Long Term Debt Sustainability In Low Income Countries
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Long-term Debt Sustainability in Low-income Countries by Andreas Antoniou,Abbas Berya Pdf
Drawing on experiences in a wide range of countries, this book highlights the advantages and problems of multipleshift systems. It also makes practical suggestions on ways to make multipleshift systems operate effectively. The book is intended for (i) national and regional policymakers, and (ii) headteachers and others responsible for running multipleshift schools.
Debt-Sustainability in Low-Income Countries - Proposal for an Operational Framework and Policy Implications by International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept. Pdf
Author : World Bank Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 58 pages File Size : 47,8 Mb Release : 2004-10-09 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781498330084
Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries - Further Considerations on an Operational Framework and Policy Implications by World Bank Pdf
This paper seeks to address queries on several operational issues: (i) the robustness of the indicative thresholds; (ii) modalities for implementing DSAs; and (iii) operational implications for the Fund, Bank, and other international financial institutions and creditors.
Preserving Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries in the Wake of the Global Crisis by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept. Pdf
We cannot allow the return of economic stability to signify a return to "business as usual" for the IMF. The crisis exposed huge cracks in the international financial architecture of which the Fund is a key part. We have an historic responsibility to fix them. I urge all of us to recommit to seeing our collective goals to the finish line before reform fatigue sets in.
Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance by Mr.Henry Mooney,Constance de Soyres Pdf
This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism for public and external debt projections, which was most appreciable for LICs with the highest incomes, prospects for market access, and at ‘moderate’ risk of debt distress. This was often driven by overly-ambitious fiscal and/or growth forecasts, and projected ‘residuals’. When we control for unanticipated shocks, we find that biases remain evident, driven in part by optimism regarding government fiscal reaction functions and expected growth dividends from investment.
Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries by Yasemin Bal Gunduz Pdf
This paper estimates the determinants of external debt distress in low-income countries (LICs), disentangling the roles of institutions, shocks, and policies. The most prominent factors in raising the risk of debt distress are the weak protection of private property rights, adverse shocks to real non-oil commodity prices, and a high debt burden. Results also suggest that weak economic institutions tend to raise the probability of debt distress through persistently weak economic policies and high vulnerability to external shocks. The model enables a more granular analysis of debt sustainability in LICs and has a higher predictive power compared to the earlier scant literature.
Review of the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,World Bank Pdf
The Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-income Countries (LIC DSF) has been the cornerstone of assessments of risks to debt sustainability in LICs. The framework classifies countries based on their assessed debt-carrying capacity, estimates threshold levels for selected debt burden indicators, evaluates baseline projections and stress test scenarios relative to these thresholds, and then combines indicative rules and staff judgment to assign risk ratings of external debt distress. The framework has demonstrated its operational value since the last review was conducted in 2012, but there are areas where new features can be introduced to enhance its performance in assessing risks. Against the backdrop of the evolving nature of risks facing LICs, both staff analysis and stakeholder feedback suggest gaps in the framework to be addressed. Complexity and lack of transparency have also been highlighted as causes for concern. This paper proposes a set of reforms to enhance the value of the LIC DSF for all users. In developing these reforms, staff has been guided by two over-arching principles: a) the core architecture of the DSF—model-based results complemented by judgment—remains appropriate; and b) reforms should ensure that the DSF maintains an appropriate balance by providing countries with early warnings of potential debt distress without unnecessarily constraining their borrowing for development.
Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf
Low-income countries (LICs) face significant challenges in meeting their Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while at the same time ensuring that their external debt remains sustainable. In April 2005, the Executive Boards of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Development Association (IDA) approved the introduction of the Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF), a tool developed jointly by IMF and World Bank staff to conduct public and external debt sustainability analysis in low-income countries. The DSF has since been serving to help guide the borrowing decisions of LICs, provide guidance for creditors’ lending and grant allocation decisions, and improve World Bank and IMF assessments and policy advice. The latest review of the framework was approved by the Executive Boards in September 2017. This introduced reforms to ensure that the DSF remains appropriate for the rapidly changing financing landscape facing LICs and to further improve insights into debt vulnerabilities. This note provides operational and technical guidance on the implementation of the reformed framework.
