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This textbook provides a self-contained introduction to numerical methods in probability with a focus on applications to finance. Topics covered include the Monte Carlo simulation (including simulation of random variables, variance reduction, quasi-Monte Carlo simulation, and more recent developments such as the multilevel paradigm), stochastic optimization and approximation, discretization schemes of stochastic differential equations, as well as optimal quantization methods. The author further presents detailed applications to numerical aspects of pricing and hedging of financial derivatives, risk measures (such as value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk), implicitation of parameters, and calibration. Aimed at graduate students and advanced undergraduate students, this book contains useful examples and over 150 exercises, making it suitable for self-study.
Philosophical Theories of Probability by Donald Gillies Pdf
The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.
Author : Graham A. Jones Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media Page : 394 pages File Size : 55,7 Mb Release : 2006-03-30 Category : Education ISBN : 9780387245300
Exploring Probability in School by Graham A. Jones Pdf
Exploring Probability in School provides a new perspective into research on the teaching and learning of probability. It creates this perspective by recognizing and analysing the special challenges faced by teachers and learners in contemporary classrooms where probability has recently become a mainstream part of the curriculum from early childhood through high school. The authors of the book discuss the nature of probability, look at the meaning of probabilistic literacy, and examine student access to powerful ideas in probability during the elementary, middle, and high school years. Moreover, they assemble and analyse research-based pedagogical knowledge for teachers that can enhance the learning of probability throughout these school years. With the book’s rich application of probability research to classroom practice, it will not only be essential reading for researchers and graduate students involved in probability education; it will also capture the interest of educational policy makers, curriculum personnel, teacher educators, and teachers.
A Treatise on Probability by John Maynard Keynes Pdf
Originally published in 1921, this mathematical work represents a significant contribution to the logical probability of propositions. Keynes effectively dismantled the classical theory, launching the "logical-relationist" theory of probability.
Reflections on the Foundations of Probability and Statistics by Thomas Augustin,Fabio Gagliardi Cozman,Gregory Wheeler Pdf
This Festschrift celebrates Teddy Seidenfeld and his seminal contributions to philosophy, statistics, probability, game theory and related areas. The 13 contributions in this volume, written by leading researchers in these fields, are supplemented by an interview with Teddy Seidenfeld that offers an abbreviated intellectual autobiography, touching on topics of timeless interest concerning truth and uncertainty. Indeed, as the eminent philosopher Isaac Levi writes in this volume: "In a world dominated by Alternative Facts and Fake News, it is hard to believe that many of us have spent our life’s work, as has Teddy Seidenfeld, in discussing truth and uncertainty." The reader is invited to share this celebration of Teddy Seidenfeld’s work uncovering truths about uncertainty and the penetrating insights they offer to our common pursuit of truth in the face of uncertainty.
Philosophical Foundations of Probability Theory by Roy Weatherford Pdf
First published in 1982, Philosophical Foundations of Probability Theory starts with the uses we make of the concept in everyday life and then examines the rival theories that seek to account for these applications. It offers a critical exposition of the major philosophical theories of probability, with special attention given to the metaphysical and epistemological assumptions and implications of each. The Classical Theory suggests probability is simply the ratio of favorable cases to all equi-possible cases: it is this theory that is relied on by gamblers and by most non-specialists. The A Priori Theory, on the other hand, describes probability as a logical relation between statements based on evidence. The Relative Frequency theories locate it not in logic but among empirical rates of occurrence in the real world, while the Subjectivist Theory identifies probability with the degree of a person’s belief in a proposition. Each of these types of theory is examined in turn, and the treatment is unified by the use of running examples and parallel analyses of each theory. The final chapter includes a summary and the author’s conclusions. This book is an essential read for scholars and researchers of Philosophy.
The standard rules of probability can be interpreted as uniquely valid principles in logic. In this book, E. T. Jaynes dispels the imaginary distinction between 'probability theory' and 'statistical inference', leaving a logical unity and simplicity, which provides greater technical power and flexibility in applications. This book goes beyond the conventional mathematics of probability theory, viewing the subject in a wider context. New results are discussed, along with applications of probability theory to a wide variety of problems in physics, mathematics, economics, chemistry and biology. It contains many exercises and problems, and is suitable for use as a textbook on graduate level courses involving data analysis. The material is aimed at readers who are already familiar with applied mathematics at an advanced undergraduate level or higher. The book will be of interest to scientists working in any area where inference from incomplete information is necessary.
