Info Gap Economics Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle version is available to download in english. Read online anytime anywhere directly from your device. Click on the download button below to get a free pdf file of Info Gap Economics book. This book definitely worth reading, it is an incredibly well-written.
This book is a product of applying info-gap decision theory to policy formulation and evaluation in monetary economics and related domains. Info-gap theory has been applied to planning and decision problems in many areas, including engineering, biological conservation, project management, economics, medicine, homeland security, and more.
Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. New theory developed systematically Many examples from diverse disciplines Realistic representation of severe uncertainty Multi-faceted approach to risk Quantitative model-based decision theory
Farm Incomes, Wealth and Agricultural Policy Filling the CAP's Core Information Gap, 4th Edition by Berkeley Hill Pdf
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has been supporting the incomes of the European Union's agricultural community for half a century. Despite this, there is still no official system in place to track the economic wellbeing of farmers and their families. This book examines the evidence on the overall wealth of farming households, and concludes that in nearly all member states, they are not generally a poor sector of society, with disposable incomes that are similar to, or exceed, the national average.
Why solving the information problem should be at the core of our pandemic response: essential reading about the long-term implications of our current crisis. COVID-19 is caused by a virus. The COVID-19 pandemic is caused by a lack of good information. A pandemic is essentially an information problem: this is the enlightening and provocative idea at the heart of this book. If we solve the information problem, argues economist Joshua Gans, we can defeat the virus. For example, when we don't know who is infected, we have to act as if everyone is infected. If we actively manage the information problem--if we know who is infected and with whom they had contact--we can suppress the virus or buy time for vaccine development. This is an expanded version of an eBook originally published as Economics in the Age of COVID-19.
New Approaches to the Economics of Plant Health by Alfons Oude Lansink Pdf
The world trade of plants and plant products is gradually increasing in both quantity and variety. Also, as more and more citizens are nowadays travelling to distant destinations, there is an increased risk of unintentionally importing harmful organisms and invasive species. Governments respond to increased phytosanitary risks by imposing trade-restricting measures. However, they are under increasing pressure of the private sector and the World Trade Organization to justify costly and trade-restricting phytosanitary policies. On the other side, current phytosanitary policies are required to account for impacts on the environment. This book presents a number of recent scientific developments regarding the economic analysis of impacts that harmful organisms have on agriculture and the environment, and of measures to control these organisms. It also contains a number of new approaches that integrate economic and epidemiological modelling and economic approaches for measuring these impacts.
Error and Uncertainty in Scientific Practice by Marcel Boumans,Giora Hon,Arthur C. Petersen Pdf
Assessment of error and uncertainty is a vital component of both natural and social science. This edited volume presents case studies of research practices across a wide spectrum of scientific fields. It compares methodologies and presents the ingredients needed for an overarching framework applicable to all.
Vincent A. W. J. Marchau,Warren E. Walker,Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen,Steven W. Popper
Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau,Warren E. Walker,Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen,Steven W. Popper Publisher : Springer Page : 408 pages File Size : 42,7 Mb Release : 2019-04-04 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9783030052522
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau,Warren E. Walker,Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen,Steven W. Popper Pdf
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
"A primer to the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, covering the reasons for shutting down the economy, and how to restart the economy after the shutdown ends"--
Why solving the information problem should be at the core of our pandemic response: essential reading about the long-term implications of our current crisis. COVID-19 is caused by a virus. The COVID-19 pandemic is caused by a lack of good information. A pandemic is essentially an information problem: this is the enlightening and provocative idea at the heart of this book. If we solve the information problem, argues economist Joshua Gans, we can defeat the virus. For example, when we don't know who is infected, we have to act as if everyone is infected. If we actively manage the information problem--if we know who is infected and with whom they had contact--we can suppress the virus or buy time for vaccine development. This is an expanded version of an eBook originally published as Economics in the Age of COVID-19.
Innovations create both opportunities and dilemmas. They provide new and supposedly better opportunities, but — because of their newness — they are often more uncertain and potentially worse than existing options. Recent inventions and discoveries include new drugs, new energy sources, new foods, new manufacturing technologies, new toys and new pedagogical methods, new weapon systems, new home appliances and many other discoveries and inventions. Is it better to use or not to use a new and promising but unfamiliar and hence uncertain innovation? That dilemma faces just about everybody. The paradigm of the innovation dilemma characterizes many situations, even when a new technology is not actually involved. The dilemma arises from new attitudes, like individual responsibility for the global environment, or new social conceptions, like global allegiance and self-identity transcending nation-states. These dilemmas have far-reaching implications for individuals, organizations, and society at large as they make decisions in the age of innovation. The uncritical belief in outcome-optimization — "more is better, so most is best" — pervades decision-making in all domains, but is often irresponsible when facing the uncertainties of innovation. There is a great need for practical conceptual tools for understanding and managing the dilemmas of innovation. This book offers a new direction for a wide audience. It discusses examples from many fields, including e-reading, bipolar disorder and pregnancy, disruptive technology in industry, stock markets, agricultural productivity and world hunger, military hardware, military intelligence, biological conservation, on-line learning, and more.
