Long Term Macroeconomic Effects Of Climate Change A Cross Country Analysis

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Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis

Matthew E. Kahn,Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes,Ryan N. C. Ng,M. Hashem Pesaran,Mr.Mehdi Raissi,Jui-Chung Yang
Long Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change A Cross Country Analysis Book PDF

Author : Matthew E. Kahn,Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes,Ryan N. C. Ng,M. Hashem Pesaran,Mr.Mehdi Raissi,Jui-Chung Yang
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 59 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2019-10-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513514598

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Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis by Matthew E. Kahn,Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes,Ryan N. C. Ng,M. Hashem Pesaran,Mr.Mehdi Raissi,Jui-Chung Yang Pdf

We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment.

Twenty-first Century Macroeconomics

Jonathan M. Harris,Neva R. Goodwin
Twenty first Century Macroeconomics Book PDF

Author : Jonathan M. Harris,Neva R. Goodwin
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 360 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : STANFORD:36105124198495

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Twenty-first Century Macroeconomics by Jonathan M. Harris,Neva R. Goodwin Pdf

The likely economic effects of climate change and the cost of action to avert it are important public policy issues, but according to the editors (both of the Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts U.), they also raise fundamental questions about economic analysis and move issues of environmental policy from the microeconomic to the macroeconomic level. They therefore present 13 papers addressing the connections between climate change and macroeconomics. Opening chapters address fundamental issues of the likely global economic impact of climate change, the debate over the economics of climate change as presented in a special 2006 issue of the Stern Review that was commissioned by the government of the UK, the place of the climate change debate in the context of broader issues of equitable and sustainable development, and a proposed system for allocating carbon emissions reduction requirements. The next four chapters present macroeconomic theory perspectives that address issues of energy productivity, labor productivity, sustainable development, consumption, and investment. Remaining contributions explore policy options, including the new European emissions trading scheme.

The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?

Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Mr.Mico Mrkaic,Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva,Petia Topalova
The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity What are the Channels of Impact Book PDF

Author : Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Mr.Mico Mrkaic,Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva,Petia Topalova
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2018-06-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484363027

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The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact? by Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Mr.Mico Mrkaic,Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva,Petia Topalova Pdf

Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace in the past 40 years. This paper finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term, through a wide array of channels: reduced agricultural output, suppressed productivity of workers exposed to heat, slower investment, and poorer health. In an unmitigated climate change scenario, and under very conservative assumptions, model simulations suggest the projected rise in temperature would imply a loss of around 9 percent of output for a representative low-income country by 2100.

Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature

Signe Krogstrup,William Oman
Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation A Review of the Literature Book PDF

Author : Signe Krogstrup,William Oman
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 58 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2019-09-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513511955

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Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature by Signe Krogstrup,William Oman Pdf

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of this century. Mitigation requires a large-scale transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper provides an overview of the rapidly growing literature on the role of macroeconomic and financial policy tools in enabling this transition. The literature provides a menu of policy tools for mitigation. A key conclusion is that fiscal tools are first in line and central, but can and may need to be complemented by financial and monetary policy instruments. Some tools and policies raise unanswered questions about policy tool assignment and mandates, which we describe. The literature is scarce, however, on the most effective policy mix and the role of mitigation tools and goals in the overall policy framework.

Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts

Karl W. Steininger,Martin König,Birgit Bednar-Friedl,Lukas Kranzl,Wolfgang Loibl,Franz Prettenthaler
Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts Book PDF

Author : Karl W. Steininger,Martin König,Birgit Bednar-Friedl,Lukas Kranzl,Wolfgang Loibl,Franz Prettenthaler
Publisher : Springer
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2015-03-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3319124560

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Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts by Karl W. Steininger,Martin König,Birgit Bednar-Friedl,Lukas Kranzl,Wolfgang Loibl,Franz Prettenthaler Pdf

This volume deals with the multifaceted and interdependent impacts of climate change on society from the perspective of a broad set of disciplines. The main objective of the book is to assess public and private cost of climate change as far as quantifiable, while taking into account the high degree of uncertainty. It offers new insights for the economic assessment of a broad range of climate change impact chains at a national scale. The framework presented in the book allows consistent evaluation including mutual interdependencies and macroeconomic feedback. This book develops a toolbox that can be used across the many areas of climate impact and applies it to one particular country: Austria.

