Perception And Misperception In International Politics

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Perception and Misperception in International Politics

Robert Jervis
Perception and Misperception in International Politics Book PDF

Author : Robert Jervis
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 544 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2017-05-02
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781400885114

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Perception and Misperception in International Politics by Robert Jervis Pdf

Since its original publication in 1976, Perception and Misperception in International Politics has become a landmark book in its field, hailed by the New York Times as "the seminal statement of principles underlying political psychology." This new edition includes an extensive preface by the author reflecting on the book's lasting impact and legacy, particularly in the application of cognitive psychology to political decision making, and brings that analysis up to date by discussing the relevant psychological research over the past forty years. Jervis describes the process of perception (for example, how decision makers learn from history) and then explores common forms of misperception (such as overestimating one's influence). He then tests his ideas through a number of important events in international relations from nineteenth- and twentieth-century European history. Perception and Misperception in International Politics is essential for understanding international relations today.

How Statesmen Think

Robert Jervis
How Statesmen Think Book PDF

Author : Robert Jervis
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2017-02-28
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780691176444

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How Statesmen Think by Robert Jervis Pdf

Robert Jervis has been a pioneering leader in the study of the psychology of international politics for more than four decades. How Statesmen Think presents his most important ideas on the subject from across his career. This collection of revised and updated essays applies, elaborates, and modifies his pathbreaking work. The result is an indispensable book for students and scholars of international relations. How Statesmen Think demonstrates that expectations and political and psychological needs are the major drivers of perceptions in international politics, as well as in other arenas. Drawing on the increasing attention psychology is paying to emotions, the book discusses how emotional needs help structure beliefs. It also shows how decision-makers use multiple shortcuts to seek and process information when making foreign policy and national security judgments. For example, the desire to conserve cognitive resources can cause decision-makers to look at misleading indicators of military strength, and psychological pressures can lead them to run particularly high risks. The book also looks at how deterrent threats and counterpart promises often fail because they are misperceived. How Statesmen Think examines how these processes play out in many situations that arise in foreign and security policy, including the threat of inadvertent war, the development of domino beliefs, the formation and role of national identities, and conflicts between intelligence organizations and policymakers.

Risk-Taking in International Politics

Rose McDermott
Risk Taking in International Politics Book PDF

Author : Rose McDermott
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2001
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 0472087878

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Risk-Taking in International Politics by Rose McDermott Pdf

Discusses the way leaders deal with risk in making foreign policy decisions

Perception and Misperception in International Politics

Robert Jervis,Professor of Political Science Robert Jervis
Perception and Misperception in International Politics Book PDF

Author : Robert Jervis,Professor of Political Science Robert Jervis
Publisher : Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press
Page : 445 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 1976
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 0691100497

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Perception and Misperception in International Politics by Robert Jervis,Professor of Political Science Robert Jervis Pdf

Elucidates the psychological factors involved in foreign policymaking and international relations, maintaining that the perceptions of world decision makers diverge from reality in detectable patterns

System Effects

Robert Jervis
System Effects Book PDF

Author : Robert Jervis
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 328 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 1998-12-28
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781400822409

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System Effects by Robert Jervis Pdf

Based on more than three decades of observation, Robert Jervis concludes in this provocative book that the very foundations of many social science theories--especially those in political science--are faulty. Taking insights from complexity theory as his point of departure, the author observes that we live in a world where things are interconnected, where unintended consequences of our actions are unavoidable and unpredictable, and where the total effect of behavior is not equal to the sum of individual actions. Jervis draws on a wide range of human endeavors to illustrate the nature of these system effects. He shows how increasing airport security might actually cost lives, not save them, and how removing dead trees (ostensibly to give living trees more room) may damage the health of an entire forest. Similarly, he highlights the interconnectedness of the political world as he describes how the Cold War played out and as he narrates the series of events--with their unintended consequences--that escalated into World War I. The ramifications of developing a rigorous understanding of politics are immense, as Jervis demonstrates in his critique of current systemic theories of international politics--especially the influential work done by Kenneth Waltz. Jervis goes on to examine various types of negative and positive feedback, bargaining in different types of relationships, and the polarizing effects of alignments to begin building a foundation for a more realistic, more nuanced, theory of international politics. System Effects concludes by examining what it means to act in a system. It shows how political actors might modify their behavior in anticipation of system effects, and it explores how systemic theories of political behavior might account for the role of anticipation and strategy in political action. This work introduces powerful new concepts that will reward not only international relations theorists, but also all social scientists with interests in comparative politics and political theory.

