Public Debt Sustainability And Economic Growth

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Public Debt, Sustainability and Economic Growth

Alfred Greiner,Bettina Fincke
Public Debt Sustainability and Economic Growth Book PDF

Author : Alfred Greiner,Bettina Fincke
Publisher : Springer
Page : 284 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2014-10-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319093482

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Public Debt, Sustainability and Economic Growth by Alfred Greiner,Bettina Fincke Pdf

Public debt has become a severe problem for a great many economies. While the effects of tax policies on the allocation of resources are readily derived, the mechanisms that make public deficits and debt influence the economy are not so easily understood. This book elaborates on the effects of public debt starting from the intertemporal budget constraint of the government. It is shown under which conditions a government can stick to the intertemporal budget constraint and then, demonstrated how public debt affects the growth process and welfare in market economies. The effects are derived for models with complete labor markets as well as taking into account labor market imperfections. The focus in this book is on fiscal policy issues, but it also deals with monetary policy aspects. The theoretical analysis is complemented with empirical time series analyses on debt sustainability and with panel studies dealing with the relationship between public debt and economic growth.

Public Debt and Economic Growth

Alfred Greiner,Bettina Fincke
Public Debt and Economic Growth Book PDF

Author : Alfred Greiner,Bettina Fincke
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 148 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2009-07-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783642017452

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Public Debt and Economic Growth by Alfred Greiner,Bettina Fincke Pdf

Starting point of this book is the observation that an increase in public debt must be accompanied by a rise in the primary surplus of the government to guarantee sustainability of public debt. The book first elaborates on that principle from a theoretical point of view and then tests whether empirical evidence for that rule can be found. Additional tests are implemented to gain further evidence on sustainability of public debt. In order to allow for time varying coefficients penalized spline estimations are performed. The theoretical chapters present endogenous growth models and assume that the primary surplus rises as public debt increases so that sustainability of public debt is given. Implications of public deficits and debt are studied assuming full employment and for unemployment. The conclusion summarizes the findings and compares the results of the different models. Finally, policy implications are given showing how governments should deal with high public debt to GDP ratios.

Public Debt Sustainability

Barry W. Poulson,John Merrifield,Steve H. Hanke
Public Debt Sustainability Book PDF

Author : Barry W. Poulson,John Merrifield,Steve H. Hanke
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Page : 389 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2022-01-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781666902570

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Public Debt Sustainability by Barry W. Poulson,John Merrifield,Steve H. Hanke Pdf

As countries recover from the coronavirus pandemic, they are confronted with an even more challenging debt crisis. Xavier Debrun argues in the foreword that in deciding where we go from here that there is no longer a consensus regarding the optimum design and enforcement of fiscal rules. Rather we must address a series of questions and challenges to the conventional wisdom. This book provides an opportunity for scholars to explore these questions from an international perspective, with reference to European countries, and emerging nations as well as the United States.

Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt

Cansın Kemal Can,Necmiddin Bağdadioğlu
Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt Book PDF

Author : Cansın Kemal Can,Necmiddin Bağdadioğlu
Publisher : Cambridge Scholars Publishing
Page : 156 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2021-06-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781527570788

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Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt by Cansın Kemal Can,Necmiddin Bağdadioğlu Pdf

Despite its beneficial aspects, public debt can be hazardous for macroeconomic performance should it reach unrepayable levels as a consequence of snowballing explosive trends. Failure to monitor the existing trend in public debt in order to detect such divergences from the stable path, and the lack of an adaptive public financial management can potentially culminate in a public debt crisis whose disruptive economic impacts can permeate all sectors of the economy very swiftly. However, public debt sustainability is a vague concept with no straightforward operational definitions. In addition, its multi-faceted nature is an impediment for the implementation of real-world appraisal of the fiscal posture from a stability viewpoint. As such, quantifying the public debt sustainability is essential for overhauling the fiscal policies so as to avoid a potential debt crisis stemming from malfunctioning fiscal policies. This book provides the reader with a practical and straightforward framework that outlines a tool for undertaking public debt sustainability analysis. In order to guide further empirical investigations, the discussion in this book is underpinned by a real-world application of the model which highlights the practical aspects of the tool with reference to time-varying empirical evidence from a developing country.

Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia

Benno Ferrarini,Arief Ramayandi,Raghbendra Jha
Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia Book PDF

Author : Benno Ferrarini,Arief Ramayandi,Raghbendra Jha
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 227 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2012-11-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781136199899

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Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia by Benno Ferrarini,Arief Ramayandi,Raghbendra Jha Pdf

Addressing the Global Financial Crisis required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent build up of public debt, in particular its sustainability, have moved centre stage in the policy debate. If the Asia Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth its public debt must be sustainable. The book addresses this issue for Asia Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: China, India and Vietnam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons why there is increased attention on debt related issues and outline the contents of the volume. The book also includes fiscal indicators for Developing Member Countries (DMCs) as categorized by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Debt sustainability for these countries is assessed through extant approaches and with the most updated data sources. It also surveys the extant literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to debt sustainability and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. The book highlights the importance of doing individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g. federal), and the like as well as in the impact of debt on interest rates. It provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses of China, India and Vietnam. The book is a comprehensive analytical and empirical update of the sustainability public debt in developing Asia. It breakes new ground in that various characteristics of the sustainability that have not yet been explored in the literature which, nevertheless, are crucial to understanding it. As a consequence, the policy analysis is based on firmer footings than in the extant literature and should prove useful to graduate students, researchers as well as policymakers.

