Probabilistic Risk Analysis And Bayesian Decision Theory

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Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Bayesian Decision Theory

Marcel van Oijen,Mark Brewer
Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Bayesian Decision Theory Book PDF

Author : Marcel van Oijen,Mark Brewer
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 118 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2022-11-23
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9783031163333

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Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Bayesian Decision Theory by Marcel van Oijen,Mark Brewer Pdf

The book shows how risk, defined as the statistical expectation of loss, can be formally decomposed as the product of two terms: hazard probability and system vulnerability. This requires a specific definition of vulnerability that replaces the many fuzzy definitions abounding in the literature. The approach is expanded to more complex risk analysis with three components rather than two, and with various definitions of hazard. Equations are derived to quantify the uncertainty of each risk component and show how the approach relates to Bayesian decision theory. Intended for statisticians, environmental scientists and risk analysts interested in the theory and application of risk analysis, this book provides precise definitions, new theory, and many examples with full computer code. The approach is based on straightforward use of probability theory which brings rigour and clarity. Only a moderate knowledge and understanding of probability theory is expected from the reader.

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

Norman Fenton,Martin Neil
Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks Book PDF

Author : Norman Fenton,Martin Neil
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 638 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2018-09-03
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781351978972

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Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks by Norman Fenton,Martin Neil Pdf

Since the first edition of this book published, Bayesian networks have become even more important for applications in a vast array of fields. This second edition includes new material on influence diagrams, learning from data, value of information, cybersecurity, debunking bad statistics, and much more. Focusing on practical real-world problem-solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, it explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide more powerful insights and better decision making than is possible from purely data-driven solutions. Features Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, forensics, cybersecurity and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed Establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using Bayesian network models, before going into the detailed applications A dedicated website contains exercises and worked solutions for all chapters along with numerous other resources. The AgenaRisk software contains a model library with executable versions of all of the models in the book. Lecture slides are freely available to accredited academic teachers adopting the book on their course.

Decisions under Uncertainty

Ian Jordaan
Decisions under Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Ian Jordaan
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2005-04-07
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781316584033

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Decisions under Uncertainty by Ian Jordaan Pdf

To better understand the core concepts of probability and to see how they affect real-world decisions about design and system performance, engineers and scientists might want to ask themselves the following questions: what exactly is meant by probability? What is the precise definition of the 100-year load and how is it calculated? What is an 'extremal' probability distribution? What is the Bayesian approach? How is utility defined? How do games fit into probability theory? What is entropy? How do I apply these ideas in risk analysis? Starting from the most basic assumptions, this 2005 book develops a coherent theory of probability and broadens it into applications in decision theory, design, and risk analysis. This book is written for engineers and scientists interested in probability and risk. It can be used by undergraduates, graduate students, or practicing engineers.

Bayesian Compendium

Marcel van Oijen
Bayesian Compendium Book PDF

Author : Marcel van Oijen
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 209 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2020-09-17
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9783030558970

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Bayesian Compendium by Marcel van Oijen Pdf

This book describes how Bayesian methods work. Its primary aim is to demystify them, and to show readers: Bayesian thinking isn’t difficult and can be used in virtually every kind of research. In addition to revealing the underlying simplicity of statistical methods, the book explains how to parameterise and compare models while accounting for uncertainties in data, model parameters and model structures. How exactly should data be used in modelling? The literature offers a bewildering variety of techniques and approaches (Bayesian calibration, data assimilation, Kalman filtering, model-data fusion, etc). This book provides a short and easy guide to all of these and more. It was written from a unifying Bayesian perspective, which reveals how the multitude of techniques and approaches are in fact all related to one another. Basic notions from probability theory are introduced. Executable code examples are included to enhance the book’s practical use for scientific modellers, and all code is available online as well.

Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis

James O. Berger
Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis Book PDF

Author : James O. Berger
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 633 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2013-03-14
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781475742862

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Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis by James O. Berger Pdf

In this new edition the author has added substantial material on Bayesian analysis, including lengthy new sections on such important topics as empirical and hierarchical Bayes analysis, Bayesian calculation, Bayesian communication, and group decision making. With these changes, the book can be used as a self-contained introduction to Bayesian analysis. In addition, much of the decision-theoretic portion of the text was updated, including new sections covering such modern topics as minimax multivariate (Stein) estimation.

Probabilistic Risk Analysis

Tim Bedford,Roger Cooke
Probabilistic Risk Analysis Book PDF

Author : Tim Bedford,Roger Cooke
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2001-04-30
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 0521773202

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Probabilistic Risk Analysis by Tim Bedford,Roger Cooke Pdf

A graduate level textbook on probabilistic risk analysis, aimed at statisticians, operations researchers and engineers.

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment

Terje Aven,Piero Baraldi,Roger Flage,Enrico Zio
Uncertainty in Risk Assessment Book PDF

Author : Terje Aven,Piero Baraldi,Roger Flage,Enrico Zio
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 152 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2013-12-17
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781118763063

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Uncertainty in Risk Assessment by Terje Aven,Piero Baraldi,Roger Flage,Enrico Zio Pdf

Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.

Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics V

Shanti S. Gupta,James O. Berger
Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics V Book PDF

Author : Shanti S. Gupta,James O. Berger
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 535 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781461226185

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Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics V by Shanti S. Gupta,James O. Berger Pdf

The Fifth Purdue International Symposium on Statistical Decision The was held at Purdue University during the period of ory and Related Topics June 14-19,1992. The symposium brought together many prominent leaders and younger researchers in statistical decision theory and related areas. The format of the Fifth Symposium was different from the previous symposia in that in addition to the 54 invited papers, there were 81 papers presented in contributed paper sessions. Of the 54 invited papers presented at the sym posium, 42 are collected in this volume. The papers are grouped into a total of six parts: Part 1 - Retrospective on Wald's Decision Theory and Sequential Analysis; Part 2 - Asymptotics and Nonparametrics; Part 3 - Bayesian Analysis; Part 4 - Decision Theory and Selection Procedures; Part 5 - Probability and Probabilistic Structures; and Part 6 - Sequential, Adaptive, and Filtering Problems. While many of the papers in the volume give the latest theoretical developments in these areas, a large number are either applied or creative review papers.