Perception and Misperception in International Politics

Anonim
Perception and Misperception in International Politics Book PDF

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 1976
Category : International relations
ISBN : OCLC:464082098

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Perception and Misperception in International Politics by Anonim Pdf

This study of perception and misperception in foreign policy was a landmark in the application of cognitive psychology to political decision making. The New York Times called it, in an article published nearly ten years after the book's appearance, the seminal statement of principles underlying political psychology. The perspective established by Jervis remains an important counterpoint to structural explanations of international politics, and from it has developed a large literature on the psychology of leaders and the problems of decision making under conditions of incomplete information, stress, and cognitive bias. Jervis begins by describing the process of perception (for example, how decision makers learn from history) and then explores common forms of misperception (such as overestimating one's influence). Finally, he tests his ideas through a number of important events in international relations from nineteenth- and twentieth-century European history

Resolve in International Politics

Joshua D. Kertzer
Resolve in International Politics Book PDF

Author : Joshua D. Kertzer
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 258 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2018-12-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780691181080

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Resolve in International Politics by Joshua D. Kertzer Pdf

Why do some leaders and segments of the public display remarkable persistence in confrontations in international politics, while others cut and run? The answer given by policymakers, pundits, and political scientists usually relates to issues of resolve. Yet, though we rely on resolve to explain almost every phenomenon in international politics—from prevailing at the bargaining table to winning on the battlefield—we don't understand what it is, how it works, or where it comes from. Resolve in International Politics draws on a growing body of research in psychology and behavioral economics to explore the foundations of this important idea. Joshua Kertzer argues that political will is more than just a metaphor or figure of speech: the same traits social scientists and decision-making scholars use to comprehend willpower in our daily lives also shape how we respond to the costs of war and conflict. Combining laboratory and survey experiments with studies of great power military interventions in the postwar era from 1946 to 2003, Kertzer shows how time and risk preferences, honor orientation, and self-control help explain the ways leaders and members of the public define the situations they face and weigh the trade-offs between the costs of fighting and the costs of backing down. Offering a novel in-depth look at how willpower functions in international relations, Resolve in International Politics has critical implications for understanding political psychology, public opinion about foreign policy, leaders in military interventions, and international security.

Theory of International Politics

Kenneth Neal Waltz
Theory of International Politics Book PDF

Author : Kenneth Neal Waltz
Publisher : McGraw-Hill Humanities, Social Sciences & World Languages
Page : 264 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 1979
Category : Political Science
ISBN : UOM:39015048775277

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Theory of International Politics by Kenneth Neal Waltz Pdf

Forfatterens mål med denne bog er: 1) Analyse af de gældende teorier for international politik og hvad der heri er lagt størst vægt på. 2) Konstruktion af en teori for international politik som kan kan råde bod på de mangler, der er i de nu gældende. 3) Afprøvning af den rekonstruerede teori på faktiske hændelsesforløb.

Political Psychology in International Relations

Rose McDermott
Political Psychology in International Relations Book PDF

Author : Rose McDermott
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
Page : 324 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2004-04-12
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 047206701X

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Political Psychology in International Relations by Rose McDermott Pdf

A comprehensive account of the field of political psychology with a focus on its implications for international relations

Why Intelligence Fails

Robert Jervis
Why Intelligence Fails Book PDF

Author : Robert Jervis
Publisher : Cornell University Press
Page : 248 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2010-12-15
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780801457616

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Why Intelligence Fails by Robert Jervis Pdf

The U.S. government spends enormous resources each year on the gathering and analysis of intelligence, yet the history of American foreign policy is littered with missteps and misunderstandings that have resulted from intelligence failures. In Why Intelligence Fails, Robert Jervis examines the politics and psychology of two of the more spectacular intelligence failures in recent memory: the mistaken belief that the regime of the Shah in Iran was secure and stable in 1978, and the claim that Iraq had active WMD programs in 2002. The Iran case is based on a recently declassified report Jervis was commissioned to undertake by CIA thirty years ago and includes memoranda written by CIA officials in response to Jervis's findings. The Iraq case, also grounded in a review of the intelligence community's performance, is based on close readings of both classified and declassified documents, though Jervis's conclusions are entirely supported by evidence that has been declassified. In both cases, Jervis finds not only that intelligence was badly flawed but also that later explanations—analysts were bowing to political pressure and telling the White House what it wanted to hear or were willfully blind—were also incorrect. Proponents of these explanations claimed that initial errors were compounded by groupthink, lack of coordination within the government, and failure to share information. Policy prescriptions, including the recent establishment of a Director of National Intelligence, were supposed to remedy the situation. In Jervis's estimation, neither the explanations nor the prescriptions are adequate. The inferences that intelligence drew were actually quite plausible given the information available. Errors arose, he concludes, from insufficient attention to the ways in which information should be gathered and interpreted, a lack of self-awareness about the factors that led to the judgments, and an organizational culture that failed to probe for weaknesses and explore alternatives. Evaluating the inherent tensions between the methods and aims of intelligence personnel and policymakers from a unique insider's perspective, Jervis forcefully criticizes recent proposals for improving the performance of the intelligence community and discusses ways in which future analysis can be improved.

