Rice Productivity In Myanmar Assessment Of The 2021 Monsoon And Outlook For 2022
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Rice productivity in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2021 monsoon and outlook for 2022 by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
We analyze rice input and productivity data for the monsoon seasons of 2020 and 2021 from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS). The survey covers plots of 2,672 rice producers, spread over 259 townships in all states/regions of the country. We find that: 1. Rice productivity at the national level during the monsoon of 2021 decreased on average by 2.1 percent compared to the monsoon of 2020. Considering estimated area reductions, national paddy production decreased by 3.4 percent compared to the monsoon of 2020. 2. Some areas performed substantially worse. Rice yields were low and declined significantly in Kayah and Chin, two conflict-affected states that have shown the highest levels of food insecurity in recent assessments. 3. Prices for most inputs used in rice cultivation increased significantly between these two seasons. Prices of urea, the most important chemical fertilizer used by rice farmers, increased by 56 percent on average and mechanization costs increased by 19 percent. 4. Paddy prices at the farm increased by 8 percent, significantly less than input prices, squeezing rice farmers’ profits during the monsoon of 2021. Despite the substantial hurdles in production and marketing due to the political crisis and international market developments, the results of the Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey show the overall resilience of rice production during the monsoon of 2021. While the rice sector has been a source of stability in the country, the situation for future crop seasons is however concerning given further increases in input prices (especially fertilizer), the overall reduced profitability of rice farming, the reduced coping strategies remaining for rice farmers, and currency policy changes by the military government.
Paddy rice productivity and profitability in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2022 monsoon season by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
We analyze paddy rice productivity and profitability data for the monsoon season of 2022 from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), fielded in the beginning of 2023. The survey covered plots of 3,076 paddy rice producers, spread across all states/regions of the country. We find that: 1. Paddy rice productivity – tons of paddy produced per unit of cultivated land – at the national level decreased on average by 7.5 percent during the monsoon of 2022 compared to the monsoon of 2021. The lower productivity is mostly explained by adverse weather conditions, with negative impacts of droughts during the monsoon of 2022. Lower input use and other factors - such as increased insecurity - played an important role as well. Paddy rice yields were lowest in Kayah and Chin, two conflict-affected states. 2. Prices for most inputs used in paddy rice cultivation increased significantly between these two seasons. Prices of urea, the most important chemical fertilizer used by paddy rice farmers, increased by 87 percent on average while mechanization costs increased by 27 percent. Small decreases are noted, on average, in the use of paddy rice inputs over the last two monsoons. Despite the large price increases for chemical fertilizer, its use declined only by 8 percent compared to the previous monsoon. 3. Paddy prices at the farm level increased by 81 percent, reflecting changes in international rice prices as well as the depreciation of the MMK. Gross revenues per acre increased in nominal terms by 67 percent, mostly due to these high price increases. 4. Real profits, with nominal prices corrected by the change in the cost of an average food basket, from paddy rice farming during the monsoon of 2022 increased by 26 percent and 10 percent compared to the monsoon of 2021 and 2020 respectively. While nominal profits for paddy rice farmers increased by 95 percent over the last two seasons, price inflation has been high in the country and real profit increased much less. While the rice sector demonstrated resilience in the country, the current situation is concerning given productivity declines and high price increases, raising fears for increased food insecurity in the country. We have found improved farm profitability this year and as fertilizer prices for the coming monsoon (the monsoon of 2023) are down (due to international price decreases) and international rice prices are up (due to lower global stocks), this might further improve profitability - and incentives - for paddy production in 2023. These price developments might possibly reverse the declining productivity trend. The big unknowns that might impact paddy production in 2023 though are the weather - with less rainfall expected due to El Niño conditions in the second half of the year - and the evolution of conflict-related insecurity in the country.