The Big Myth

Naomi Oreskes,Erik M. Conway
The Big Myth Book PDF

Author : Naomi Oreskes,Erik M. Conway
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing USA
Page : 577 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2023-02-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781635573589

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The Big Myth by Naomi Oreskes,Erik M. Conway Pdf

"A carefully researched work of intellectual history, and an urgently needed political analysis." --Jane Mayer “[A] scorching indictment of free market fundamentalism ... and how we can change, before it's too late.”-Esquire, Best Books of Winter 2023 The bestselling authors of Merchants of Doubt offer a profound, startling history of one of America's most tenacious--and destructive--false ideas: the myth of the "free market." In their bestselling book Merchants of Doubt, Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway revealed the origins of climate change denial. Now, they unfold the truth about another disastrous dogma: the “magic of the marketplace.” In the early 20th century, business elites, trade associations, wealthy powerbrokers, and media allies set out to build a new American orthodoxy: down with “big government” and up with unfettered markets. With startling archival evidence, Oreskes and Conway document campaigns to rewrite textbooks, combat unions, and defend child labor. They detail the ploys that turned hardline economists Friedrich von Hayek and Milton Friedman into household names; recount the libertarian roots of the Little House on the Prairie books; and tune into the General Electric-sponsored TV show that beamed free-market doctrine to millions and launched Ronald Reagan's political career. By the 1970s, this propaganda was succeeding. Free market ideology would define the next half-century across Republican and Democratic administrations, giving us a housing crisis, the opioid scourge, climate destruction, and a baleful response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Only by understanding this history can we imagine a future where markets will serve, not stifle, democracy.

More Than Fiscal

Andrew Podger,Jane Hall,Mike Woods
More Than Fiscal Book PDF

Author : Andrew Podger,Jane Hall,Mike Woods
Publisher : ANU Press
Page : 222 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2023-05-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781760465780

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More Than Fiscal by Andrew Podger,Jane Hall,Mike Woods Pdf

Every five years, the Australian treasurer is required to publish an intergenerational report (IGR), which examines the long-term sustainability of current government policies and seeks to determine how demographic, technological and other structural trends might affect the economy and the budget in coming decades. Despite these lofty objectives, the five IGRs produced from 2002 have received only muted applause. Critics say that they are too mechanical, too narrow and too subject to the views of the government of the day and that they don’t provide the intended wake-up call for public understanding of looming economic, social and environmental issues. This analysis of the most recent IGR (2021) is based on a workshop hosted by the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia. While finding that the 2021 IGR is an improvement on the previous report (2015), the authors identify several fiscal and broader policy issues that deserve greater attention, including Australia’s structural deficit, rising inequality and the impacts of climate change. They argue that the report fails to discuss the policies required to support greater resilience against future shocks, including the case for earlier budget repair. They propose that future IGRs be prepared with greater independence, cover all levels of government, have more transparent analysis and draw upon a wider ‘wellbeing’ approach to long-term sustainability. This book aims to attract close attention from public officials and politicians and generate constructive debate in the community.

Uganda

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Uganda Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 71 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2024-03-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400268168

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Uganda by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. Pdf

Uganda has committed to an ambitious climate change mitigation and adaption agenda. To achieve this, the country has developed a sound framework to enhance climate change sensitivity across public financial and public investment management. The framework clearly allocates responsibilities, enhances coordination, and requires the identification of climate expenses in the budget documentation. However, gaps remain in some key regulations, primarily on project appraisal, and some initiatives are in early stages of implementation and need further guidance and training. The Climate Public Investment Management Assessment proposes reforms across multiple areas, underscoring as priority areas project appraisal and selection, and budgeting and portfolio management.

Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects

M. Ayhan Kose,Franziska Ohnsorge
Falling Long Term Growth Prospects Book PDF

Author : M. Ayhan Kose,Franziska Ohnsorge
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 703 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2024-03-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464820014

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Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects by M. Ayhan Kose,Franziska Ohnsorge Pdf

A structural growth slowdown is under way across the world: at current trends, the global rate of potential growth is expected to fall to a three-decade low over the remainder of the 2020s. Nearly all the forces that have powered growth and prosperity since the early 1990s have weakened. In addition, a series of shocks has affected the global economy over the past three years. A persistent and broad-based decline in long-term growth prospects imperils the ability of emerging market and developing economies to combat poverty, tackle climate change, and meet other key development objectives. The challenges presented by this potential inability call for an ambitious policy response at the national and global levels. This book presents the first detailed analysis of the growth slowdown and a rich menu of policy options to deliver better growth outcomes. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This book presents a sobering analysis of the secular growth slowdown based on the most comprehensive database of potential growth estimates available to date. With nearly all the forces that have driven growth and prosperity in recent decades now weakened, the book argues that a prolonged period of weakness is under way, with serious implications for emerging market and developing economies. The authors call for bold policy actions at both the national and global levels to lift growth prospects. The book is essential reading for policy makers, economists, and anyone concerned about the future of the global economy. Beatrice Weder di Mauro Professor of International Economics, Geneva Graduate Institute, and President of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Economic policy making is becoming increasingly complicated in the 2020s. In addition to tackling traditional trade-offs in aggregate demand management and improving efficiency on the supply side, policy makers need to address new priorities and challenges, from addressing climate change and its impacts to improving income distribution, all in the context of lower growth rates, waning productivity growth, and flattening of the globalization process that has brought unprecedented prosperity across the globe and lifted more than a billion people out of poverty. In Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects, the authors do a phenomenal job of assessing these trends at the global and regional levels, identifying and unpacking salient twenty-first-century policy challenges, and providing thoughtful and evidence-based policy prescriptions for leaders in advanced, emerging market, and developing economies. Importantly, the book underscores that these challenges tend to be global and, hence, global cooperation at all levels is necessary to achieve optimal results. Alas, we seem to be going in the opposite direction; this book offers a road map to put us back on the path to creating a more integrated, prosperous, and equitable global community. Michael G. Plummer Director, SAIS Europe and ENI Professor of International Economics, The Johns Hopkins University

The Macroeconomics of Decarbonisation

Grégory Claeys,Marie Le Mouel,Simone Tagliapietra,Guntram B. Wolff,Georg Zachmann
The Macroeconomics of Decarbonisation Book PDF

Author : Grégory Claeys,Marie Le Mouel,Simone Tagliapietra,Guntram B. Wolff,Georg Zachmann
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 347 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2024-02-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781009438384

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The Macroeconomics of Decarbonisation by Grégory Claeys,Marie Le Mouel,Simone Tagliapietra,Guntram B. Wolff,Georg Zachmann Pdf

Decarbonisation is the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions using low carbon power sources, lowering output of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere. This is essential to meet global temperature standards set by international climate agreements. To limit global warming to 1.5°C, hence avoiding the worst-case scenarios predicted by climate science, the world economy must rapidly reduce its emissions and reach climate neutrality within the next three decades. This will not be an easy journey. Shifting away from carbon-intensive production will require a historic transformation of the structure of our economies. Written by a team of academics linked to the European think tank Bruegel, The Macroeconomics of Decarbonisation provides a guide to the macroeconomic fundamentals of decarbonisation. It identifies the major economic transformations, both over the long- and short-run, and the roadblocks requiring policy intervention. It proposes a macroeconomic policy agenda for decarbonisation to achieve the climate goals of the international community.

Latin American trade in the age of climate change

Amir Lebdioui
Latin American trade in the age of climate change Book PDF

Author : Amir Lebdioui
Publisher : Canning House - London School of Economics
Page : 78 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2022-05-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Latin American trade in the age of climate change by Amir Lebdioui Pdf

The economic future of Latin America and the Caribbean is intrinsically linked to climate change. In the context of a 21st century that will be marked by climate change and the global fight against it, the status quo is unlikely to help Latin American economies leap forward economically, which calls for a major rethinking of trade and investment strategies in the region. Across the region there is growing evidence of climate change - precipitation patterns are shifting, temperatures are rising, and some areas are experiencing changes in the frequency and severity of weather extremes such as floods and droughts. By 2050, it is estimated that climate change damage could cost USD 100 billion annually to the region. The impact of climate change, which will be more devastating in Latin America than in most parts of the world, also influences the region’s ability to trade and its long-term export prospects. A Latin American Green Deal, based on regional coordination to exploit existing synergies and economies of scale, could be the way forward.