Psychology and Deterrence

Robert Jervis,Richard Ned Lebow,Janice Gross Stein
Psychology and Deterrence Book PDF

Author : Robert Jervis,Richard Ned Lebow,Janice Gross Stein
Publisher : JHU Press
Page : 401 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 1989-04-01
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781421401331

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Psychology and Deterrence by Robert Jervis,Richard Ned Lebow,Janice Gross Stein Pdf

Detterence is the most basic concept in American foreign policy today. But past practice indicates it often fails to work - and may increase the risk of war. Psychology and Deterrence reveals this stratgy's hidden and generally simplistic assumptions about the nature of power and aggression, threat and response, and calculation and behavior in the international arena. Most current analysis, the authors, note, ignore decisionmakers' emotions, preceptions, and domestic political needs, assuming instead that people repond to crisis in highly rational ways. Examining the historical evidence from a psychological perspective, Psychology and Deterrence offers case studies on the origins of World War I, the 1973 Arab-Israeli conflict, and the Falklands Wars as seen by the most important participants. These case studies reveal national leaders to be both more cautious and more reckless than theory would predict. They also show how deterrence strategies often backfire by aggravating a nation's sense of insequrity, thereby calling forth the very behavior they seek to prevent. The authors' conclusions offer important insights for superpower bargaining and nuclear deterrence.

Knowing the Adversary

Keren Yarhi-Milo
Knowing the Adversary Book PDF

Author : Keren Yarhi-Milo
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 369 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2014-07-21
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781400850419

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Knowing the Adversary by Keren Yarhi-Milo Pdf

States are more likely to engage in risky and destabilizing actions such as military buildups and preemptive strikes if they believe their adversaries pose a tangible threat. Yet despite the crucial importance of this issue, we don't know enough about how states and their leaders draw inferences about their adversaries' long-term intentions. Knowing the Adversary draws on a wealth of historical archival evidence to shed new light on how world leaders and intelligence organizations actually make these assessments. Keren Yarhi-Milo examines three cases: Britain's assessments of Nazi Germany's intentions in the 1930s, America's assessments of the Soviet Union's intentions during the Carter administration, and the Reagan administration's assessments of Soviet intentions near the end of the Cold War. She advances a new theoretical framework—called selective attention—that emphasizes organizational dynamics, personal diplomatic interactions, and cognitive and affective factors. Yarhi-Milo finds that decision makers don't pay as much attention to those aspects of state behavior that major theories of international politics claim they do. Instead, they tend to determine the intentions of adversaries on the basis of preexisting beliefs, theories, and personal impressions. Yarhi-Milo also shows how intelligence organizations rely on very different indicators than decision makers, focusing more on changes in the military capabilities of adversaries. Knowing the Adversary provides a clearer picture of the historical validity of existing theories, and broadens our understanding of the important role that diplomacy plays in international security.

Revolution and War

Stephen M. Walt
Revolution and War Book PDF

Author : Stephen M. Walt
Publisher : Cornell University Press
Page : 382 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2013-08-09
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780801470011

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Revolution and War by Stephen M. Walt Pdf

Revolution within a state almost invariably leads to intense security competition between states, and often to war. In Revolution and War, Stephen M. Walt explains why this is so, and suggests how the risk of conflicts brought on by domestic upheaval might be reduced in the future. In doing so, he explores one of the basic questions of international relations: What are the connections between domestic politics and foreign policy? Walt begins by exposing the flaws in existing theories about the relationship between revolution and war. Drawing on the theoretical literature about revolution and the realist perspective on international politics, he argues that revolutions cause wars by altering the balance of threats between a revolutionary state and its rivals. Each state sees the other as both a looming danger and a vulnerable adversary, making war seem both necessary and attractive. Walt traces the dynamics of this argument through detailed studies of the French, Russian, and Iranian revolutions, and through briefer treatment of the American, Mexican, Turkish, and Chinese cases. He also considers the experience of the Soviet Union, whose revolutionary transformation led to conflict within the former Soviet empire but not with the outside world. An important refinement of realist approaches to international politics, this book unites the study of revolution with scholarship on the causes of war.

Secrets in Global Governance

Allison Carnegie,Austin Carson
Secrets in Global Governance Book PDF

Author : Allison Carnegie,Austin Carson
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 363 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2020-06-18
Category : Law
ISBN : 9781108478571

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Secrets in Global Governance by Allison Carnegie,Austin Carson Pdf

Secrecy in international organizations foster information disclosures and cooperation in areas from nuclear weapons to international trade.

International Theory

James Der Derian
International Theory Book PDF

Author : James Der Derian
Publisher : Springer
Page : 422 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2016-07-27
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781349237739

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International Theory by James Der Derian Pdf

Reinvestigates realism in the context of international relations through a dialogue between classical international theory and critical theoretical challenges to it. Essays in international theory are combined with writings in critical and postructuralist theories of international relations.