Macroeconomic Risk Management Against Natural Disasters
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Macroeconomic Risk Management Against Natural Disasters by Stefan Hochrainer Pdf
Stefan Hochrainer develops a catastrophe risk management model. It illustrates which trade-offs and choices a country must make in managing economic risks due to natural disasters. Budgetary resources are allocated to pre-disaster risk management strategies to reduce the probability of financing gaps. The framework and model approach allows cross country comparisons as well as the assessment of financial vulnerability, macroeconomic risk, and risk management strategies. Three case studies demonstrate its flexibility and coherent approach.
Managing Disaster Risk in Emerging Economies by Alcira Kreimer,Margaret Arnold Pdf
In 1999 natural catastrophes and man-made disasters claimed more than 105,000 lives, 95 percent of them in the developing world, and caused economic losses of around US$100 billion. In 1998 the twin disasters of the Yangtze and Hurrican Mitch accounted for two-thirds of the US$65 billion loss. The geographical areas affected may vary, but one constant is that the per capita burden of catastrophic losses is dramatically higher in developing countries. To respond to an increased demand to assist disaster rcovery programmes, the World Bank set up the Disaster Management Facility in 1998, to help provide the Bank with a more rapid and strategic response to disaster emergencies. The DMF focuses on risk identification, risk reduction, and risk sharing/transfer, the three major topics in this volume. The DMF also promotes strategic alliances with key private, government, multilateral and nongovernmental organisations to ensure the inclusion of disaster risk reduction as a central value of development. The most important of these partnerships is the ProVention Consortium, launched in February 2000, based on the premise that we must all take responsibility for making the new millennium a safer one.
Enhancing Macroeconomic Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change in the Small States of the Pacific by Ezequiel Cabezon,Ms. Leni Hunter,Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello,Kazuaki Washimi,Mr. Yiqun Wu Pdf
Natural disasters and climate change are interrelated macro-critical issues affecting all Pacific small states to varying degrees. In addition to their devastating human costs, these events damage growth prospects and worsen countries’ fiscal positions. This is the first cross-country IMF study assessing the impact of natural disasters on growth in the Pacific islands as a group. A panel VAR analysis suggests that, for damage and losses equivalent to 1 percent of GDP, growth drops by 0.7 percentage point in the year of the disaster. We also find that, during 1980-2014, trend growth was 0.7 percentage point lower than it would have been without natural disasters. The paper also discusses a multi-pillar framework to enhance resilience to natural disasters at the national, regional, and multilateral levels and the importance of enhancing countries’ risk-management capacities. It highlights how this approach can provide a more strategic and less ad hoc framework for strengthening both ex ante and ex post resilience and what role the IMF can play.
The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters by Debarati Guha-Sapir,Indhira Santos,Alexandre Borde Pdf
Since the turn of the millennium, more than one million people have been killed and 2.3 billion others have been directly affected by natural disasters around the world. In cases like the 2010 Haiti earthquake or the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, these disasters have time and time again wrecked large populations and national infrastructures. While recognizing that improved rescue, evacuation, and disease control are crucial to reducing the effects of natural disasters, in the final analysis, poverty remains the main risk factor determining the long-term impact of natural hazards. Furthermore, natural disasters have themselves a tremendous impact on the poorest of the poor, who are often ill-prepared to deal with natural hazards and for whom a hurricane, an earthquake, or a drought can mean a permanent submersion in poverty. The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters focuses on these concerns for poverty and vulnerability. Written by a collection of esteemed scholars in disaster management and sustainable development, the report provides an overview of the general trends in natural disasters and their effects by focusing on a critical analysis of different methodologies used to assess the economic impact of natural disasters. Economic Impacts presents six national case studies (Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, Nicaragua, Japan and the Netherlands) and shows how household surveys and country-level macroeconomic data can analyze and quantify the economic impact of disasters. The researchers within Economic Impacts have created path-breaking work and have opened new avenues for thinking and debate to push forward the frontiers of knowledge on economics of natural disasters.