Public Debt in Developing Countries

Indermit Singh Gill,Brian Pinto
Public Debt in Developing Countries Book PDF

Author : Indermit Singh Gill,Brian Pinto
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 43 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Debts, Public
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Public Debt in Developing Countries by Indermit Singh Gill,Brian Pinto Pdf

"Over the past 25 years, significant levels of public debt and external finance are more likely to have enhanced macroeconomic vulnerability than economic growth in developing countries. This applies not just to countries with a history of high inflation and past default, but also to those in East Asia, with a long tradition of prudent macroeconomic policies and rapid growth. The authors examine why with the help of a conceptual framework drawn from the growth, capital flows, and crisis literature for developing countries with access to the international capital markets (market access countries or MACs). They find that, while the chances of another generalized debt crisis have receded since the turbulence of the late 1990s, sovereign debt is indeed constraining growth in MACs, especially those with debt sustainability problems ... " -- Cover verso.

Sustainability and Optimality of Public Debt

Michael Carlberg
Sustainability and Optimality of Public Debt Book PDF

Author : Michael Carlberg
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 220 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783642469657

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Sustainability and Optimality of Public Debt by Michael Carlberg Pdf

Public debt seems to be one of the great issues of the nineties. The United States have turned from the largest creditor of the world to the largest debtor, due to dramatic budget deficits. The European Union tries to build dams against the flood, see the treaty of Maastricht. And in Germany, public debt tends to explo de, doubling within a few years. The reason for this is the immense cost of Ger man unification. I had many helpful talks with my colleague Michael Schmid (now at Bam berg). In addition, Michael Brauninger and Philipp Lichtenauer carefully discus sed with me all parts of the manuscript. Last but not least, Doris Ehrich typed the manuscript as excellently as ever. I would like to thank all of them. Contents INTRODUCTION 3 5 BRIEF SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE PART I. CLOSED ECONOMY 9 CHAPTER I. SOLOW MODEL 11 1. Fixed Deficit Ratio 11 1. 1. Simple Model 11 1. 2. Short-Run Equilibrium 12 1. 3. Long-Run Equilibrium 14 1. 4. Optimal Deficit Ratio 18 1. 5. Optimal Saving Ratio 20 1. 6. Stability 21 1. 7. Shocks 23 1. 8. Budget Surplus 29 1. 9. Numerical Example 32 1. 10. Summary 37 2. Fixed Tax Rate 38 2. 1. Simple Model 38 2. 2. Short-Run Equilibrium 39 2. 3. Long-Run Equilibrium 40 2. 4. Stability 45 2. 5. Shocks 48 2. 6. Optimal Tax Rate 56 2. 7. Optimal Saving Ratio 57 2. 8. Numerical Example 58 2. 9.

Sustainability of Public Debt

Reinhard Neck,Jan-Egbert Sturm
Sustainability of Public Debt Book PDF

Author : Reinhard Neck,Jan-Egbert Sturm
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 281 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262140980

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Sustainability of Public Debt by Reinhard Neck,Jan-Egbert Sturm Pdf

Theoretical and empirical perspectives on how fiscal policies in Europe and the United States can avoid government bankruptcy.

Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty

Rossen Rozenov
Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Rossen Rozenov
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2017-03-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475586251

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Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty by Rossen Rozenov Pdf

The paper offers an approach to assessing the sustainability of public debt taking into account the effect of fiscal policy on output, as well as uncertainty in the model parameters and system dynamics. Uncertainty is specified in general terms, and the analysis is based on the notion of invariant sets. Examples are provided to illustrate how the method can be applied in practice.

