Modelling The Consequences Of The U S China Trade War And Related Trade Frictions For The U S Chinese Australian And Global
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Modelling the Consequences of the U. S. -China Trade War and Related Trade Frictions for the U. S. , Chinese, Australian and Global by R. Waschik,J. A. Giesecke,N. H. Tran Pdf
We model the U.S.-China trade war, a potential U.S.-China trade deal, and the effects of import restrictions on Australian coal. We begin by examining the effects of the bilateral tariff exchange on the economies of the U.S., China, Australia and the rest of the world. We then go on to examine a scenario in which a U.S.-China trade deal is struck involving removal of the trade war tariffs and an undertaking by China to reduce its bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. by eliminating all pre-trade war tariffs on U.S. goods. We end by noting that there are dimensions to the U.S.-China tariff exchange that go beyond concerns on the part of the U.S. that are purely economic. In this context, the tariff exchange can be viewed in part as a continuation of a wider recent pattern of use of trade instruments to advance political aims. Australia itself appears to have been subject to such instruments, with reports of a slowdown in processing of Australian coal imports through Chinese ports. We simulate the effects on Australia and China of a rise in Chinese barriers to Australian coal imports
China-us Trade Frictions Shaping New Equilibriums With The Eu And The Us: Towards A New Multilateralism Or Tripolarism by Xugang Yu,Mario Tettamanti,Cristiano Rizzi Pdf
This book shows the impact of the recent trade tensions between China and the US on the world trade order, and how parties have reached a deal (so called 'phase one', January 2020), which could lead to a more comprehensive agreement, and the consequences of these 'adjustments' in shaping new equilibriums.After 40 years, China has transformed into an economic superpower, which could now rival the US. This has evoked some concerns, and put the US in an uncomfortable position, as the US views the rise of China as a threat to its predominance and interests. However, China's development and its increasing economic power, which is a direct consequence of the ongoing reform process, is unstoppable.The confrontation between China and the US will favor Chinese expansion into the EU not only because the EU offers a more receptive environment for Chinese Foreign Direct Investment, but also because the EU and China have more in common if we consider the Belt And Road Initiative and the new bilateral investment agreement which is under negotiation. The EU, not only represents the final destination of the BRI, but also a more logical and convenient trade partner for China.The shift of Chinese attention toward the EU will also change the equilibrium between China, the EU and the US, bring forth the negotiation of new trade agreements, and move the entire international community towards a new world trade order and a new multilateralism which might evolve into a tripolarism.
Author : Lawrence J. Lau Publisher : The Chinese University Press Page : 216 pages File Size : 47,7 Mb Release : 2018-12-14 Category : Political Science ISBN : 9789882371125
The China-U.S. Trade War and Future Economic Relations by Lawrence J. Lau Pdf
The relation between China and the United States is arguably the most important bilateral relation in the world today. The U.S. and China are respectively the largest and the second largest economies in the world. They are also respectively the largest and the second largest trading nations in the world as well as each other’s most important trading partner. If China and the U.S. work together as partners towards a common goal, many things are possible. However, there exist significant friction and potential conflict in their economic relations. The large and persistent U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit is one of the problems. It is essential to know the true state of the China-U.S. trade balance before effective solutions can be devised to narrow the trade surplus or deficit. The impacts and potential impacts of the 2018 trade war between China and the U.S. on the two economies are analysed and discussed. The longterm forces that underlie the economic relations between the two countries beyond the 2018 trade war are examined. In this connection, how a “new type of major-power relation” between the two countries can help to keep the competition friendly and avert a war between them is explored. ~~~~~~~~ Lawrence J. Lau’s timely The China-U.S. Trade War and Future Economic Relations is full of careful analysis, penetrating insight and helpful suggestions from the world’s preeminent economist on this relationship. —Michael J. Boskin Tully M. Friedman Professor of Economics, Stanford University Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This sober and systematic study of U.S.-China trade relations and of technological development in the two countries is particularly timely. Lawrence Lau is one of the world’s foremost economists working on these issues. —Dwight H. Perkins Harold Hitchings Burbank Professor of Political Economy, Emeritus Former Chair, Department of Economics, Harvard University This is a timely and penetrating analysis of the China-U.S. trade and economic relations, from its origins to its impacts and to a way forward. —Yingyi Qian Chairman of the Council, Westlake University Former Dean, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University Counsellor of the State Council, People’s Republic of China Lawrence Lau’s book on the current U.S.-China trade war is insightful, balanced and comprehensive; rich in data on trade, investment, science and technology. It is essential reading for anyone who wants to get past the headlines. —A. Michael Spence Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences (2001) Senior Fellow, The Hoover Institution, Stanford University Lawrence Lau brings light in the form of rigorous honest fact-based economic analysis to a subject where most of the discussion has been heated bluster, false claims, and political rhetoric. —Lawrence H. Summers Former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury; Former President, Harvard University There is no topic more important, or more timely, or more urgent, than the China-U.S. trade war. Professor Lau is the ideal person to write about the implications of the China-U.S. trade war and the proposed resolution. —Tung Chee-Hwa Vice-Chairman, Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference National Committee Chairman, China-U.S. Exchange Foundation The history of Sino-American relations, to a great extent, has been a shared history. Lawrence Lau’s timely and penetrating study will tell us it is still in best interest for both countries if they continue to pursue a shared journey and destination instead of parting ways. —Xu Guoqi Kerry Group Professor in Globalization History, The University of Hong Kong Author of Chinese and Americans: A Shared History This beautifully composed book uses nontechnical language to unravel the intricacies of the 2018 U.S.-China trade war, together with its long-term impact. I learned a lot from reading it. —Chen-Ning Yang Nobel Laureate in Physics (1957)
