Negative Multiplicity Forecasting The Future Impact Of Emerging Technologies On International Stability And Human Security

Author : Artur Gruszczak,Sebastian Kaempf
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 617 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2023-09-19
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781000930948

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Routledge Handbook of the Future of Warfare by Artur Gruszczak,Sebastian Kaempf Pdf

This handbook provides a comprehensive, problem-driven and dynamic overview of the future of warfare. The volatilities and uncertainties of the global security environment raise timely and important questions about the future of humanity’s oldest occupation: war. This volume addresses these questions through a collection of cutting-edge contributions by leading scholars in the field. Its overall focus is prognostic rather than futuristic, highlighting discernible trends, key developments and themes without downplaying the lessons from the past. By making the past meet the present in order to envision the future, the handbook offers a diversified outlook on the future of warfare, which will be indispensable for researchers, students and military practitioners alike. The volume is divided into six thematic sections. Section I draws out general trends in the phenomenon of war and sketches the most significant developments, from the past to the present and into the future. Section II looks at the areas and domains which actively shape the future of warfare. Section III engages with the main theories and conceptions of warfare, capturing those attributes of contemporary conflicts which will most likely persist and determine the dynamics and directions of their transformations. The fourth section addresses differentiation and complexity in the domain of warfare, pointing to those factors which will exert a strong impact on the structure and properties of that domain. Section V focuses on technology as the principal trigger of changes and alterations in the essence of warfare. The final section draws on the general trends identified in Section I and sheds light on how those trends have manifested in specific local contexts. This section zooms in on particular geographies which are seen and anticipated as hotbeds where future warfare will most likely assume its shape and reveal its true colours. This book will be of great interest to students of strategic studies, defence studies, war and technology, and International Relations.

Author : Reuben Steff,Joe Burton,Simona R. Soare
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 296 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2020-11-25
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781000284539

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Emerging Technologies and International Security by Reuben Steff,Joe Burton,Simona R. Soare Pdf

This book offers a multidisciplinary analysis of emerging technologies and their impact on the new international security environment across three levels of analysis. While recent technological developments, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotics and automation, have the potential to transform international relations in positive ways, they also pose challenges to peace and security and raise new ethical, legal and political questions about the use of power and the role of humans in war and conflict. This book makes a contribution to these debates by considering emerging technologies across three levels of analysis: (1) the international system (systemic level) including the balance of power; (2) the state and its role in international affairs and how these technologies are redefining and challenging the state’s traditional roles; and (3) the relationship between the state and society, including how these technologies affect individuals and non-state actors. This provides specific insights at each of these levels and generates a better understanding of the connections between the international and the local when it comes to technological advance across time and space The chapters examine the implications of these technologies for the balance of power, examining the strategies of the US, Russia, and China to harness AI, robotics and automation (and how their militaries and private corporations are responding); how smaller and less powerful states and non-state actors are adjusting; the political, ethical and legal implications of AI and automation; what these technologies mean for how war and power is understood and utilized in the 21st century; and how these technologies diffuse power away from the state to society, individuals and non-state actors. This volume will be of much interest to students of international security, science and technology studies, law, philosophy, and international relations.

Author : Todd S. Sechser,Neil Narang,Caitlin Talmadge
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 254 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2021-11-28
Category : History
ISBN : 9781000485561

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Emerging Technologies and International Stability by Todd S. Sechser,Neil Narang,Caitlin Talmadge Pdf

Technology has always played a central role in international politics; it shapes the ways states fight during wartime and compete during peacetime. Today, rapid advancements have contributed to a widespread sense that the world is again on the precipice of a new technological era. Emerging technologies have inspired much speculative commentary, but academic scholarship can improve the discussion with disciplined theory-building and rigorous empirics. This book aims to contribute to the debate by exploring the role of technology – both military and non-military – in shaping international security. Specifically, the contributors to this edited volume aim to generate new theoretical insights into the relationship between technology and strategic stability, test them with sound empirical methods, and derive their implications for the coming technological age. This book is very novel in its approach. It covers a wide range of technologies, both old and new, rather than emphasizing a single technology. Furthermore, this volume looks at how new technologies might affect the broader dynamics of the international system rather than limiting the focus to a stability. The contributions to this volume walk readers through the likely effects of emerging technologies at each phase of the conflict process. The chapters begin with competition in peacetime, move to deterrence and coercion, and then explore the dynamics of crises, the outbreak of conflict, and war escalation in an environment of emerging technologies. The chapters in this book, except for the Introduction and the Conclusion, were originally published in the Journal of Strategic Studies.

