Macroeconomic Outcomes In Disaster Prone Countries

Author : Mr.Alessandro Cantelmo,Mr.Giovanni Melina,Mr.Chris Papageorgiou
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2019-10-11
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781513515380

Get Book

Macroeconomic Outcomes in Disaster-Prone Countries by Mr.Alessandro Cantelmo,Mr.Giovanni Melina,Mr.Chris Papageorgiou Pdf

Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we study the channels through which natural disaster shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes and welfare in disaster-prone countries. We solve the model using Taylor projection, a solution method that is shown to deal effectively with high-impact weather shocks calibrated in accordance to empirical evidence. We find large and persistent effects of weather shocks that significantly impact the income convergence path of disaster-prone countries. Relative to non-disaster-prone countries, on average, these shocks cause a welfare loss equivalent to a permanent fall in consumption of 1.6 percent. Welfare gains to countries that self-finance investments in resilient public infrastructure are found to be negligible, and international aid has to be sizable to achieve significant welfare gains. In addition, it is more cost-effective for donors to contribute to the financing of resilience before the realization of disasters, rather than disbursing aid after their realization.

Author : Mr. Alessandro Cantelmo,Nikos Fatouros,Mr. Giovanni Melina,Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 65 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2022-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400204371

Get Book

Monetary Policy in Disaster-Prone Developing Countries by Mr. Alessandro Cantelmo,Nikos Fatouros,Mr. Giovanni Melina,Mr. Chris Papageorgiou Pdf

This paper analyzes monetary policy regimes in emerging and developing economies where climate-related natural disasters are major macroeconomic shocks. A narrative analysis of IMF reports published around the occurrence of natural disasters documents their impact on important macroeconomic variables and monetary policy responses. While countries with at least some degree of monetary policy independence typically react by tightening the monetary policy stance, in a sizable number of cases monetary policy was accommodated. Given the lack of consensus on best practices in these circumstances, a small open-economy New-Keynesian model with disaster shocks is leveraged to evaluate welfare under alternative monetary policy rules. Results suggest that responding to inflation to an extent sufficient to keep inflation expectations anchored, while allowing temporary deviations from its target is the welfare maximizing policy. Alternative regimes such as strict inflation targeting, exchange rate pegs, or Taylor rules explicitly responding to economic activity or the exchange rate would be welfare-detrimental.

Author : Stefan Hochrainer
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 213 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2007-12-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783835094413

Get Book

Macroeconomic Risk Management Against Natural Disasters by Stefan Hochrainer Pdf

Stefan Hochrainer develops a catastrophe risk management model. It illustrates which trade-offs and choices a country must make in managing economic risks due to natural disasters. Budgetary resources are allocated to pre-disaster risk management strategies to reduce the probability of financing gaps. The framework and model approach allows cross country comparisons as well as the assessment of financial vulnerability, macroeconomic risk, and risk management strategies. Three case studies demonstrate its flexibility and coherent approach.

Author : Ezequiel Cabezon,Ms. Leni Hunter,Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello,Kazuaki Washimi,Mr. Yiqun Wu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2015-06-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513577074

Get Book

Enhancing Macroeconomic Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change in the Small States of the Pacific by Ezequiel Cabezon,Ms. Leni Hunter,Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello,Kazuaki Washimi,Mr. Yiqun Wu Pdf

Natural disasters and climate change are interrelated macro-critical issues affecting all Pacific small states to varying degrees. In addition to their devastating human costs, these events damage growth prospects and worsen countries’ fiscal positions. This is the first cross-country IMF study assessing the impact of natural disasters on growth in the Pacific islands as a group. A panel VAR analysis suggests that, for damage and losses equivalent to 1 percent of GDP, growth drops by 0.7 percentage point in the year of the disaster. We also find that, during 1980-2014, trend growth was 0.7 percentage point lower than it would have been without natural disasters. The paper also discusses a multi-pillar framework to enhance resilience to natural disasters at the national, regional, and multilateral levels and the importance of enhancing countries’ risk-management capacities. It highlights how this approach can provide a more strategic and less ad hoc framework for strengthening both ex ante and ex post resilience and what role the IMF can play.

