Kondratieff Waves Dimensions And Prospects At The Dawn Of The 21st Century

Author : Leonid Grinin,Tessaleno Devezas,Andrey Korotayev
Publisher : ООО "Издательство "Учитель"
Page : 224 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2012-05-30
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9785705732876

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Kondratieff Waves: Dimensions and Prospects at the Dawn of the 21st Century by Leonid Grinin,Tessaleno Devezas,Andrey Korotayev Pdf

Kondratieff waves constitute a sort of mystery that has been haunting economic and social researchers for almost a century. Why do we observe such regularity in the long-term behavior of economic and non-economic indicators? Why in certain periods do we observe prolonged upswings, whereas in other periods – notwithstanding all the enormous efforts of interested macroeconomic actors – economic development is accompanied by prolonged depressions? What gets out of order in social and economic mechanisms? Since the seminal works published by Kondratieff, a number of outstanding researchers have made significant contributions to our understanding of the possible factors affecting and provoking long-term fluctuations of human economic affairs. On the other hand, it has become more and more clear that K-waves influence many social-related processes. However, nobody appears to have found yet an entirely satisfactory solution of ‘Kondratieff's mystery’, and it continues to attract researchers. That is why we have decided to try to unite the forces of such researchers around the new almanac. This first issue offers a wide panorama of views on the Kondratieff waves' phenomenon; here one can also find information on Kondratieff’s life and works. This edition will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide circle of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of world economics and globalization.

Author : Glen Segell
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 224 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2023-04-12
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9783031245138

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Development, Globalization, Global Values, and Security by Glen Segell Pdf

This book, written in honor of Arno Tausch, presents cutting-edge research on globalization, development, and global values. Internationally renowned authors cover topics such as global economic and political cycles, global values, and support for terrorism. Over the last five decades, the Austrian political scientist Arno Tausch was a pioneer in studies on globalization, development and global values. This collection of essays takes up the issues dealt with by Tausch and presents perspectives for the 21st Century. Throughout his work, Tausch applied quantitative methods to study the fundamental issues of the global political economy and the global political system, like dependency, economic and political cycles, and global values, based on a rigorous study of available social scientific data, like the World Values Survey and the Arab Barometer.

Author : Leonid E. Grinin,Tessaleno C. Devezas,Andrey V. Korotayev,Sergey Yu. Malkov,Arno Tausсh,Brian J. L. Berry,Euel Elliott,Marco Gallegati,Zenonas Norkus,Valentina M. Bondarenko,Stephen I. Ternyik,Elżbieta Mączyńska,William R. Thompson,Leo Nefiodow,Anthony Harper
Publisher : ООО "Издательство "Учитель"
Page : 224 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2024-06-26
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9785705750818

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KONDRATIEFF WAVES by Leonid E. Grinin,Tessaleno C. Devezas,Andrey V. Korotayev,Sergey Yu. Malkov,Arno Tausсh,Brian J. L. Berry,Euel Elliott,Marco Gallegati,Zenonas Norkus,Valentina M. Bondarenko,Stephen I. Ternyik,Elżbieta Mączyńska,William R. Thompson,Leo Nefiodow,Anthony Harper Pdf

Though the researchers of the theory of long and medium-term cycles are certainly worried about the economic situation, they understand that the cyclicity still remains an inevitable attribute of economic development. And Juglar's aphorism that crisis is a consequence of the preceded prosperity is still true. In this third issue of the Yearbook ‘Kondratieff Waves’ with the subtitle ‘Cycles, Crises, and Forecasts’, we present a number of insight contributions on nature, egularities, and interconnections among cycles of different duration. Some economic cycles may result in a severe economic crisis. The current one shows once again the importance of the study of cyclical dynamics and its peculiarities. Between the 1980s and 1990s the Keynesian receipts were replaced by neoliberal and monetarist ones which seemed to be miraculous as well. The depleted growth was marked with the largest global crisis of 2008 which also showed that within globalization when regulation in the international arena is impossible yet, there recur the signs of Juglar cycles of the 19th and first half of the 20th centuries with their uncontrollable upwards and sharp declines evolving into collapses and panic. This is supported by the fact that for eight years the world has been at the depressive phase. This edition will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide range of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of global economy and globalization. This research has been supported by the Russian Foundation for the Humanities (Project No 16-02-14053 г).

