Probability Models Of Collective Decision Making

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Probability Models of Collective Decision Making

Author : Richard G. Niemi
Publisher : Merrill Publishing Company
Page : 440 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 1972
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39015002397142

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Probability Models of Collective Decision Making by Richard G. Niemi Pdf

Collective Decision-Making:

Author : Norman Schofield
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 430 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2013-03-09
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789401587679

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Collective Decision-Making: by Norman Schofield Pdf

In the last decade the techniques of social choice theory, game theory and positive political theory have been combined in interesting ways so as to pro vide a common framework for analyzing the behavior of a developed political economy. Social choice theory itself grew out of the innovative attempts by Ken neth Arrow (1951) and Duncan Black (1948, 1958) to extend the range of economic theory in order to deal with collective decision-making over public goods. Later work, by William Baumol (1952), and James Buchanan and Gordon Tullock (1962), focussed on providing an "economic" interpretation of democratic institutions. In the same period Anthony Downs (1957) sought to model representative democracy and elections while William Riker (1962) made use of work in cooperative game theory (by John von Neumann and Oscar Morgenstern, 1944) to study coalition behavior. In my view, these "rational choice" analyses of collective decision-making have their antecedents in the arguments of Adam Smith (1759, 1776), James Madison (1787) and the Marquis de Condorcet (1785) about the "design" of political institutions. In the introductory chapter to this volume I briefly describe how some of the current normative and positive aspects of social choice date back to these earlier writers.

Collective Decision Making

Author : Shmuel Nitzan,Jacob Paroush
Publisher : CUP Archive
Page : 152 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 1985-11-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0521303265

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Collective Decision Making by Shmuel Nitzan,Jacob Paroush Pdf

This book provides an economic approach to the study of collective decision making. In Social Choice theory, the main problem of collective decision making is normally conceived of as one of aggregating diverse individual preferences. However, in practice, objectives are often common to the individuals - whether, for instance, in the firm, or where a medical diagnosis is required - but the information available to each individual, and their ability to utilise that information optimally, differ. The authors therefore deal with a different problem of decisional skills aggregation assuming homogeneous preferences but differing decisional skills, and develop a framework for the study of collective decision making. They examine the effect of the size of the decision making body; incomplete information on decisional skills; interdependence among decisions; shadow prices of decision rules; and of decision making costs and benefits on optimal group decision making. The model is then illustrated in a range of different fields, including industrial organisation, labour economics and in the design of consulting schemes, medical diagnostic systems, and corporate law.

Voting and Collective Decision-Making

Author : Annick Laruelle,Federico Valenciano
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 184 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2008-09-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781139474290

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Voting and Collective Decision-Making by Annick Laruelle,Federico Valenciano Pdf

Every day thousands of decisions are made by all kinds of committees, parliaments, councils and boards by a 'yes-no' voting process. Sometimes a committee can only accept or reject the proposals submitted to it for a decision. On other occasions, committee members have the possibility of modifying the proposal and bargaining an agreement prior to the vote. In either case, what rule should be used if each member acts on behalf of a different-sized group? It seems intuitively clear that if the groups are of different sizes then a symmetric rule (e.g. the simple majority or unanimity) is not suitable. The question then arises of what voting rule should be used. Voting and Collective Decision-Making addresses this and other issues through a study of the theory of bargaining and voting power, showing how it applies to real decision-making contexts.

Multiperson Decision Making Models Using Fuzzy Sets and Possibility Theory

Author : J. Kacprzyk,Mario Fedrizzi
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 349 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789400921092

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Multiperson Decision Making Models Using Fuzzy Sets and Possibility Theory by J. Kacprzyk,Mario Fedrizzi Pdf

Decision making is certainly a very crucial component of many human activities. It is, therefore, not surprising that models of decisions play a very important role not only in decision theory but also in areas such as operations Research, Management science, social Psychology etc . . The basic model of a decision in classical normative decision theory has very little in common with real decision making: It portrays a decision as a clear-cut act of choice, performed by one individual decision maker and in which states of nature, possible actions, results and preferences are well and crisply defined. The only compo nent in which uncertainty is permitted is the occurence of the different states of nature, for which probabilistic descriptions are allowed. These probabilities are generally assumed to be known numerically, i. e. as single probabili ties or as probability distribution functions. Extensions of this basic model can primarily be conceived in three directions: 1. Rather than a single decision maker there are several decision makers involved. This has lead to the areas of game theory, team theory and group decision theory. 2. The preference or utility function is not single valued but rather vector valued. This extension is considered in multiattribute utility theory and in multicritieria analysis. 3.

Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition

Author : Roger B. Myerson,Eduardo Zambrano
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 569 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2019-12-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262355605

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Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition by Roger B. Myerson,Eduardo Zambrano Pdf

An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.

Individual and Small Group Decisions

Author : K.J. Radford
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 184 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2013-03-09
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781475720686

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Individual and Small Group Decisions by K.J. Radford Pdf

ecision making is one of the most important activities in both our profes D sional and our private lives today. The literature on the subject has grown considerably over the last fifty years and it now covers many different approaches to the subject. These approaches range from that of creating a mathematical model of the decision situation under consideration, as in operations research and other forms of mathematical decision analysis, to those that are based on human and organizational behavior. Recently, those working in the field have begun to combine approaches to the study of decision situations that arise in organizations, in our personal lives and in the communities in which we live. This book is an attempt to assist those concerned with decision making to work with this combination of approaches. In the past, decision problems have been considered according to the condi tions under which they arise and to some extent in terms of the approaches available for their resolution. Writers on the subject who are mathematically oriented have devised a method of classifying decisions based on the type of mathematics that they suggest be used in the resolution of the problems. This approach leads to the division of decision situations into the categories of cer tainty, uncertainty, risk and competition. Deterministic models available in oper ations research have then been offered as the means of treating decision situations in the category of certainty.

Probabilistic Voting Theory

Author : Peter J. Coughlin
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 276 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 1992-10-30
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780521360524

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Probabilistic Voting Theory by Peter J. Coughlin Pdf

Coughlin provides the most comprehensive and integrated analysis of probabilistic voting models available, also developing further his important contributions. Probabilistic voting theory is the mathematical theory of candidate behavior in or in anticipation of elections in which candidates are unsure what voters' preferences will be on all or most issues, which is true of most governmental elections. The theory asks first whether optimal candidate strategies can be determined, given uncertainty about voter preferences, and if so, what exactly those strategies are, given various circumstances. It allows the theorist to predict what public policies will be supported and what laws passed by elected officials when in office and what positions will be taken by them when running in elections. One of the leading contributors to this rapidly developing literature, which is at the leading edge of public choice theory, Coughlin both reviews the existing literature and presents new results that unify and extend developments in the theory that have been scattered in the literature.

Outlooks and Insights on Group Decision and Negotiation

Author : Bogumił Kamiński,Gregory E. Kersten,Tomasz Szapiro
Publisher : Springer
Page : 417 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2015-06-11
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783319195155

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Outlooks and Insights on Group Decision and Negotiation by Bogumił Kamiński,Gregory E. Kersten,Tomasz Szapiro Pdf

This book constitutes the proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Group Decision and Negotiation, GDN 2015, held in Warsaw, Poland, in June 2015. The GDN meetings aim to bring together researchers and practitioners from a wide spectrum of fields, including economics, management, computer science, engineering, and decision science. From a total of 119 submissions, 32 papers were accepted for publication in this volume. The papers are organized into topical sections on group problem structuring and negotiation, negotiation and group processes, preference analysis and decision support, formal models, voting and collective decision making, conflict resolution in energy and environmental management, negotiation support systems and studies, online collaboration and competition, and market mechanisms and their users.

The Trial Process

Author : Bruce Dennis Sales
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 515 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2013-11-11
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781468437676

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The Trial Process by Bruce Dennis Sales Pdf

As noted in the Preface to Volume 1 in this series, the goal of Perspectives in Law and Psychology is to provide a forum for books aimed at systemati cally interfacing the two disciplines. Toward this end, Volume 1 pre sented a collection of original writings focused on the criminal justice system that grew out of a conference held at the University of Nebraska at Lincoln. Because that volume was based on conference proceedings, however, an attempt was not made to provide thorough coverage of all law-psychology issues in the criminal justice system; rather, it highlight ed a select few issues that were currently being investigated by some of the outstanding people in the field. This volume differs substantially from the first in that it attempts to bring together those psycholegal scholars who are doing the major re search on the trial process today and provides broad coverage of critical research on the trial. Thus, the chapters not only provide an extensive review of existing literature in this field but also present new contribu tions by these scholars.

