Inflation And Activity Two Explorations And Their Monetary Policy Implications

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Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications

Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard,Mr.Eugenio Cerutti,Lawrence Summers
Inflation and Activity Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications Book PDF

Author : Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard,Mr.Eugenio Cerutti,Lawrence Summers
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2015-11-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513536613

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Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard,Mr.Eugenio Cerutti,Lawrence Summers Pdf

We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years in 23 countries. We find that a high proportion of them have been followed by lower output or even lower growth. To examine the second, we estimate a Phillips curve relation over the past 50 years for 20 countries. We find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then. We draw implications of our findings for monetary policy.

Inflation and Activity

Olivier J. Blanchard
Inflation and Activity Book PDF

Author : Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2018
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1304489830

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Inflation and Activity by Olivier J. Blanchard Pdf

We explore two issues triggered by the global financial crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years in 23 countries. We find that a high proportion of them have been followed by lower output or even lower growth. To examine the second, we estimate a Phillips curve relation over the past 50 years for 20 countries. We find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s but has remained roughly stable since then. We draw implications of our findings for monetary policy.

Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy

Jeff Fuhrer,Yolanda K. Kodrzycki,Jane Sneddon Little,Giovanni P. Olivei
Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy Book PDF

Author : Jeff Fuhrer,Yolanda K. Kodrzycki,Jane Sneddon Little,Giovanni P. Olivei
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 517 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2009-09-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262258203

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Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy by Jeff Fuhrer,Yolanda K. Kodrzycki,Jane Sneddon Little,Giovanni P. Olivei Pdf

Current perspectives on the Phillips curve, a core macroeconomic concept that treats the relationship between inflation and unemployment. In 1958, economist A. W. Phillips published an article describing what he observed to be the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment; subsequently, the “Phillips curve” became a central concept in macroeconomic analysis and policymaking. But today's Phillips curve is not the same as the original one from fifty years ago; the economy, our understanding of price setting behavior, the determinants of inflation, and the role of monetary policy have evolved significantly since then. In this book, some of the top economists working today reexamine the theoretical and empirical validity of the Phillips curve in its more recent specifications. The contributors consider such questions as what economists have learned about price and wage setting and inflation expectations that would improve the way we use and formulate the Phillips curve, what the Phillips curve approach can teach us about inflation dynamics, and how these lessons can be applied to improving the conduct of monetary policy. Contributors Lawrence Ball, Ben Bernanke, Oliver Blanchard, V. V. Chari, William T. Dickens, Stanley Fischer, Jeff Fuhrer, Jordi Gali, Michael T. Kiley, Robert G. King, Donald L. Kohn, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, Bartisz Mackowiak, N. Gregory Mankiw, Virgiliu Midrigan, Giovanni P. Olivei, Athanasios Orphanides, Adrian R. Pagan, Christopher A. Pissarides, Lucrezia Reichlin, Paul A. Samuelson, Christopher A. Sims, Frank R. Smets, Robert M. Solow, Jürgen Stark, James H. Stock, Lars E. O. Svensson, John B. Taylor, Mark W. Watson

Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Ms.Valerie Cerra,A. Fatas,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena
Hysteresis and Business Cycles Book PDF

Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra,A. Fatas,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2020-05-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513536996

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Hysteresis and Business Cycles by Ms.Valerie Cerra,A. Fatas,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena Pdf

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Inflation Expectations

Peter J. N. Sinclair
Inflation Expectations Book PDF

Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 402 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2009-12-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781135179779

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Inflation Expectations by Peter J. N. Sinclair Pdf

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Economic and Monetary Union at Twenty

David Howarth,Amy Verdun
Economic and Monetary Union at Twenty Book PDF

Author : David Howarth,Amy Verdun
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 184 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2021-05-19
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781000386813

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Economic and Monetary Union at Twenty by David Howarth,Amy Verdun Pdf