Author : Leonid Grinin,Andrey Korotayev,Arno Tausch
Publisher : Springer
Page : 265 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2016-10-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319412627

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Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery by Leonid Grinin,Andrey Korotayev,Arno Tausch Pdf

This thought-provoking monograph analyzes long- medium- and short-term global cycles of prosperity, recession, and depression, plotting them against centuries of important world events. Major research on economic and political cycles is integrated to clarify evolving relationships between the global center and its periphery as well as current worldwide economic upheavals and potential future developments. Central to this survey are successive waves of industrial and, later, technological and cybernetic progress, leading to the current era of globalization and the changes of the roles of both Western powers and former minors players, however that will lead to the formation of the world order without a hegemon. Additionally, the authors predict what they term the Great Convergence, the lessening of inequities between the global core and the rest of the world, including the wealth gap between First and Third World nations. Among the topics in this ambitious volume: · Why politics is often omitted from economic analysis. · Why economic cycles are crucial to understanding the modern geopolitical landscape. · How the aging of the developed world will affect world technological and economic future.“/p> · The evolving technological forecast for Global North and South. · Where the U.S. is likely to stand on the future world stage. Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery will inspire discussion and debate among sociologists, global economists, demographers, global historians, and futurologists. This expert knowledge is necessary for further research, proactive response, and preparedness for a new age of sociopolitical change.

Author : Arno Tausch
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 449 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2021-08-09
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9783030782993

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The Future of the Gulf Region by Arno Tausch Pdf

This book studies values and attitudes in the Gulf region. In light of global power shifts, the threatening collapse of internal security in the West, and uncertainty about the current leadership vacuum in world society, this book explores a future leading role of the Gulf countries in such institutions as the G-20 and the OECD. Based on rigorous analysis of macro-level data and opinion surveys with relevance for the Gulf region, it analyzes the global macro-factors shaping the Gulf's future at a time of the global COVID-19 crisis and depression and rising global tensions. Starting with an empirical time series analysis of the long cycles of global politics and economics, it highlights the implications for the Gulf region. Offering a multivariate analysis of civil society values in the Gulf, the author analyzes value changes and attitudes on antisemitism, political Islam, internal security, democracy, and other issues of Arab politics. The partially optimistic conclusions of the study testify to the underestimated and incipient maturity of the Gulf’s civil society and strongly suggest that the Gulf's future is rather with the free societies of the West and not with a Neo-Ottoman Empire in whatever form. "Exceptional in scope and right up-to-the-minute in coverage" Brian M Pollins, Associate, Professor Emeritus, The Ohio State University. "An outstanding and topical book by an astute scholar of the MENA region" Professor Hussein Solomon, Academic Head of Department, Political Studies and Governance, University of the Free State, South Africa. "The most comprehensive and insightful study on the subject to date" Manfred B. Steger, Professor of Sociology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa and Global Professorial Fellow, Western Sydney University.

Author : Esther Care,Patrick Griffin,Mark Wilson
Publisher : Springer
Page : 276 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2017-11-07
Category : Education
ISBN : 9783319653686

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Assessment and Teaching of 21st Century Skills by Esther Care,Patrick Griffin,Mark Wilson Pdf

This book provides a detailed description of research and application outcomes from the Assessment and Teaching of 21st Century Skills project, which explored a framework for understanding the nature of these skills. The major element of this new volume is the presentation of research information from the global assessment of two 21st century skills that are amenable to teaching and learning: collaborative problem solving, and learning in digital networks. The outcomes presented include evidence to support the validity of assessment of 21st century skills and descriptions of consequent pedagogical approaches which can be used both to teach the skills and to use them to enhance key learning goals in secondary education systems. The sections of the volume are connected through a focus on the degree to which innovative assessment tasks measure the constructs of interest. This focus is informed by conceptual and methodological issues associated with affordances of 21st century computer-based assessment. How understanding of the nature of the skills, as derived from these assessments, can guide approaches to the integration of 21st century skills in the classroom, is informed by initiatives adopted by participating countries. The guiding questions in this volume are: "Do the assessment tasks measure the constructs?" and "What are the implications for assessment and teaching in the classroom?" It is the third volume of papers from this project published by Springer.