Advances in Collective Decision Making

Author : Sascha Kurz,Nicola Maaser,Alexander Mayer
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 409 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2023-05-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783031216961

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Advances in Collective Decision Making by Sascha Kurz,Nicola Maaser,Alexander Mayer Pdf

This book presents research on recent developments in collective decision-making. With contributions from leading scholars from a variety of disciplines, it provides an up-to-date overview of applications in social choice theory, welfare economics, and industrial organization. The contributions address, amongst others, topics such as measuring power, the manipulability of collective decisions, and experimental approaches. Applications range from analysis of the complicated institutional rules of the European Union to responsibility-based allocation of cartel damages or the design of webpage rankings. With its interdisciplinary focus, the book seeks to bridge the gap between different disciplinary approaches by pointing to open questions that can only be resolved through collaborative efforts.

Rational Choice, Collective Decisions, and Social Welfare

Author : Kotaro Suzumura
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 298 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 1983
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0521122554

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Rational Choice, Collective Decisions, and Social Welfare by Kotaro Suzumura Pdf

An examination of the phenomenon of social cooperation failure, even amongst a group of rational individuals.

The Theory of Committees and Elections by Duncan Black and Committee Decisions with Complementary Valuation by Duncan Black and R.A. Newing

Author : Iain S. McLean,Alistair McMillan,Burt L. Monroe
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 492 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2013-03-09
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789401148603

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The Theory of Committees and Elections by Duncan Black and Committee Decisions with Complementary Valuation by Duncan Black and R.A. Newing by Iain S. McLean,Alistair McMillan,Burt L. Monroe Pdf

R. H. Coase Duncan Black was a close and dear friend. A man of great simplicity, un worldly, modest, diffident, with no pretensions, he was devoted to scholarship. In his single-minded search for the truth, he is an example to us all. Black's first degree at the University of Glasgow was in mathematics and physics. Mathematics as taught at Glasgow seems to have been designed for engineers and did not excite him and he switched to economics, which he found more congenial. But it was not in a lecture in economics but in one on politics that he found his star. One lecturer, A. K. White, discussed the possibility of constructing a pure science of politics. This question caught his imagination, perhaps because of his earlier training in physics, and it came to absorb his thoughts for the rest of his life. But almost certainly nothing would have come of it were it not for his appointment to the newly formed Dundee School of Economics where the rest of the. teaching staff came from the London School of Economics. At Glasgow, economics, as in the time of Adam Smith, was linked with moral philosophy. At Dundee, Black was introduced to the analytical x The Theory o/Committees and Elections approach dominant at the London School of Economics. This gave him the approach he used in his attempt to construct a pure science of politics.

Party Identification and Beyond

Author : Ian Budge,Ivor Crewe,Dennis Farlie
Publisher : ECPR Press
Page : 426 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2010-02-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780955820342

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Party Identification and Beyond by Ian Budge,Ivor Crewe,Dennis Farlie Pdf

First published in 1976, this classic volume of original essays provides a unique and comprehensive review of the approaches and assumptions that dominate the field of election studies and voting behaviour. Critical reviews of theory and established research are combined with innovative and original studies of a variety of European countries, as well as North America. The volume presents valuable comparative data and methodological insights, including statistical analyses of voting data and critical accounts of major approaches to the representation of voting and party competition. These include party identification (the socio-psychological approach); dimensional analysis (the production of party spaces based on social and political cleavages); and rational choice analysis (the interaction between voters and parties within a policy space). This edition includes a new introduction by Ian Budge.

Multi-Party Dispute Resolution, Democracy and Decision-Making

Author : Carrie Menkel-Meadow
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 602 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2017-05-15
Category : Law
ISBN : 9781351916523

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Multi-Party Dispute Resolution, Democracy and Decision-Making by Carrie Menkel-Meadow Pdf

The articles selected for this volume draw on game theory, political science, psychology, sociology and anthropology to consider how the process of dispute resolution is altered, challenged and made more complex by the presence of multiple parties and/or multiple issues. The volume explores issues of coalition formation, defection, collaboration, commitments, voting practices, and joint decision making in settings of increasing human complexity. Also included are examples of concrete uses of deliberative democracy processes taken from new applications of complex dispute resolution theory and practice. The selected essays represent the latest theoretical advances and challenges in the field and demonstrate attempts to use dispute resolution theory in a wide variety of settings such as political decision making and policy formation; regulatory matters; environmental disputes; healthcare; community disputes; constitutional formation; and in many other controversial issues in the polity.