Commodity Price Volatility And Inclusive Growth In Low Income Countries

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Min Zhu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 408 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2012-10-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475545197

Get Book

Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries by Mr.Rabah Arezki,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Min Zhu Pdf

In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Mustapha K. Nabli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 49 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2012-05-01
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781475553628

Get Book

Natural Resources, Volatility, and Inclusive Growth by Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Mustapha K. Nabli Pdf

This paper takes stock of the economic performance of resource rich countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over the past forty years. While those countries have maintained high levels of income per capita, they have performed poorly when going beyond the assessment based on standard income level measures. Resource rich countries in MENA have experienced relatively low and non inclusive economic growth as well as high levels of macroeconomic volatility. Important improvements in health and education have taken place but the quality of the provision of public goods and services remains an important source of concerns. Looking forward we argue that the success of economic reforms in MENA rests on the ability of those countries to invest boldly in building inclusive institutions as well as high levels of human capacity in public administrations.

Author : Ms.Stefania Fabrizio
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 86 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2012-07-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616353773

Get Book

Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks by Ms.Stefania Fabrizio Pdf

As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2012-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781463954765

Get Book

Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth by International Monetary Fund Pdf

This paper studies the impact of the level and volatility of the commodity terms of trade on economic growth, as well as on the three main growth channels: total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation, and human capital acquisition. We use the standard system GMM approach as well as a cross-sectionally augmented version of the pooled mean group (CPMG) methodology of Pesaran et al. (1999) for estimation. The latter takes account of cross-country heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, while the former controls for biases associated with simultaneity and unobserved country-specific effects. Using both annual data for 1970-2007 and five-year non-overlapping observations, we find that while commodity terms of trade growth enhances real output per capita, volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth operating mainly through lower accumulation of physical capital. Our results indicate that the negative growth effects of commodity terms of trade volatility offset the positive impact of commodity booms; and export diversification of primary commodity abundant countries contribute to faster growth. Therefore, we argue that volatility, rather than abundance per se, drives the "resource curse" paradox.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. African Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 63 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2011-09-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498338455

Get Book

Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks - Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. African Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Pdf

As part of its work to help low-income countries (LICs) manage volatility, the IMF has recently developed an analytical framework to assess vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment (see IMF, 2011a). This report draws on the results of the first Vulnerability Exercise for LICs (VE-LIC) conducted by IMF staff using this new framework. The report focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks, and discusses related policy challenges. The report is organized as follows: Chapter I reviews recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices earlier this year. Chapter II assesses current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect LICs. Chapter III discusses policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.

Author : Oli Brown,Jason Gibson,Alec Crawford
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2008-01-01
Category : Commodity futures
ISBN : 1894784049

Get Book

Boom Or Bust by Oli Brown,Jason Gibson,Alec Crawford Pdf

Author : Mr.Markus Eberhardt,Andrea Presbitero
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 53 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2018-07-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484366776

Get Book

Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises by Mr.Markus Eberhardt,Andrea Presbitero Pdf

We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.

Author : Mr.Kangni R Kpodar,Mr.Maelan Le Goff,Mr.Raju J Singh
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 35 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2019-03-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498303569

Get Book

Financial Deepening, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Growth Volatility in Low-Income Countries by Mr.Kangni R Kpodar,Mr.Maelan Le Goff,Mr.Raju J Singh Pdf

This paper contributes to the literature by looking at the possible relevance of the structure of the financial system—whether financial intermediation is performed through banks or markets—for macroeconomic volatility, against the backdrop of increased policy attention on strengthening growth resilience. With low-income countries (LICs) being the most vulnerable to large and frequent terms of trade shocks, the paper focuses on a sample of 38 LICs over the period 1978-2012 and finds that banking sector development acts as a shock-absorber in poor countries, dampening the transmission of terms of trade shocks to growth volatility. Expanding the sample to 121 developing countries confirms this result, although this role of shock-absorber fades away as economies grow richer. Stock market development, by contrast, appears neither to be a shock-absorber nor a shock-amplifier for most economies. These findings are consistent across a range of econometric estimators, including fixed effect, system GMM and local projection estimates.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,World Bank
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 59 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2011-10-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498338325

Get Book

Managing Volatility in Low-Income Countries - The Role and Potential for Contingent Financial Instruments by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,World Bank Pdf

The paper examines the case for contingent financial instruments for low-income countries (LICs), from both the market and official sector. These include commodity price hedging instruments, contingent debt instruments (commodity-linked bonds, deferred repayment loans), and natural disaster insurance, for example. The paper considers the adequacy of the existing framework of ex post and ex ante support to LICs facing exogenous shocks, and examines the need for and possible constraints to greater availability of contingent instruments. Would there be a role for the international community, particularly the IMF and World Bank, in helping to address the constraints that limit development and use of these instruments?