Rice productivity in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2022 dry season and farmers’ expectations for the monsoon of 2022 by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
Rice is an extremely important product for farmers’ livelihoods and for food security in Myanmar. Rice is the main staple, accounting for 51 and 62 percent of urban and rural calories consumed, respectively, making it crucial for food security in the country.1 Large international changes in commodity markets and twin local crises – COVID-19 and political problems due to the military take-over – have raised doubts on the performance of the agricultural sector overall and the rice sector in particular. The assessment on farmers’ rice productivity during the dry season of 2022 presented in this research note is based on data from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) that was conducted with 678 rice producers, spread over all states/regions of the country, over the period August 2022 – September 2022. Detailed questions were asked to farmers about their background, input use and input prices, farm management practices, rice output and output prices, and natural and other shocks during the dry season of 2021 and 2022.2 This research note presents the results from that assessment.
Rice productivity and profitability in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2023 monsoon by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity Pdf
We have analyzed rice productivity and profitability data for the 2023 monsoon season from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted at the beginning of 2024. This survey encompassed plots managed by 2,840 rice producers, distributed across all states/regions of the country. Our findings reveal: 1. National rice productivity exhibited an average increase of 7 percent during the 2023 monsoon compared to the previous year, reversing the decline witnessed in the 2022 monsoon. This year's heightened productivity primarily stems from increased input usage (particularly fertilizer), greater labor inputs (with more farmers adopting transplanting), and reduced occurrences of natural shocks, notably droughts. 2. The Ayeyarwady region, the country's principal rice-producing area, experienced an 11 percent increase in rice productivity. Conversely, rice yields remained low in Kayah and Chin, two states affected by severe conflict. The highest yields, along with notable increases over the past three years, are observed in Nay Pyi Taw. 3. Significant changes in input costs for rice cultivation were observed between the two seasons: 3.1 Prices of urea, the most important chemical fertilizer used by rice farmers, decreased by 16 percent. 3.2 Mechanization costs surged by a notable 42 percent, which is concerning, especially in light of escalating rural labor scarcity. Particularly pronounced increases in mechanization costs were noted in coastal areas where fuel prices were high, or fuel was not available at all. 4. Substantial changes in technology adoption and input utilization compared to the previous monsoon were noted: 4.1 Fertilizer use on rice increased by 20 percent. 4.2 Use of self-preserved seed – instead of obtaining it from the market - increased by 6 percentage points compared to last monsoon, and 17 percentage points compared to 2020. 4.3 Transplanting increased by 5 percentage points while broadcasting declined by 7 percentage points. 4.4 The use of combine harvesters on rice was 1 percentage point lower compared to last year but was 12 percentage points lower than in 2020. 5. Thirty percent of paddy farmers reported being impacted by climatic or other production shocks during this monsoon, with floods (reported by seven percent of farmers) and droughts (reported by five percent) having significant adverse effects on yields. When affected, paddy yields decreased by 32 and 51 percent, respectively. Incidences of pests, diseases, and weeds have the highest frequency overall (13 percent). 6. Substantial changes in input usage and technology adoption were observed in paddy cultivation within coastal areas (Rakhine and Tanintharyi), seemingly linked to insecurity, mobility constraints, and fuel accessibility issues: 6.1 Fertilizer use declined by one-third. 6.2 The utilization of combine harvesters plummeted by 26 percentage points. 7. Paddy prices at the farm level surged by 64 percent, reflecting changes in international rice prices as well as the depreciation of the MMK. 8. Real – in terms of the cost of an average food basket – profits from rice farming during the monsoon of 2023 increased by 43 percent compared to the previous year. While nominal profits doubled since the previous monsoon, high price inflation tempered the increase in real profits. 