Uncertainty In Risk Assessment

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Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making

V.T. Covello,Lester B. Lave,Alan Moghissi,V.R.R. Uppuluri
Uncertainty in Risk Assessment Risk Management and Decision Making Book PDF

Author : V.T. Covello,Lester B. Lave,Alan Moghissi,V.R.R. Uppuluri
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 523 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2013-03-08
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781468453171

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Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making by V.T. Covello,Lester B. Lave,Alan Moghissi,V.R.R. Uppuluri Pdf

The subject of this volume--uncertainties in risk assessment and management--reflects an important theme in health, safety, and environ mental decision making. MOst technological hazards are characterized by substantial uncertainty. Recent examples include nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, asbestos in schools, carcinogens in food, and hazardous waste. realing with such uncertainty is arguably the most difficult and challeng ing task facing risk assessors and managers today. Four primary sources of uncertainty in risk assessment and management can be identified: (1) uncertainties about definitions; (2) uncertainties about scientific facts; (3) uncertainties about risk perceptions and atti tudes; and (4) uncertainties about values. Uncertainties about definitions derive primarily from disagreements about the meaning and interpretation of key concepts, such as probability. Uncertainties about scientific facts derive primarily from disagreements about failure modes, the probability and magnitude of adverse health or environmental consequences, cause and effect relationships, dose-response relationships, and exposure patterns. Uncertainties about risk perceptions and attitudes derive primarily from disagreements about what constitutes a significant or acceptable level of risk. Uncertainties about values derive primarily from disagreements about the desirability or worth of alternative risk management actions or conse quences. The papers in this volume address each of these sources of uncertainty from a variety of perspectives. Reflecting the broad scope of risk assess ment and risk management research, the papers include contributions from safety engineers, epidemiologists, toxicologists, chemists, biostatisticians, biologists, decision analysts, economists, psychologists, political scien tists, sociologists, ethicists, and lawyers.

Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment

National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Commission on Life Sciences,Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants
Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment Book PDF

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Commission on Life Sciences,Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 668 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 1994-01-01
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309048941

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Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Commission on Life Sciences,Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants Pdf

The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment

Terje Aven,Piero Baraldi,Roger Flage,Enrico Zio
Uncertainty in Risk Assessment Book PDF

Author : Terje Aven,Piero Baraldi,Roger Flage,Enrico Zio
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2013-12-17
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781118763063

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Uncertainty in Risk Assessment by Terje Aven,Piero Baraldi,Roger Flage,Enrico Zio Pdf

Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.

Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards

Jonathan Rougier,Steve Sparks,Lisa J. Hill
Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards Book PDF

Author : Jonathan Rougier,Steve Sparks,Lisa J. Hill
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2013-02-21
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781107310766

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Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards by Jonathan Rougier,Steve Sparks,Lisa J. Hill Pdf

Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.

Science and Decisions

National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Committee on Improving Risk Analysis Approaches Used by the U.S. EPA
Science and Decisions Book PDF

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Committee on Improving Risk Analysis Approaches Used by the U.S. EPA
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 422 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2009-03-24
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780309120463

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Science and Decisions by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Committee on Improving Risk Analysis Approaches Used by the U.S. EPA Pdf

Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. However, risk assessment is at a crossroads. Despite advances in the field, risk assessment faces a number of significant challenges including lengthy delays in making complex decisions; lack of data leading to significant uncertainty in risk assessments; and many chemicals in the marketplace that have not been evaluated and emerging agents requiring assessment. Science and Decisions makes practical scientific and technical recommendations to address these challenges. This book is a complement to the widely used 1983 National Academies book, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government (also known as the Red Book). The earlier book established a framework for the concepts and conduct of risk assessment that has been adopted by numerous expert committees, regulatory agencies, and public health institutions. The new book embeds these concepts within a broader framework for risk-based decision-making. Together, these are essential references for those working in the regulatory and public health fields.

Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management

Terje Aven,Enrico Zio
Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management Book PDF

Author : Terje Aven,Enrico Zio
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 359 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2018-02-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781119317890

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Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management by Terje Aven,Enrico Zio Pdf

Exciting new developments in risk assessment and management Risk assessment and management is fundamentally founded on the knowledge available on the system or process under consideration. While this may be self-evident to the laymen, thought leaders within the risk community have come to recognize and emphasize the need to explicitly incorporate knowledge (K) in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent framework for describing and modeling risk. Featuring contributions by an international team of researchers and respected practitioners in the field, this book explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. By offering a fresh perspective on risk assessment and management, the book represents a significant contribution to the development of a sturdier foundation for the practice of risk assessment and for risk-informed decision making. How should K be described and evaluated in risk assessment? How can it be reflected and taken into account in formulating risk management strategies? With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this book answers these and other critical questions at the heart of modern risk assessment, while identifying many practical challenges associated with this explicit framework. This book, written by international scholars and leaders in the field, and edited to make coverage both conceptually advanced and highly accessible: Offers a systematic, rigorous and transparent perspective and framework on risk assessment and management, explicitly strengthening the links between knowledge and risk Clearly and concisely introduces the key risk concepts at the foundation of risk assessment and management Features numerous cases and real-world examples, many of which focused on various engineering applications across an array of industries Knowledge of Risk Assessment and Management is a must-read for risk assessment and management professionals, as well as graduate students, researchers and educators in the field. It is also of interest to policy makers and business people who are eager to gain a better understanding of the foundations and boundaries of risk assessment, and how its outcomes should be used for decision-making.

Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment

Karin Riley,Peter Webley,Matthew Thompson
Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment Book PDF

Author : Karin Riley,Peter Webley,Matthew Thompson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 356 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2016-12-12
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781119027867

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Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment by Karin Riley,Peter Webley,Matthew Thompson Pdf

Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction

Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

Institute of Medicine,Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice,Committee on Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Institute of Medicine,Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice,Committee on Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 280 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2013-05-20
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780309290234

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Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty by Institute of Medicine,Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice,Committee on Decision Making Under Uncertainty Pdf

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.

Waste Incineration and Public Health

National Research Council,Commission on Life Sciences,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Committee on Health Effects of Waste Incineration
Waste Incineration and Public Health Book PDF

Author : National Research Council,Commission on Life Sciences,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Committee on Health Effects of Waste Incineration
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 336 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2000-10-21
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309063715

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Waste Incineration and Public Health by National Research Council,Commission on Life Sciences,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Committee on Health Effects of Waste Incineration Pdf

Incineration has been used widely for waste disposal, including household, hazardous, and medical wasteâ€"but there is increasing public concern over the benefits of combusting the waste versus the health risk from pollutants emitted during combustion. Waste Incineration and Public Health informs the emerging debate with the most up-to-date information available on incineration, pollution, and human healthâ€"along with expert conclusions and recommendations for further research and improvement of such areas as risk communication. The committee provides details on: Processes involved in incineration and how contaminants are released. Environmental dynamics of contaminants and routes of human exposure. Tools and approaches for assessing possible human health effects. Scientific concerns pertinent to future regulatory actions. The book also examines some of the social, psychological, and economic factors that affect the communities where incineration takes place and addresses the problem of uncertainty and variation in predicting the health effects of incineration processes.

Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk

Marjolein B.A. van Asselt
Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk Book PDF

Author : Marjolein B.A. van Asselt
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 444 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2013-03-09
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9789401725835

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Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk by Marjolein B.A. van Asselt Pdf

This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.

Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks

Igor Linkov,José Palma-Oliveira
Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks Book PDF

Author : Igor Linkov,José Palma-Oliveira
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 440 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9789401009874

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Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks by Igor Linkov,José Palma-Oliveira Pdf

Managing environmental contamination requires decision makers to weigh eXlstmg risks against the potential effects of implementing environmental policies - considering both the benefits and disruptions that may result from different actions. The NATO Advanced Research Workshop in Lisbon was an important step in the development and application of cost efficient methods of risk assessment especiaIly within the constraints of a budget. The goal of the workshop was to evaluate the potential for risk assessment to serve as a unified and unifying technique in addressing a wide range of environmental problems. Papers presented in this book discuss issues ranging from specific and local studies (specific site, ecosystem, pollutant) to global decision and management frameworks (watersheds, regions, integration of multiple poIlutants and stressors); they develop a range of approaches starting from specific methods to widely applied public policies (Figure 1). The papers show that the use of risk assessment can provide the scientific basis for environmentaIly sound and cost-efficient policies, strategies, and solutions to our environmental chaIlenges. The organization of the Proceedings reflects sessions and discussions during the workshop. The papers in the introductory Chapter summarize the positions of Drs. Glenn Suter (EPA) and Jim Wilson (Resources for the Future) regarding whether the use of often-expensive risk assessments in developing countries can be justified, given evolving regulatory institutions and limited resources.

Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management

Jim W. Hall,Michael Beer,Siu-Kui Au
Vulnerability Uncertainty and Risk Quantification Mitigation and Management Book PDF

Author : Jim W. Hall,Michael Beer,Siu-Kui Au
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2024-05-21
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 0784413606

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Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management by Jim W. Hall,Michael Beer,Siu-Kui Au Pdf

Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis (ISUMA), held in Liverpool, UK, July 13-16, 2014. Sponsored by the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty and the Virtual Engineering Centre of the University of Liverpool, the Environmental Change Institute of the University of Oxford, and the Council on Disaster Risk Management of ASCE. Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management, CDRM 9, contains 290 peer-reviewed papers that build upon recent significant advances in the quantification, mitigation, and management of risk and uncertainty. These papers focus on decision making and multi-disciplinary developments to address the demands and challenges evolving from the rapidly growing complexity of real-world problems. Topics include: risk assessment and management of critical infrastructure projects; performance-based and reliability-based structural optimization under uncertainty; verified and stochastic approaches to modeling and simulation under uncertainty; risk management for floods, tsunamis, earthquakes, and other natural hazards; risk and uncertainty modeling in transportation and logistics; and geotechnical risk, uncertainty, and decision making. These papers will be valuable to experts, decision-makers, and others involved in assessing, planning responses to, and managing vulnerability and risk.

Uncertainty

Millett Granger Morgan,Max Henrion,Mitchell Small
Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Millett Granger Morgan,Max Henrion,Mitchell Small
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 354 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 1990
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0521427444

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Uncertainty by Millett Granger Morgan,Max Henrion,Mitchell Small Pdf

A risk analysis textbook which is intended as a basic text for students as well as a reference for practitioners and researchers. It provides a basis for policy analysis and draws upon a variety of case studies.

Principles of Risk Analysis

Charles Yoe
Principles of Risk Analysis Book PDF

Author : Charles Yoe
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 576 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2016-04-19
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781439857502

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Principles of Risk Analysis by Charles Yoe Pdf

In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis i

Guidelines for Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis

CCPS (Center for Chemical Process Safety)
Guidelines for Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis Book PDF

Author : CCPS (Center for Chemical Process Safety)
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 784 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2010-08-27
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780470935415

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Guidelines for Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis by CCPS (Center for Chemical Process Safety) Pdf

Chemical process quantitative risk analysis (CPQRA) as applied to the CPI was first fully described in the first edition of this CCPS Guidelines book. This second edition is packed with information reflecting advances in this evolving methodology, and includes worked examples on a CD-ROM. CPQRA is used to identify incident scenarios and evaluate their risk by defining the probability of failure, the various consequences and the potential impact of those consequences. It is an invaluable methodology to evaluate these when qualitative analysis cannot provide adequate understanding and when more information is needed for risk management. This technique provides a means to evaluate acute hazards and alternative risk reduction strategies, and identify areas for cost-effective risk reduction. There are no simple answers when complex issues are concerned, but CPQRA2 offers a cogent, well-illustrated guide to applying these risk-analysis techniques, particularly to risk control studies. Special Details: Includes CD-ROM with example problems worked using Excel and Quattro Pro. For use with Windows 95, 98, and NT.