Public Debt Vulnerabilities In Low Income Countries The Evolving Landscape

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Public Debt Vulnerabilities in Low-Income Countries - The Evolving Landscape

International Monetary Fund
Public Debt Vulnerabilities in Low Income Countries The Evolving Landscape Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 60 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2015-09-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498344043

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Public Debt Vulnerabilities in Low-Income Countries - The Evolving Landscape by International Monetary Fund Pdf

This is the first joint IMF/World Bank report on public debt vulnerabilities in low income countries (LICs). It examines debt-related developments and their underlying causes since the onset of the global financial crisis. The findings will inform the upcoming review of the IMF/WB debt sustainability framework for LICs. Over this period, improved macroeconomic performance in LICs, combined with HIPC/MDRI debt relief and high demand for commodities, contributed to improved LIC creditworthiness. At the same time, new borrowing opportunities emerged as a result of the accommodative liquidity conditions in international capital markets, the deepening of domestic financial markets for some LICs, and the growing lending activities of non-Paris Club countries. These new financing possibilities helped mitigate the decline in Paris Club lending to LICs and have been associated with a shift toward greater reliance on non-concessional credit. The changing financing landscape has been most significant for frontier LICs.

The Evolution of Public Debt Vulnerabilities In Lower Income Economies

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,World Bank
The Evolution of Public Debt Vulnerabilities In Lower Income Economies Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,World Bank
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2020-02-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513529110

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The Evolution of Public Debt Vulnerabilities In Lower Income Economies by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,World Bank Pdf

Public debt in lower-income economies (LIEs) has risen in recent years, with half of the countries covered in this report now assessed to be at high risk of or already in debt distress.

Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Guidance Note on the Bank Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 72 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2018-02-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498307260

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Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf

Low-income countries (LICs) face significant challenges in meeting their Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while at the same time ensuring that their external debt remains sustainable. In April 2005, the Executive Boards of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Development Association (IDA) approved the introduction of the Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF), a tool developed jointly by IMF and World Bank staff to conduct public and external debt sustainability analysis in low-income countries. The DSF has since been serving to help guide the borrowing decisions of LICs, provide guidance for creditors’ lending and grant allocation decisions, and improve World Bank and IMF assessments and policy advice. The latest review of the framework was approved by the Executive Boards in September 2017. This introduced reforms to ensure that the DSF remains appropriate for the rapidly changing financing landscape facing LICs and to further improve insights into debt vulnerabilities. This note provides operational and technical guidance on the implementation of the reformed framework.

Are We Heading for Another Debt Crisis in Low-Income Countries? Debt Vulnerabilities: Today Vs the Pre-HIPC Era

Chuku Chuku,Prateek Samal,Joyce Saito,Ms. Dalia S Hakura,Mr. Marcos d Chamon,Mr. Martin D. Cerisola,Guillaume Chabert,Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Are We Heading for Another Debt Crisis in Low Income Countries Debt Vulnerabilities Today Vs the Pre HIPC Era Book PDF

Author : Chuku Chuku,Prateek Samal,Joyce Saito,Ms. Dalia S Hakura,Mr. Marcos d Chamon,Mr. Martin D. Cerisola,Guillaume Chabert,Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2023-04-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400236709

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Are We Heading for Another Debt Crisis in Low-Income Countries? Debt Vulnerabilities: Today Vs the Pre-HIPC Era by Chuku Chuku,Prateek Samal,Joyce Saito,Ms. Dalia S Hakura,Mr. Marcos d Chamon,Mr. Martin D. Cerisola,Guillaume Chabert,Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer Pdf

There are growing concerns that 25 years after the launch of the HIPC debt relief initiative, many low-income countries are again facing high debt vulnerabilities. This paper compares debt vulnerabilities in LICs today versus those on the eve of the HIPC Initiative and examines challenges to a similarly designed debt-relief framework. While solvency and liquidity indicators in most LICs have steadily worsened in recent years, they remain substantially better on average than they were on the eve of HIPC in the mid-1990s. This said, if current trends persist, debt vulnerabilities in LICs could (but would not necessarily) reach levels comparable to the pre-HIPC era over the medium- to long-term. Today’s more complex creditor landscape makes coordination challenging. It is therefore essential for countries to reduce today’s debt burdens promptly through economic reform, lowering the cost of financing, and debt restructuring on a case-by-case basis. The international community should also step up efforts to improve debt restructuring processes, including the G20 Common Framework, to ensure that debt relief is delivered in a timely and efficient manner where it is needed.

Reform of the Policy on Public Debt Limits in IMF-Supported Programs

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Reform of the Policy on Public Debt Limits in IMF Supported Programs Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 67 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2020-11-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513560885

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Reform of the Policy on Public Debt Limits in IMF-Supported Programs by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf

This paper evaluates the IMF’s policy on the use of quantitative limits on public debt in IMF-supported programs (the “debt limits policy”) and proposes a number of modifications. The review is taking place at a time when many countries are experiencing heightened debt vulnerabilities or actual debt distress, aggravated by the COVID-19 shock, and occurring against the backdrop of a changing credit landscape in which concessional finance is scarcer relative to countries’ investment needs.

