Rational Choice Using Imprecise Probabilities And Utilities

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Rational Choice Using Imprecise Probabilities and Utilities

Paul Weirich
Rational Choice Using Imprecise Probabilities and Utilities Book PDF

Author : Paul Weirich
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 139 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2021-02-25
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781108604789

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Rational Choice Using Imprecise Probabilities and Utilities by Paul Weirich Pdf

An agent often does not have precise probabilities or utilities to guide resolution of a decision problem. I advance a principle of rationality for making decisions in such cases. To begin, I represent the doxastic and conative state of an agent with a set of pairs of a probability assignment and a utility assignment. Then I support a decision principle that allows any act that maximizes expected utility according to some pair of assignments in the set. Assuming that computation of an option's expected utility uses comprehensive possible outcomes that include the option's risk, no consideration supports a stricter requirement.

Decision, Probability, and Utility

Peter Gärdenfors,Nils-Eric Sahlin
Decision Probability and Utility Book PDF

Author : Peter Gärdenfors,Nils-Eric Sahlin
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 449 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 1988
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 0521333911

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Decision, Probability, and Utility by Peter Gärdenfors,Nils-Eric Sahlin Pdf

Decision theory and the theory of rational choice have recently been the subjects of considerable research by philosophers and economists. However, no adequate anthology exists which can be used to introduce students to the field. This volume is designed to meet that need. The essays included are organized into five parts covering the foundations of decision theory, the conceptualization of probability and utility, pholosophical difficulties with the rules of rationality and with the assessment of probability, and causal decision theory. The editors provide an extensive introduction to the field and introductions to each part.

Taking Chances

Jordan Howard Sobel
Taking Chances Book PDF

Author : Jordan Howard Sobel
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 396 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 1994-04-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0521416353

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Taking Chances by Jordan Howard Sobel Pdf

J. Howard Sobel has long been recognized as an important figure in philosophical discussions of rational decision. He has done much to help formulate the concept of causal decision theory. In this volume of essays Sobel explores the Bayesian idea that rational actions maximize expected values, where an action's expected value is a weighted average of its agent's values for its possible total outcomes. Newcomb's Problem and The Prisoner's Dilemma are discussed, and Allais-type puzzles are viewed from the perspective of causal world Bayesianism. The author establishes principles for distinguishing options in decision problems, and studies ways in which perfectly rational causal maximizers can be capable of resolute choices. Sobel also views critically Gauthier's revisionist ideas about maximizing rationality. This collection will be a desideratum for anyone working in the field of rational choice theory, whether in philosophy, economics, political science, psychology or statistics. Howard Sobel's work in decision theory is certainly among the most important, interesting and challenging that is being done by philosophers.

The Measurement of Subjective Probability

Edward J. R. Elliott
The Measurement of Subjective Probability Book PDF

Author : Edward J. R. Elliott
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 105 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2024-05-02
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9781009401302

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The Measurement of Subjective Probability by Edward J. R. Elliott Pdf

Beliefs come in degrees, and we often represent those degrees with numbers. We might say, for example, that we are 90% confident in the truth of some scientific hypothesis, or only 30% confident in the success of some risky endeavour. But what do these numbers mean? What, in other words, is the underlying psychological reality to which the numbers correspond? And what constitutes a meaningful difference between numerically distinct representations of belief? In this Element, we discuss the main approaches to the measurement of belief. These fall into two broad categories-epistemic and decision-theoretic-with divergent foundations in the theory of measurement. Epistemic approaches explain the measurement of belief by appeal to relations between belief states themselves, whereas decision-theoretic approaches appeal to relations between beliefs and desires in the production of choice and preferences.

Phylogenetic Trees and Molecular Evolution

David R. Bickel
Phylogenetic Trees and Molecular Evolution Book PDF

Author : David R. Bickel
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 112 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2022-09-29
Category : Science
ISBN : 9783031119583

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Phylogenetic Trees and Molecular Evolution by David R. Bickel Pdf

This book serves as a brief introduction to phylogenetic trees and molecular evolution for biologists and biology students. It does so by presenting the main concepts in a variety of ways: first visually, then in a history, next in a dice game, and finally in simple equations. The content is primarily designed to introduce upper-level undergraduate and graduate students of biology to phylogenetic tree reconstruction and the underlying models of molecular evolution. A unique feature also of interest to experienced researchers is the emphasis on simple ways to quantify the uncertainty in the results more fully than is possible with standard methods.

Realistic Decision Theory

Paul Weirich
Realistic Decision Theory Book PDF

Author : Paul Weirich
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 278 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2004-09-16
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9780190291112

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Realistic Decision Theory by Paul Weirich Pdf

Within traditional decision theory, common decision principles -- e.g. the principle to maximize utility -- generally invoke idealization; they govern ideal agents in ideal circumstances. In Realistic Decision Theory, Paul Weirch adds practicality to decision theory by formulating principles applying to nonideal agents in nonideal circumstances, such as real people coping with complex decisions. Bridging the gap between normative demands and psychological resources, Realistic Decision Theory is essential reading for theorists seeking precise normative decision principles that acknowledge the limits and difficulties of human decision-making.