The term probability can be used in two main senses. In the frequency interpretation it is a limiting ratio in a sequence of repeatable events. In the Bayesian view, probability is a mental construct representing uncertainty. This 2002 book is about these two types of probability and investigates how, despite being adopted by scientists and statisticians in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, Bayesianism was discredited as a theory of scientific inference during the 1920s and 1930s. Through the examination of a dispute between two British scientists, the author argues that a choice between the two interpretations is not forced by pure logic or the mathematics of the situation, but depends on the experiences and aims of the individuals involved. The book should be of interest to students and scientists interested in statistics and probability theories and to general readers with an interest in the history, sociology and philosophy of science.
Computational Probability by Winfried K. Grassmann Pdf
Great advances have been made in recent years in the field of computational probability. In particular, the state of the art - as it relates to queuing systems, stochastic Petri-nets and systems dealing with reliability - has benefited significantly from these advances. The objective of this book is to make these topics accessible to researchers, graduate students, and practitioners. Great care was taken to make the exposition as clear as possible. Every line in the book has been evaluated, and changes have been made whenever it was felt that the initial exposition was not clear enough for the intended readership. The work of major research scholars in this field comprises the individual chapters of Computational Probability. The first chapter describes, in nonmathematical terms, the challenges in computational probability. Chapter 2 describes the methodologies available for obtaining the transition matrices for Markov chains, with particular emphasis on stochastic Petri-nets. Chapter 3 discusses how to find transient probabilities and transient rewards for these Markov chains. The next two chapters indicate how to find steady-state probabilities for Markov chains with a finite number of states. Both direct and iterative methods are described in Chapter 4. Details of these methods are given in Chapter 5. Chapters 6 and 7 deal with infinite-state Markov chains, which occur frequently in queueing, because there are times one does not want to set a bound for all queues. Chapter 8 deals with transforms, in particular Laplace transforms. The work of Ward Whitt and his collaborators, who have recently developed a number of numerical methods for Laplace transform inversions, is emphasized in this chapter. Finally, if one wants to optimize a system, one way to do the optimization is through Markov decision making, described in Chapter 9. Markov modeling has found applications in many areas, three of which are described in detail: Chapter 10 analyzes discrete-time queues, Chapter 11 describes networks of queues, and Chapter 12 deals with reliability theory.
Probability Concepts and Theory for Engineers by Harry Schwarzlander Pdf
A thorough introduction to the fundamentals of probability theory This book offers a detailed explanation of the basic models and mathematical principles used in applying probability theory to practical problems. It gives the reader a solid foundation for formulating and solving many kinds of probability problems for deriving additional results that may be needed in order to address more challenging questions, as well as for proceeding with the study of a wide variety of more advanced topics. Great care is devoted to a clear and detailed development of the ‘conceptual model' which serves as the bridge between any real-world situation and its analysis by means of the mathematics of probability. Throughout the book, this conceptual model is not lost sight of. Random variables in one and several dimensions are treated in detail, including singular random variables, transformations, characteristic functions, and sequences. Also included are special topics not covered in many probability texts, such as fuzziness, entropy, spherically symmetric random variables, and copulas. Some special features of the book are: a unique step-by-step presentation organized into 86 topical Sections, which are grouped into six Parts over 200 diagrams augment and illustrate the text, which help speed the reader's comprehension of the material short answer review questions following each Section, with an answer table provided, strengthen the reader's detailed grasp of the material contained in the Section problems associated with each Section provide practice in applying the principles discussed, and in some cases extend the scope of that material an online separate solutions manual is available for course tutors. The various features of this textbook make it possible for engineering students to become well versed in the ‘machinery' of probability theory. They also make the book a useful resource for self-study by practicing engineers and researchers who need a more thorough grasp of particular topics.
Comprehensive Reviews Parts V and VI: On Probability of God and Proof of Heaven by Arieh Ben-Naim Pdf
This book contains Comprehensive Reviews of two books: ?Probability of God? and ?Proof of Heaven?. The purpose of this series of books is to critically review some recent popular-science books, which in the author's view contain misleading information. It is also the purpose of the author to train the reader how to read critically popular-science books.