Evolution of Debt Sustainability Analysis in Low-Income Countries

Mr.Benedicte Baduel,Mr.Robert T. Price
Evolution of Debt Sustainability Analysis in Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Mr.Benedicte Baduel,Mr.Robert T. Price
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2012-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475505153

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Evolution of Debt Sustainability Analysis in Low-Income Countries by Mr.Benedicte Baduel,Mr.Robert T. Price Pdf

The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) for low-income countries (LICs) is a standardized analytical tool to monitor debt sustainability. This paper uses DSAs from three periods around the time of the global economic crisis to analyze the projected trajectories of debt ratios for a sample of LICs. The aggregate data suggest that LIC vulnerabilities improved on the whole during the period prior to the crisis, and that the crisis had a strong short-run impact on key ratios of debt (debt-to-GDP, -exports, and -fiscal revenues) and debt service (debt service-to-exports, and -revenues). Although projected debt burdens increased following the crisis, debt indicators tend to return to their pre-crisis levels over the projection horizon. This may reflect a strong and durable policy response by LICs towards the crisis, or also reflect specific assumptions on the long-run growth dividends of public external debt.

Changing Patterns in Low-Income Country Financing and Implications for Fund Policies on External Financing and Debt

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Changing Patterns in Low Income Country Financing and Implications for Fund Policies on External Financing and Debt Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2009-02-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498336253

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Changing Patterns in Low-Income Country Financing and Implications for Fund Policies on External Financing and Debt by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf

Low-income countries (LICs) face significant challenges in meeting their development objectives while maintaining a sustainable debt position. The international community’s main answer to this dilemma has been to promote recourse to concessional external resources. The Fund’s recommendations to LICs conform to this preference: the practice in Fund-supported programs in LICs has generally been to set zero limits on nonconcessional external borrowing while not restricting concessional financing, although flexibility has been applied on a case-by-case basis to allow some nonconcessional borrowing when warranted.

Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance

Mr.Henry Mooney,Constance de Soyres
Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low Income Countries An Assessment of Projection Performance Book PDF

Author : Mr.Henry Mooney,Constance de Soyres
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2017-10-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484324790

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Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance by Mr.Henry Mooney,Constance de Soyres Pdf

This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism for public and external debt projections, which was most appreciable for LICs with the highest incomes, prospects for market access, and at ‘moderate’ risk of debt distress. This was often driven by overly-ambitious fiscal and/or growth forecasts, and projected ‘residuals’. When we control for unanticipated shocks, we find that biases remain evident, driven in part by optimism regarding government fiscal reaction functions and expected growth dividends from investment.

Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low Income Developing Countries Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 76 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2018-03-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498307291

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Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf

"This paper is the fourth in a series that examines macroeconomic developments and prospects in Low Income Developing Countries (LIDCs). LIDCs are Fund member countries where gross national income (GNI) per capita lies below a threshold level and where external financial linkages and socioeconomic indicators have not lifted them into emerging market status. There are 59 countries in the LIDC grouping, accounting for about one-fifth of the world’s population and 4 percent of global output. The paper examines macroeconomic trends across LIDCs in recent years, contrasting key features of the current situation with the period prior to the 2014 decline in commodity prices. Particular attention is given to the evolution of fiscal positions and public debt levels, including detailed analysis of the drivers of debt accumulation and the current severity of debt vulnerabilities. The analysis is grounded in, and draws on, the analysis and databases used to compile the World Economic Outlook: this report drills down into the WEO database to look in detail at the experience of LIDCs."

Review of the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,World Bank
Review of the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,World Bank
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 111 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2017-02-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498346351

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Review of the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,World Bank Pdf

The Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-income Countries (LIC DSF) has been the cornerstone of assessments of risks to debt sustainability in LICs. The framework classifies countries based on their assessed debt-carrying capacity, estimates threshold levels for selected debt burden indicators, evaluates baseline projections and stress test scenarios relative to these thresholds, and then combines indicative rules and staff judgment to assign risk ratings of external debt distress. The framework has demonstrated its operational value since the last review was conducted in 2012, but there are areas where new features can be introduced to enhance its performance in assessing risks. Against the backdrop of the evolving nature of risks facing LICs, both staff analysis and stakeholder feedback suggest gaps in the framework to be addressed. Complexity and lack of transparency have also been highlighted as causes for concern. This paper proposes a set of reforms to enhance the value of the LIC DSF for all users. In developing these reforms, staff has been guided by two over-arching principles: a) the core architecture of the DSF—model-based results complemented by judgment—remains appropriate; and b) reforms should ensure that the DSF maintains an appropriate balance by providing countries with early warnings of potential debt distress without unnecessarily constraining their borrowing for development.

Non-Resident Holdings of Domestic Debt in Nigeria: Internal or External Driven?

Amr Hosny
Non Resident Holdings of Domestic Debt in Nigeria Internal or External Driven Book PDF

Author : Amr Hosny
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 21 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2020-05-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513545370

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Non-Resident Holdings of Domestic Debt in Nigeria: Internal or External Driven? by Amr Hosny Pdf

Foreign holdings of domestic debt instruments in Nigeria have been increasing. Using data over 2007M1-2019M1, we show that, on average, global factors (global interest rates, oil prices) seem to carry more weight than domestic factors (treasury bills rate and domestic risk) in foreign portfolio invetsors’ decisions in Nigeria. Specifically, we show that foreign participation is, in the long run, positively correlated with oil prices and profitable rates of return on local-currency instruments, but negatively correlated with exchange rate depreciation pressures. In the short run, oil prices, opportunity cost of funds and perception of Nigeria-specific risks also play a role. These results highlight the volatile short-term nature of such flows and call for a package of policy reforms to attract longer term direct investments.

Economic Development in Africa Report 2016

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
Economic Development in Africa Report 2016 Book PDF

Author : United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
Publisher : United Nations
Page : 166 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2016-07-21
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789210580564

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Economic Development in Africa Report 2016 by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Pdf

Africa has major development aspirations in the broader context of a global and continental economic development agenda. This calls for substantial financial resources at a time when the global development finance landscape is changing, from a model centred on official development assistance and the coverage of remaining financing needs through external debt, to a framework with greater emphasis on the mobilization of domestic resources. The Economic Development in Africa Report 2016 examines some of the key policy issues that underlie Africa’s domestic and external debt, and provides policy guidance on the delicate balance required between financing development alternatives and overall debt sustainability. This report analyses Africa’s international debt exposure and how domestic debt is increasingly playing a role in some African countries as a development finance option, and also examines complementary financing options and how they relate to debt.

Global Debt Dynamics

Andreas Antoniades,Ugo Panizza
Global Debt Dynamics Book PDF

Author : Andreas Antoniades,Ugo Panizza
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 209 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2020-05-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780429619151

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Global Debt Dynamics by Andreas Antoniades,Ugo Panizza Pdf

This comprehensive volume explores debt dynamics and the intensification of debt crises across the globe, bringing together several recent but underexplored debt crises from different regional and socioeconomic contexts. Using detailed case studies, the authors recast the perils of debt-based growth in the context of regional/global imbalances; not to advocate ‘one-size-fits-all’ reforms, but to point to the need for accommodating diversity. They examine how current economic developments put developing and developed countries under new strain. They also interrogate the opportunities and challenges generated for developing countries by the new development finance landscape and newly (re)emerged geopolitical tensions. The book also explores the inability of existing dominant structures and thinking to effectively manage the multiple facets of the ongoing global debt crisis, pointing to responses that exacerbate rather than address unsustainable debt dynamics. The authors illustrate the adverse effects of ad hoc crisis management mechanisms which are not fit for purpose, and indicate the negative consequences that existing policies may have for democracy. They then put forward a framework for alternative thinking as well as concrete ideas on what needs to be done, in response. This book will be of great interest to students, scholars and professionals in the field of global debt studies. It was originally published as a special issue of the online journal Third World Thematics.

Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries - 2015

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low Income Developing Countries 2015 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 57 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2015-11-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498343978

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Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries - 2015 by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf

This paper examines macroeconomic developments and prospects in low-income developing countries (LIDCs) against the back-drop of a sharp fall in international commodity prices. The focus here—by contrast with IMF (2014a)—is on recent developments and the near-term outlook, recognizing that the new price environment is likely to remain in place for several years to come. The paper also includes a section examining the experience of LIDCs with capital inflows over the past decade.

Can They Do It All? Fiscal Space in Low-Income Countries

Ms.Anja Baum,Andrew Hodge,Ms.Aiko Mineshima,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Rene Tapsoba
Can They Do It All Fiscal Space in Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Ms.Anja Baum,Andrew Hodge,Ms.Aiko Mineshima,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Rene Tapsoba
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2017-05-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475599046

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Can They Do It All? Fiscal Space in Low-Income Countries by Ms.Anja Baum,Andrew Hodge,Ms.Aiko Mineshima,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Rene Tapsoba Pdf

According to U.N. estimates, low-income countries will have to increase their annual public spending by up to 30 percent of GDP to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), raising the question of whether they can do it all. This paper develops a new metric of fiscal space in low-income countries that accounts for macroeconomic uncertainty, allowing us to assess whether those spending needs can be accommodated. Illustrative simulations based on this methodology imply that, even under benign conditions, the fiscal space available in lowincome countries is likely insufficient to undertake the spending needed to achieve the SDGs. Improving public investment efficiency and domestic revenue mobilization can somewhat narrow the gap but it will require major efforts relative to recent trends.