Info Gap Decision Theory

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Info-Gap Decision Theory

Yakov Ben-Haim
Info Gap Decision Theory Book PDF

Author : Yakov Ben-Haim
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 384 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2006-10-11
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780080465708

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Info-Gap Decision Theory by Yakov Ben-Haim Pdf

Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. New theory developed systematically Many examples from diverse disciplines Realistic representation of severe uncertainty Multi-faceted approach to risk Quantitative model-based decision theory

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Vincent A. W. J. Marchau,Warren E. Walker,Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen,Steven W. Popper
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau,Warren E. Walker,Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen,Steven W. Popper
Publisher : Springer
Page : 408 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2019-04-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030052522

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Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau,Warren E. Walker,Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen,Steven W. Popper Pdf

This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Robust Optimal Planning and Operation of Electrical Energy Systems

Behnam Mohammadi-ivatloo,Morteza Nazari-Heris
Robust Optimal Planning and Operation of Electrical Energy Systems Book PDF

Author : Behnam Mohammadi-ivatloo,Morteza Nazari-Heris
Publisher : Springer
Page : 315 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2019-02-06
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783030042967

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Robust Optimal Planning and Operation of Electrical Energy Systems by Behnam Mohammadi-ivatloo,Morteza Nazari-Heris Pdf

This book discusses the recent developments in robust optimization (RO) and information gap design theory (IGDT) methods and their application for the optimal planning and operation of electric energy systems. Chapters cover both theoretical background and applications to address common uncertainty factors such as load variation, power market price, and power generation of renewable energy sources. Case studies with real-world applications are included to help undergraduate and graduate students, researchers and engineers solve robust power and energy optimization problems and provide effective and promising solutions for the robust planning and operation of electric energy systems.

Info-Gap Economics

Y. Ben-Haim
Info Gap Economics Book PDF

Author : Y. Ben-Haim
Publisher : Springer
Page : 245 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2010-04-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780230277328

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Info-Gap Economics by Y. Ben-Haim Pdf

This book is a product of applying info-gap decision theory to policy formulation and evaluation in monetary economics and related domains. Info-gap theory has been applied to planning and decision problems in many areas, including engineering, biological conservation, project management, economics, medicine, homeland security, and more.

Probability, Statistics, and Truth

Richard Von Mises
Probability Statistics and Truth Book PDF

Author : Richard Von Mises
Publisher : Courier Corporation
Page : 273 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 1981-01-01
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780486242149

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Probability, Statistics, and Truth by Richard Von Mises Pdf

This comprehensive study of probability considers the approaches of Pascal, Laplace, Poisson, and others. It also discusses Laws of Large Numbers, the theory of errors, and other relevant topics.

Value of Information and Flexibility

Martin J. Vilela,Gbenga F. Oluyemi
Value of Information and Flexibility Book PDF

Author : Martin J. Vilela,Gbenga F. Oluyemi
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 295 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2021-10-21
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783030869892

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Value of Information and Flexibility by Martin J. Vilela,Gbenga F. Oluyemi Pdf

This book presents a consistent methodology for making decisions under uncertain conditions, as is almost always the case. Tools such as value of information and value of flexibility are explored as a means to make more complex and nuanced decisions. The book develops the complete formalism for assessing the value of acquiring information with two novel approaches. Firstly, it integrates the fuzzy characteristics of data, and secondly develops a methodology for assessing data acquisition actions that optimize the value of projects from a holistic perspective. The book also discusses the formalism for including flexibility in the project decision assessment. Practical examples of oil- and gas-related decision problems are included and discussed to facilitate the learning process. This book provides valuable advice and case studies applicable to engineers, researchers, and graduate students, particularly in the oil and gas industry and pharmaceutic industry.

Shadows of the Mind

Roger Penrose
Shadows of the Mind Book PDF

Author : Roger Penrose
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
Page : 484 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 1994
Category : Computers
ISBN : 0195106466

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Shadows of the Mind by Roger Penrose Pdf

Presents the author's thesis that consciousness, in its manifestation in the human quality of understanding, is doing something that mere computation cannot; and attempts to understand how such non-computational action might arise within scientifically comprehensive physical laws.