Preference Change

David Strohmaier,Michael Messerli
Preference Change Book PDF

Author : David Strohmaier,Michael Messerli
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 166 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2024-01-31
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9781009192132

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Preference Change by David Strohmaier,Michael Messerli Pdf

For most of its history, decision theory has investigated the rational choices of humans under the assumption of static preferences. Human preferences, however, change. In recent years, decision theory has increasingly acknowledged the reality of preference change throughout life. This Element provides an accessible introduction and new contributions to the debates on preference change. It is divided into three chapters. In the first chapter, the authors discuss what preference change is and whether we can integrate it into decision theory. In the second chapter, they present models of preference change, including a novel proposal of their own. In the third and final chapter, they discuss how we can rationally choose a course of action when our preferences might change. Both the transformative experience literature and recent work on choosing for changing selves are discussed.

Rational Responses to Risks

Paul Weirich
Rational Responses to Risks Book PDF

Author : Paul Weirich
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2020-07-10
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9780190089429

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Rational Responses to Risks by Paul Weirich Pdf

Good decisions account for risks. For example, the risk of an accident while driving in the rain makes a reasonable driver decide to slow down. While risk is a large topic in theoretical disciplines such as economics and psychology, as well as in practical disciplines such as medicine and finance, philosophy has a unique contribution to make in developing a normative theory of risk that states what risk is, and to what extent our responses to it are rational. Weirich here develops a philosophical theory of the rationality of responses to risk. He first distinguishes two types of risk: first, a chance of a bad event, and second, an act's risk in relation to its possible outcomes. He argues that this distinction has normative significance in the sense that one's attitudes towards these types of risks - and how one acts on them - are governed by different general principles of rationality. Consequently, a comprehensive account of risk must not only characterize rational responses to risk but also explain why these responses are rational. Weirich explains how, for a rational ideal agent, the expected utilities of the acts available in a decision problem explain the agent's preferences among the acts. As a result, maximizing expected utility is just following preferences among the acts. His view takes an act's expected utility, not just as a feature of a representation of preferences among acts, but also as a factor in the explanation of preferences among acts. The book's precise formulation of general standards of rationality for attitudes and for acts, and its rigorous argumentation for these standards, make it philosophical; but while mainly of interest to philosophers, its broader arguments will contribute to the conceptual foundations of studies of risk in all disciplines that study it.

Money-Pump Arguments

Johan E. Gustafsson
Money Pump Arguments Book PDF

Author : Johan E. Gustafsson
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 116 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2022-10-13
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781108604963

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Money-Pump Arguments by Johan E. Gustafsson Pdf

Suppose that you prefer A to B, B to C, and C to A. Your preferences violate Expected Utility Theory by being cyclic. Money-pump arguments offer a way to show that such violations are irrational. Suppose that you start with A. Then you should be willing to trade A for C and then C for B. But then, once you have B, you are offered a trade back to A for a small cost. Since you prefer A to B, you pay the small sum to trade from B to A. But now you have been turned into a money pump. You are back to the alternative you started with but with less money. This Element shows how each of the axioms of Expected Utility Theory can be defended by money-pump arguments of this kind. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

Political Party Financing and Electoral Politics in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic

Babayo Sule
Political Party Financing and Electoral Politics in Nigeria s Fourth Republic Book PDF

Author : Babayo Sule
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Page : 291 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2023-03-17
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781666919226

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Political Party Financing and Electoral Politics in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic by Babayo Sule Pdf

In Political Party Financing and Electoral Politics in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic, Babayo Sule provides a detailed analysis of the process of political party financing in Nigeria from 1999 to the present. Sule links the party financing process with the electoral process and explores issues of democratic accountability, transparency, and corruption in Nigeria under democratic rule. Issues of excessive spending, violation of legal procedures for party financing and monitoring of parties’ activities, particularly, finances are explored. The book presents an analytical discourse on elections and processes that influence an election in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic in which party financing and money politics are instrumental. This book observes how political corruption gains root in the process of party financing and builds a theory linking party financing, electoral politics, and democratic accountability. This book provides practical policy implications for strengthening Nigeria’s electoral process and transparency in its democracy.

