60 pages File Size : 47,9 Mb Release : 2020-06-01 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781513543666
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on National Statistics,Panel on the Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on National Statistics,Panel on the Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 643 pages File Size : 53,7 Mb Release : 2017-07-13 Category : Social Science ISBN : 9780309444453
The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on National Statistics,Panel on the Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration Pdf
The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration finds that the long-term impact of immigration on the wages and employment of native-born workers overall is very small, and that any negative impacts are most likely to be found for prior immigrants or native-born high school dropouts. First-generation immigrants are more costly to governments than are the native-born, but the second generation are among the strongest fiscal and economic contributors in the U.S. This report concludes that immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S. More than 40 million people living in the United States were born in other countries, and almost an equal number have at least one foreign-born parent. Together, the first generation (foreign-born) and second generation (children of the foreign-born) comprise almost one in four Americans. It comes as little surprise, then, that many U.S. residents view immigration as a major policy issue facing the nation. Not only does immigration affect the environment in which everyone lives, learns, and works, but it also interacts with nearly every policy area of concern, from jobs and the economy, education, and health care, to federal, state, and local government budgets. The changing patterns of immigration and the evolving consequences for American society, institutions, and the economy continue to fuel public policy debate that plays out at the national, state, and local levels. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration assesses the impact of dynamic immigration processes on economic and fiscal outcomes for the United States, a major destination of world population movements. This report will be a fundamental resource for policy makers and law makers at the federal, state, and local levels but extends to the general public, nongovernmental organizations, the business community, educational institutions, and the research community.
Author : Martin C. Libicki,Howard J. Shatz,Julie E. Taylor Publisher : Rand Corporation Page : 180 pages File Size : 44,7 Mb Release : 2011-07-18 Category : Social Science ISBN : 9780833052452
Global Demographic Change and Its Implications for Military Power by Martin C. Libicki,Howard J. Shatz,Julie E. Taylor Pdf
What is the impact of demographics on the prospective production of military power and the causes of war? This monograph analyzes this issue by projecting working-age populations through 2050; assessing the influence of demographics on manpower, national income and expenditures, and human capital; and examining how changes in these factors may affect the ability of states to carry out military missions.
National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population
Author : National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 424 pages File Size : 43,9 Mb Release : 1994-02-01 Category : Social Science ISBN : 9780309050852
Demography of Aging by National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population Pdf
As the United States and the rest of the world face the unprecedented challenge of aging populations, this volume draws together for the first time state-of-the-art work from the emerging field of the demography of aging. The nine chapters, written by experts from a variety of disciplines, highlight data sources and research approaches, results, and proposed strategies on a topic with major policy implications for labor forces, economic well-being, health care, and the need for social and family supports.
Following Grawe's seminal first book, this volume answers the question: How can a college or university prepare for forecasted demographic disruptions? Demographic changes promise to reshape the market for higher education in the next 15 years. Colleges are already grappling with the consequences of declining family size due to low birth rates brought on by the Great Recession, as well as the continuing shift toward minority student populations. Each institution faces a distinct market context with unique organizational strengths; no one-size-fits-all answer could suffice. In this essential follow-up to Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Nathan D. Grawe explores how proactive institutions are preparing for the resulting challenges that lie ahead. While it isn't possible to reverse the demographic tide, most institutions, he argues persuasively, can mitigate the effects. Drawing on interviews with higher education leaders, Grawe explores successful avenues of response, including • recruitment initiatives • retention programs • revisions to the academic and cocurricular program • institutional growth plans • retrenchment efforts • collaborative action Throughout, Grawe presents readers with examples taken from a range of institutions—small and large, public and private, two-year and four-year, selective and open-access. While an effective response to demographic change must reflect the individual campus context, the cases Grawe analyzes will prompt conversations about the best paths forward. The Agile College also extends projections for higher education demand. Using data from the High School Longitudinal Study, the book updates prior work by incorporating new information on college-going after the Great Recession and pushes forecasts into the mid-2030s. What's more, the analysis expands to examine additional aspects of the higher education market, such as dual enrollment, transfer students, and the role of immigration in college demand.
National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population,Panel on the Demographic and Economic Impacts of Immigration
Author : National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population,Panel on the Demographic and Economic Impacts of Immigration Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 449 pages File Size : 45,7 Mb Release : 1997-11-14 Category : Social Science ISBN : 9780309063562
The New Americans by National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population,Panel on the Demographic and Economic Impacts of Immigration Pdf
This book sheds light on one of the most controversial issues of the decade. It identifies the economic gains and losses from immigrationâ€"for the nation, states, and local areasâ€"and provides a foundation for public discussion and policymaking. Three key questions are explored: What is the influence of immigration on the overall economy, especially national and regional labor markets? What are the overall effects of immigration on federal, state, and local government budgets? What effects will immigration have on the future size and makeup of the nation's population over the next 50 years? The New Americans examines what immigrants gain by coming to the United States and what they contribute to the country, the skills of immigrants and those of native-born Americans, the experiences of immigrant women and other groups, and much more. It offers examples of how to measure the impact of immigration on government revenues and expendituresâ€"estimating one year's fiscal impact in California, New Jersey, and the United States and projecting the long-run fiscal effects on government revenues and expenditures. Also included is background information on immigration policies and practices and data on where immigrants come from, what they do in America, and how they will change the nation's social fabric in the decades to come.
Global Trends 2040 by National Intelligence Council Pdf
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Institute of Medicine,Board on Health Promotion and Disease Prevention,Committee on Assuring the Health of the Public in the 21st Century
Author : Institute of Medicine,Board on Health Promotion and Disease Prevention,Committee on Assuring the Health of the Public in the 21st Century Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 536 pages File Size : 49,7 Mb Release : 2003-02-01 Category : Medical ISBN : 9780309133180
The Future of the Public's Health in the 21st Century by Institute of Medicine,Board on Health Promotion and Disease Prevention,Committee on Assuring the Health of the Public in the 21st Century Pdf
The anthrax incidents following the 9/11 terrorist attacks put the spotlight on the nation's public health agencies, placing it under an unprecedented scrutiny that added new dimensions to the complex issues considered in this report. The Future of the Public's Health in the 21st Century reaffirms the vision of Healthy People 2010, and outlines a systems approach to assuring the nation's health in practice, research, and policy. This approach focuses on joining the unique resources and perspectives of diverse sectors and entities and challenges these groups to work in a concerted, strategic way to promote and protect the public's health. Focusing on diverse partnerships as the framework for public health, the book discusses: The need for a shift from an individual to a population-based approach in practice, research, policy, and community engagement. The status of the governmental public health infrastructure and what needs to be improved, including its interface with the health care delivery system. The roles nongovernment actors, such as academia, business, local communities and the media can play in creating a healthy nation. Providing an accessible analysis, this book will be important to public health policy-makers and practitioners, business and community leaders, health advocates, educators and journalists.