Author : Mr.Tobias N. Rasmussen
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2004-12-01
Category : Nature
ISBN : 1451875355

Get Book

Macroeconomic Implications of Natural Disasters in the Caribbean by Mr.Tobias N. Rasmussen Pdf

Each year natural disasters affect about 200 million people and cause about $50 billion in damage. This paper compares the incidence of natural disasters across countries along several dimensions and finds that the relative costs tend to be far higher in developing countries than in advanced economies. The analysis shows that small island states are especially vulnerable, with the countries of the Eastern Caribbean standing out as among the most disaster-prone in the world. Natural disasters are found to have had a discernible macroeconomic impact, including large effects on fiscal and external balances, pointing to an important role for precautionary measures.

Author : Mr.Alessandro Cantelmo,Mr.Giovanni Melina,Mr.Chris Papageorgiou
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2019-10-11
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781513517292

Get Book

Macroeconomic Outcomes in Disaster-Prone Countries by Mr.Alessandro Cantelmo,Mr.Giovanni Melina,Mr.Chris Papageorgiou Pdf

Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we study the channels through which natural disaster shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes and welfare in disaster-prone countries. We solve the model using Taylor projection, a solution method that is shown to deal effectively with high-impact weather shocks calibrated in accordance to empirical evidence. We find large and persistent effects of weather shocks that significantly impact the income convergence path of disaster-prone countries. Relative to non-disaster-prone countries, on average, these shocks cause a welfare loss equivalent to a permanent fall in consumption of 1.6 percent. Welfare gains to countries that self-finance investments in resilient public infrastructure are found to be negligible, and international aid has to be sizable to achieve significant welfare gains. In addition, it is more cost-effective for donors to contribute to the financing of resilience before the realization of disasters, rather than disbursing aid after their realization.

Author : Tobias Rasmussen
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1291217240

Get Book

Macroeconomic Implications of Natural Disasters in the Caribbean by Tobias Rasmussen Pdf

Each year natural disasters affect about 200 million people and cause about $50 billion in damage. This paper compares the incidence of natural disasters across countries along several dimensions and finds that the relative costs tend to be far higher in developing countries than in advanced economies. The analysis shows that small island states are especially vulnerable, with the countries of the Eastern Caribbean standing out as among the most disaster-prone in the world. Natural disasters are found to have had a discernible macroeconomic impact, including large effects on fiscal and external balances, pointing to an important role for precautionary measures.

Author : Debarati Guha-Sapir,Indhira Santos,Alexandre Borde
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 341 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2013-05-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780199841936

Get Book

The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters by Debarati Guha-Sapir,Indhira Santos,Alexandre Borde Pdf

This work combines research and empirical evidence on the economic costs of disasters with theoretical approaches. It provides new insights on how to assess and manage the costs and impacts of disaster prevention, mitigation, recovery and adaption, and much more.

Author : Taha Chaiechi
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 665 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2020-10-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780128174661

Get Book

Economic Effects of Natural Disasters by Taha Chaiechi Pdf

Economic Effects of Natural Disasters explores how natural disasters affect sources of economic growth and development. Using theoretical econometrics and real-world data, and drawing on advances in climate change economics, the book shows scholars and researchers how to use various research methods and techniques to investigate and respond to natural disasters. No other book presents empirical frameworks for the evaluation of the quality of macroeconomic research practice with a focus on climate change and natural disasters. Because many of these subjects are so large, different regions of the world use different approaches, hence this resource presents tailored economic applications and evidence. Connects economic theories and empirical work in climate change to natural disaster research Shows how advances in climate change and natural disaster research can be implemented in micro- and macroeconomic simulation models Addresses structural changes in countries afflicted by climate change and natural disasters

