Decision Probability And Utility

Author : Peter Gärdenfors,Nils-Eric Sahlin
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 464 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 1988-04-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0521336589

Get Book

Decision, Probability and Utility by Peter Gärdenfors,Nils-Eric Sahlin Pdf

Decision theory and the theory of rational choice have recently been the subjects of considerable research by philosophers and economists. However, no adequate anthology exists which can be used to introduce students to the field. This volume is designed to meet that need. The essays included are organized into five parts covering the foundations of decision theory, the conceptualization of probability and utility, pholosophical difficulties with the rules of rationality and with the assessment of probability, and causal decision theory. The editors provide an extensive introduction to the field and introductions to each part.

Author : Silvia Bacci,Bruno Chiandotto
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 217 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2019-07-11
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781351621380

Get Book

Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory by Silvia Bacci,Bruno Chiandotto Pdf

Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory: Utility Theory and Causal Analysis provides the theoretical background to approach decision theory from a statistical perspective. It covers both traditional approaches, in terms of value theory and expected utility theory, and recent developments, in terms of causal inference. The book is specifically designed to appeal to students and researchers that intend to acquire a knowledge of statistical science based on decision theory. Features Covers approaches for making decisions under certainty, risk, and uncertainty Illustrates expected utility theory and its extensions Describes approaches to elicit the utility function Reviews classical and Bayesian approaches to statistical inference based on decision theory Discusses the role of causal analysis in statistical decision theory

Author : D. Wendt,C.A. Vlek
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 408 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789401018340

Get Book

Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making by D. Wendt,C.A. Vlek Pdf

Human decision making involves problems which are being studied with increasing interest and sophistication. They range from controversial political decisions via individual consumer decisions to such simple tasks as signal discriminations. Although it would seem that decisions have to do with choices among available actions of any kind, there is general agreement that decision making research should pertain to choice prob lems which cannot be solved without a predecisional stage of finding choice alternatives, weighing evidence, and judging values. The ultimate objective of scientific research on decision making is two-fold: (a) to develop a theoretically sound technology for the optimal solution of decision problems, and (b) to formulate a descriptive theory of human decision making. The latter may, in tum, protect decision makers from being caught in the traps of their own limitations and biases. Recently, in decision making research the strong emphasis on well defined laboratory tasks is decreasing in favour of more realistic studies in various practical settings. This may well have been caused by a growing awareness of the fact that decision-behaviour is strongly determined by situational factors, which makes it necessary to look into processes of interaction between the decision maker and the relevant task environ ment. Almost inevitably there is a parallel shift of interest towards problems of utility measurement and the evaluation of consequences.

Author : Patrick Suppes
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 481 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2013-03-09
Category : Science
ISBN : 9789401731737

Get Book

Studies in the Methodology and Foundations of Science by Patrick Suppes Pdf

The twenty-three papers collected in tbis volume represent an important part of my published work up to the date of this volume. I have not arranged the paper chronologically, but under four main headings. Part I contains five papers on methodology concerned with models and measurement in the sciences. This part also contains the first paper I published, 'A Set of Independent Axioms for Extensive Quantities', in Portugaliae Mathematica in 1951. Part 11 also is concerned with methodology and ineludes six papers on probability and utility. It is not always easy to separate papers on probability and utility from papers on measurement, because of the elose connection between the two subjects, but Artieles 6 and 8, even though they have elose relations to measurement, seem more properly to belong in Part 11, because they are concerned with substantive questions about probability and utility. The last two parts are concerned with the foundations of physics and the foundations of psychology. I have used the term foundations rather than philosophy, because the papers are mainly concerned with specific axiomatic formulations for particular parts of physics or of psychology, and it seems to me that the termfoundations more appropriately describes such constructive axiomatic ventures. Part 111 contains four papers on the foundations of physics. The first paper deals with foundations of special relativity and the last three with the role ofprobability in quantum mechanics.

Author : Paul Weirich
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2001-08-27
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781139430418

Get Book

Decision Space by Paul Weirich Pdf

In Decision Space: Multidimensional Utility Analysis, first published in 2001, Paul Weirich increases the power and versatility of utility analysis and in the process advances decision theory. Combining traditional and novel methods of option evaluation into one systematic method of analysis, multidimensional utility analysis is a valuable tool. It provides formulations of important decision principles, such as the principle to maximize expected utility; enriches decision theory in solving recalcitrant decision problems; and provides in particular for the cases in which an expert must make a decision for a group of people. The multiple dimensions of this analysis create a decision space broad enough to accommodate all factors affecting an option's utility. The book will be of interest to advanced students and professionals working in the subject of decision theory, as well as to economists and other social scientists.

Author : James M. Joyce
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 281 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 1999-04-13
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781139471381

Get Book

The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory by James M. Joyce Pdf

This book defends the view that any adequate account of rational decision making must take a decision maker's beliefs about causal relations into account. The early chapters of the book introduce the non-specialist to the rudiments of expected utility theory. The major technical advance offered by the book is a 'representation theorem' that shows that both causal decision theory and its main rival, Richard Jeffrey's logic of decision, are both instances of a more general conditional decision theory. The book solves a long-standing problem for Jeffrey's theory by showing for the first time how to obtain a unique utility and probability representation for preferences and judgements of comparative likelihood. The book also contains a major new discussion of what it means to suppose that some event occurs or that some proposition is true. The most complete and robust defence of causal decision theory available.