Armenia

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Armenia Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 43 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2022-10-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400224140

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Armenia by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. Pdf

Armenia is facing considerable fiscal risks from climate change due to increasing and highly variable temperatures. This report provides guidance on how to quantify those risks over the long term, using an empirical approach to identify the potential impact of a range of temperature scenarios on GDP and the public finances. It finds that an extreme unmitigated temperature scenario that incorporates higher year to year variability could reduce GDP by 18 percent relative to baseline, and lead to unsustainable public debt trajectory by 2070. It also finds particular exposures to climate change on the state’s balance sheet through its SOE, PPP and on lending portfolio in the energy, water and transport sectors.

Georgia: Technical Assistance Report-Updating the Balance Sheet and Quantifying Fiscal Risks From Climate Change

International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Georgia Technical Assistance Report Updating the Balance Sheet and Quantifying Fiscal Risks From Climate Change Book PDF

Author : International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 51 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2022-05-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400209970

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Georgia: Technical Assistance Report-Updating the Balance Sheet and Quantifying Fiscal Risks From Climate Change by International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. Pdf

The Georgian Ministry of Finance (MoF) has continued to progress its analysis and reporting of fiscal risks, with its annual Fiscal Risk Statement (FRS) becoming the leading example in the region. In addition to detailed discussions of risks from SOEs and the balance sheet, amongst other, the December 2020 FRS included for the first time a qualitative discussion on the fiscal risks from climate change. Looking ahead, the government has committed to strengthening that further with the inclusion of quantitative estimates in the 2022 version of the FRS. This report provides the tools and analytical approaches to support that, as well as an update to the public sector balance (PSBS) sheet to identify the impact of the pandemic.

The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II.
The Regional Impacts of Climate Change Book PDF

Author : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II.
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 532 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 1998
Category : Science
ISBN : 0521634555

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The Regional Impacts of Climate Change by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II. Pdf

Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, 1998.

On the Macro Impact of Extreme Climate Events in Central America: A Higher Frequency Investigation

Hee Soo Kim,Carlos Chaverri,Emilio William Fernandez Corugedo,Pedro Juarros
On the Macro Impact of Extreme Climate Events in Central America A Higher Frequency Investigation Book PDF

Author : Hee Soo Kim,Carlos Chaverri,Emilio William Fernandez Corugedo,Pedro Juarros
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 38 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2022-12-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400226021

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On the Macro Impact of Extreme Climate Events in Central America: A Higher Frequency Investigation by Hee Soo Kim,Carlos Chaverri,Emilio William Fernandez Corugedo,Pedro Juarros Pdf

Central America is one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to extreme climate events. The literature estimates the macroeconomic effects of climate events mainly using annual data, which might underestimate the true effects as these extreme events tend to be short-lived and generate government and family support in response. To overcome this limitation, this paper studies Central American countries’ macroeconomic impact of climatic disasters using high-frequency (monthly) data over the period 2000-2019. We identify extreme climate events by defining dummy variables related to storm and flood events reported in the EM-DAT (Emergency Events Database) and estimate country-specific VAR and panel VAR. The results suggest that a climatic disaster drops monthly economic activity in most countries in the region of around 0.5 to 1 percentage points on impact, with persistent effects on the level of GDP. We show that even as extreme climate events were relatively less severe under our sample period, quantitative effects are similar or larger than previously estimated for the region. In addition, remittances (transfers from family living abroad) increase for most countries in response to a extreme climate event, acting as a shock absorber. The results are robust to controlling for the severity of the climate events, for which we construct a monthly climate index measuring severity of weather indicators by following the spirit of the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI).