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Prices, Quantities, and Expectations by P. J. N. Sinclair Pdf
A special issue of "Oxford Economic Papers". This volume honours Keynes by gathering contemporary analysis of the issues upon which he initiated discussion.
This book deals with economic theory, not methodology. It does employ certain methodological resolutions. These resolutions and the limitations they impose on the nature and the scope of the analysis are reviewed. The first resolution concerns what kind of a theory is to be discussed. The word theory may mean many things; it may mean a hypothesis put forward as an explanation of something, an idea, or a notion. In a normative sense it may mean a recommendation, a rule, or principle to be followed. In science it usually means a system of hypotheses to be accepted as an explanation of certain facts, a set of general laws, and principles. It is also used to distinguish the general principles and methods of a subject from the practice of it.The theory with which this volume is concerned is that of science. In very general terms it may be defined as a system of hypotheses, one following from another, which permits the reader to derive from known facts and predictions of other facts. If the knowledge of the fact which we predict is important for us, in the sense that it permits us to achieve better the objectives we pursue, the theory may have a practical value. This book is therefore not only a contribution to the analysis of expectations but also an introduction to a number of selected topics in economic theory.
Inflation Expectations by Peter J. N. Sinclair Pdf
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
"Macroeconomics" builds a number of macroeconomic models applying the non-Walrasian methodology. The literature on the subject has grown so rapidly in recent years that it would be unreasonable to try to give an exhaustive account of all existing models in the field. We have thus chosen to present here some models that cover as large a number of questions as possible within a simple and unified framework. We also want to bridge the gap with traditional macroeconomics while extending the analysis on various points, which be investigated by purposely making each time the simplest possible assumptions about the formation of the various prices (or, when needed, expectations) involved. This will allow us to demonstrate in a straightforward manner the synthetic qualities of the theory, both by making a natural synthesis with traditional macroeconomics, where similar simple assumptions are made, and by treating a large number of topics while using throughout a very unified macroframework.
The excitement of learning economics for the first time. The experience of a lifetime of teaching it. The Eighth Edition of Exploring Microeconomics captures the excitement of learning microeconomics for the first time through a lively and encouraging narrative that connects microeconomics to the world in a way that is familiar to students. Author Robert L. Sexton draws on over 25 years of teaching experience to capture students’ attention, focusing on core concepts and expertly weaving in examples from current events and popular culture to make even classic economic principles modern and relatable. The text sticks to the basics and applies a thoughtful learning design, segmenting its presentation into brief, visually appealing, self-contained sections that are easier for students to digest and retain compared to sprawling text. Thoughtfully placed section quizzes, interactive summaries, and problem sets help students check their comprehension at regular intervals and develop the critical thinking skills that will allow them to "think like economists." Combined with a complete teaching and learning package, Exploring Microeconomics is sure to help you ignite your students’ passion for the field and reveal its practical application in the world around them.
Overlapping Generations by Stephen E. Spear,Warren Young Pdf
The 800 pound gorilla in the room of macroeconomics is the question of why the overlapping generations model didn’t become the central workhorse model for macroeconomics, as opposed to the neoclassical growth model. The authors here explore the co-evolution of the two models.
Inflation Expectations and the Supply Chain by Elías Albagli,Mr. Francesco Grigoli,Emiliano Luttini Pdf
We show that firms rely on price changes observed along their supply chain to form expectations about aggregate inflation, and that these expectations have a complete pass-through to sales prices. Leveraging a unique dataset on Chilean firms merging expectation surveys and records from the VAT and customs registries, we document that changes in prices at which firms purchase inputs inform their forecasts of the economy’s inflation. This is the case even if changes in input costs do not determine the inflation outcome. These findings reject the full-information rational-expectations hypothesis and are consistent with firms’ disagreement about future inflation and inattention to macroeconomic news, which we document for Chile. Our results from a firm-level Phillips’ curve estimation suggest that firms’ beliefs about inflation are a key determinant for their price-setting decisions. Therefore, we argue that the channel we highlight in this paper has the potential to lead to dispersion in inflation expectations, price dispersion, and weaken the expectation channel of policies.
