Macroeconomic Stability In Resource Rich Countries

Author : Ms.Elva Bova,Mr.Paulo A. Medas,Mr.Tigran Poghosyan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2016-02-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475596465

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Macroeconomic Stability in Resource-Rich Countries by Ms.Elva Bova,Mr.Paulo A. Medas,Mr.Tigran Poghosyan Pdf

Resource-rich countries face large and persistent shocks, especially coming from volatile commodity prices. Given the severity of the shocks, it would be expected that these countries adopt countercyclical fiscal policies to help shield the domestic economy. Taking advantage of a new dataset covering 48 non-renewable commodity exporters for the period 1970-2014, we investigate whether fiscal policy does indeed play a stabilizing role. Our analysis shows that fiscal policy tends to have a procyclical bias (mainly via expenditures) and, contrary to others, we do not find evidence that this bias has declined in recent years. Adoption of fiscal rules does not seem to reduce procyclicality in a significant way, but the quality of political institutions does matter. Finally, non-commodity revenues tend to respond only to persistent changes in commodity prices.

Author : Elva Bova,Paulo Medas,Tigran Poghosyan
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2016
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : 1498377505

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Macroeconomic Stability in Resource-rich Countries by Elva Bova,Paulo Medas,Tigran Poghosyan Pdf

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.,International Monetary Fund. African Dept.,World Bank
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 75 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2012-08-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498339988

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Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks for Resource-Rich Developing Countries - Background Paper 1 by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.,International Monetary Fund. African Dept.,World Bank Pdf

This paper provides deeper insights on a few themes with regard to the experience with macroeconomic management in resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs). First, some stylized facts on the performance of these economies relative to their non-resource peers are provided. Second, the experience of Fund engagement in these economies with respect to surveillance, programs, and technical assistance is assessed. Third, the experience of selected countries with good practices in the management of the natural resource wealth is presented. Fourth, the experience of IMF advice in helping RRDCs set up resource funds is discussed. Finally, the main themes and messages from the IMF staff consultation with external stakeholders (CSOs, policy makers, academics) are presented.

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Mustapha K. Nabli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 49 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2012-05-01
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781475553628

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Natural Resources, Volatility, and Inclusive Growth by Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Mustapha K. Nabli Pdf

This paper takes stock of the economic performance of resource rich countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over the past forty years. While those countries have maintained high levels of income per capita, they have performed poorly when going beyond the assessment based on standard income level measures. Resource rich countries in MENA have experienced relatively low and non inclusive economic growth as well as high levels of macroeconomic volatility. Important improvements in health and education have taken place but the quality of the provision of public goods and services remains an important source of concerns. Looking forward we argue that the success of economic reforms in MENA rests on the ability of those countries to invest boldly in building inclusive institutions as well as high levels of human capacity in public administrations.

Author : Naotaka Sugawara
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 49 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2014-03-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484334560

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From Volatility to Stability in Expenditure by Naotaka Sugawara Pdf

This paper examines the effect of stabilization funds on the volatility of government expenditure in resource-rich countries. Using a panel data set of 68 resource-rich countries over 1988–2012, the results find that the existence of stabilization funds contributes to smoothing government expenditure. The spending volatility in countries that have established such funds is found to be 13 percent lower in the main estimation, and similar impacts are found in robustness tests. The analysis also shows that political institutions and fiscal rules are significant factors in reducing the expenditure volatility, while highlighting the roles of the size of economy, diversified exports, real sector management, and financial markets.

Author : Kamiar Mohaddes,Jeffrey B. Nugent,Hoda Selim
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 400 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2019-05-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780192555373

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Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies by Kamiar Mohaddes,Jeffrey B. Nugent,Hoda Selim Pdf

For over eighty years the Arab region has been deriving massive wealth from its natural resources. Nevertheless, its economic performance has been at the mercy of ebbs and flows of oil prices and its resources have been slowly depleting. The two critical questions are why and how Arab countries might escape the oil curse. Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies focuses on the unique features of the Arab world to explain the disappointing outcomes of macroeconomic policy. It explores the interaction between oil and institutions to draw policy recommendations on how Arab countries can best exploit their oil revenues to avoid the resource curse. Case studies and contributions from experts provide an understanding of macroeconomic institutions (including their underlying rules, procedures and institutional arrangements) in oil-rich Arab economies and of their political economy environment, which has largely been overlooked in previous research. Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies offers novel macroeconomic policy propositions for exchange rate regimes, fiscal policy and oil wealth distribution that is more consistent with macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability. These policy reforms, if implemented successfully, could go a long way in helping the resource-rich countries of the Arab region and elsewhere to avoid the oil curse.

Author : Pranav Gupta,Grace Bin Li,Jiangyan Yu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 31 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2015-04-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475521122

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From Natural Resource Boom to Sustainable Economic Growth: Lessons for Mongolia by Pranav Gupta,Grace Bin Li,Jiangyan Yu Pdf

Some resource-rich developing countries are in the process of harnessing immense mining resources towards inclusive growth and prosperity. Nevertheless, tapping into natural resources could be challenging given the large front-loaded investment, volatile capital flows and exposure to global commodity markets. Public investment is needed to remove the often-large infrastructure gap and unlock the economic potential. However, too rapid fiscal outlays could push the economy to its limit of absorptive capacity and increase macro-financial vulnerabilities. This paper utilizes a structural model-based approach to analyze macroeconomic impacts of different public investment strategies on key fiscal and non-fiscal variables such as debt, consumption, sovereign wealth fund, and real exchange rates. We apply the model to Mongolia and draw policy recommendations from the analysis. We find that fiscal policy adjustment, particularly moderating infrastructure investment and optimizing investment efficiency is needed to maintain macroeconomic and external stability, as well as to boost the long-term sustainable growth for Mongolia.