Trade frictions between China and the US by Markus Karmann Pdf
Seminar paper from the year 2010 in the subject Economics - International Economic Relations, grade: 1,1, The University of Hong Kong, language: English, abstract: History plays a funny role in repeating itself. With light of the current trade frictions between the United States and China, their trading histories become increasingly relevant. Little did both sides know the substantial impact of President Nixon’s 1972 meeting with Chairman Mao—the event laid the basis for growth and development between both countries for the next several decades: into a present where the US dominates while China has the fastest growing financial market of the Twenty-first Century. Up until recently, their trade relations have been, if not smooth, at least civil. However, the increasing number of disputes in trade and policy-making may adversely affect the development of Sino-US relations on the world market. As the international society turns their critiquing eyes towards the friction currently plaguing the US and China, the two world powers are placed in the precarious position of settling these disputes to not only decide the future of their own fragile partnership, but the ultimate direction of the world trading scene.
The China-US Trade War and South Asian Economies by Rahul Nath Choudhury Pdf
The USA and China, the world’s largest economic powers, have been engaging in trade war since January 2018. The impact of this trade war is felt not only by US and China but also by other economies who have economic ties with them. This book provides insights into damages caused by this trade war. The first section of the book looks at the impact of the trade war on the global economy. It goes deeper to examine the trade war impact on the South Asian region. It is well-known that any imposition of new tariffs or an increase in existing tariffs would make imports more costly and render the exported goods less competitive. Yet, the book posits that the trade war has provided a window of opportunity to other countries not caught in it. The South Asian region, with countries like Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka, has actually reaped benefits from the widening trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies. This book will be a useful reference to help policymakers to undertake informed decisions and initiate programs to minimise the trade war impact.
Author : Carlos Caceres,Diego A. Cerdeiro,Rui Mano Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 36 pages File Size : 43,6 Mb Release : 2019-07-03 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781498325677
Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model by Carlos Caceres,Diego A. Cerdeiro,Rui Mano Pdf
This paper studies the potential long-term effects of three illustrative scenarios using a multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model calibrated to 165 countries. The first scenario estimates effects from potential U.S. auto tariffs. The second analyzes a ‘transactional deal’ between the U.S. and China to close their bilateral deficit. The third, in the absence of such a deal, considers a potential escalation in bilateral tariffs between the two countries. Some common features emerge across all three scenarios: the overall effects on GDP tend to be relatively small albeit negative in most cases, including for the U.S. However, sectoral disruptions and positive and negative spillovers to highly exposed ‘by-stander’ economies can be large. There is also heterogeneity at the subnational level in the U.S. -- richer states tend to benefit from certain scenarios. We discuss how estimated impacts depend on the extent to which the U.S. is able to re-shore production in protected sectors. These results can usefully complement estimates obtained through macroeconomic models that are better suited to capture dynamic effects, such as those stemming from trade policy uncertainty. More generally, our results both underscore the value of adhering to the existing levels of liberalization, and highlight the risks associated with a fragmentation or even a complete breakdown of the trading system.
The Political Logic of the US–China Trade War by Shiping Hua Pdf
This is the first comprehensive study by the world’s leading scholars about the political logic of the U.S.-China trade war that started during the Trump administration. The book is divided into three parts. The first part looks at changed leadership styles of the two countries in the last few years. It also examines the liberal international order since World War II in which the trade war emerged. It then explores the theoretical perspectives from both the United States and China that are related to the trade war. The second part is about the domestic factors that impacted on the trade war from China’s perspective. These factors include China’s institutional adaptation of the new international environment, the radicalization of the Chinese political discourse, and Big Power Diplomacy. The third part explores the U.S. domestic factors that impacted the trade war, such as the Trump administration’s different China policy in general, the role played by the U.S. Congress, business lobby, and the transition of foreign policy from a Wilsonian World Order to Jacksonian Nationalism.
The China-US Trade War by Guoyong Liang,Haoyuan Ding Pdf
This book provides a timely account of the US-China trade war with insights into its causes and consequences. It analyses the context and causes of the trade war, the intertwined processes of tariff combat and trade negotiations, and the impacts on international trade among others.
