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Human Judgment and Social Policy by Kenneth R. Hammond Pdf
With numerous examples from law, medicine, engineering, and economics, the author presents a comprehensive examination of the underlying dynamics of judgment, dramatizing its important role in the formation of social policies which affect us all.
From various vantage points the authors consider the topic of judgment and decision in policy formation. Richard Lamm, governor of Colorado, describes the problem of utilizing scientific knowledge in the context of political survival. Joseph Coates, assistant to the director, Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, explores the nature of public policy issues. Kenneth Hammond, director of the Center for the Study of Judgment and decision in Policy Formation at the University of Colorado, describes the competence of thought that can he brought to bear on public policy issues. Paul Slovic, Decision Research Inc., addresses the problem of risk assessment in policy formation from the point of view of a cognitive psychologist. Ward Edwards, director, Social Science Research Institute, University of Southern California, describes the general manner in which decision theory may be applied to policy formation. Kenneth Boulding, program director, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, provides an overview of judgment and decision in policy formation. Eillel Einhorn, professor of industrial psychology, University of Chicago, shows the consequences of fallible judgment for social policy formation. Kenneth Hammond and Leonard Adelman provide an example of the application of judgment analysis to a public policy issue.
Hammond has changed the way academics think about decision making; with this book, he aims to show a larger audience why mistaken judgments happen, how to make better decisions, and how to understand the thought modes operating in the political process.
Judgment and Decision Making by Terry Connolly,Hal R. Arkes,Kenneth R. Hammond Pdf
This work examines issues such as medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labour negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, and jury decisions. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection of papers on judgment and decision-making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied.
"In Social Life and Moral Judgment, author and philosopher Antony Flew examines the social problems induced by the mature welfare state. Welfare states make ever-increasing financial demands on their citizenry, yet the evidence clearly supports that such demands are not sustainable. In this superlative collection of thematic essays, Flew investigates and explains why this is so, and calls for a return to individual responsibility.The first essay establishes the philosophical basis for his argument. ""Is Human Sociobiology Possible?"" answers its titular question in the negative, asserting that we are all members of a peculiar type of creature that can, and therefore must, be responsible for whatever choices between various courses of action or inaction that are open to us as individuals. In other essays, Flew shows how state welfare systems inevitably corrupt and demoralize their citizens by encouraging ever-more people to apply for welfare entitlements and reducing the incentives to avoid or escape the conditions warranting those entitlements. He investigates the origins of this new kind of welfare entitlement, and shows how very different what politicians and public sector employees produce is from what these people claim to be producing.Flew shows that the drive for ""social"" justice appears to require that the justly acquired income and wealth of all citizens should be progressively taxed away or supplemented by the state so that the eventual result is more, though never perfect, equality. This objective, he asserts, must be radically distinguished from old-fashioned, without prefix or suffix, justice. It was this type of justice Adam Smith referred to when he famously said that it is a virtue ""of which the observance is not left to the freedom of our wills"" but ""which may be extorted by force."" Flew question the aims of those who would discredit wealth creators and wealth-creating investment, showing that these are the same people who prom"
Human Judgment and Decision Processes in Applied Settings by Martin F. Kaplan,Steven Schwartz Pdf
Human Judgment and Decision Processes in Applied Settings is the second to two volumes that attempt to define the areas of progress in the understanding of human decision making processes. The first volume, Human Judgment and Decision Processes (Academic Press, 1975) was concerned with formal and mathematical approaches to the problems of judgment and decision making. The major theoretical orientations (information integration theory, signal detection theory, portfolio theory, and multiattribute-utility measurement) were presented and their rationales discussed. The present volume is concerned with the application of these theories, and the various techniques derived from them, to the problems of decision making in the everyday world. The chapters reflect the many modifications and adjustments that must be made to mathematical rules in order to apply decision theory models in the real world. The tools described serve a broad variety of interests: those of the urban health or social planner, the organizational manager, the researcher, the educator, and, in fact, all of those who must weight evidence to reach decisions. Planner, manager, researcher, teacher, policymaker—all will find assistance in overcoming the commonly encountered roadblocks when one must choose between alternatives in what remains an uncertain world.