Author : Leonid Grinin
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 635 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2024-06-26
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9783031567643

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Cybernetic Revolution and Global Aging by Leonid Grinin Pdf

Author : Leonid E. Grinin,Ilya V. Ilyin,Peter Herrmann,Andrey V. Korotayev
Publisher : ООО "Издательство "Учитель"
Page : 400 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2024-06-26
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9785705753864

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Globalistics and globalization studies by Leonid E. Grinin,Ilya V. Ilyin,Peter Herrmann,Andrey V. Korotayev Pdf

The scope of human thought along with its ability to proceed from reconstruction of the most ancient periods to anticipation of the distant future, from small objects to galaxies and the Universe as well as, to embrace different trends and dimensions of reality never ceases to amaze us. You are reading a new issue of the Yearbook which contains some ‘grains’ of the description of the billion years' path. This Yearbook presents the global studies which cover different fields of research. The present volume is the sixth in the series of yearbooks with the title Globalistics and Globalization Studies. The subtitle of the volume is ‘Global Evolution, Historical Globalistics and Globalization Studies’ which reflects the contents. The present issue brings together a variety of contributions devoted to mega- and global evolution (Part I); historical globalistics (Part II); globalization and glocalization (Parts III–IV). Besides, Part IV comprises some issues on the view in the future. We become more and more accustomed to think globally and to see global processes. The yearbook will be interesting to a wide range of researchers, teachers, students and all those who are concerned about global issues.

Author : Leonid E. Grinin,Andrey V. Korotayev,Yuri E. Berezkin,Svetlana A. Borinskaya,Albert I. Davletshin,Daria A. Khaltourina,Arno Tausch,Antony Harper,Alexander D. Panov
Publisher : ООО "Издательство "Учитель"
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2024-06-26
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9785705752478

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History & Mathematics: by Leonid E. Grinin,Andrey V. Korotayev,Yuri E. Berezkin,Svetlana A. Borinskaya,Albert I. Davletshin,Daria A. Khaltourina,Arno Tausch,Antony Harper,Alexander D. Panov Pdf

The present Yearbook (which is the sixth in the series) is subtitled Economy, Demography, Culture, and Cosmic Civilizations. To some extent it reveals the extraordinary potential of scientific research. The common feature of all our Yearbooks, including the present volume, is the usage of formal methods and social studies methods in their synthesis to analyze different phenomena. In other words, if to borrow Alexander Pushkin's words, ‘to verify the algebra with harmony’. One should note that publishing in a single collection the articles that apply mathematical methods to the study of various epochs and scales – from deep historical reconstruction to the pressing problems of the modern world – reflects our approach to the selection of contributions for the Yearbook. History and Mathematics, Social Studies and formal methods, as previously noted, can bring nontrivial results in the studies of different spheres and epochs. This issue consists of three main sections: (I) Historical and Technological Dimensions includes two papers (the first is about the connection between genes, myths and waves of the peopling of Americas; the second one is devoted to quantitative analysis of innovative activity and competition in technological sphere in the Middle Ages and Modern Period); (II) Economic and Cultural Dimensions (the contributions are mostly focused on modern period); (III) Modeling and Theories includes two papers with interesting models (the first one concerns modeling punctuated equilibria apparent in the macropattern of urbanization over time; in the second one the author attempts to estimate the number of Communicative Civilizations). We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians, as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.

Author : Tessaleno Devezas,João Leitão,Askar Sarygulov
Publisher : Springer
Page : 431 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2017-02-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319496047

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Industry 4.0 by Tessaleno Devezas,João Leitão,Askar Sarygulov Pdf

This book presents the latest research perspectives on how the Industry 4.0 paradigm is challenging the process of technological and structural change and how the diversification of the economy affects structural transformation. It also explores the impact of fast-growing technologies on the transformation of socioeconomic and environmental systems, and asks whether structural and technological change can generate sustainable economic growth and employment. Further, the book presents the basic innovations (new technologies, materials, energy, etc) and industrial policies that can lead to such a structural change.