Debt Sustainability, Public Investment, and Natural Resources in Developing Countries

Mr.Giovanni Melina,Ms.Susan S. Yang,Luis-Felipe Zanna
Debt Sustainability Public Investment and Natural Resources in Developing Countries Book PDF

Author : Mr.Giovanni Melina,Ms.Susan S. Yang,Luis-Felipe Zanna
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 77 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2014-04-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475521078

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Debt Sustainability, Public Investment, and Natural Resources in Developing Countries by Mr.Giovanni Melina,Ms.Susan S. Yang,Luis-Felipe Zanna Pdf

This paper presents the DIGNAR (Debt, Investment, Growth, and Natural Resources) model, which can be used to analyze the debt sustainability and macroeconomic effects of public investment plans in resource-abundant developing countries. DIGNAR is a dynamic, stochastic model of a small open economy. It has two types of households, including poor households with no access to financial markets, and features traded and nontraded sectors as well as a natural resource sector. Public capital enters production technologies, while public investment is subject to inefficiencies and absorptive capacity constraints. The government has access to different types of debt (concessional, domestic and external commercial) and a resource fund, which can be used to finance public investment plans. The resource fund can also serve as a buffer to absorb fiscal balances for given projections of resource revenues and public investment plans. When the fund is drawn down to its minimal value, a combination of external and domestic borrowing can be used to cover the fiscal gap in the short to medium run. Fiscal adjustments through tax rates and government non-capital expenditures—which may be constrained by ceilings and floors, respectively—are then triggered to maintain debt sustainability. The paper illustrates how the model can be particularly useful to assess debt sustainability in countries that borrow against future resource revenues to scale up public investment.

Debt Sustainability

Ludger Schuknecht
Debt Sustainability Book PDF

Author : Ludger Schuknecht
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 176 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2022-09-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781009218498

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Debt Sustainability by Ludger Schuknecht Pdf

This study presents the facts, arguments and scenarios around public debt from a global perspective. Especially the largest economies feature record debt and fiscal risks, including from population ageing and financial imbalances. Given low interest rates, there is no imminent problem. But at some point, debt will have to come down. There are four possible scenarios how debt could come down. First, governments could economise and reform. Second, governments could default. Third, governments could erode the real value of debt via inflation and negative real interest rates. However, this scenario cannot continue forever. Policy errors can prompt a loss of confidence, destabilisation and crisis. This fourth scenario last included the largest economies in the 1970s. It would become a major global challenge if it were to happen again in today's interconnected world.

Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market-Access Countries

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market Access Countries Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 55 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2013-05-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498341844

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Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market-Access Countries by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf

The framework for fiscal policy and public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) in market-access countries (MACs) was reviewed by the Executive Board in August 2011.1 The review responded to shortcomings in identifying fiscal vulnerabilities and assessing risks to debt sustainability against the backdrop of increased concerns over fiscal policy and public debt sustainability in many advanced economies.

Public Debt and Growth

Jaejoon Woo,Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar
Public Debt and Growth Book PDF

Author : Jaejoon Woo,Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2010-07-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455201853

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Public Debt and Growth by Jaejoon Woo,Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar Pdf

This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.

Modernizing the Framework for Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

International Monetary Fund
Modernizing the Framework for Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 59 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2011-05-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498338639

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Modernizing the Framework for Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis by International Monetary Fund Pdf

Modernizing the framework for fiscal policy and public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) has become necessary, particularly in light of the recent crisis and rising sustainability concerns in some advanced economies. While recognizing the inherently challenging nature of such analysis, this paper highlights areas where improvements are needed and makes both general and specific proposals on how this could be achieved. It also proposes to move to a risk-based approach to DSAs for all market-access countries, where the depth and extent of analysis would be commensurate with concerns regarding sustainability, while a reasonable level of standardization would be maintained.

Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability

Mr.Andrew Berg,Rafael Portillo,Mr.Edward F. Buffie,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Luis-Felipe Zanna
Public Investment Growth and Debt Sustainability Book PDF

Author : Mr.Andrew Berg,Rafael Portillo,Mr.Edward F. Buffie,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Luis-Felipe Zanna
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 114 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2012-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475577259

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Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability by Mr.Andrew Berg,Rafael Portillo,Mr.Edward F. Buffie,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Luis-Felipe Zanna Pdf

We develop a model to study the macroeconomic effects of public investment surges in low-income countries, making explicit: (i) the investment-growth linkages; (ii) public external and domestic debt accumulation; (iii) the fiscal policy reactions necessary to ensure debt-sustainability; and (iv) the macroeconomic adjustment required to ensure internal and external balance. Well-executed high-yielding public investment programs can substantially raise output and consumption and be self-financing in the long run. However, even if the long run looks good, transition problems can be formidable when concessional financing does not cover the full cost of the investment program. Covering the resulting gap with tax increases or spending cuts requires sharp macroeconomic adjustments, crowding out private investment and consumption and delaying the growth benefits of public investment. Covering the gap with domestic borrowing market is not helpful either: higher domestic rates increase the financing challenge and private investment and consumption are still crowded out. Supplementing with external commercial borrowing, on the other hand, can smooth these difficult adjustments, reconciling the scaling up with feasibility constraints on increases in tax rates. But the strategy may be also risky. With poor execution, sluggish fiscal policy reactions, or persistent negative exogenous shocks, this strategy can easily lead to unsustainable public debt dynamics. Front-loaded investment programs and weak structural conditions (such as low returns to public capital and poor execution of investments) make the fiscal adjustment more challenging and the risks greater.