There are four basic goals for research in SJT (Social Judgment Theory): - to analyze judgment tasks and judgmental processes; - to analyze the relations between judgmental systems (i.e. to analyze agreement and its structure), and between tasks and judgmental systems (i.e. to analyze achievement and its structure; - to understand how relations between judgmental systems and between judgmental systems and tasks come to be whatever they are (i.e. to understand processes of communication and learning and their effects upon achievement and agreement); - to find means of improving the relation between judgmental systems (improving agreement) and between judgmental systems and tasks (improving achievement).
This special issue of "Thinking and Reasoning" is devoted to social judgement theory SJT, which has its origins in Egon Brunswik's probabilistic functionalism.; The first paper discusses the history and theory of SJT and explores Hammond's distinction between coherence and correspondence criteria. The next paper presents the major methodological approaches of SJT, with a focus on the Lens Model. Four applications follow, including an exploration of the medical applications of SJT.
Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making by Derek J. Koehler,Nigel Harvey Pdf
The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Contains contributions by experts from various disciplines that reflect current trends and controversies on judgment and decision making. Provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making and portrays the major findings in the field. Presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making. Explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law.
Judgments, Decisions, and Public Policy by Mothakapalli Venkatappa Rajeev Gowda,Jeffrey C. Fox Pdf
Behavioral decision theory draws on experimental research in cognitive psychology to provide a descriptively accurate model of human behavior. It shows that people systematically violate the normative assumptions of economic rationality by miscalculating probabilities and making choices based on one-economic criteria. Behavioral decision theory s ability to capture the complexity of human judgments and choices makes it a useful foundation for improving public policy analysis, design, and implementation. This volume showcases the research of leading scholars who are working on applications of behavioral decision theory in diverse policy settings. It is designed to give policy analysts and practitioners who are non-psychologists a clearer understanding of the complexities of human judgment and choice, and an idea of how to integrate behavioral decision theoretic insights into the policy sciences. This interdisciplinary volume should be insightful and useful wherever people s judgments and choices matter for policy formulation, acceptance, and effectiveness.
Cognition and Social Behavior by John S. Carroll,John W. Payne Pdf
First published in 1976. This volume presents the collected papers of the Eleventh Annual Symposium on Cognition, held at Carnegie-Mellon University in April, 1975. These papers are unique in the history of these symposia for their orientation toward the study of social behavior. This symposium brings together the two fields of social psychology and cognitive psychology in response to a growing desire among many social psychologists to seek out or develop a more systematic body of theory, and a corresponding desire among many cognitive psychologists to study the everyday affairs of people outside the laboratory.
Epistemology and the Psychology of Human Judgment by Michael A Bishop,J. D. Trout Pdf
Bishop and Trout here present a unique and provocative new approach to epistemology (the theory of human knowledge and reasoning). Their approach aims to liberate epistemology from the scholastic debates of standard analytic epistemology, and treat it as a branch of the philosophy of science. The approach is novel in its use of cost-benefit analysis to guide people facing real reasoning problems and in its framework for resolving normative disputes in psychology. Based on empirical data, Bishop and Trout show how people can improve their reasoning by relying on Statistical Prediction Rules (SPRs). They then develop and articulate the positive core of the book. Their view, Strategic Reliabilism, claims that epistemic excellence consists in the efficient allocation of cognitive resources to reliable reasoning strategies, applied to significant problems. The last third of the book develops the implications of this view for standard analytic epistemology; for resolving normative disputes in psychology; and for offering practical, concrete advice on how this theory can improve real people's reasoning. This is a truly distinctive and controversial work that spans many disciplines and will speak to an unusually diverse group, including people in epistemology, philosophy of science, decision theory, cognitive and clinical psychology, and ethics and public policy.
Noise by Daniel Kahneman,Olivier Sibony,Cass R. Sunstein Pdf
From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.