Author : Leonid Grinin,Andrey Korotayev
Publisher : ООО "Издательство "Учитель"
Page : 248 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2024-06-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9785705759101

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HISTORY & MATHEMATICS by Leonid Grinin,Andrey Korotayev Pdf

The present Yearbook (which is the eighth in the series) is subtitled Investigating Past and Future. It is devoted to three problems: the analysis of the aspects of past and present in the light of formal methods; singularity, i.e. forthcoming abrupt shift in development, the approach (or even presence) of which we already feel; the aspects of the cosmic future of human race. This issue consists of four sections: (I) History, Technologies, Politics, and Mathematics includes five articles on different directions of factual or theoretical content: history, technology, politics, and studies covering past, present, and future; (II) Singularity includes two contributions and is devoted to a rather interesting phenomenon of singularity. They suggest that indeed the hyperbolic planetary evolutionary trend observed since the origins of life on the Earth cannot continue beyond the forthcoming singularity, whereas the post-singular evolutionary trend should be qualitatively different from what has been observed before; (III) Beyond the Earth also consists of two very different articles, but they are united by their interest in the future of human race in terms of their interaction with the space; (IV) Reviews and Notes. We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians, as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.

Author : Leonardo Burlamaqui,Rainer Kattel
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 318 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2018-12-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317209768

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Schumpeter’s Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy by Leonardo Burlamaqui,Rainer Kattel Pdf

2017 marked the seventy-fifth anniversary of Schumpeter’s Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, a work acknowledged as one of the most insightful books written in the twentieth century. It retains a contemporary quality, and still invites criticisms, new interpretations, and extensions and across disciplines. This book, in addition to re-examining Schumpeter’s seminal work and undertaking a twenty-first-century update of its main themes, brings together leading social scientists to provide contemporary amendments, extensions – or eventually refutations – of key elements of Schumpeter’s vision and thesis. Issues covered include a new take on creative destruction, the contours of a theory of innovative enterprise, finance and financialisation, a critique of the secular stagnation thesis, Schumpeter’s contributions to a theory of the entrepreneurial state, his conception of socialism and its current relevance for understanding the 'China model' as well as a rekindling of his democracy thesis for our times. Bringing together leading international contributors, this book provides fresh perspectives on ideas that continue to be hugely relevant to contemporary social sciences and a guide for understanding the current tensions among capitalism, the state and democracy. These chapters will be of interest to economists, social scientists and anyone with an interest in modern capitalism.

Author : Leonid E. Grinin,Andrey V. Korotayev
Publisher : ООО "Издательство "Учитель"
Page : 305 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2013-09-30
Category : Human evolution
ISBN : 9785705737420

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Evolution: Development within Big History, Evolutionary and World-System Paradigms by Leonid E. Grinin,Andrey V. Korotayev Pdf

The application of the evolutionary approach to the history of nature and society has remained one of the most effective ways to conceptualize and integrate our growing knowledge of the Universe, life, society and human thought. The present volume demonstrates this in a rather convincing way. This is the third issue of the Almanac series titled ‘Evolution’. The first volume came out with the sub-heading ‘Cosmic, Biological, and Social’, the second was entitled ‘Evolution: A Big History Perspective’. The present volume is subtitled Development within Big History, Evolutionary and World-System Paradigms. In addition to the straightforward evolutionary approach, it also reflects such adjacent approaches as Big History, the world-system analysis, as well as globalization paradigm and long wave theory. The volume includes a number of the exciting works in these fields. The Almanac consists of five sections. The first section (Globalization as an Evolutionary Process: Yesterday and Today) contains articles demonstrating that the Evolutionary studies is capable of creating a common platform for the world-system approach, globalization studies, and the economic long-wave theory.The articles of the second section (Society, Energy, and Future) discuss the role of energy in the universal evolution, human history and the future of humankind. The third section (Aspects of Social Development) touches upon four aspects of social evolution – technological, environmental, cultural, and political. The fourth section (The Driving Forces and Patterns of Evolution) deals with various phases of megaevolution. There is also a final sectionwhichis devoted to discussions of contemporary evolutionism. This Almanac will be useful both for those who study interdisciplinary macroproblems and for specialists working in focused directions, as well as for those who are interested in evolutionary issues of Cosmology, Biology, History, Anthropology, Economics and other areas of study. More than that, this edition will challenge and excite your vision of your own life and the new discoveries going on around us!

Author : Leonid E. Grinin,Andrey V. Korotayev,Ken Baskin,Stephen I. Ternyik,Olga A. Sorokina,Rendt Gorter,Ken Gilbert,Craig Benjamin,Antonio Gelis-Filho,Anton L. Grinin,David Hookes,Antony Harper,Peter J. Richerson,Joe Brewer
Publisher : ООО "Издательство "Учитель"
Page : 224 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2024-06-26
Category : Science
ISBN : 9785705751464

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EVOLUTION by Leonid E. Grinin,Andrey V. Korotayev,Ken Baskin,Stephen I. Ternyik,Olga A. Sorokina,Rendt Gorter,Ken Gilbert,Craig Benjamin,Antonio Gelis-Filho,Anton L. Grinin,David Hookes,Antony Harper,Peter J. Richerson,Joe Brewer Pdf

The present volume is the fifth issue of the ‘Evolution’ Yearbook series. Our Yearbooks are designed to present to its readers the widest possible spectrum of subjects and issues: from universal evolutionism to the analysis of particular evolutionary regularities in the development of biological, abiotic, and social systems, culture, cognition, language, etc. The main objective of our Yearbook is the creation of a unified interdisciplinary field of research, within which scientists specializing in different disciplines could work within the framework of unified or similar paradigms, using common terminology and searching for common rules, tendencies and regularities. Global evolution (in connection with the Big History) becomes the main subject of our Yearbook. We strive to arrange each issue in such a way that the line from cosmic evolution to the human future is evident. What is the subject of the present issue of the Yearbook? Similar to the previous issues, it shows some aspects of the evolutionary advance from the earlier phases to the anticipated future of human society. But on the whole, this volume is devoted to different aspects and facts of megaevolution and some universal theories in an attempt to find common ground in the diversity of manifestation of evolution and its forms at different stages of development. So the title of this issue, ‘Evolution and Big History: Dimensions, Trends, and Forecasts’, is fully justified (besides, several papers contribute to the field of Big History). The volume consists of four sections: Dimensions, Trends, and Aspects; Big History's Manifestations; Trends and Forecasts; and Reviews and Information. This Yearbook will be useful both for those who study interdisciplinary macroproblems and for specialists working in focused directions, as well as for those who are interested in evolutionary issues of Cosmology, Biology, History, Anthropology, Economics and other areas of study. More than that, this edition will challenge and excite your vision of your own life and the new discoveries going on around us.

Author : Margret Kopala,John Budden
Publisher : BPS Books
Page : 477 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2015-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781772360165

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The Dog Bone Portfolio by Margret Kopala,John Budden Pdf

Like so many of us, Margret Kopala lost a significant portion of her life savings in the stock market crash of 2008. Unlike us, however, she went on a long and intense financial odyssey to find out what caused the losses and what she could do to protect herself in the future. Armed with her skills as a journalist and public policy analyst, fueled by equal measures of fear and determination, and mentored by successful investment strategist and financial broadcaster John Budden, Kopala researched and wrote this magisterial analysis of how Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff’s long-wave theory is playing out in what many today describe as a financial Winter. Along the way, she is introduced to financial experts familiar with Kondratieff scholarship. John Budden’s interviews in the book with Dean LeBaron, J. Anthony Boeckh, Ian Gordon, Larry Jeddeloh, Don Lindsey, the late Lord William Rees-Mogg, Jim Rogers, Eric Sprott, and Ronald-Peter Stöferle show how investors must put a new spin on asset allocation and security of their assets: like a dog that buries bones in different places, we would be advised to allocate our assets to different parts of the world – and to ensure that a good portion of those assets include gold, the only continuous basis of wealth across history and around the world. Kopala explores the global, national, and personal effects of: overconsumption; underproduction; energy and innovation; the printing of money to "save" the economy; competitive devaluations; deflation, reflation, and inflation; and war (the ultimate economic crisis). She documents those technologies that seeded previous New Economy Spring seasons -- from the era of canals to those of railroads, automobiles, and infotech -- and probes today’s innovations most likely to seed the Next New Economy that we desperately need if we are to escape the doldrums of the current financial Winter. With trenchant explanations of how individuals can achieve portfolio strength by first preserving capital then being vigilant about the financial effects of politics, economic theory, culture, and our own choices, The Dog Bone Portfolio is a gift to investors, policy-makers, and, ultimately, nations everywhere.