Inflation And Activity

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Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications

Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard,Mr.Eugenio Cerutti,Lawrence Summers
Inflation and Activity Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications Book PDF

Author : Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard,Mr.Eugenio Cerutti,Lawrence Summers
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2015-11-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513536613

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Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard,Mr.Eugenio Cerutti,Lawrence Summers Pdf

We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years in 23 countries. We find that a high proportion of them have been followed by lower output or even lower growth. To examine the second, we estimate a Phillips curve relation over the past 50 years for 20 countries. We find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then. We draw implications of our findings for monetary policy.

Inflation and Activity

Olivier J. Blanchard
Inflation and Activity Book PDF

Author : Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2018
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1304489830

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Inflation and Activity by Olivier J. Blanchard Pdf

We explore two issues triggered by the global financial crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years in 23 countries. We find that a high proportion of them have been followed by lower output or even lower growth. To examine the second, we estimate a Phillips curve relation over the past 50 years for 20 countries. We find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s but has remained roughly stable since then. We draw implications of our findings for monetary policy.

Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activityon Inflation

Mr.Douglas Laxton,Mr.Guy Meredith,David Rose
Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activityon Inflation Book PDF

Author : Mr.Douglas Laxton,Mr.Guy Meredith,David Rose
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 1994-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451929355

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Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activityon Inflation by Mr.Douglas Laxton,Mr.Guy Meredith,David Rose Pdf

This paper examines the evidence on asymmetries in the effects of activity on inflation. Data for the G-7 countries are found to strongly support the view that the inflation-activity relationship is nonlinear, with high levels of activity raising inflation by more than low levels decrease it. In the face of such asymmetries, the average level of output in an economy subject to demand shocks will be below the level of output at which there is no tendency for inflation to rise or fall, contrary to the implications of linear models. One implication of these results is that policymakers can raise the average level of output over time by responding promptly to demand shocks, thus reducing the variance of output around trend.

Inflation, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy

Robert M. Solow,John B. Taylor
Inflation Unemployment and Monetary Policy Book PDF

Author : Robert M. Solow,John B. Taylor
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 140 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 1998
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0262692228

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Inflation, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy by Robert M. Solow,John B. Taylor Pdf

Edited and with an introduction by Benjamin M. Friedman The connection between price inflation and real economic activity has been a focus of macroeconomic research--and debate--for much of the past century. Although this connection is crucial to our understanding of what monetary policy can and cannot accomplish, opinions about its basic properties have swung widely over the years. Today, virtually everyone studying monetary policy acknowledges that, contrary to what many modern macroeconomic models suggest, central bank actions often affect both inflation and measures of real economic activity, such as output, unemployment, and incomes. But the nature and magnitude of these effects are not yet understood. In this volume, Robert M. Solow and John B. Taylor present their views on the dilemmas facing U.S. monetary policymakers. The discussants are Benjamin M. Friedman, James K. Galbraith, N. Gregory Mankiw, and William Poole. The aim of this lively exchange of views is to make both an intellectual contribution to macroeconmics and a practical contribution to the solution of a public policy question of central importance.

The Great Inflation

Michael D. Bordo,Athanasios Orphanides
The Great Inflation Book PDF

Author : Michael D. Bordo,Athanasios Orphanides
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 545 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2013-06-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226066950

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The Great Inflation by Michael D. Bordo,Athanasios Orphanides Pdf

Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

Curing Chronic Inflation

Arthur M. Okun,George L. Perry,Brookings Panel on Economic Activity
Curing Chronic Inflation Book PDF

Author : Arthur M. Okun,George L. Perry,Brookings Panel on Economic Activity
Publisher : Washington : Brookings Institution
Page : 320 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 1978
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39015055348349

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Curing Chronic Inflation by Arthur M. Okun,George L. Perry,Brookings Panel on Economic Activity Pdf

Conference report comprising contributions to economic analysis of inflation in the USA - presents economic models relating to wages and price control macroeconomics, tax systems based on incomes policies, etc., and discusses factors regarding foreign trade barriers, minimum wages, etc., and other wage policies and price policies to slow the rate of inflation. List of participants. Graphs, references and statistical tables. Conference held in Washington 1978.

