Imf Supported Programs And Crisis Prevention An Analytical Framework

Author : Jun Il Kim
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2006-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UCSD:31822034387944

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IMF-Supported Programs and Crisis Prevention: An Analytical Framework by Jun Il Kim Pdf

This paper presents an analytical framework for considering the role of IMF-supported programs in preventing crises, particularly capital account crises. The model builds upon the global games framework to establish a unique relationship between the crisis probability and the parameters of the program, which is assumed to be negotiated between the IMF and the member country, taking explicit account of each party's interests. In the model, from the perspective of the borrowing country, IMF financing and policy adjustment are (perfect) substitutes inasmuch as they both contribute to the country's liquidity and thus reduce the likelihood of a crisis. In equilibrium, however, IMF financing promotes stronger policies, implying that financing and adjustment are strong complements in crisis prevention. Conditionality plays a crucial role in sustaining the program, providing mutual assurances-to the member country that, if it undertakes the agreed policies, financing will indeed be forthcoming, and to the IMF that the country will implement the agreed policies as the IMF disburses its resources. The model helps explain how liquidity crises may come about, how IMF support can reduce the likelihood of a crisis by providing liquidity and sustaining stronger policies, and why the observed mix between financing and adjustment may vary across programs.

Author : Mr.Juan Zalduendo,Mr.Jun Il Kim,Mr.Bikas Joshi,Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Ms.Uma Ramakrishnan,Mr.Alun H. Thomas
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2008-05-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781589067097

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IMF Support and Crisis Prevention by Mr.Juan Zalduendo,Mr.Jun Il Kim,Mr.Bikas Joshi,Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Ms.Uma Ramakrishnan,Mr.Alun H. Thomas Pdf

This paper examines the various roles of IMF financing in crisis prevention. Emerging market economies that experienced financial crises in the past have been subject to enormous economic and social costs, highlighting the importance of crisis prevention. While the main defense against a crisis lies in a country’s own policies and institutional framework, the IMF can contribute to these efforts through its surveillance activities, provision of technical assistance, and promotion of standards and codes. But the IMF may be able to contribute to crisis prevention more directly by providing contingent financial support. This paper explores the theoretical basis of, and empirical evidence for, possible “crisis prevention programs.”

Author : International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2006-03-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498332859

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Fund-Supported Programs and Crisis Prevention by International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf

This paper examines the theoretical foundations for, and empirical evidence of, Fund support in preventing capital account crises. At a theoretical level, Fund supported programs can lower the crisis probability in two ways. First, such programs provide the member with additional external reserves, making a run for the exit by private creditors less likely. Second, such programs induce and signal better economic policies, though this needs to be supported by conditionality.

Author : Mr.Ali J Al-Sadiq
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 38 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2015-07-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513502342

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The Impact of IMF-Supported Programs on FDI in Low-income Countries by Mr.Ali J Al-Sadiq Pdf

It is common for IMF-supported adjustment programs with low-income member countries (LICs) to project that they will facilitate FDI inflows. The main objective of this paper is to empirically examine this hypothesis. Using an unbalanced panel dataset for 73 low-income countries over the period 1980–2012, and two different econometric methods that address the selection-bias problem, the empirical results robustly show that participating in IMF-supported program is associated with a significant increase in FDI inflows.

Author : Mr.Juan Zalduendo,Ms.Uma Ramakrishnan
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2006-03-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451863357

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The Role of IMF Support in Crisis Prevention by Mr.Juan Zalduendo,Ms.Uma Ramakrishnan Pdf

This paper examines the role of IMF-supported programs in crisis prevention; specifically, whether, conditional on an episode of intense market pressures, IMF financial support helps prevent a capital account crisis from developing and, if so, through what channels. In doing so, the paper distinguishes between the seal of approval inherent in IMF support and its financing, evaluates the interaction of IMF support with economic policies, and assesses whether IMF financing has a different impact on the likelihood of a crisis than other forms of liquidity. The main result is that IMF financing helps prevent crises through the liquidity provided (i.e., money matters). However, since the effect holds even after controlling for (gross) foreign exchange reserves, stronger policies and the seal of approval under an IMFsupported program must also play a role. Finally, the results suggest that IMF financing as a crisis prevention tool is most effective for an intermediate range of economic fundamentals.

Author : Uma Ramakrishnan,Juan Zalduendo
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 38 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Capital market
ISBN : UCSD:31822034373902

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The Role of IMF Support in Crisis Prevention by Uma Ramakrishnan,Juan Zalduendo Pdf

This paper examines the role of IMF-supported programs in crisis prevention; specifically, whether, conditional on an episode of intense market pressures, IMF financial support helps prevent a capital account crisis from developing and, if so, through what channels. In doing so, the paper distinguishes between the seal of approval inherent in IMF support and its financing, evaluates the interaction of IMF support with economic policies, and assesses whether IMF financing has a different impact on the likelihood of a crisis than other forms of liquidity. The main result is that IMF financing helps prevent crises through the liquidity provided (i.e., money matters). However, since the effect holds even after controlling for (gross) foreign exchange reserves, stronger policies and the seal of approval under an IMF supported program must also play a role. Finally, the results suggest that IMF financing as a crisis prevention tool is most effective for an intermediate range of economic fundamentals.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2006-03-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498332866

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Precautionary Arrangements - Purposes and Performance by International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf

This paper compares experience under precautionary and non-precautionary programs over the period 1992-2005, with a view to answering two questions: Are there systematic differences between precautionary and non-precautionary programs in terms of policies, conditionality, or macroeconomic outcomes? And, if so, are these attributable to the nature of the arrangement or to the economic problems facing the member and the circumstances that led it to seek the Fund’s support? The paper finds that countries with weak initial macroeconomic performance tend to request drawing programs whereas those with stronger macroeconomic fundamentals, but facing economic uncertainties, favor precautionary programs. While significant differences exist in the behavior of key macroeconomic variables (output growth and inflation) at the outset of the programs, these differences tend to disappear over the following two to three years, and can be largely explained by the different initial conditions facing the member.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 260 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2002-09-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1589061225

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IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 3 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

This paper empirically investigates the monetary impact of banking crises in Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, and Uruguay during 1975–98. Cointegration analysis and error correction modeling are used to research two issues: (i) whether money demand stability is threatened by banking crises; and (ii) whether crises lead to structural breaks in the relation between monetary indicators and prices. Overall, no systematic evidence that banking crises cause money demand instability is found. The paper also analyzes inflation targeting in the context of the IMF-supported adjustment programs.

Author : G. Cornia
Publisher : Springer
Page : 356 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2006-09-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780230627901

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Pro-Poor Macroeconomics by G. Cornia Pdf

This book tackles the disagreements that affect those looking to establish the macroeconomic policies needed to halve poverty over the next ten years. It presents a pro-poor macroeconomic policy allowing countries to recapture policy space, help promote growth, reduce inequality and diminish poverty in a sustainable way.

Author : Mr.Ashoka Mody,Mr.Alessandro Rebucci
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 184 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2006-04-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1589063619

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IMF-Supported Programs by Mr.Ashoka Mody,Mr.Alessandro Rebucci Pdf

Research work by the IMF’s staff on the effectiveness of the country programs the organization supports, which has long been carried out, has intensified in recent years. IMF analysts have sought to “open up the black box” by more closely examining program design and implementation, as well as how these influence programs’ effectiveness. Their efforts have also focused on identifying the lending, signaling, and monitoring features of the IMF that may affect member countries’ economic performance. This book reports on a large portion of both the new and the continuing research. It concludes that IMF programs work best where domestic politics and institutions permit the timely implementation of the necessary measures and when a country is vulnerable to, but not yet in, a crisis. It points to the need for a wider recognition of the substantial diversity among IMF member countries and for programs to be tailored accordingly while broadly maintaining the IMF’s general principle of uniformity of treatment.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office,International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 72 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2016-09-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475525144

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The IMF and the Crises in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal by International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office,International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept. Pdf

This volume book brings together nine background papers prepared for an evaluation by the IMF Independent Evaluation Office of “the IMF and the crises in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal.” It presents an authoritative work on the evolving relationship between the IMF and the euro area, a common currency area founded in 1999 consisting of advanced, highly integrated economies in Europe. The euro area, or any common currency area for that matter, has posed challenges to the IMF’s operational activities as its Articles of Agreement contain no provision for joint membership. The challenges became intense when a series of crises erupted in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal from 2009 to 2011, and the Fund was called upon to help intervene by offering its financing and crisis management expertise. The IMF found itself in uncharted territory where there was no precedent or established procedure. The chapters, many of which are prepared by prominent academics and former senior IMF officials who are thoroughly familiar with internal procedures, discuss various aspects of the IMF’s engagement with the euro area, including precrisis surveillance, how key decisions were made, how the IMF collaborated with European institutions, and how it designed and implemented its lending programs with the three crisis countries. The book gives prominence to governance-related issues, given the large voting share (of more than 20 percent) within the IMF of euro area members and the subsequent public perception that the IMF treated the euro area more favorably than it does developing and emerging market members. The approaches are both cross-cutting and country-based. Some chapters deal with issues related to the euro area as a whole, while others focus on how the Fund engaged with individual euro area countries. The book contains a statement on the IEO evaluation by the IMF Managing Director and a Summing Up of the Executive Board discussion held in July 2016.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 83 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2018-02-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484340622

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Indonesia by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Pdf

This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Indonesian economy has continued to perform well. The economic outlook is positive. Real GDP growth is projected at 5.1 percent in 2017, rising gradually to 5.6 percent over the medium term, led by robust domestic demand. Inflation is projected to remain about 3.5 percent, within the official target range, owing to stable food and administered prices, and well anchored inflation expectations. The current account deficit is expected to remain contained at near 2 percent of GDP owing to firm commodity prices and robust exports. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, including spikes in global financial volatility, uncertainty around the United States economic policies, lower growth in China, and geopolitical tensions.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 54 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2011-05-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498338813

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Analytics of Systemic Crises and the Role of Global Financial Safety Nets by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf

In response to the global crisis, the Fund overhauled its lending toolkit and boosted its resources, strengthening its ability to pre-empt financial crises. This paper—with the companion paper on Mapping Cross-Border Financial Linkages—takes another look at the recent global crisis in the context of a broader review of past systemic crises to (i) assess whether rising linkages across countries is a source of latent systemic instability and (ii) ascertain whether the global financial safety net (GFSN) is adequate to contain crisis and contagion risks arising from such systemic instability. This paper develops a new methodology to identify systemic crises and reviews associated policy responses from a global, rather than country-level, perspective

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 218 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2004
Category : International finance
ISBN : UCBK:C094036110

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IMF Research Bulletin by Anonim Pdf

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 392 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : India
ISBN : UCAL:B5167360

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Artha Suchi by Anonim Pdf