How to Manage the Fiscal Costs of Natural Disasters by Mr.Serhan Cevik,Guohua Huang Pdf
This how-to note focuses on the management of the fiscal costs associated with natural disaster risks. Unlike other types of fiscal risks (for example, unexpected macroeconomic changes or materialization of contingent liabilities), a natural disaster presents a unique challenge to fiscal risk-management and budget processes because of its exogenous nature and potentially overwhelming scale. This note discusses how governments can build fiscal resilience against natural hazards and strengthen fiscal management after a disaster, including through budgeting frameworks and other fiscal policies. The note aims to answer three central questions: How large should fiscal buffers be? How should fiscal buffers be built up? How should fiscal buffers be used efficiently and transparently once a natural disaster has struck? These three questions directly relate to fiscal policy, fiscal risk management, and the budget process—all core areas of IMF expertise. To address them, the note focuses on fiscal strategies for financing recovery efforts and considers approaches to mitigate disaster impact. The note also provides guidance on how to conduct regular risk analyses of natural disasters’ potential fiscal consequences and outlines best practices for defining and accounting for the contingent liabilities associated with natural disasters in budgeting frameworks. Finally, the note touches on approaches for risk reduction, disaster risk financing strategies, and risk transfer mechanisms, such as various insurance instruments.
Disaster Risk Reduction for Economic Growth and Livelihood by Ian Davis,Kae Yanagisawa,Kristalina Georgieva Pdf
The prevalence of natural disasters in recent years has highlighted the importance of preparing adequately for disasters and dealing efficiently with their consequences. This book addresses how countries can enhance their resilience against natural disasters and move towards economic growth and sustainable development. Covering a wide range of issues, it shows how well thought-out measures can be applied to minimize the impacts of disasters in a variety of situations. Starting with the need for coping with a rapidly changing global environment, the book goes on to demonstrate ways to strengthen awareness of the effectiveness of preventive measures, including in the reconstruction phase. The book also covers the roles played by different actors as well as tools and technologies for improved disaster risk reduction. It focuses on a variety of case studies from across Asia, Africa and Latin America, drawing out lessons that can be applied internationally. This book will be of great interest to professionals in disaster management, including national governments, donors, communities/citizens, NGOs and private sector. It will also be a highly valuable resource for students and researchers in disaster management and policy, development studies and economics.
Understanding the Economic and Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters by Charlotte Benson,Edward J. Clay Pdf
Disaster prevention and mitigation are integral to development activities. In February 2000, the World Bank's Disaster Management Facility initiated a three-year study on the economic and financial consequences of natural disasters with the support of the U.K. Department for International Development.
Natural Disasters and Climate Change by Stéphane Hallegatte Pdf
This book explores economic concepts related to disaster losses, describes mechanisms that determine the economic consequences of a disaster, and reviews methodologies for making decisions regarding risk management and adaptation. The author addresses the need for better understanding of the consequences of disasters and reviews and analyzes three scientific debates on linkage between disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change. The first involves the existence and magnitude of long-term economic impact of natural disasters on development. The second is the disagreement over whether any development is the proper solution to high vulnerability to disaster risk. The third debate involves the difficulty of drawing connections between natural disasters and climate change and the challenge in managing them through an integrated strategy. The introduction describes economic views of disaster, including direct and indirect costs, output and welfare losses, and use of econometric tools to measure losses. The next section defines disaster risk, delineates between “good” and “bad” risk-taking, and discusses a pathway to balanced growth. A section entitled “Trends in Hazards and the Role of Climate Change” sets scenarios for climate change analysis, discusses statistical and physical models for downscaling global climate scenarios to extreme event scenarios, and considers how to consider extremes of hot and cold, storms, wind, drought and flood. Another section analyzes case studies on hurricanes and the US coastline; sea-level rises and storm surge in Copenhagen; and heavy precipitation in Mumbai. A section on Methodologies for disaster risk management includes a study on cost-benefit analysis of coastal protections in New Orleans, and one on early-warning systems in developing countries. The next section outlines decision-making in disaster risk management, including robust decision-making, No-regret and No-risk strategies; and strategies that reduce time horizons for decision-making. Among the conclusions is the assertion that risk management policies must recognize the benefits of risk-taking and avoid suppressing it entirely. The main message is that a combination of disaster-risk-reduction, resilience-building and adaptation policies can yield large potential gains and synergies.