Uncertainty and Risk

Mohammed Abdellaoui,R. Duncan Luce,Mark J. Machina,Bertrand Munier
Uncertainty and Risk Book PDF

Author : Mohammed Abdellaoui,R. Duncan Luce,Mark J. Machina,Bertrand Munier
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 299 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2007-08-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783540489351

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Uncertainty and Risk by Mohammed Abdellaoui,R. Duncan Luce,Mark J. Machina,Bertrand Munier Pdf

This book tries to sort out the different meanings of uncertainty and to discover their foundations. It shows that uncertainty can be represented using various tools and mental guidelines. Coverage also examines alternative ways to deal with risk and risk attitude concepts. Behavior under uncertainty emerges from this book as something to base more on inquiry and reflection rather than on mere intuition.

Foundations of Risk Analysis

Terje Aven
Foundations of Risk Analysis Book PDF

Author : Terje Aven
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2004-01-09
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780470871232

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Foundations of Risk Analysis by Terje Aven Pdf

Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis ? expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support decision making. Presents a statistical framework for dealing with risk and uncertainty. Includes detailed coverage of building and applying risk models and methods. Offers new perspectives on risk, risk assessment and the use of parametric probability models. Highlights a number of applications from business and industry. Adopts a conceptual approach based on elementary probability calculus and statistical theory. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.

Foundations of Risk Analysis

Terje Aven
Foundations of Risk Analysis Book PDF

Author : Terje Aven
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 245 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2012-04-09
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781119966975

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Foundations of Risk Analysis by Terje Aven Pdf

Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis – understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes: An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe risk based on research carried out in recent years. A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the understanding of risk. Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to measure/describe uncertainties. A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities. In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

Norman Fenton,Martin Neil
Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks Book PDF

Author : Norman Fenton,Martin Neil
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 516 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2012-11-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781439809112

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Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks by Norman Fenton,Martin Neil Pdf

Although many Bayesian Network (BN) applications are now in everyday use, BNs have not yet achieved mainstream penetration. Focusing on practical real-world problem solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide powerful insights and better decision making. Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed The book first establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using BN models, then goes into the detailed applications. The underlying BN algorithms appear in appendices rather than the main text since there is no need to understand them to build and use BN models. Keeping the body of the text free of intimidating mathematics, the book provides pragmatic advice about model building to ensure models are built efficiently. A dedicated website, www.BayesianRisk.com, contains executable versions of all of the models described, exercises and worked solutions for all chapters, PowerPoint slides, numerous other resources, and a free downloadable copy of the AgenaRisk software.

Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk Analysis

Ray Waller
Low Probability High Consequence Risk Analysis Book PDF

Author : Ray Waller
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 561 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2013-11-21
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781475718188

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Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk Analysis by Ray Waller Pdf

In recent years public attention has focused on an array of low-probability/high-consequence (LC/HC) events that pose a signif icant threat to human health, safety, and the environment. At the same time, public and private sector responsibilities for the assessment and management of such events have grown because of a perceived need to anticipate, prevent, or reduce the risks. In attempting to meet these responsibilities, legislative, judicial, regulatory, and private sector institutions have had to deal with the extraordinarily complex problem of assessing and balancing LP/ HC risks against the costs and ben if its of risk reduction. The need to help society cope with LP/HC events such as nuclear power plant accidents, toxic spills, chemical plant explosions, and transportation accidents has given rise to the development of a new intellectual endeavor: LP/HC risk analysis. The scope and complexity of these analyses require a high degree of cooperative effort on the part of specialists from many f~elds. Analyzing technical, social, and value issues requires the efforts of physicists, biologists, geneticists, statisticians, chemists, engineers, political scientists, sociologists, decision analysts, management scientists, economists, psychologists, ethicists, lawyers, and policy analysts. Included in this volume are papers by authors in each of these disciplines. The papers share in common a focus on one or more of the following questions that are generic to the analysis of LP/HC risks.

Probability and Bayesian Statistics

R. Viertl
Probability and Bayesian Statistics Book PDF

Author : R. Viertl
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 505 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781461318859

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Probability and Bayesian Statistics by R. Viertl Pdf

This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics and stochastic processes, to real applications in economics, reliability and hydrology. Also the question is raised if it is necessary to develop new techniques to model and analyze fuzzy observations in samples. The articles are arranged in alphabetical order according to the family name of the first author of each paper to avoid a hierarchical ordering of importance of the different topics. Readers interested in special topics can use the index at the end of the book as guide.

Probability and Risk Analysis

Igor Rychlik,Jesper Rydén
Probability and Risk Analysis Book PDF

Author : Igor Rychlik,Jesper Rydén
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 287 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2006-10-07
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9783540395218

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Probability and Risk Analysis by Igor Rychlik,Jesper Rydén Pdf

This text presents notions and ideas at the foundations of a statistical treatment of risks. The focus is on statistical applications within the field of engineering risk and safety analysis. Coverage includes Bayesian methods. Such knowledge facilitates the understanding of the influence of random phenomena and gives a deeper understanding of the role of probability in risk analysis. The text is written for students who have studied elementary undergraduate courses in engineering mathematics, perhaps including a minor course in statistics. This book differs from typical textbooks in its verbal approach to many explanations and examples.