Evolution of Debt Sustainability Analysis in Low-Income Countries by Mr.Benedicte Baduel,Mr.Robert T. Price Pdf
The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) for low-income countries (LICs) is a standardized analytical tool to monitor debt sustainability. This paper uses DSAs from three periods around the time of the global economic crisis to analyze the projected trajectories of debt ratios for a sample of LICs. The aggregate data suggest that LIC vulnerabilities improved on the whole during the period prior to the crisis, and that the crisis had a strong short-run impact on key ratios of debt (debt-to-GDP, -exports, and -fiscal revenues) and debt service (debt service-to-exports, and -revenues). Although projected debt burdens increased following the crisis, debt indicators tend to return to their pre-crisis levels over the projection horizon. This may reflect a strong and durable policy response by LICs towards the crisis, or also reflect specific assumptions on the long-run growth dividends of public external debt.
Author : International Monetary Fund Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 48 pages File Size : 44,5 Mb Release : 2009-05-08 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781498335713
A Review of Some Aspects of the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework by International Monetary Fund Pdf
The Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) is a standardized framework for analyzing debt-related vulnerabilities in low-income countries (LICs). It aims to help countries monitor their debt burden and take early preventive action, to provide guidance to creditors in ensuring their lending decisions are consistent with countries’ development goals, and to improve the Bank and Fund’s assessments and policy advice. The DSF was last reviewed in 2006, and a reconsideration of some aspects of the framework is timely.
Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries by Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.Enrico Berkes,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Andrea Presbitero,Mr.Yorbol Yakhshilikov Pdf
The World Bank and the IMF have adopted a debt sustainability framework (DSF) to evaluate the risk of debt distress in Low Income Countries (LICs). At the core of the DSF are empirically-based thresholds for each of five different measures of the debt burden (the “debt threshold approach” DTA). The DSF contains a rule for aggregating the information contained in these five different variables which we label the “worst-case aggregator” (WCA) in view of the fact that the DSF considers a breach of any one of the thresholds sufficient to indicate a high risk of debt distress. However, neither the DTA nor the WCA has heretofore been subject to empirical testing. We find that: (1) the DTA loses information relative to a simple proposed alternative; (2) the WCA is too conservative (predicting crises too often) in terms of the loss function used in the DSF; and (3) the WCA is less accurate than some simple proposed alternative aggregators as a predictor of debt distress.
Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries - Toward a Forward-Looking Strategy by International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf
Author : World Bank Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 64 pages File Size : 48,8 Mb Release : 2006-06-11 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781498332064
Applying the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries Post Debt Relief by World Bank Pdf
In April 2006, the Executive Boards of the Bank and the Fund reviewed the debt sustainability framework (DSF) for low-income countries and the implications of the multilateral debt relief initiative. Directors thought that the DSF was broadly appropriate and that no major changes were warranted, but saw scope for additional guidance on the application of the framework in a context where the apparent borrowing space created by debt relief raises new challenges in terms of policy advice. Most Directors supported a case-by-case approach for assessing the appropriate pace of debt accumulation in countries with debt below the DSF thresholds, but requested the development of specific recommendations on the implementation of such a case-by-case approach.
The Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-income Countries by Bergljot Barkbu,Christian H. Beddies,Marie-Hélène Le Manchec,International Monetary Fund Pdf
Low-income countries continue to face significant challenges in meeting their vast development needs while maintaining a sustainable debt position, even after many of these countries have benefited from substantial debt relief. These challenges are further exacerbated by changes in the financial landscape, including the emergence of new creditors and investors, the use of more complex financing vehicles, and the development of domestic markets. The joint World Bank/IMF debt sustainability framework is well placed to help address these challenges and reduce the risks of renewed episodes of debt distress. This paper explains the analytical underpinnings of the framework and the means to ensure its full effectiveness.--Publisher's description.
Evolution of Debt Sustainability Analysis in Low-Income Countries by Benedicte Baduel Pdf
The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) for low-income countries (LICs) is a standardized analytical tool to monitor debt sustainability. This paper uses DSAs from three periods around the time of the global economic crisis to analyze the projected trajectories of debt ratios for a sample of LICs. The aggregate data suggest that LIC vulnerabilities improved on the whole during the period prior to the crisis, and that the crisis had a strong short-run impact on key ratios of debt (debt-to-GDP, -exports, and -fiscal revenues) and debt service (debt service-to-exports, and -revenues). Although projected debt burdens increased following the crisis, debt indicators tend to return to their pre-crisis levels over the projection horizon. This may reflect a strong and durable policy response by LICs towards the crisis, or also reflect specific assumptions on the long-run growth dividends of public external debt.
