Modernizing The Framework For Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

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Modernizing the Framework for Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

International Monetary Fund
Modernizing the Framework for Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 59 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2011-05-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498338639

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Modernizing the Framework for Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis by International Monetary Fund Pdf

Modernizing the framework for fiscal policy and public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) has become necessary, particularly in light of the recent crisis and rising sustainability concerns in some advanced economies. While recognizing the inherently challenging nature of such analysis, this paper highlights areas where improvements are needed and makes both general and specific proposals on how this could be achieved. It also proposes to move to a risk-based approach to DSAs for all market-access countries, where the depth and extent of analysis would be commensurate with concerns regarding sustainability, while a reasonable level of standardization would be maintained.

Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt

Cansın Kemal Can,Necmiddin Bağdadioğlu
Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt Book PDF

Author : Cansın Kemal Can,Necmiddin Bağdadioğlu
Publisher : Cambridge Scholars Publishing
Page : 156 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2021-06-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781527570788

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Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt by Cansın Kemal Can,Necmiddin Bağdadioğlu Pdf

Despite its beneficial aspects, public debt can be hazardous for macroeconomic performance should it reach unrepayable levels as a consequence of snowballing explosive trends. Failure to monitor the existing trend in public debt in order to detect such divergences from the stable path, and the lack of an adaptive public financial management can potentially culminate in a public debt crisis whose disruptive economic impacts can permeate all sectors of the economy very swiftly. However, public debt sustainability is a vague concept with no straightforward operational definitions. In addition, its multi-faceted nature is an impediment for the implementation of real-world appraisal of the fiscal posture from a stability viewpoint. As such, quantifying the public debt sustainability is essential for overhauling the fiscal policies so as to avoid a potential debt crisis stemming from malfunctioning fiscal policies. This book provides the reader with a practical and straightforward framework that outlines a tool for undertaking public debt sustainability analysis. In order to guide further empirical investigations, the discussion in this book is underpinned by a real-world application of the model which highlights the practical aspects of the tool with reference to time-varying empirical evidence from a developing country.

Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market-Access Countries

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market Access Countries Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 55 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2013-05-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498341844

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Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market-Access Countries by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf

The framework for fiscal policy and public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) in market-access countries (MACs) was reviewed by the Executive Board in August 2011.1 The review responded to shortcomings in identifying fiscal vulnerabilities and assessing risks to debt sustainability against the backdrop of increased concerns over fiscal policy and public debt sustainability in many advanced economies.

A Stochastic Framework for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

Gabriel Di Bella
A Stochastic Framework for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis Book PDF

Author : Gabriel Di Bella
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2008-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UCSD:31822036950061

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A Stochastic Framework for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis by Gabriel Di Bella Pdf

This paper proposes a framework for public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) that is complementary to that generally used by IFIs. The DSA in this paper has three components: (i) an integrated and consistent accounting framework for the Consolidated Public Sector (CPS); (ii) the estimation of an appropriate, and country-specific debt threshold, following the approach proposed by Reinhart, Rogoff and Savastano (2003); and (iii) a method for the calculation of the CPS primary balance to achieve the desired debt targets, without resorting to ad-hoc assumptions for the values of the macroeconomic variables during the planning horizon, in the spirit of Garcia and Rigobon (2004) and Celasun, Debrun and Ostry (2006). The paper uses this approach to analyze the sustainability of the Dominican Republic's Public Debt.

Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty

Rossen Rozenov
Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Rossen Rozenov
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2017-03-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475587029

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Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty by Rossen Rozenov Pdf

The paper offers an approach to assessing the sustainability of public debt taking into account the effect of fiscal policy on output, as well as uncertainty in the model parameters and system dynamics. Uncertainty is specified in general terms, and the analysis is based on the notion of invariant sets. Examples are provided to illustrate how the method can be applied in practice.

Public Debt Sustainability

Barry W. Poulson,John Merrifield,Steve H. Hanke
Public Debt Sustainability Book PDF

Author : Barry W. Poulson,John Merrifield,Steve H. Hanke
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Page : 389 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2022-01-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781666902570

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Public Debt Sustainability by Barry W. Poulson,John Merrifield,Steve H. Hanke Pdf

As countries recover from the coronavirus pandemic, they are confronted with an even more challenging debt crisis. Xavier Debrun argues in the foreword that in deciding where we go from here that there is no longer a consensus regarding the optimum design and enforcement of fiscal rules. Rather we must address a series of questions and challenges to the conventional wisdom. This book provides an opportunity for scholars to explore these questions from an international perspective, with reference to European countries, and emerging nations as well as the United States.

Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 124 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2021-02-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513568324

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Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf

A careful review has revealed significant scope to modernize and better align the MAC DSA with its objectives and the IMF’s lending framework. This note proposes replacing the current framework with a new methodology based on risk assessments at three different horizons. Extensive testing has shown that the proposed framework has much better predictive accuracy than the current one. In addition to predicting sovereign stress, the framework can be used to derive statements about debt stabilization under current policies and about debt sustainability.

Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia

Benno Ferrarini,Arief Ramayandi,Raghbendra Jha
Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia Book PDF

Author : Benno Ferrarini,Arief Ramayandi,Raghbendra Jha
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 227 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2012-11-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781136199899

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Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia by Benno Ferrarini,Arief Ramayandi,Raghbendra Jha Pdf

Addressing the Global Financial Crisis required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent build up of public debt, in particular its sustainability, have moved centre stage in the policy debate. If the Asia Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth its public debt must be sustainable. The book addresses this issue for Asia Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: China, India and Vietnam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons why there is increased attention on debt related issues and outline the contents of the volume. The book also includes fiscal indicators for Developing Member Countries (DMCs) as categorized by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Debt sustainability for these countries is assessed through extant approaches and with the most updated data sources. It also surveys the extant literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to debt sustainability and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. The book highlights the importance of doing individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g. federal), and the like as well as in the impact of debt on interest rates. It provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses of China, India and Vietnam. The book is a comprehensive analytical and empirical update of the sustainability public debt in developing Asia. It breakes new ground in that various characteristics of the sustainability that have not yet been explored in the literature which, nevertheless, are crucial to understanding it. As a consequence, the policy analysis is based on firmer footings than in the extant literature and should prove useful to graduate students, researchers as well as policymakers.

Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice

Craig Burnside
Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice Book PDF

Author : Craig Burnside
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 312 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 082135874X

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Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice by Craig Burnside Pdf

Topics discussed in this publication include: an introduction to theoretical and practical aspects of fiscal sustainability; theoretical prerequisites for fiscal sustainability analysis; debt indicators in the measurement of vulnerability; cyclical adjustment of budget surplus; pro-cyclical fiscal policy using Mexico's fiscal accounts as a case study; fiscal rules and the experience of Chile; currency crises and models for deal with financing costs.

Restoring Public Debt Sustainability

George Kopits
Restoring Public Debt Sustainability Book PDF

Author : George Kopits
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 300 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2013-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780199644476

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Restoring Public Debt Sustainability by George Kopits Pdf

Restoring Public Debt Sustainability represents the first comprehensive survey of a new generation of independent fiscal institutions, established to promote transparency in public finances through real-time monitoring of the soundness of budgetary policymaking. The chapters, written by heads of the institutions, as well as distinguished policy analysts and academics, explore the rationale and experience of these fiscal watchdogs. Consequently, useful lessons and implications are drawn for the design and practical operation of such institutions. The timeliness of the volume is underscored by the potential role of fiscal watchdogs in containing the public debt crisis that has engulfed a number of countries. Specifically, the recent proliferation of these institutions has been largely in response to the need for enhancing policy credibility of highly indebted governments in financial markets, and for strengthening the quality of economic governance-especially in the current European context. The first part of the book deals with key analytical and institutional issues: the political environment, the scope and limits of these institutions, and a comparison to delegation of monetary policymaking to an independent body. The second part contains case studies of institutions that were born as a result of domestic developments. The third part presents the experience of institutions in Sweden, Hungary, and the United Kingdom, whose origins can be traced directly or indirectly to an earlier or a recent external financial crisis. The chapters are written from a multidisciplinary (economic, financial, political, legal) perspective, intended for academics, researchers, and practitioners alike.

Fiscal Sustainability

Mr.Evan Tanner
Fiscal Sustainability Book PDF

Author : Mr.Evan Tanner
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 49 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2013-04-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484351499

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Fiscal Sustainability by Mr.Evan Tanner Pdf

This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA should be linked to some objective regarding the distribution of fiscal burdens and distortions over time (in the tradition of Barro’s 1979 tax smoothing objective). The paper discusses objective functions that yield simple and transparent fiscal policy rules.