Author : Adérito Vicente,Polina Sinovets,Julien Theron
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 261 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2023-10-03
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9783031322211

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Russia’s War on Ukraine by Adérito Vicente,Polina Sinovets,Julien Theron Pdf

This book explores how Russia’s War on Ukraine has changed the global nuclear order. The Russian aggression against Ukraine questioned the values of the liberal regimes and systems upon which the global nuclear order is built. At the heart of this nuclear order lies the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which remains until today the cornerstone of the global nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation regime. In this context, the book examines new challenges and threats to the global nuclear order. It discusses the deterioration of nuclear norms, as well as the increasing number of the states further challenging the NPT regime by attempts to develop nuclear weapons. The book further sheds light on a growing number of states trying to resolve their territorial claims using the nuclear coercion and the umbrella function of their nuclear arsenals. The authors present the loopholes in the existing arms control system and the arms trade, which became obvious in the course of the war, and analyze the further split between the supporters of the NPT and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). Srutinizing the deepening polarization of the supporters and the opponents of nuclear weapons, the book includes a new debate about the competing narratives on nuclear deterrence and disarmament. Finally, the volume discusses the development and the increase of new missiles and disruptive technologies such as hypersonic missiles, drones, and artificial intelligence. This book will appeal to students and scholars of international relations and political science in general, and security studies, military and defense studies, peace and conflict studies, and foreign policy in particular, as well as policy-makers interested in a better understanding of nuclear deterrence, the global nuclear order, and the impact of Russia's war on Ukraine.

Author : Segaran P. Pillai,Stephen Allen Morse
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
Page : 119 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2024-03-20
Category : Science
ISBN : 9782832546604

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Insights In Biosafety & Biosecurity 2022/2023: Novel Developments, Current Challenges, and Future Perspectives by Segaran P. Pillai,Stephen Allen Morse Pdf

We are now entering the third decade of the 21st century, and, especially in the last years, the achievements made by scientists have been exceptional, leading to major advancements in the rapidly growing fields of bioengineering and biotechnology. This annual collection, which highlights article submissions from our Editorial Board members, looks to explore new insights, novel developments, current challenges, latest discoveries, recent advances, and future perspectives in the field of Biosafety & Biosecurity.

Author : Victor Gervais
Publisher : Trends Research & advisory
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2024-06-11
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789948846222

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Emerging technologies and the future of warfare by Victor Gervais Pdf

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
Page : 176 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 1998-09-25
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789264163539

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21st Century Technologies Promises and Perils of a Dynamic Future by OECD Pdf

This book reviews the extraordinary promise of technological advances over the next twenty years or so, and assesses some of the key issues -- economic, social, environmental, ethical -- that decision-makers in government, business and society will face in the decades ahead.

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2018-02-07
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1646797728

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Global Trends 2030 by National Intelligence Council Pdf

This important report, Global Trends 2030-Alternative Worlds, released in 2012 by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, describes megatrends and potential game changers for the next decades. Among the megatrends, it analyzes: - increased individual empowerment - the diffusion of power among states and the ascent of a networked multi-polar world - a world's population growing to 8.3 billion people, of which sixty percent will live in urbanized areas, and surging cross-border migration - expanding demand for food, water, and energy It furthermore describes potential game changers, including: - a global economy that could thrive or collapse - increased global insecurity due to regional instability in the Middle East and South Asia - new technologies that could solve the problems caused by the megatrends - the possibility, but by no means the certainty, that the U.S. with new partners will reinvent the international system Students of trends, forward-looking entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades will find this essential reading.