Author : P.J.H. Schoemaker
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2013-11-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789401750400

Get Book

Experiments on Decisions under Risk: The Expected Utility Hypothesis by P.J.H. Schoemaker Pdf

In this valuable book, Paul Schoemaker summarizes recent experimental and field research that he and others have undertaken regarding the descrip tive validity of expected utility theory as a model of choice under uncer tainty. His principal message is that this paradigm is too narrow in its con ception and misses some of the important elements of a descriptive model of individual choice. In particular, Schoemaker calls attention to the impor tance of individual differences, task effects, and context effects as they influence behavior. The expected utility hypothesis has come under scrutiny in recent years from a number of different quarters. This book brings together these many studies and relates them to the large body of literature on individual de cision making under risk. Although this paradigm may be appropriate for describing behavior under many conditions of uncertainty, Schoemaker presents convincing evidence that it does not do well with respect to protec tion against low-probability events. For example, he shows that the insur ance purchase decision is influenced by the way information is presented to the client, as well as by the statistical knowledge of the respondents.

Author : John Eatwell,Murray Milgate,Peter Newman
Publisher : Springer
Page : 330 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 1990-02-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781349205684

Get Book

Utility and Probability by John Eatwell,Murray Milgate,Peter Newman Pdf

This is an excerpt from the 4-volume dictionary of economics, a reference book which aims to define the subject of economics today. 1300 subject entries in the complete work cover the broad themes of economic theory. This extract concentrates on utility and probability.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 246 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 1970
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:227594819

Get Book

UTILITY THEORY FOR DECISION MAKING. by Anonim Pdf

The book presents a concise yet mathematically complete treatment of modern utility theories that covers nonprobabilistic preference theory, the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected-utility theory and its extensions, and the joint axiomatization of utility and subjective probability.

Author : J. Geweke
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789401128384

Get Book

Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty by J. Geweke Pdf

As desired, the infonnation demand correspondence is single valued at equilibrium prices. Hence no planner is needed to assign infonnation allocations to individuals. Proposition 4. For any given infonnation price system p E . P (F *), almost every a E A demands a unique combined infonnation structure (although traders may be indifferent among partial infonnation sales from different information allocations, etc. ). In particular, the aggregate excess demand correspondence for net combined infonnation trades is a continuous function. Proof Uniqueness fails only if an agent can obtain the same expected utility from two or more net combined infonnation allocations. If this happens, appropriate slight perturbations of personal probability vectors destroy the equality unless the utility functions and wealth allocations were independent across states. Yet, when utilities and wealths don't depend on states in S, no infonnation to distinguish the states is desired, so that the demand for such infonnation structures must equal zero. To show the second claim, recall that if the correspondence is single valued for almost every agent, then its integral is also single valued. Finally, note that an upper hemicontinuous (by Proposition 2) correspondence which is single valued everywhere is, in fact, a continuous function. [] REFERENCES Allen, Beth (1986a). "The Demand for (Differentiated) Infonnation"; Review of Economic Studies. 53. (311-323). Allen, Beth (1986b). "General Equilibrium with Infonnation Sales"; Theory and Decision. 21. (1-33). Allen, Beth (1990). "Infonnation as an Economic Commodity"; American Economic Review. 80. (268-273).

Author : Paul Weirich
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 139 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2021-02-25
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781108604789

Get Book

Rational Choice Using Imprecise Probabilities and Utilities by Paul Weirich Pdf

An agent often does not have precise probabilities or utilities to guide resolution of a decision problem. I advance a principle of rationality for making decisions in such cases. To begin, I represent the doxastic and conative state of an agent with a set of pairs of a probability assignment and a utility assignment. Then I support a decision principle that allows any act that maximizes expected utility according to some pair of assignments in the set. Assuming that computation of an option's expected utility uses comprehensive possible outcomes that include the option's risk, no consideration supports a stricter requirement.

Author : Peter C. Fishburn
Publisher : Huntington, N.Y. : R. E. Krieger Publishing Company
Page : 234 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 1979-01-01
Category : Decision-making
ISBN : 0882757369

Get Book

Utility Theory for Decision Making by Peter C. Fishburn Pdf

Author : Michael D. Resnik
Publisher : U of Minnesota Press
Page : 244 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 1987
Category : Decision making
ISBN : 1452902283

Get Book

Choices by Michael D. Resnik Pdf

Author : Paul Weirich
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2001-08-27
Category : Science
ISBN : 0521800099

Get Book

Decision Space by Paul Weirich Pdf

In Decision Space: Multidimensional Utility Analysis, Paul Weirich increases the power and versatility of utility analysis and in the process advances decision theory. Combining traditional and novel methods of option evaluation into one systematic method, multidimensional utility analysis is a valuable new tool. The multiple dimensions of this analysis create a decision space broad enough to accommodate all factors affecting an option's utility. The book will be of interest to advanced students and professionals working in the subject of decision theory, as well as to economists and other social scientists.

Author : Luigi Luini
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 360 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781461550839

Get Book

Uncertain Decisions by Luigi Luini Pdf

Uncertain Decisions: Bridging Theory and Experiments presents advanced directions of thinking on decision theory - in particular the more recent contributions on non-expected utility theory, fuzzy decision theory and case-based theory. This work also provides theoretical insights on measures of risk aversion and on new problems for general equilibrium analysis. It analyzes how the thinking that underlies the theories described above spills over into real decisions, and how the thinking that underlies these real decisions can explain the discrepancies between theoretical approaches and actual behavior. This work elaborates on how the most recent laboratory experiments have become an important source both for evaluating the leading theory of choice and decision, and for contributing to the formation of new models regarding the subject.