Download Full eBooks in PDF
Models Of The Oil Market Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle version is available to download in english. Read online anytime anywhere directly from your device. Click on the download button below to get a free pdf file of Models Of The Oil Market book. This book definitely worth reading, it is an incredibly well-written.
Author : J. Crémer,D. Salehi-Isfahani
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2013-07-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781136469770
Economists have proposed a large variety of models of the oil market and this survey integrates them in a coherent framework.
Author : Jacques Cremer,Djavad Salehi-Isfahani
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 106 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2003
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 0415269075
Author : Adalat Muradov,Yadulla Hasanli,Nazim Hajiyev
Publisher : Springer
Page : 184 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2019-04-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030114947
This book develops new econometric models to analyze and forecast the world market price of oil. The authors construct ARIMA and Trend models to forecast oil prices, taking into consideration outside factors such as political turmoil and solar activity on the price of oil. Incorporating historical and contemporary market trends, the authors are able to make medium and long-term forecasting results. In the first chapter, the authors perform a broad spectrum analysis of the theoretical and methodological challenges of oil price forecasting. In the second chapter, the authors build and test the econometric models needed for the forecasts. The final chapter of the text brings together the conclusions they reached through applying the models to their research. This book will be useful to students in economics, particularly those in upper-level courses on forecasting and econometrics as well as to politicians and policy makers in oil-producing countries, oil importing countries, and relevant international organizations.
Author : Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh,Mr.Sami Ben Naceur,Mr.Oussama Kanaan,Christophe Rault
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 35 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2018-05-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484353622
Our paper examines the effect of oil price changes on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets using nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results reveal that GCC stock markets do not have similar sensitivities to oil price changes. We document the presence of stock market returns’ asymmetric reactions in some GCC countries, but not for others. In Kuwait’s case, negative oil price changes exert larger impacts on stock returns than positive oil price changes. When considering the asymmetry with respect to the magnitude of oil price variation, we find that Oman’s and Qatar’s stock markets are more sensitive to large oil price changes than to small ones. Our results highlight the importance of economic stabilization and reform policies that can potentially reduce the sensitivity of stock returns to oil price changes, especially with regard to the existence of asymmetric behavior.
Author : Michael Grillot
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 164 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 1983
Category : Petroleum industry and trade
ISBN : MINN:30000010523367
Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki,Zoltan Jakab,Mr.Douglas Laxton,Mr.Akito Matsumoto,Armen Nurbekyan,Hou Wang,Jiaxiong Yao
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2017-01-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475572360
This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Author : Samya Beidas-Strom,Mr.Andrea Pescatori
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2014-12-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498303842
How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Author : J. Crémer,D. Salehi-Isfahani
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 119 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2013-07-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781136469701
Economists have proposed a large variety of models of the oil market and this survey integrates them in a coherent framework.
Author : Paul W. MacAvoy
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 234 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 1982
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : STANFORD:36105037382384
Author : Anthony Ernest Reinsch,Kevin J. Brown,James O. Stanford,Canadian Energy Research Institute
Publisher : Calgary : Canadian Energy Research Institute
Page : 348 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 1988
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39015015333274
Provides a brief discussion of world oil market developments since the early 1970s, identifying the fundamental characteristics and features of the market through to the end of this century. It also examines the history and current structure of world oil demand, analyzed in terms of demand for crude oil products in the various regions. A number of key factors and fundamental trends in crude oil consumption are identified, which can be expected to play an important role in future oil demand. In addition, the study provides an examination of the history and current structure of world crude oil supply, emphasizing the methodology employed in representing crude oil production, reserves additions and productive capacity development within the analytical framework. A series of sensitivity cases are presented together with the reference case crude oil market scenario generated by the integration of the demand- and supply-side analyses. Finally, the study's authors draw together the critical conclusions arising from the analysis.
Author : Kenneth L. Kincel,W. Calvin Kilgore,Mark Rodekohor
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 92 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 1978
Category : Gasoline
ISBN : UCSD:31822028929008
Author : Salvatore Carollo
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 212 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2011-12-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781119962724
It’s a fair bet that most of what you think you know about oil prices is wrong. Despite the massive price fluctuations of the past decade, the received wisdom on the subject has remained fundamentally unchanged since the 1970s. When asked, most people – including politicians, financial analysts and pundits – will respond with a tired litany of reasons ranging from increased Chinese and Indian competition for diminishing resources and tensions in the Middle East, to manipulation by OPEC and exorbitant petrol taxes in the EU. Yet the facts belie these explanations. For instance, what really happened in late 2008 when, in just a few weeks, oil prices plummeted from $144 dollars to $37 dollars a barrel? Did Chinese and Indian demand suddenly dry up? Did Middle East conflicts magically resolve themselves? Did OPEC flood the market with crude? In each case the answer is a definitive no – quite the opposite in fact. Industry expert Salvatore Carollo explains that the truth behind today’s increasingly volatile oil market is that over the past two decades oil prices have come untethered from all classical notions of supply and demand and have transcended any country’s, consortium’s, cartel’s, or corporate entity’s powers to control them. At play is a subtler, more complex game than most analysts realise (or are unwilling to admit to), a very dangerous game involving runaway financial speculation, self-defeating government policymaking and a concerted disinvestment in refinery capacity among the oil majors. In Understanding Oil Prices Carollo identifies the key players in this dangerous game, exploring their competing interests and motivations, their moves and countermoves. Beginning with the 1976 oil embargo and moving through the 1986 Chernobyl incident, the implementation of the US Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and the precipitous expansion of the oil futures market since the turn of the century, he traces the vast structural changes which have occurred within the oil industry over the past four decades, identifying their economic, social and geopolitical drivers, and analysing their fallout in the global economy. He explores the oil industry’s decision to scale down refining capacity in the face of increasing demand and the effects of global shortages of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, chemical feedstocks, lubricants and other essential finished products, and describes how, beginning in the year 2000, the oil futures market detached itself almost completely from the crude market, leading to the assetization of oil, and the crippling impact reckless speculation in oil futures has had on the global economy. Finally he proposes new, more sophisticated models that economists and financial analysts can use to make sense of today’s oil market, while offering industry leaders and government policymakers prescriptions for stabilising the market to ensure a relatively steady flow of affordable oil. A concise, authoritative guide to understanding the complex, oft misunderstood oil markets, Understanding Oil Prices is an important resource for energy market participants, commodity traders and investors, as well as business journalists and government policymakers alike.
Author : Noureddine Krichene
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 36 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2007-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UCSD:31822034966135
This paper formulated a short-run model, with an explicit role for monetary policy, for analyzing world oil and gas markets. The model described carefully the parameters of these markets and their vulnerability to business cycles. Estimates showed that short-run demand for oil and gas was price- inelastic, relatively income-elastic, and was influenced by interest and exchange rates; short-run supply was price-inelastic. Short-run price inelasticity could be a source for high volatility in oil and gas prices, and could confer to producers a temporary market power. Being simultaneous and incorporating interest and exchange rates, the model could be useful in short-term forecasting of oil and gas outputs and prices under policy scenarios.
Author : United States. General Accounting Office
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 136 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 1993
Category : Energy policy
ISBN : STANFORD:36105121628973
Author : Bassam Fattouh
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2022
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1373352287