Price Expectations and the U.S. Housing Boom by Pascal Towbin,Mr.Sebastian Weber Pdf
Between 1996 and 2006 the U.S. has experienced an unprecedented boom in house prices. As it has proven to be difficult to explain the large price increase by observable fundamentals, many observers have emphasized the role of speculation, i.e. expectations about future price developments. The argument is, however, often indirect: speculation is treated as a deviation from a benchmark. The present paper aims to identify house price expectation shocks directly. To that purpose, we estimate a VAR model for the U.S. and use sign restrictions to identify house price expectation, housing supply, housing demand, and mortgage rate shocks. House price expectation shocks are the most important driver of the boom and account for about 30 percent of the real house price increase. We also construct a model-based measure of exogenous changes in price expectations and show that this measure leads a survey-based measure of changes in house price expectations. Our main identification scheme leaves open whether expectation shifts are realistic or unrealistic. In extensions, we provide evidence that price expectation shifts during the boom were primarily unrealistic and were only marginally affected by realistic expectations about future fundamentals.
Handbook of Economic Expectations by Ruediger Bachmann,Giorgio Topa,Wilbert van der Klaauw Pdf
Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. Combines information about the creation of economic expectations and their theories, applications and likely futures Provides a comprehensive summary of economics expectations literature Explores empirical and theoretical dimensions of expectations and their relevance to a wide array of subfields in economics
The Indian software industry has rapidly grown over the past decade, most of this growth has been derived from exports to the US market. This book deals with business models, particularly as the way that the software model in India has evolved is unique. It focuses on manpower resources in the software industry and knowledge diffusion through job switching and how this impacts on business strategy. The book uses primary data obtained through interviews and surveys including input from company managers.
The development of European unification has reached a critical stage. Despite 75 years of peace, increases in welfare, and growth since World War 2, there is now a growing scepticism of the European agenda from various quarters, most notably embodied in the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union. To fully understand the dynamics at work, this book presents an introduction to the development of the political economy of Europe from 1900 to 2020. The first part of the book provides an overview of European economic and political history from 1900 to the present. It is clear from this history that Europe’s population, and most notably its leaders, have been deeply influenced by ideology during this time. This sets the context for the second part of the book, which takes a closer look at some major paradigms framing European dynamics: (1) the market-oriented paradigm, (2) Marx’s paradigm, and (3) the fascist paradigm. In this part, the essential core of each of these paradigms is presented and critiqued. In the third part, the current bottlenecks of European evolution (the migration crisis, Brexit, rise of new Fascism, the climate crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic) are investigated in the light of a possible emergence of a new scientific paradigm. Europe’s role in the global division of labour – its possibility to serve as a role model for the advantages of democratically governing a highly diverse set of populations – is also explained. This book is an ideal text for students undertaking courses on the political economy of Europe in either economics or politics departments.
Expectations by Arie Arnon,Warren Young,Karine van der Beek Pdf
This book provides a unique historical perspective on expectations in economic theory, and applications of expectations models in economic history. Based on papers presented at the 2017 Thomas Guggenheim Conference, it brings together the work of economists, historians of economics, and economic historians on issues and events concerning expectations in economics and economic history. The contributions address: (i) the history of expectations models; (ii) growth, expectations and political economy; (iii) controversies regarding expectations methods and models; (iv) expectations in theory and reality; and (v) expectations in economic history. The book opens with a lecture by Thomas Guggenheim Prize winner Duncan Foley on the evolution of expectations in modern economic thought. The remaining content is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on the utilization of expectations in the “ancient” and “meso” periods of high theory, i.e., from Smithian to Keynesian approaches. The papers cover topics such as “modern” applications of expectations in both “Tobinesque-Phillips” and “Harrodian-Solowian” contexts, and the debate between Friedmanite and Keynesian approaches to expectation formation. In turn, the last part presents essays on the role of economic expectations in connection with historical events and contexts, ranging from the early 20th century to World War II, and on the application of expectations theory to hyperinflation and stabilization, taking Israel as a case study.
Expectation, Enterprise and Profit by G. L. S. Shackle Pdf
Production is a complex system of interdependent activities, necessary to the system as a whole, which itself depends on the continuance of each individual activity that composes it. In such a system, resources must be committed to specific technological purposes long in advance to the ultimate sale of goods to the consumer.The success of such an enterprise system rests on the durability of the instruments it uses. These are so complex, sensitive, and powerful that their huge expense can be recovered only if they can be used for many years. Yet when the decision is made to invest in them, those years of use are in the future and the conditioning circumstances are unobservable and unknown.The firm in Western economies is the essential institutional means of confronting this problem of uncertainty, Expectation, Enterprise and Profit: The Theory of the Firm is concerned with the nature and mode of life of the firm as a means of policy formation in the face of uncertainty.This book offers a concise treatment and excellent analysis of the major concepts studied in a first course in the theory of the firm.