Inflation Expectations

Peter J. N. Sinclair
Inflation Expectations Book PDF

Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 402 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2009-12-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781135179779

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Inflation Expectations by Peter J. N. Sinclair Pdf

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation

Douglas Laxton
Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation Book PDF

Author : Douglas Laxton
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1291213080

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Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation by Douglas Laxton Pdf

This paper examines the evidence on asymmetries in the effects of activity on inflation. Data for the G-7 countries are found to strongly support the view that the inflation-activity relationship is nonlinear, with high levels of activity raising inflation by more than low levels decrease it. In the face of such asymmetries, the average level of output in an economy subject to demand shocks will be below the level of output at which there is no tendency for inflation to rise or fall, contrary to the implications of linear models. One implication of these results is that policymakers can raise the average level of output over time by responding promptly to demand shocks, thus reducing the variance of output around trend.

Voluntary National Content Standards in Economics

National Council on Economic Education,Foundation for Teaching Economics
Voluntary National Content Standards in Economics Book PDF

Author : National Council on Economic Education,Foundation for Teaching Economics
Publisher : Council for Economic Educat
Page : 122 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 1997
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1561834335

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Voluntary National Content Standards in Economics by National Council on Economic Education,Foundation for Teaching Economics Pdf

This essential guide for curriculum developers, administrators, teachers, and education and economics professors, the standards were developed to provide a framework and benchmarks for the teaching of economics to our nation's children.

Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy

Jeff Fuhrer,Yolanda K. Kodrzycki,Jane Sneddon Little,Giovanni P. Olivei
Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy Book PDF

Author : Jeff Fuhrer,Yolanda K. Kodrzycki,Jane Sneddon Little,Giovanni P. Olivei
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 517 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2009-09-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262258203

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Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy by Jeff Fuhrer,Yolanda K. Kodrzycki,Jane Sneddon Little,Giovanni P. Olivei Pdf

Current perspectives on the Phillips curve, a core macroeconomic concept that treats the relationship between inflation and unemployment. In 1958, economist A. W. Phillips published an article describing what he observed to be the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment; subsequently, the “Phillips curve” became a central concept in macroeconomic analysis and policymaking. But today's Phillips curve is not the same as the original one from fifty years ago; the economy, our understanding of price setting behavior, the determinants of inflation, and the role of monetary policy have evolved significantly since then. In this book, some of the top economists working today reexamine the theoretical and empirical validity of the Phillips curve in its more recent specifications. The contributors consider such questions as what economists have learned about price and wage setting and inflation expectations that would improve the way we use and formulate the Phillips curve, what the Phillips curve approach can teach us about inflation dynamics, and how these lessons can be applied to improving the conduct of monetary policy. Contributors Lawrence Ball, Ben Bernanke, Oliver Blanchard, V. V. Chari, William T. Dickens, Stanley Fischer, Jeff Fuhrer, Jordi Gali, Michael T. Kiley, Robert G. King, Donald L. Kohn, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, Bartisz Mackowiak, N. Gregory Mankiw, Virgiliu Midrigan, Giovanni P. Olivei, Athanasios Orphanides, Adrian R. Pagan, Christopher A. Pissarides, Lucrezia Reichlin, Paul A. Samuelson, Christopher A. Sims, Frank R. Smets, Robert M. Solow, Jürgen Stark, James H. Stock, Lars E. O. Svensson, John B. Taylor, Mark W. Watson

Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession

Laurence M. Ball,Mr.Sandeep Mazumder
Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession Book PDF

Author : Laurence M. Ball,Mr.Sandeep Mazumder
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 58 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2011-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455263387

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Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession by Laurence M. Ball,Mr.Sandeep Mazumder Pdf

This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.