Epidemic Modelling

D. J. Daley,J. Gani
Epidemic Modelling Book PDF

Author : D. J. Daley,J. Gani
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 160 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 1999-04-13
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 0521640792

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Epidemic Modelling by D. J. Daley,J. Gani Pdf

This is a general introduction to the mathematical modelling of diseases.

Convex Models of Uncertainty in Applied Mechanics

Y. Ben-Haim,I. Elishakoff
Convex Models of Uncertainty in Applied Mechanics Book PDF

Author : Y. Ben-Haim,I. Elishakoff
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2013-10-22
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781483290973

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Convex Models of Uncertainty in Applied Mechanics by Y. Ben-Haim,I. Elishakoff Pdf

Recognition of the need to introduce the ideas of uncertainty in a wide variety of scientific fields today reflects in part some of the profound changes in science and engineering over the last decades. Nobody questions the ever-present need for a solid foundation in applied mechanics. Neither does anyone question nowadays the fundamental necessity to recognize that uncertainty exists, to learn to evaluate it rationally, and to incorporate it into design. This volume provides a timely and stimulating overview of the analysis of uncertainty in applied mechanics. It is not just one more rendition of the traditional treatment of the subject, nor is it intended to supplement existing structural engineering books. Its aim is to fill a gap in the existing professional literature by concentrating on the non-probabilistic model of uncertainty. It provides an alternative avenue for the analysis of uncertainty when only a limited amount of information is available. The first chapter briefly reviews probabilistic methods and discusses the sensitivity of the probability of failure to uncertain knowledge of the system. Chapter two discusses the mathematical background of convex modelling. In the remainder of the book, convex modelling is applied to various linear and nonlinear problems. Uncertain phenomena are represented throughout the book by convex sets, and this approach is referred to as convex modelling. This book is intended to inspire researchers in their goal towards further growth and development in this field.

Insights in Decision Making

Robin M. Hogarth
Insights in Decision Making Book PDF

Author : Robin M. Hogarth
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 376 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 1990-04-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0226348555

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Insights in Decision Making by Robin M. Hogarth Pdf

How do people make decisions? How can we help people make better decisions? How can we best study the processes of decision making? The growing field of behavioral decision research, which seeks to link observed decision behavior to underlying psychological mechanisms, may provide the answers to these questions. The volume is based on a recent conference held to honor the work and memory of the late Hillel J. Einhorn, a pioneering scholar in behavioral decision research. Composed of contributions by leading researchers, Insights in Decision Making provides a state-of-the-art image of work in this field. The range of topics covered includes conceptual and technical issues the bridge the gap between theory and the practical concern of improving decision making, difficulties in statistical thinking, experimental studies of processes of judgment and choice, and the emergence of new paradigms for studying decision behavior. Providing many avenues for future research, Insights in Decision Making will be essential reading for students of the psychology of decision making and will prove valuable to readers in psychology, economics, statistics, and management.

Risk-Based Energy Management

Sayyad Nojavan,Mahdi Shafieezadeh,Noradin Ghadimi
Risk Based Energy Management Book PDF

Author : Sayyad Nojavan,Mahdi Shafieezadeh,Noradin Ghadimi
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 294 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2019-07-20
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780128174920

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Risk-Based Energy Management by Sayyad Nojavan,Mahdi Shafieezadeh,Noradin Ghadimi Pdf

Risk-Based Energy Management: DC, AC and Hybrid AC-DC Microgrids defines the problems and challenges of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids and considers the right tactics and risk-based scheduling to tackle them. The book looks at the intermittent nature of renewable generation, demand and market price with the risk to DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids, which makes it relevant for anyone in renewable energy demand and supply. As utilization of distributed energy resources and the intermittent nature of renewable generations, demand and market price can put the operation of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids at risk, this book presents a timely resource. Discusses both the challenges and solutions surrounding DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids Proposes robust scheduling of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids under uncertain environments Includes modeling upstream grid prices, renewable resources and intermittent load in the decision-making process of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids

Moral Uncertainty

William MacAskill,Krister Bykvist,Toby Ord
Moral Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : William MacAskill,Krister Bykvist,Toby Ord
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 237 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2020
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780198722274

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Moral Uncertainty by William MacAskill,Krister Bykvist,Toby Ord Pdf

About the bookToby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics. Very often we are uncertain about what we ought, morally, to do. We do not know how to weigh the interests of animals against humans, how strong our duties are to improve the lives of distant strangers, or how to think about the ethics of bringing new people into existence. But we still need to act. So how should we make decisions in the face of such uncertainty? Though economists and philosophers have extensively studied the issue of decision-making in the face of uncertainty about matters of fact, the question of decision-making given fundamental moral uncertainty has been neglected. In Moral Uncertainty, philosophers William MacAskill, Krister Bykvist, and Toby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics.

The Paradox of Choice

Barry Schwartz
The Paradox of Choice Book PDF

Author : Barry Schwartz
Publisher : Harper Collins
Page : 308 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2009-10-13
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9780061748998

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The Paradox of Choice by Barry Schwartz Pdf

Whether we're buying a pair of jeans, ordering a cup of coffee, selecting a long-distance carrier, applying to college, choosing a doctor, or setting up a 401(k), everyday decisions—both big and small—have become increasingly complex due to the overwhelming abundance of choice with which we are presented. As Americans, we assume that more choice means better options and greater satisfaction. But beware of excessive choice: choice overload can make you question the decisions you make before you even make them, it can set you up for unrealistically high expectations, and it can make you blame yourself for any and all failures. In the long run, this can lead to decision-making paralysis, anxiety, and perpetual stress. And, in a culture that tells us that there is no excuse for falling short of perfection when your options are limitless, too much choice can lead to clinical depression. In The Paradox of Choice, Barry Schwartz explains at what point choice—the hallmark of individual freedom and self-determination that we so cherish—becomes detrimental to our psychological and emotional well-being. In accessible, engaging, and anecdotal prose, Schwartz shows how the dramatic explosion in choice—from the mundane to the profound challenges of balancing career, family, and individual needs—has paradoxically become a problem instead of a solution. Schwartz also shows how our obsession with choice encourages us to seek that which makes us feel worse. By synthesizing current research in the social sciences, Schwartz makes the counter intuitive case that eliminating choices can greatly reduce the stress, anxiety, and busyness of our lives. He offers eleven practical steps on how to limit choices to a manageable number, have the discipline to focus on those that are important and ignore the rest, and ultimately derive greater satisfaction from the choices you have to make.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Decision Making Under Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 350 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2015-07-24
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780262331715

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty by Mykel J. Kochenderfer Pdf

An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Closing the Mind Gap

Ted Cadsby
Closing the Mind Gap Book PDF

Author : Ted Cadsby
Publisher : BPS Books
Page : 503 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2014-03-24
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781927483800

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Closing the Mind Gap by Ted Cadsby Pdf

We have always struggled, as human beings. But our struggle today is exacerbated by a gap between the increasingly complicated world we have created and the default ways we think about it. Twenty-first-century challenges are qualitatively different from the ones that generations of our ancestors faced, yet our thinking has not evolved to keep pace. We need to catch up. To make smarter decisions -- as governments, organizations, families and individuals -- we need more sophisticated mental strategies for interpreting and responding to today's complexity. Best-selling author and business leader Ted Cadsby explores the insights of cognitive psychology, anthropology, biology, neuroscience, physics, and philosophy to reveal the gap between how we typically tackle complex problems and what complexity actually requires of us. In an accessible and engaging style, he outlines ways to close the gap -- the strategic mental shifts that increase decision-making effectiveness. The bottom line? We need greater complexity in our thinking to match the increasing complexity in our world, and Cadsby shows us how.