Public Debt Sustainability and Management in a Compound Option Framework

Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Public Debt Sustainability and Management in a Compound Option Framework Book PDF

Author : Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2010
Category : Asset-liability management
ISBN : IND:30000115533923

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Public Debt Sustainability and Management in a Compound Option Framework by Jorge A. Chan-Lau Pdf

This paper introduces the Asset and Liability Management (ALM) compound option model. The model builds on the observation that the public sector net worth in a multi-period setting corresponds to the value of an option on total government assets. Hence, the ALM compound option model is better suited for analyzing and evaluating the risk profile of public debt than existing one-period models, and is especially useful for analyzing the soundness of exit strategies from the large fiscal expansions undertaken by G-20 countries in the wake of the recent financial crisis. As an illustration, the model is used to analyze the risk profile and sustainability of Australia's public debt under different policies.

Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Guidance Note on the Bank Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 72 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2018-02-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498307260

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Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf

Low-income countries (LICs) face significant challenges in meeting their Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while at the same time ensuring that their external debt remains sustainable. In April 2005, the Executive Boards of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Development Association (IDA) approved the introduction of the Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF), a tool developed jointly by IMF and World Bank staff to conduct public and external debt sustainability analysis in low-income countries. The DSF has since been serving to help guide the borrowing decisions of LICs, provide guidance for creditors’ lending and grant allocation decisions, and improve World Bank and IMF assessments and policy advice. The latest review of the framework was approved by the Executive Boards in September 2017. This introduced reforms to ensure that the DSF remains appropriate for the rapidly changing financing landscape facing LICs and to further improve insights into debt vulnerabilities. This note provides operational and technical guidance on the implementation of the reformed framework.

Public Debt, Sustainability and Economic Growth

Alfred Greiner,Bettina Fincke
Public Debt Sustainability and Economic Growth Book PDF

Author : Alfred Greiner,Bettina Fincke
Publisher : Springer
Page : 271 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2014-10-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3319093479

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Public Debt, Sustainability and Economic Growth by Alfred Greiner,Bettina Fincke Pdf

Public debt has become a severe problem for a great many economies. While the effects of tax policies on the allocation of resources are readily derived, the mechanisms that make public deficits and debt influence the economy are not so easily understood. This book elaborates on the effects of public debt starting from the intertemporal budget constraint of the government. It is shown under which conditions a government can stick to the intertemporal budget constraint and then, demonstrated how public debt affects the growth process and welfare in market economies. The effects are derived for models with complete labor markets as well as taking into account labor market imperfections. The focus in this book is on fiscal policy issues, but it also deals with monetary policy aspects. The theoretical analysis is complemented with empirical time series analyses on debt sustainability and with panel studies dealing with the relationship between public debt and economic growth.

Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt

CANSIN KEMAL. CAN,Can Cansä±n Kemal,Necmiddin Bağdadioğlu
Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt Book PDF

Author : CANSIN KEMAL. CAN,Can Cansä±n Kemal,Necmiddin Bağdadioğlu
Publisher : Cambridge Scholars Publishing
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2021-08
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1527569853

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Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt by CANSIN KEMAL. CAN,Can Cansä±n Kemal,Necmiddin Bağdadioğlu Pdf

Despite its beneficial aspects, public debt can be hazardous for macroeconomic performance should it reach unrepayable levels as a consequence of snowballing explosive trends. Failure to monitor the existing trend in public debt in order to detect such divergences from the stable path, and the lack of an adaptive public financial management can potentially culminate in a public debt crisis whose disruptive economic impacts can permeate all sectors of the economy very swiftly. However, public debt sustainability is a vague concept with no straightforward operational definitions. In addition, its multi-faceted nature is an impediment for the implementation of real-world appraisal of the fiscal posture from a stability viewpoint. As such, quantifying the public debt sustainability is essential for overhauling the fiscal policies so as to avoid a potential debt crisis stemming from malfunctioning fiscal policies. This book provides the reader with a practical and straightforward framework that outlines a tool for undertaking public debt sustainability analysis. In order to guide further empirical investigations, the discussion in this book is underpinned by a real-world application of the model which highlights the practical aspects of the tool with reference to time-varying empirical evidence from a developing country.