Author : Charlotte Benson,Edward J. Clay
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 136 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2004
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 0821356852

Get Book

Understanding the economic and financial impacts of natural disasters by Charlotte Benson,Edward J. Clay Pdf

Author : Dongyeol Lee,Huan Zhang,Chau Nguyen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2018-05-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484356388

Get Book

The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries: Adaptation and Preparedness by Dongyeol Lee,Huan Zhang,Chau Nguyen Pdf

Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to various natural disasters which are destructive, unpredictable and occur frequently. The frequency and scale of these shocks heightens the importance of medium-term economic and fiscal planning to minimize the adverse impact of disasters on economic development. This paper identifies the intensity of natural disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of damage and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression. The results show that “severe” disasters have a significant and negative impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the fiscal and trade balance. We also find that the negative impact on growth is stronger for more intense disasters. Going further this paper proposes a simple and consistent method to adjust IMF staff’s economic projections and debt sustainability analysis for disaster shocks for the Pacific islands. Better incorporating the economic impact of natural disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy makers improve fiscal policy decisions and to be better adapted and prepared for natural disasters.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 55 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2019-06-26
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781498321020

Get Book

Building Resilience in Developing Countries Vulnerable to Large Natural Disasters by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Pdf

This paper discusses how countries vulnerable to natural disasters can reduce the associated human and economic cost. Building on earlier work by IMF staff, the paper views disaster risk management through the lens of a three-pillar strategy for building structural, financial, and post-disaster (including social) resilience. A coherent disaster resilience strategy, based on a diagnostic of risks and cost-effective responses, can provide a road map for how to tackle disaster related vulnerabilities. It can also help mobilize much-needed support from the international community.

Author : Emilio Fernández Corugedo,Andres Gonzalez,Mr. Alejandro D Guerson
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 49 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2023-06-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400243004

Get Book

The Macroeconomic Returns of Investment in Resilience to Natural Disasters Under Climate Change: A DSGE Approach by Emilio Fernández Corugedo,Andres Gonzalez,Mr. Alejandro D Guerson Pdf

This paper presents a Markov switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model designed to evaluate the macroeconomic return of adaptation investment to natural disasters (NDs) and the impact of climate change. While the model follows the existing literature in assuming that NDs destroy a share of the public and private capital stocks and a government that can invest in adaptation at an additional cost, it adds several features that are key to the analysis, both in the near (transition) and long (steady state) terms. Those include incomplete markets, financial frictions with collateral constraints, foreign remittances, full menu of tax and government spending instruments, and endogenous climate risk premium. The model is calibrated to the case of Dominica. It finds that NDs have large and persistent negative effects on output and public finances. It also shows that adaptation investment has large returns in terms of private investment, employment, output and tax revenue in the long term, especially under climate change.

Author : International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 84 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2022-05-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400209536

Get Book

The Bahamas: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Bahamas by International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Pdf

The Bahamas is experiencing a tourism-led rebound. Real GDP growth in 2021 was close to 14 percent, as stayover tourist arrivals doubled relative to 2020. The economy is projected to expand by 8 percent in 2022. Nonetheless, it will likely take until 2024 to return to the 2019 level of GDP and the pandemic has given rise to significant human and social costs. The country’s medium-term growth challenges are likely worse than before, and public finances are in a more precarious state. Risks are skewed downwards given a difficult near-term financing situation, rising inflationary—and potentially BOP—pressures because of the war in Ukraine, an ongoing threat from the evolving pandemic, and the country’s high vulnerability to natural disasters.

Author : Sven Fuchs,Thomas Thaler
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 369 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2018-03-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781107154896

Get Book

Vulnerability and Resilience to Natural Hazards by Sven Fuchs,Thomas Thaler Pdf

A comprehensive overview of the concepts of vulnerability and resilience for natural hazards research for both physical and social scientists.