The contributions to this book examine the two main asymmetries of the Euro Area as they have intensified during the second decade of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU): the first between monetary union (more supranational governance) versus ‘economic’ union (less centralised governance); the second between those Euro Area member states of the so-called ‘core’ and those of the ‘periphery’. EMU stands as one of the European Union’s (EU) flagship integration achievements. Set up in 1999, with the large majority of EU member states at the time, EMU was described as ‘asymmetrical’ even prior to its start. From the outset, it involved asymmetrical integration in monetary and ‘economic’ union. Although a major element of the blueprint that paved the way for the final stage of EMU, the concept of ‘economic’ union was insufficiently developed. The second decade of the single currency gave rise to a second asymmetry, namely one between those Euro Area member states of the ‘core’ and those of the ‘periphery’. The ten contributions to this volume speak to one or both of these asymmetries, covering the major political, political economy and policy dimensions of EMU and the ongoing debates about necessary policy and institutional reforms to overcome these asymmetries and bolster Euro Area stability. The outbreak of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) Crisis in 2020 created unprecedented socio-economic challenges for Euro Area member states, heightening the perceived urgency of reform. The chapters in this book were originally published as a special issue of the Journal of European Integration.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Asia Pacific

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Regional Economic Outlook April 2018 Asia Pacific Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 77 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2018-05-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484339886

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Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Asia Pacific by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Pdf

Asia is expected to grow by about 51⁄2 percent this year, accounting for nearly two-thirds of global growth, and the region remains the world’s most dynamic by a considerable margin. But despite the strong outlook, policymakers must remain vigilant. While risks around the forecast are broadly balanced for now, they are skewed firmly to the downside over the medium term. Key risks include those of further market corrections—possibly triggered by inflation surprises and/or faster-than-expected monetary tightening in advanced economies—a shift toward protectionist policies, and an increase in geopolitical tensions.

The Paradox of Risk

Angel Ubide
The Paradox of Risk Book PDF

Author : Angel Ubide
Publisher : Peterson Institute for International Economics
Page : 298 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2017-09-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780881327205

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The Paradox of Risk by Angel Ubide Pdf

For decades, economic policymakers have worshipped at the altar of combating inflation, reducing public deficits, and discouraging risky behavior by investors. That mindset made them hesitate when the global financial crisis erupted in 2007–08. In the face of the worst economic disaster in 75 years, they often worried excessively about the risks and possible losses from their actions, rather than moving forcefully to support financial institutions, governments, and people. Ángel Ubide's provocative thesis in Paradox of Risk is that central banks' fear of inflation and risk taking has hampered their efforts to revive global prosperity. In their confusion, he argues, policymakers made the recovery weaker. He calls on world leaders to abandon old shibboleths and learn the lessons from the financial crisis and its sluggish aftermath. Ubide mobilizes a wealth of research on the experience from the last decade, urging policymakers to leave their "comfort zone," embrace risk taking, and take bolder action to brighten the world's economic prospects. (The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) provided funding for this study).

Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik,Juan Angel Garcia
Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies Book PDF

Author : Geraldine Dany-Knedlik,Juan Angel Garcia
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2018-06-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484364406

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Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies by Geraldine Dany-Knedlik,Juan Angel Garcia Pdf

This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.

Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa

Andrew Berg,Rafael Portillo
Monetary Policy in Sub Saharan Africa Book PDF

Author : Andrew Berg,Rafael Portillo
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 474 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2018-04-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780198785811

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Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa by Andrew Berg,Rafael Portillo Pdf