A Plea for Plausibility

John R. Welch
A Plea for Plausibility Book PDF

Author : John R. Welch
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 247 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2023-03-17
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9781000852769

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A Plea for Plausibility by John R. Welch Pdf

This book develops an original theory of decision-making based on the concept of plausibility. The author advocates plausible reasoning as a general philosophical method and demonstrates how it can be applied to problems in argumentation theory, scientific theory choice, risk management, ethics, law, economics, and epistemology. Human decisions are conditioned by formidable uncertainty. The standard resource for dealing rationally with uncertainty is the mathematical concept of probability. The probability calculus is well-known, but since the numerical demands for applying it cannot usually be met, it is not widely applicable. By contrast, the concept of plausibility is widely applicable, but it is little known. This book relies on a generalized concept of plausibility whose strength is its adaptability. The adaptability is due to a novel form of decision theory that takes plausibilities as inputs. This form of decision theory remains applicable to decisions informed by sharp probabilities and utilities, but it can also be applied to decisions that must be made without them. It can aid in the rationally critical enterprise of discriminating good arguments from bad, and this can foster philosophical progress. A Plea for Plausibility will be of interest to scholars and advanced students working in argumentation theory, philosophy of science, ethics, epistemology, economics, law, and risk management.

Realistic Decision Theory

Paul Weirich
Realistic Decision Theory Book PDF

Author : Paul Weirich
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 278 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2004-09-16
Category : Education
ISBN : 0198038232

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Realistic Decision Theory by Paul Weirich Pdf

Within traditional decision theory, common decision principles -- e.g. the principle to maximize utility -- generally invoke idealization; they govern ideal agents in ideal circumstances. In Realistic Decision Theory, Paul Weirch adds practicality to decision theory by formulating principles applying to nonideal agents in nonideal circumstances, such as real people coping with complex decisions. Bridging the gap between normative demands and psychological resources, Realistic Decision Theory is essential reading for theorists seeking precise normative decision principles that acknowledge the limits and difficulties of human decision-making.

Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems. Applications

Jesús Medina,Manuel Ojeda-Aciego,José Luis Verdegay,Irina Perfilieva,Bernadette Bouchon-Meunier,Ronald R. Yager
Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge Based Systems Applications Book PDF

Author : Jesús Medina,Manuel Ojeda-Aciego,José Luis Verdegay,Irina Perfilieva,Bernadette Bouchon-Meunier,Ronald R. Yager
Publisher : Springer
Page : 773 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2018-05-29
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783319914794

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Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems. Applications by Jesús Medina,Manuel Ojeda-Aciego,José Luis Verdegay,Irina Perfilieva,Bernadette Bouchon-Meunier,Ronald R. Yager Pdf

This three volume set (CCIS 853-855) constitutes the proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems, IPMU 2017, held in Cádiz, Spain, in June 2018. The 193 revised full papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 383 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on advances on explainable artificial intelligence; aggregation operators, fuzzy metrics and applications; belief function theory and its applications; current techniques to model, process and describe time series; discrete models and computational intelligence; formal concept analysis and uncertainty; fuzzy implication functions; fuzzy logic and artificial intelligence problems; fuzzy mathematical analysis and applications; fuzzy methods in data mining and knowledge discovery; fuzzy transforms: theory and applications to data analysis and image processing; imprecise probabilities: foundations and applications; mathematical fuzzy logic, mathematical morphology; measures of comparison and entropies for fuzzy sets and their extensions; new trends in data aggregation; pre-aggregation functions and generalized forms of monotonicity; rough and fuzzy similarity modelling tools; soft computing for decision making in uncertainty; soft computing in information retrieval and sentiment analysis; tri-partitions and uncertainty; decision making modeling and applications; logical methods in mining knowledge from big data; metaheuristics and machine learning; optimization models for modern analytics; uncertainty in medicine; uncertainty in Video/Image Processing (UVIP).

Thinking about Acting

John L. Pollock
Thinking about Acting Book PDF

Author : John L. Pollock
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 292 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2006-07-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0195304810

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Thinking about Acting by John L. Pollock Pdf

This work aims to construct a theory of rational decision making for real, resource-bounded, agents. Such decision making must be based on objective probabilities rather than subjective probabilities, and can't be done by choosing single action with maxmimal expected values.

The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory

James M. Joyce
The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory Book PDF

Author : James M. Joyce
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 281 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 1999-04-13
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781139471381

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The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory by James M. Joyce Pdf

This book defends the view that any adequate account of rational decision making must take a decision maker's beliefs about causal relations into account. The early chapters of the book introduce the non-specialist to the rudiments of expected utility theory. The major technical advance offered by the book is a 'representation theorem' that shows that both causal decision theory and its main rival, Richard Jeffrey's logic of decision, are both instances of a more general conditional decision theory. The book solves a long-standing problem for Jeffrey's theory by showing for the first time how to obtain a unique utility and probability representation for preferences and judgements of comparative likelihood. The book also contains a major new discussion of what it means to suppose that some event occurs or that some proposition is true. The most complete and robust defence of causal decision theory available.