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Kazim Kazimov,Mr.Kirk Hamilton
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2011-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455266432

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Resource Windfalls, Macroeconomic Stability and Growth by Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Kazim Kazimov,Mr.Kirk Hamilton Pdf

We use a new dataset on non-resource GDP to examine the performance of commodity-exporting countries in terms of macroeconomic stability and economic growth in a panel of up to 129 countries during the period 1970-2007. Our main findings are threefold. First, we find that overall government spending in commodity-exporting countries has been procyclical. Second, we find that resource windfalls initially crowd out non-resource GDP which then increases as a result of the fiscal expansion. Third, we find that in the long run resource windfalls have negative effects on non-resource sector GDP growth. Yet, the effects turn out to be statistically insignificant when controlling for government spending. Both the effects of resource windfalls on macroeconomic stability and economic growth are moderated by the quality of political institutions.

Author : Rolando Ossowski,Havard Halland
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 164 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2016-06-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464804960

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Fiscal Management in Resource-Rich Countries by Rolando Ossowski,Havard Halland Pdf

The extractive industries (EI) sector occupies an outsize space in the economies of many developing countries. Policy makers, economists, and public finance professionals working in such countries are frequently confronted with issues that require an in-depth understanding of the sector, its economics, governance, and policy challenges, as well as the implications of natural resource wealth for fiscal and public financial management. The objective of the two-volume Essentials for Economists, Public Finance Professionals, and Policy Makers, published in the World Bank Studies series, is to provide a concise overview of the EI-related topics these professionals are likely to encounter. This second volume, Fiscal Management in Resource-Rich Countries, addresses critical fiscal challenges typically associated with large revenue flows from the EI sector. The volume discusses fiscal policy across four related dimensions: short-run stabilization, the management of fiscal risks and vulnerabilities, the promotion of long-term sustainability, and the importance of good public financial management and public investment management systems. The volume subsequently examines several institutional mechanisms used to aid fiscal management, including medium-term expenditure frameworks, resource funds, fiscal rules, and fiscal councils. The volume also discusses the earmarking of revenue, resource revenue projections as applied to the government budget, and fiscal transparency, and outlines several fiscal indicators used to assess the fiscal stance of resource-rich countries. The authors hope that economists, public finance professionals, and policy makers working in resource-rich countries—including decision makers in ministries of finance, international organizations, and other relevant entities—will find the volume useful to their understanding and analysis of fiscal management in resource-rich countries.

Author : Mr.Sanjeev Gupta,Mr.Alex Segura-Ubiergo,Enrique Flores
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 26 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2014-06-10
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781498326179

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Direct Distribution of Resource Revenues by Mr.Sanjeev Gupta,Mr.Alex Segura-Ubiergo,Enrique Flores Pdf

Some scholars have argued that direct distribution of natural resource revenues to the population would help resource-rich countries escape the “resource curse.” This discussion note analyzes whether this proposal is a viable policy alternative for resource-rich countries. The first priority for policymakers is to establish fiscal policy objectives to support macroeconomic stability and development objectives. In this regard, the establishment of an adequate fiscal framework that informs decisions on how much to save and invest, or how to smooth out revenue volatility, and deal with exhaustibility issues should precede any discussion of direct distribution of resource wealth to the population.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.,World Bank
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 104 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2012-08-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498340007

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Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks for Resource-Rich Developing Countries--Analytic Frameworks and Applications by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.,World Bank Pdf

This supplement presents the analytical frameworks underlying the IMF’s staff’s enhanced policy analysis and advice to resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs). The proposed macro-fiscal models, which are applied to selected country or regional cases, are aimed at addressing questions regarding how to deal with resource revenue uncertainty and how to scale up spending within relevant frameworks that ensure fiscal and external sustainability while addressing absorptive capacity constraints. The country applications confirm the importance attached by both IMF staff and country authorities of using the appropriate macro-fiscal frameworks to address the specific challenges faced by RRDCs.

Author : Richard M. Auty
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 82 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 1998
Category : Commercial policy
ISBN : STANFORD:36105028974066

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Resource Abundance and Economic Development by Richard M. Auty Pdf

Author : Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Mr.Mauricio Villafuerte,Mr.Thomas Baunsgaard,Christine J. Richmond
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2012-05-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475510065

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Fiscal Frameworks for Resource Rich Developing Countries by Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Mr.Mauricio Villafuerte,Mr.Thomas Baunsgaard,Christine J. Richmond Pdf

Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.

Author : Juliana Dutra Araujo,Ms.Bin Li,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Luis-Felipe Zanna
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2013-03-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484396032

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Current Account Norms in Natural Resource Rich and Capital Scarce Economies by Juliana Dutra Araujo,Ms.Bin Li,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Luis-Felipe Zanna Pdf

The permanent income hypothesis implies that frictionless open economies with exhaustible natural resources should save abroad most of their resource windfalls and, therefore, feature current account surpluses. Resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs), on the other hand, face substantial development needs and tight external borrowing constraints. By relaxing these constraints and providing a key financing source for public investment in RRDCs, temporary resource revenues might then be associated with current account deficits, or at least low surpluses. This paper develops a neoclassical model with private and public investment and several frictions that capture pervasive features in RRDCs, including absorptive capacity constraints, inefficiencies in investment, and borrowing constraints that can be relaxed when natural resources lower the country risk premium. The model is used to study the role of investment and these frictions in shaping the current account dynamics under windfalls. Since consumption and investment decisions are optimal, the model also serves to provide current account benchmarks (norms). We apply the model to the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa and discuss how our results can be used to inform the current account norm analysis pursued at the International Monetary Fund.

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Min Zhu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 408 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2012-10-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475545197

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Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries by Mr.Rabah Arezki,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Min Zhu Pdf

In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.