Author : George F. DeMartino,Professor George F. DeMartino Publisher : University of Chicago Press Page : 278 pages File Size : 46,7 Mb Release : 2022-07-26 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9780226821238
The Tragic Science by George F. DeMartino,Professor George F. DeMartino Pdf
The tragic science. The tragedy of economics ; Economic paternalism, heroic economics ; Harm's complexity -- The origins of econogenic harm. The unevenness of econogenic impact ; The specter of irreparable ignorance ; Counterfactual fictions in economic explanation and harm assessment -- Economic moral geometry. Managing harm via economic moral geometry ; Moral geometry: An assessment ; Beyond moral geometry: interests, social harm, capabilities -- Confronting econogenic harm responsibly. Economic harm profile analysis ; Decision making under deep uncertainty ; Conclusion: from reckless to responsible economics.
Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3 by Robert Barthorpe,Roland Platz,Israel Lopez,Babak Moaveni,Costas Papadimitriou Pdf
Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3: Proceedings of the 35th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2017, the third volume of ten from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, including papers on: Uncertainty Quantification in Material Models Uncertainty Propagation in Structural Dynamics Practical Applications of MVUQ Advances in Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Model Updating Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Industrial Applications Controlling Uncertainty Uncertainty in Early Stage Design Modeling of Musical Instruments Overview of Model Validation and Uncertainty
Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making by Richard J. Arend Pdf
Knight (1921) defines uncertainty as an informational market failure that, while being detrimental to most existing businesses, presents possible profitable opportunities for others. This book builds upon that classic work by providing an analysis of the alternative approaches to strategic decision-making under such uncertainty. It covers what uncertainty is, why it is important, and what connections it has to business and related fields, culminating in a new and comprehensive typology and a valuable guide for how to appropriately address various types of uncertainties, even under AI. It clarifies the current terminological and categorical confusion about ‘unknowns’ while complementing the mathematical, probability-based approaches that treat uncertainty as ‘knowable’ (i.e., as risk). It corrects the mistaken approaches that treat ‘unknowables’ as ‘shapeable’ or ‘discoverable’. This book widens the perspective for viewing uncertainty, in terms of its impacts across humanity, by offering a shrewder understanding of what roles uncertainties play in human activity. It will appeal to academics across business, economics, philosophy, and other disciplines looking for approaches to apply, test, and hone for dealing with decision-making under uncertainty.
Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing by Leszek Rutkowski,Marcin Korytkowski,Rafal Scherer,Ryszard Tadeusiewicz,Lotfi A. Zadeh,Jacek M. Zurada Pdf
The two-volume set LNAI 9119 and LNAI 9120 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing, ICAISC 2015, held in Zakopane, Poland in June 2015. The 142 revised full papers presented in the volumes, were carefully reviewed and selected from 322 submissions. These proceedings present both traditional artificial intelligence methods and soft computing techniques. The goal is to bring together scientists representing both areas of research. The first volume covers topics as follows neural networks and their applications, fuzzy systems and their applications, evolutionary algorithms and their applications, classification and estimation, computer vision, image and speech analysis and the workshop: large-scale visual recognition and machine learning. The second volume has the focus on the following subjects: data mining, bioinformatics, biometrics and medical applications, concurrent and parallel processing, agent systems, robotics and control, artificial intelligence in modeling and simulation and various problems of artificial intelligence.
Encyclopedia of Energy, Natural Resource, and Environmental Economics by Anonim Pdf
Every decision about energy involves its price and cost. The price of gasoline and the cost of buying from foreign producers; the price of nuclear and hydroelectricity and the costs to our ecosystems; the price of electricity from coal-fired plants and the cost to the atmosphere. Giving life to inventions, lifestyle changes, geopolitical shifts, and things in-between, energy economics is of high interest to Academia, Corporations and Governments. For economists, energy economics is one of three subdisciplines which, taken together, compose an economic approach to the exploitation and preservation of natural resources: energy economics, which focuses on energy-related subjects such as renewable energy, hydropower, nuclear power, and the political economy of energy resource economics, which covers subjects in land and water use, such as mining, fisheries, agriculture, and forests environmental economics, which takes a broader view of natural resources through economic concepts such as risk, valuation, regulation, and distribution Although the three are closely related, they are not often presented as an integrated whole. This Encyclopedia has done just that by unifying these fields into a high-quality and unique overview. The only reference work that codifies the relationships among the three subdisciplines: energy economics, resource economics and environmental economics. Understanding these relationships just became simpler! Nobel Prize Winning Editor-in-Chief (joint recipient 2007 Peace Prize), Jason Shogren, has demonstrated excellent team work again, by coordinating and steering his Editorial Board to produce a cohesive work that guides the user seamlessly through the diverse topics This work contains in equal parts information from and about business, academic, and government perspectives and is intended to serve as a tool for unifying and systematizing research and analysis in business, universities, and government
