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Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis by Paul R. Garvey,Stephen A. Book,Raymond P. Covert Pdf
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Second Edition gives you a thorough grounding in the analytical methods needed for modeling and measuring uncertainty in the cost of engineering systems. This includes the treatment of correlation between the cost of system elements, how to present the analysis to
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis by Paul R. Garvey,Stephen A. Book,Raymond P. Covert Pdf
A careful blend of theory and practice, this book presents a comprehensive approach to assessing the impact of unplanned events on the cost of engineering complex systems. It illustrates how probability theory is applied to model, measure, and manage risk in the cost of a systems engineering project. The book contains numerous mathematical and prof
Subjective Probability Distribution Elicitation in Cost Risk Analysis by Lionel A. Galway Pdf
A cost estimate for a project such as the acquisition of a new aircraft or satellite system carries with it an inherent probability that the actual cost will exceed the estimate-that changes in requirements, technology, the economic environment, and a multitude of other factors that may occur over the life of the project will change the final cost. One major approach to cost risk analysis-the evaluating and quantifying of the uncertainty of a cost estimate-has been probabilistic: expressing the uncertainty in a cost estimate as a probability distribution over a range of potential costs. Cost analysts in industry and government and researchers in statistics and management have often proposed that, to get probability distributions for platforms using new and untried technologies, expert judgment should be tapped and subjective probability distributions elicited from the experts to represent cost uncertainty. This technical report reviews procedures for eliciting subjective probability distributions in cost risk analysis, both in the cost risk field and in other disciplines in which elicitation has been a topic of research-primarily, statistics and psychology. Because of a lack of empirical work in elicitation, especially in cost risk, the author also interviewed a number of senior people in the cost risk community, who gave insight into the practices of the field. This report should be of interest to cost analysis professionals who wish to quantify uncertainty when using expert opinions in cost risk analysis.
Uncertainty in Risk Assessment by Terje Aven,Piero Baraldi,Roger Flage,Enrico Zio Pdf
Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Cost Estimation by Gregory K. Mislick,Daniel A. Nussbaum Pdf
Presents an accessible approach to the cost estimation tools, concepts, and techniques needed to support analytical and cost decisions Written with an easy-to-understand approach, Cost Estimation: Methods and Tools provides comprehensive coverage of the quantitative techniques needed by professional cost estimators and for those wanting to learn about this vibrant career field. Featuring the underlying mathematical and analytical principles of cost estimation, the book focuses on the tools and methods used to predict the research and development, production, and operating and support costs for successful cost estimation in industrial, business, and manufacturing processes. The book begins with a detailed historical perspective and key terms of the cost estimating field in order to develop the necessary background prior to implementing the presented quantitative methods. The book proceeds to fundamental cost estimation methods utilized in the field of cost estimation, including working with inflation indices, regression analysis, learning curves, analogies, cost factors, and wrap rates. With a step-by-step introduction to the practicality of cost estimation and the available resources for obtaining relevant data, Cost Estimation: Methods and Tools also features: Various cost estimating tools, concepts, and techniques needed to support business decisions Multiple questions at the end of each chapter to help readers obtain a deeper understanding of the discussed methods and techniques An overview of the software used in cost estimation, as well as an introduction to the application of risk and uncertainty analysis A Foreword from Dr. Douglas A. Brook, a professor in the Graduate School of Business and Public Policy at the Naval Postgraduate School, who spent many years working in the Department of Defense acquisition environment Cost Estimation: Methods and Tools is an excellent reference for academics and practitioners in decision science, operations research, operations management, business, and systems and industrial engineering, as well as a useful guide in support of professional cost estimation training and certification courses for practitioners. The book is also appropriate for graduate-level courses in operations research, operations management, engineering economics, and manufacturing and/or production processes.
This book is designed to introduce designers, engineers, technologists, estimators, project managers, and financial analysts as well as students in engineering and business to strategic cost tools for project cost evaluations. The three main sections are as follows. (1) Cost Relationships, Financial Statements, and Performance Measures—This section describes the relationships between cash flows and profits; the relationships between financial statements and the Purcell Diagram; and the issues of cost estimating, time-based breakeven analysis and time-based earned schedule. (2) Tools for Economic Evaluations—This section considers the basic mathematical relations used behind the economic equations and factors; discrete and continuous interest; depreciation terms and methods; and the Present Value of Principal Approach for evaluating loans. (3) Methods for Project Evaluation and Risk Analysis—This section considers payback periods, present worth analysis, return on investment, internal rate of return, benefit/cost ratios and positive-negative project balances; risk techniques of sensitivity analysis, optimistic-pessimistic analysis, discrete probability examples, and continuous probability models using the normal and triangular distributions.
Cost Analysis and Estimating by Willis R., Jr. Greer,Daniel A. Nussbaum Pdf
Changes in production processes reflect the technological advances permeat ing our products and services. U. S. industry is modernizing and automating. In parallel, direct labor is fading as the primary cost driver while engineering and technology related cost elements loom ever larger. Traditional, labor-based ap proaches to estimating costs are losing their relevance. Old methods require aug mentation with new estimating tools and techniques that capture the emerging environment. This volume represents one of many responses to this challenge by the cost analysis profession. The Institute of Cost Analysis (lCA) is dedicated to improving the effective ness of cost and price analysis and enhancing the professional competence of its members. We encourage and promote exchange of research findings and appli cations between the academic community and cost professionals in industry and government. The 1990 National Meeting in Los Angeles, jointly spo~sored by ICA and the National Estimating Society (NES), provides such a forum. Presen tations will focus on new and improved tools and techniques of cost analysis. This volume is the second in a series. The first was produced in conjunction with the 1989 National Meeting of ICA/NES in Washington, D.C. The articles in this volume, all refereed, were selected from about 100 submitted for presen tation at the Los Angeles meeting.
GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide by Barry Leonard Pdf
To use public funds effectively, the gov¿t. must meet the demands of today's changing world by employing effective mgmt. practices and processes, including the measurement of gov¿t. program performance. Legislators, gov¿t. officials, and the public want to know whether gov¿t. programs are achieving their goals and what their costs are. To make those evaluations, reliable cost information is required and fed. standards have been issued for the cost accounting that is needed to prepare that information. This Cost Guide has been developed in order to establish a consistent methodology that is based on best practices and that can be used across the fed. gov¿t. for developing, managing, and evaluating capital program cost estimates. Illustrations.
This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives."
Military Cost–Benefit Analysis by Francois Melese,Anke Richter,Binyam Solomon Pdf
This is the first comprehensive book on Military Cost-Benefit Analysis and provides novel approaches to structuring cost-benefit and affordability analysis amidst an uncertain defense environment and cloudy fiscal prospects. Lifting the veil on military Cost-Benefit Analysis, this volume offers several new practical tools designed to guide defense investments (and divestments), combined with a selection of real-world applications. The widespread employment of Cost-Benefit Analysis offers a unique opportunity to transform legacy defense forces into efficient, effective, and accountable 21st century organizations. A synthesis of economics, statistics and decision theory, CBA is currently used in a wide range of defense applications in countries around the world: i) to shape national security strategy, ii) to set acquisition policy, and iii) to inform critical investments in people, equipment, infrastructure, services and supplies. As sovereign debt challenges squeeze national budgets, and emerging threats disrupt traditional notions of security, this volume offers valuable tools to navigate the political landscape, meet calls for fiscal accountability, and boost the effectiveness of defense investments to help guarantee future peace and stability. A valuable resource for scholars, practitioners, novices and experts, this book offers a comprehensive overview of Military Cost-Benefit Analysis and will appeal to anyone interested or involved in improving national security, and will also be of general interest to those responsible for major government programs, projects or policies.
Analytical Methods for Risk Management by Paul R. Garvey Pdf
A Text on the Foundation Processes, Analytical Principles, and Implementation Practices of Engineering Risk Management Drawing from the author's many years of hands-on experience in the field, Analytical Methods for Risk Management: A Systems Engineering Perspectivepresents the foundation processes and analytical practices
Systems Lifecycle Cost-Effectiveness by Massimo Pica Pdf
Traditional costing models for new systems and new buildings in industry, defence or government, have tended to focus on the costs of acquisition and implementation, with scant regard for the costs of running the system or decommissioning after use. The pressure to minimize expenditure and provide value for money from reduced resources means that complex projects have to encompass a wide range of often conflicting issues and interests. Systems Lifecycle Cost-Effectiveness shows how to manage the difficulties that can arise. Optimizing the system lifecycle cost-effectiveness is complex and influenced by many factors. Massimo Pica presents a variety of models for calculating cost, benefits and risk in projects, and explains how the human factors associated with a system’s design and consequent value are as important as the technical costs associated with its construction or creation. This comprehensive text can be used by students, experienced system engineers, cost analysts and managers to improve their understanding of the wide range of issues involved in the evaluation of system life cycle cost-effectiveness.
Beyond Beta by Samuel Kotz,Johan Ren Van Dorp Pdf
Statistical distributions are fundamental to Statistical Science and are a prime indispensable tool for its applications. This monograph is the first to examine an important but somewhat neglected field — univariate continuous distribution on a bounded domain, excluding the beta distribution. It provides an elementary but thorough discussion of “novel” contributions developed in recent years, such as the two-sided power, generalized trapezoidal and generalized Topp and Leone distributions, among others. It discusses a general framework for constructing two-sided distributions and some of its properties. It contains a comprehensive chapter on the triangular distribution as well as a chapter on earlier extensions not emphasized in existing literature. Special attention is given to estimation, in particular, non-standard maximum likelihood procedures. The applications are drawn mainly from the econometric and engineering domains.
Brick and Block Masonry by Claudio Modena,F. da Porto,M.R. Valluzzi Pdf
Brick and Block Masonry - Trends, Innovations and Challenges contains the lectures and regular papers presented at the 16th International Brick and Block Masonry Conference (Padova, Italy, 26-30 June 2016). The contributions cover major topics: - Analysis of masonry structures - Bond of composites to masonry - Building physics and durability - Case studies - Codes and standards - Conservation of historic buildings - Earthen constructions - Eco-materials and sustainability - Fire resistance, blasts, and impacts - Masonry bridges, arches and vaults - Masonry infill walls and RC frames - Masonry materials and testing - Masonry repair and strengthening - New construction techniques and technologies - Reinforced and confined masonry - Seismic performance and vulnerability assessment In an ever-changing world, in which innovations are rapidly implemented but soon surpassed, the challenge for masonry, the oldest and most traditional building material, is that it can address the increasingly pressing requirements of quality of living, safety, and sustainability. This abstracts volume and full paper USB device, focusing on challenges, innovations, trends and ideas related to masonry, in both research and building practice, will proof to be a valuable source of information for researchers and practitioners, masonry industries and building management authorities, construction professionals and educators.