Author : Stephan Klingebiel
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 164 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2014
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1308874226

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New Interfaces Between Security and Development by Stephan Klingebiel Pdf

For some years the nexus of development and security has been a key conceptual and also political issue. The associated debates are wide-ranging, extending from the basic question of the relationship between development and security to the concrete interaction of military and civil actors in a given post-conflict situation. The edited volume seeks to contribute to this debate by considering various dimensions of the subject. The volume compromises contributions from the following authors: Jakkie Cilliers, Mark Duffield, Ann M. Fitz-Gerald, Stephan Klingebiel, Clive Robinson, Necla Tschirgi.

Author : International Commission on the Futures of Education
Publisher : UNESCO Publishing
Page : 185 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2021-11-06
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789231004780

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Reimagining our futures together by International Commission on the Futures of Education Pdf

The interwoven futures of humanity and our planet are under threat. Urgent action, taken together, is needed to change course and reimagine our futures.

Author : National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
Publisher : U.S. Government Printing Office
Page : 166 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2012
Category : Balance of power
ISBN : 0160915430

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Global Trends 2030 by National Intelligence Council (U.S.) Pdf

This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. As with the NIC's previous Global Trends reports, we do not seek to predict the future, which would be an impossible feat, but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications. In-depth research, detailed modeling and a variety of analytical tools drawn from public, private and academic sources were employed in the production of Global Trends 2030. NIC leadership engaged with experts in nearly 20 countries, from think tanks, banks, government offices and business groups, to solicit reviews of the report.

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
Page : 134 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2009-02-19
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789264059818

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Conflict and Fragility Preventing Violence, War and State Collapse The Future of Conflict Early Warning and Response by OECD Pdf

Based on literature review and inputs from surveyed agencies, this book assesses the value and role of early warning for the prevention of violent conflict and identifies the most effective systems.

Author : National Intelligence Council and Office
Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Page : 80 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2017-02-17
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1543054706

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Global Trends by National Intelligence Council and Office Pdf

This edition of Global Trends revolves around a core argument about how the changing nature of power is increasing stress both within countries and between countries, and bearing on vexing transnational issues. The main section lays out the key trends, explores their implications, and offers up three scenarios to help readers imagine how different choices and developments could play out in very different ways over the next several decades. Two annexes lay out more detail. The first lays out five-year forecasts for each region of the world. The second provides more context on the key global trends in train.

Author : Paul Scharre
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
Page : 384 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2018-04-24
Category : History
ISBN : 9780393608991

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Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War by Paul Scharre Pdf

"The book I had been waiting for. I can't recommend it highly enough." —Bill Gates The era of autonomous weapons has arrived. Today around the globe, at least thirty nations have weapons that can search for and destroy enemy targets all on their own. Paul Scharre, a leading expert in next-generation warfare, describes these and other high tech weapons systems—from Israel’s Harpy drone to the American submarine-hunting robot ship Sea Hunter—and examines the legal and ethical issues surrounding their use. “A smart primer to what’s to come in warfare” (Bruce Schneier), Army of None engages military history, global policy, and cutting-edge science to explore the implications of giving weapons the freedom to make life and death decisions. A former soldier himself, Scharre argues that we must embrace technology where it can make war more precise and humane, but when the choice is life or death, there is no replacement for the human heart.

Author : Richard L. Kugler
Publisher : Government Printing Office
Page : 664 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 1579060706

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Policy Analysis in National Security Affairs by Richard L. Kugler Pdf

This book addresses how to conduct policy analysis in the field of national security, including foreign policy and defense strategy. It is a philosophical and conceptual book for helphing people think deeply, clearly, and insightfully about complex policy issues. This books reflects the viewpoint that the best policies normally come from efforts to synthesize competing camps by drawing upon the best of each of them and by combining them to forge a sensible whole. While this book is written to be reader-friendly, it aspires to in-depth scholarship.