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Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards by Jonathan Rougier,Lisa J. Hill,Robert Stephen John Sparks Pdf
A state-of-the-art overview of natural hazard risk assessment, for researchers and professionals in natural-hazard science, risk management and environmental science.
Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards by Jonathan Rougier,Steve Sparks,Lisa J. Hill Pdf
A state-of-the-art overview of natural hazard risk assessment, for researchers and professionals in natural-hazard science, risk management and environmental science.
Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment by Karin Riley,Peter Webley,Matthew Thompson Pdf
Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction
Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment by Anonim Pdf
Natural disasters cause suffering through the harm of people and infrastructure along with huge economic destruction. Risks from natural hazards are part of everyday life, whether it is from floods, storms, tsunami, landslides, severe weather or earthquakes. Awareness and understanding of risk and effective risk management is therefore necessary to reduce the vulnerability of our communities. Assessments of natural hazards form the basis for all management tasks and are therefore a crucial component of hazard management. This fact has become apparent during the last years and consequently funds for the advancement of hazard assessments as well as the enhancement of management strategies have been allocated. Natural hazard assessments are always subject to uncertainties due to missing knowledge about the complexity of hazardous processes as well as their natural variability. Decision-makers in the field of natural hazard management need to understand the concept, components, sources, and implications of existing uncertainties in order to reach informed and transparent decisions.This timely edited volume explores the current state-of-the-art research in risk assessment and uncertainty for the major natural hazards. It covers work currently occurring in uncertainty quantification of volcanic, earthquake, and landslide processes. The book focuses on advancements in uncertainty and risk assessment for natural hazards driven by biological, physical, and climatic factors contributed by scientists and researchers the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. It illustrates how natural hazard sciences and modeling efforts vary across multiple dimensions in terms of data availability, sufficiency, and spatiotemporal scale, the relative amount and cumulative expertise of scientists working in each field, and the state of the science in quantitative uncertainty assessment. The book introduces a framework for identifying and classifying uncertainty, presents insights on communicating uncertainty across arenas.
Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards by Jonathan Rougier,Robert Stephen John Sparks,Lisa J. Hill Pdf
"Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy"--Publisher description.
Risk Analysis of Natural Hazards by Paolo Gardoni,Colleen Murphy,Arden Rowell Pdf
This volume investigates the interdisciplinary and cross-cutting challenges in the risk analysis of natural hazards. It brings together leading minds in engineering, science, philosophy, law, and the social sciences. Parts I and II of this volume explore risk assessment, first by providing an overview of the interdisciplinary interactions involved in the assessment of natural hazards, and then by exploring the particular impacts of climate change on natural hazard assessment. Part III discusses the theoretical frameworks for the evaluation of natural hazards. Finally, Parts IV and V address the risk management of natural hazards, providing first an overview of the interdisciplinary interactions underlying natural hazard management, and then exploring decision frameworks that can help decision makers integrate and respond to the complex relationships among natural events, the built environment, and human behavior.
Author : Ann Bostrom,Steven P. French,Sara J. Gottlieb Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media Page : 334 pages File Size : 55,6 Mb Release : 2008-02-10 Category : Science ISBN : 9783540711582
Risk Assessment, Modeling and Decision Support by Ann Bostrom,Steven P. French,Sara J. Gottlieb Pdf
The papers in this volume integrate results from current research efforts in earthquake engineering with research from the larger risk assessment community. The authors include risk and hazard researchers from the major U.S. hazard and earthquake centers. The volume lays out a road map for future developments in risk modeling and decision support, and positions earthquake engineering research within the family of risk analysis tools and techniques.
Uncertainty in Risk Assessment by Terje Aven,Piero Baraldi,Roger Flage,Enrico Zio Pdf
Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems by Shreeda Maskey Pdf
Like all natural hazards, flooding is a complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon. Despite advances in developing flood forecasting models and techniques, the uncertainty in forecasts remains unavoidable. This uncertainty needs to be acknowledged, and uncertainty estimation in flood forecasting provides a rational basis for risk-based criteria. This book presents the development and applications of various methods based on probablity and fuzzy set theories for modelling uncertainty in flood forecasting systems. In particular, it presents a methodology for uncertainty assessment using disaggregation of time series inputs in the framework of both the Monte Carlo method and the Fuzzy Extention Principle. It reports an improvement in the First Order Second Moment method, using second degree reconstruction, and derives qualitative scales for the interpretation of qualitative uncertainty. Application is to flood forecasting models for the Klodzko catchment in POland and the Loire River in France. Prospects for the hybrid techniques of uncertainty modelling and probability-possibility transformations are also explored and reported.