Author : Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Publisher : Food & Agriculture Org.
Page : 98 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2018-11-08
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789251099698

Get Book

Commodities and Development Report 2017 by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Pdf

Commodity prices are projected to increase marginally until 2030. The challenge for developing countries is to foster an environment that combines fiscal, sectoral and social policies to prevent price volatility from impacting national economies.

Author : Ms.Stefania Fabrizio
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2010-03-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781589069299

Get Book

Coping with the Global Financial Crisis by Ms.Stefania Fabrizio Pdf

This forthcoming title in the Departmental Paper Series describes the special challenges facing low-income countries as economic growth contracts by an estimated 1.1 percent globally. Coping with the Crisis: Challenges Facing Low-Income Countries provides an assessment of the implications of the financial crisis for low-income countries, evaluates the short-term macroeconomic outlook for these countries, and discusses the policy challenges they face. Chapters cover the outlook for global economic growth and commodity prices, an overview of how low-income countries have been affected, fiscal policy, monetary and exchange rate policy responses, potential external financing needs and how the international community, including the IMF, can help countries meet them. The challenges ahead for low-income countries are delineated, including debt vulnerabilities and the need for countries to develop well-regulated local capital markets and banking systems, as well as enhanced public sector efficiency.

Author : Aqib Aslam,Samya Beidas-Strom,Mr.Rudolfs Bems,Oya Celasun,Sinem Kiliç Çelik,Zsoka Koczan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 49 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2016-02-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498338158

Get Book

Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom by Aqib Aslam,Samya Beidas-Strom,Mr.Rudolfs Bems,Oya Celasun,Sinem Kiliç Çelik,Zsoka Koczan Pdf

Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policy makers in these economies is whether commodity windfalls influence potential output. Our analysis suggests that both actual and potential output move together with commodity terms of trade, but that actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output. The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract 1 to 21⁄4 percentage points from actual output growth annually on average during 2015-17. The forecast drag on potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.

Author : Antonio Jorge,Jorge Salazar-Carrillo
Publisher : Praeger
Page : 276 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 1997-02-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : STANFORD:36105019233670

Get Book

Price Policies and Economic Growth by Antonio Jorge,Jorge Salazar-Carrillo Pdf

An understanding of price structures and their impact on trade, productivity, and other related factors will aid in formulation of price policies promoting economic growth and development. Price formulation issues are examined within the context of nonmarket and imperfect market conditions, providing insightful linking of exchange rates and domestic prices to a wide array of factors that determine economic growth. Different facets of primary commodity price formation are explored, arriving at such conclusions as the fact that the dramatic rise in oil prices during the 1970s had little to do with the Latin American debt crisis or with the world recession that followed. Some new techniques for analysis are used, and commonly used techniques in price comparison studies are discussed.

Author : Mohd Fahmee Ab Hamid,Umar Abdul Basar,Rozilee Asid,Wan Farisan Wan Sulaiman,Elya Nabila Abdul Bahri,Nor Fatimah Che Sulaiman,Norlee Ramli
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
Page : 74 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2019-11-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781838674816

Get Book

Issues and Challenges in the Malaysian Economy by Mohd Fahmee Ab Hamid,Umar Abdul Basar,Rozilee Asid,Wan Farisan Wan Sulaiman,Elya Nabila Abdul Bahri,Nor Fatimah Che Sulaiman,Norlee Ramli Pdf

Focusing on Malaysia's shifting economic profile and position, this book offers new insights and perspectives to scholars and researchers on a range of new developments impacting on growth, such as the effects of the digital economy on job creation and the threats of environmental degradation and trade protectionism.

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2010-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455200368

Get Book

FDI Flows to Low-Income Countries by International Monetary Fund Pdf

What accounts for variations in FDI flows from advanced to developing countries? How have FDI inflows explained cross-country growth experiences? In this paper we tackle both these questions empirically for a large sample of middle and low-income countries. Two key results emerge: (i) lower borrowing costs and positive real-side external factors were increasingly important drivers of FDI outflows to low-income countries in the pre-crisis period; (ii) economic fundamentals, the strength of economic reforms, and commitment to macroeconomic discipline are crucial determinants of the growth dividends of FDI. Our paper suggests that low-income countries can turn to domestic policy solutions to mitigate the adverse effects of a potential decline in FDI in the post-crisis world.