Dealing with Increased Risk of Natural Disasters by Mr.Muthukumara Mani,Mr.Michael Keen,Mr.Paul K. Freeman Pdf
Natural disaster risk is emerging as an increasingly important constraint on economic development and poverty reduction. This paper first sets out the key stylized facts in the area-that the costs of disaster have been increasing, seem set to continue to increase, and bear especially heavily on the poorest. It then reviews the key economic issues at stake, focusing in particular on the actual and prospective roles of, and interaction between, market instruments and public interventions in dealing with disaster risk. Key sources of market failure include the difficulty of risk spreading and, perhaps even more fundamental, the Samaritan's dilemma: the underinvestment in protective measures associated with the rational expectation that others will provide support if disaster occurs. Innovations addressing each of these are discussed.
Natural Disasters by Ms.Nicole Laframboise,Mr.Boileau Loko Pdf
This paper reviews the literature on the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters and presents the IMF’s role in assisting countries coping with natural catastrophes. Focusing on seven country cases, the paper describes the emergency financing, policy support, and technical assistance provided by the Fund to help governments put together a policy response or build a macro framework to lay the foundation for recovery and/or unlock other external financing. The literature and experience suggests there are ways to strengthen policy frameworks to increase resilience to natural disaster shocks, including identifying the risks and probability of natural disasters and integrating them more explicitly into macro frame-works, increasing flexibility within fiscal frameworks, and improving coordination amongst international partners ex post and ex ante.
Economics Of Natural Disasters by Suman Kumari Sharma,Euston Quah Pdf
Unlike existing books on the topic that cover more on non-economic aspects of natural disasters, this book covers economic aspects of natural disasters viz damage assessment, risk management and resilience. The book contains several case studies and covers some of the major natural disasters in different countries, most notably the recent Nepal earthquake, tsunami in Fukushima, the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, floods in Thailand, the typhoon Haiyan, and the eruptions of Mount Merapi. It also suggests avenues for better public policies to tackle economics of natural disasters.
Natural Disaster Risk Management and Financing Disaster Losses in Developing Countries by Reinhard Mechler Pdf
Natural disasters may cause large economic impacts and impede socioeconomic development in developing countries considerably. Increasingly, risk management, the management of disasters before the actual occurrence of events, is being advocated. Risk financing measures taken by national governments, such as insurance und reinsurance, are important components of a risk management strategy. Often developing countries are not able to finance the costs of relief and reconstruction by their own means and have to rely on the international donor community as their "reinsurer of last resort". The main objective of the book is to establish a platform to provide information on the costs caused by disasters and the costs and benefits of disaster risk management focusing on ex-ante risk financing measures taken governments in developing countries. The final objective is to provide insight into the specific conditions where risk financing may constitute an option that provides net benefits and increases social welfare. The modelling using a stochastic simulation approach incorporates probabilistic information on the direct losses due to natural disasters into a macroeconomic projection model. Outputs are macroeconomic flow impacts such as impacts on GPD. In order to analyze the costs and benefits due to undertaking risk management measures, a Cost-Benefit Analysis approach is employed using the mean-variance method. Two case studies are conducted on countries with different exposures to disaster risk and different economic vulnerabilities: Honduras and Argentina. A major insight derived from the case studies is that under certain conditions risk financing arrangements may decrease the vulnerability to natural hazards resulting in more robust development in developing economics.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 55 pages File Size : 43,8 Mb Release : 2019-06-26 Category : Nature ISBN : 9781498321020
Building Resilience in Developing Countries Vulnerable to Large Natural Disasters by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Pdf
This paper discusses how countries vulnerable to natural disasters can reduce the associated human and economic cost. Building on earlier work by IMF staff, the paper views disaster risk management through the lens of a three-pillar strategy for building structural, financial, and post-disaster (including social) resilience. A coherent disaster resilience strategy, based on a diagnostic of risks and cost-effective responses, can provide a road map for how to tackle disaster related vulnerabilities. It can also help mobilize much-needed support from the international community.