Low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa present unique monetary policy challenges, from the high share of volatile food in consumption to underdeveloped financial markets; however most academic and policy work on monetary policy is aimed at much richer countries. Can economic models and methods invented for rich countries even be adapted and applied here? How does and should monetary policy work in sub-Saharan African? Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa answers these questions and provides practical tools and policy guidance to respond to the complex challenges of this region. Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have made great progress in stabilizing inflation over the past two decades. As they have achieved a degree of basic macroeconomic stability, policymakers are looking to avoid policy misalignments and respond appropriately to shocks in order to achieve stability and growth. Officially, they often have adopted "money targeting" frameworks, a regime that has long disappeared from almost all advanced and even emerging-market discussions. In practice, though, they are in many cases finding current regimes lacking, with opaque and sometimes inconsistent objectives, inadequate transmission of policy to the economy, and difficulties in responding to supply shocks. Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa takes a new approach by applying dynamic general equilibrium models suitably adapted to reflect key features of low-income countries for the analysis of monetary policy in sub-Saharan African countries. Using a progressive approach derived from the International Monetary Fund's extensive practice and research, Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa seeks to address what we know about the empirics of monetary transmission in low-income countries, how monetary policy can work in countries characterized by underdeveloped financial markets and opaque policy regimes, and how we can use empirical and theoretical methods largely derived in advanced countries to answer these questions. It then uses these key topics to guide policymakers as they attempt to adjust food price, terms of trade, aid shocks, and the effects of the global financial crisis.

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi
International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis Book PDF

Author : Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi
Publisher : Springer
Page : 298 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2018-06-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319790756

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International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi Pdf

This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

World Economic Outlook, October 2016

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
World Economic Outlook October 2016 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2016-10-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513599540

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World Economic Outlook, October 2016 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very unclear, as the fate of institutional and trade arrangements between the United Kingdom and the European Union is uncertain. Financial market sentiment toward emerging market economies has improved with expectations of lower interest rates in advanced economies, reduced concern about China’s near-term prospects following policy support to growth, and some firming of commodity prices. But prospects differ sharply across countries and regions, with emerging Asia in general and India in particular showing robust growth and sub-Saharan Africa experiencing a sharp slowdown. In advanced economies, a subdued outlook subject to sizable uncertainty and downside risks may fuel further political discontent, with anti-integration policy platforms gaining more traction. Several emerging market and developing economies still face daunting policy challenges in adjusting to weaker commodity prices. These worrisome prospects make the need for a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities more urgent than ever.

Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability

Michael Heise
Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability Book PDF

Author : Michael Heise
Publisher : Springer
Page : 111 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2019-02-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030050788

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Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability by Michael Heise Pdf

Since the financial crisis of 2008/09, the world’s major central banks have been struggling to return their economies to higher growth and to reach their inflation targets. This concise book analyzes the importance of central bank policies for the economy, and specifically investigates the reasons why they have failed to steer inflation as desired. The author, the Chief Economist at Allianz SE, argues that, in an environment of great uncertainty concerning the pass-through of monetary stimulus to the economy, central banks should not focus too narrowly on inflation targets, but should increasingly take the side effects of their actions into account. In particular, he contends that they must seek to minimize the risk of financial booms and busts in order to maximize long-term growth and prosperity. Building on existing research and contributing to the current debate, the book offers a valuable reference guide and food for thought for policymakers, professionals and students alike.

Monetary Policy, Financial Crises, and the Macroeconomy

Frank Heinemann,Ulrich Klüh,Sebastian Watzka
Monetary Policy Financial Crises and the Macroeconomy Book PDF

Author : Frank Heinemann,Ulrich Klüh,Sebastian Watzka
Publisher : Springer
Page : 351 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2017-09-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319562612

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Monetary Policy, Financial Crises, and the Macroeconomy by Frank Heinemann,Ulrich Klüh,Sebastian Watzka Pdf

This volume investigates different aspects of monetary policy and prevention of financial crises. It discusses some recently suggested measures for central banks' responses to liquidity shortages and to the liquidity trap, methods for assessing the potential of crisis contagion via the interbank network, and the interaction between micro- and macro-prudential regulation. It compares different approaches for solving the Eurozone sovereign-debt problem and provides a new and intriguing explanation for rising income inequality. The authors are experts on monetary policy, financial crises, and contract theory from different European universities and central banks.

OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2018

OECD
OECD Economic Outlook Volume 2018 Book PDF

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
Page : 316 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2018-06-21
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789264300071

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OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2018 by OECD Pdf

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances. Coverage is provided for all OECD member ...