China-US Trade War and Trade Talk by Miaojie Yu Pdf
This book focuses on the current tension between China and the US on trade imbalance and discusses China’s opening-up strategy in the context of this trade conflict. The book is divided into two parts. In the first part, the author presents a detailed analysis of the current state of the China-US trade relationship and describes the potential impacts of China-US trade conflicts. The topics covered in this section include the re-estimate of US trade deficit with China, China’s non-market economy status, the impact of China-US bilateral investment treaties on China’s manufacturing sectors, and the estimated welfare losses and gains resulting from the China-US trade war. Part II explores China’s possible response and development strategy in the context of de-globalization. Based on an overview of China’s three stages of economic reform and opening-up policy in the past four decades, the author discusses the future tasks that would move the country into a new stage of all-round opening up. Lastly, the book comprehensively reviews the role of processing trade, trade liberalization, and firm performance in promoting China’s miraculous economic growth so as to foster a better understanding of China’s experience of opening up over the past 4 decades.
Free Trade and the US–China Trade War by Yoon Heo Pdf
This book provides an analysis of the global trading system and its implications. The author uses network theory to examine the sustainability of the free trade system and its future. The book attempts to find out what the future of free trade could be and how the global trading system would unfold. The book assesses four main waves of challenges to free trade and open society: the COVID-19 pandemic, the US–China trade war, economic nationalism, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution. While some of these challenges have been casting their shadows on the global economic system for some time, others are relatively novel, and their full effects are yet to be seen. This book also looks at the challenges they would present to multilateralism and global trade development. This book will interest those who wish to have a better understanding of the US–China trade war and the challenges to the global trading system.
The China–US Trade War by Guoyong Liang,Haoyuan Ding Pdf
An unprecedented trade war broke out between the world’s two largest economies in 2018 and escalated subsequently. It is the first major economic conflict happened in the era of globalization, with its aftermath going far beyond trade. The trade war weighs heavily on China and the United States and threatens the world economy and the global trading system. This book provides a timely account of the US-China trade war with insights into its causes and consequences. Examining through the lenses of both history and theory, it analyses the context and causes of the trade war, the intertwined processes of tariff combat and trade negotiations, and the impacts on international trade, foreign direct investment, macroeconomic performance and firm behaviour. It also addresses the long-term strategic and geopolitical implications of the ongoing trade and economic confrontation. The book will appeal to those interested in international economics and politics, global governance and development.
The U.S.-China Trade War by Lars Willnat,Louisa Ha Pdf
"The U.S.-China Trade War draws on data from three national surveys, three content analyses, computational topic modeling, and rhetoric analysis to shed light on the twenty-first century's most high-profile contest over global trade so far. Through diverse empirical studies, the contributors examine the effects of news framing and agenda-setting during the battle of words and tariffs in both Chinese and US media"--
The US-China trade war instigated by President Trump has thrown the multilateral trading system into a crisis. Drawing on vast interview and documentary materials, Hopewell shows how US-China conflict had already paralyzed the system of international rules and institutions governing trade. The China Paradox - the fact that China is both a developing country and an economic powerhouse - creates significant challenges for global trade governance and rule-making. While China demands exemptions from global trade disciplines as a developing country, the US refuses to extend special treatment to its rival. The implications of this conflict extend far beyond trade, impeding pro-development and pro-environment reforms of the global trading system. As one of the first analyses of the implications of US-China rivalry for the governance of global trade, this book is crucial to our understanding of China's impact on the global trading system and on the liberal international economic order.
US-China Trade Disputes by Gary Clyde Hufbauer,Yee Wong,Ketki Sheth Pdf
As China continues its rise as a great power, The United States Congress and the administration wrestle with one another over the strategies to shape US-China economic relations. What major disputes now, and looming on the horizon, will shape future US-China relations? This book examines these issues and offers suggestions for both sides.
Tariff Structure, Intermediate Goods, and China-U. S. Trade Friction by Haichao Fan Pdf
"Focusing on the interconnection of tariff structure, international trade and welfare evaluation, the book investigates the characteristics of tariff structures of China and the U.S. in recent years and measures the impact of the Sino-U.S. trade friction that started in 2018. The first part of the book discusses levels and evolution trends of tariff systems of China and the U.S. from 2000 to 2014 and makes a comparison between two countries' tariff structures. The second part centers on the Sino-U.S. trade friction in 2018, analyzing its development, overall impact on welfare and relevant impact mechanisms. The author draws on the quantitative analysis method currently prevailing in the field of international trade, taking global value chains, intermediate goods and variable markup into consideration. In contrast to the research conclusion applying standard trade theory, the result indicates that either unilateral imposition of additional tariffs or bilateral tariff friction will give rise to the deteriorated welfare level of both countries. The book will appeal to academics and policy makers interested in international trade, China-U.S. relation and the trade friction"--