An Assessment of Natural Hazards and Disasters in Canada by David Etkin,C.E. Haque,Gregory R. Brooks Pdf
The problems and issues of natural hazards and disasters, both globally and in Canada, are becoming increasingly important since the costs of extreme natural events have been escalating, and significant vulnerabilities exist in Canadian society. Without thoughtful and effective mitigation, these costs and human suffering are likely to continue to increase. An assessment of knowledge, research, and practice in risk, hazards and disasters fields is a fundamental step towards the goal of prevention and mitigation. This book on natural hazards and disasters in Canada is the first comprehensive interdisciplinary publication on this subject, and is the result of a national assessment on this topic. A variety of papers from the physical and social sciences explores both the risks associated with these hazards, and adaptive strategies that can be used to reduce those risks. Audience: This excellent collection of papers is intended for academics, professionals and practitioners involved in hazard reduction activities who wish to obtain a better understanding of Canadian natural hazards.
National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Commission on Life Sciences,Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants
Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Commission on Life Sciences,Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 668 pages File Size : 55,6 Mb Release : 1994-01-01 Category : Science ISBN : 9780309048941
Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Commission on Life Sciences,Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants Pdf
The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
Natural Hazard Risk Assessment and Public Policy by William Petak,A.A. Atkisson Pdf
This series is dedicated to serving the growing community of scholars and practitioners concerned with the principles and applications of environmental management. Each volume is a thorough treatment of a specific topic of importance for proper management practices. A fundamental objective of these books is to help the reader discern and implement man's stewardship of our environment and the world's renewable resources. For we must strive to understand the relationship between man and nature, act to bring harmony to it, and nurture an environment that is both stable and productive. These objectives have often eluded us because the pursuit of other individual and societal goals has diverted us from a course of living in balance with the environment. At times, therefore, the environmental manager may have to exert restrictive control, which is usually best applied to man, not nature. Attempts to alter or harness nature have often failed or backfired, as exemplified by the results of imprudent use of herbicides, fertilizers, water, and other agents. Each book in this series will shed light on the fundamental and applied aspects of environmental management. It is hoped that each will help solve a practical and serious environmental problem.
Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management by Jim W. Hall,Michael Beer,Siu-Kui Au Pdf
Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis (ISUMA), held in Liverpool, UK, July 13-16, 2014. Sponsored by the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty and the Virtual Engineering Centre of the University of Liverpool, the Environmental Change Institute of the University of Oxford, and the Council on Disaster Risk Management of ASCE. Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management, CDRM 9, contains 290 peer-reviewed papers that build upon recent significant advances in the quantification, mitigation, and management of risk and uncertainty. These papers focus on decision making and multi-disciplinary developments to address the demands and challenges evolving from the rapidly growing complexity of real-world problems. Topics include: risk assessment and management of critical infrastructure projects; performance-based and reliability-based structural optimization under uncertainty; verified and stochastic approaches to modeling and simulation under uncertainty; risk management for floods, tsunamis, earthquakes, and other natural hazards; risk and uncertainty modeling in transportation and logistics; and geotechnical risk, uncertainty, and decision making. These papers will be valuable to experts, decision-makers, and others involved in assessing, planning responses to, and managing vulnerability and risk.
Natural Hazards by Burrell E. Montz,Graham A. Tobin,Ronald R. Hagelman Pdf
What can we learn from the spatial patterns of disasters? What human and structural factors need to be addressed to explain hazard vulnerability? As populations grow and the climate warms, how can natural hazards be mitigated? Thoroughly revised and updated, and now with a more global perspective, the second edition of this accessible text provides an integrated framework for understanding and managing natural hazards. Numerous case studies from around the world illustrate the complexities of extreme geophysical events and highlight their physical, social, political, and economic dimensions. The text identifies essential principles for tackling the fundamental causes of differential vulnerabilities that perpetuate human distress, and for promoting recovery and resilience. New to This Edition *New frameworks for understanding human resilience and adaptive capacity in recovery, dynamics of risk and uncertainty, and more. *Chapter on spatial and temporal aspects of hazards. *Discussions of cutting-edge topics, such as chronic disasters, controversies in international aid, and how hazards affect regions differentially. *Many new case studies, including Hurricanes Katrina and Charley, Superstorm Sandy, the 2011 Japan tsunami, Ecuador's chronic volcanic hazard, and others. *Reflects 20 years of research advances across the physical and social sciences, development trends, new technologies, and ongoing global climate change.
Evaluation of Uncertainties and Risks in Geology by György Bardossy,János Fodor Pdf
High levels of uncertainty are a trademark of geological investigations, such as the search for oil, diamonds, and uranium. So business ventures related to geology, such as mineral exploration and mining, are naturally associated with higher risks than more traditional entrepreneurial ventures in industry and economy. There are also a number of dangerous natural hazards, e.g. earthquakes, volcanic activities, and inundations, that are the direct result of geological processes. It is of paramount interest to study them all, to describe them, to understand their origin and - if possible - to predict them. While uncertainties, geological risks and natural hazards are often mentioned in geological textbooks, conferences papers, and articles, no comprehensive and systematic evaluation has so far been attempted. This book, written at an appropriately sophisticated level to deal with complexity of these problems, presents a detailed evaluation of the entire problem, discussing it from both, the geological and the mathematical aspects.