9. The paddy sector has proven resilient in 2023, with improved pricing incentivizing farmers to intensify production through increased usage of chemical fertilizers and labor inputs. The outlook for paddy production in 2024 appears promising yet uncertain due to the following factors: 1. Weather conditions: Adverse weather, as witnessed during the 2023 monsoon, can significantly impact yields. Most models predict the El Niño conditions - with drier-than-average rainfall conditions - to continue weakening. 2. Evolution of insecurity: Insecurity correlates with reduced access to inputs and, when accessible, higher costs, thereby lowering profitability for farmers. 3. Labor scarcity: Labor availability is expected to become increasingly constrained in the next monsoon due to significant out-migration linked to the Military Service Law. 4. Fuel availability: A quarter of Myanmar's farmers reported limited access to fuel during the post/pre-monsoon season of 2024, complicating irrigation, and agricultural mechanization, which is typically relied upon by most rice farmers. These findings underscore three primary implications for Myanmar's rice sector: 1. Ensuring adequate access to mechanization for rice farmers: Despite benefiting from increased mechanization over the past decade, there is a concerning trend of dis-adoption in combine harvester usage, attributed to mobility issues and fuel accessibility problems. This is particularly worrisome given the anticipated rise in rural labor scarcity. 2. Emphasizing access to climate-resilient seeds: While farmers are increasingly relying on self-preserved paddy seeds, there is a pressing need for the adoption of improved, high yielding, and stress-resistant varieties. As evidenced by our results, farmers affected by floods and droughts experience significantly lower yields than unaffected farmers. Given an expected increase of weather shocks, higher adoption of adapted seeds is required. 3. Addressing the impact of high rice prices on food security: While beneficial for farmers, elevated paddy prices contribute to high rice prices in the country, posing a significant concern, especially for the most vulnerable segments of the population.2 The most effective means of mitigating the adverse effects of high rice prices on poor consumers is through expanded safety net programs, providing additional liquidity directly to them.
Rice productivity in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2023 dry season by Anonim Pdf
Key Findings We analyze paddy rice productivity and profitability data for the dry seasons of 2022 and 2023, based on the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) fielded in the period of June 26th to July 25th, 2023. The survey covered plots of 659 rice paddy producers. It is found that: • Prices of inputs used in paddy production – fertilizer, labor, mechanization – increased between these two growing seasons by between 13 and 21 percent, on average. On the other hand, paddy prices at the farm increased by 68 percent. • Real profits, with nominal prices corrected by the change in the cost of an average food basket, from paddy rice farming during the dry season of 2023 increased by 41 percent compared to the dry season of 2022. While nominal profits for paddy rice farmers increased by 70 percent over the last two seasons, price inflation has been high in the country and real profit increased therefore much less. • Rice farmers increased input expenditures on paddy production by 50 percent compared to last year. However, larger farmers invested more and doubled input expenditures, likely attracted by the increased profits in paddy farming. • Rice productivity at the national level during the dry season of 2023 on farmers’ largest rice plot was slightly larger (+1.2 percent) than in the previous dry season. Substantial declines are noted in the coastal areas (-29 percent) and the Dry Zone (-5 percent), possibly linked to impacts of cyclone Mocha. • Thirteen percent of all crop farmers reported to have been affected by the cyclone Mocha and 3 percent of the crop farmers indicated that they lost their whole dry season harvest. Almost half of the affected farmers reported that the next monsoon season would not proceed as normal, likely affecting the production of rice – and other crops – in those areas during the next monsoon season. Recommended Actions • As paddy prices have gone up significantly, rice prices have gone up substantially as well, making the costs of Myanmar’s staple food unaffordable for some consumers, especially for the most vulnerable ones. Expansion of safety nets, targeted or self-targeted to the poorest, would therefore be beneficial. • The cyclone Mocha has destroyed harvests of farmers in Rakhine and part of the Dry Zone. As effects of the devastation of the cyclone will continue to be felt during the monsoon of 2023, further assistance for farmers in these areas to recover from these effects is called for. STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM RESEARCH NOTE 99 SEPTEMBER 2023
Agricultural mechanization services, rice productivity, and farm/plot size: Insights from Myanmar by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
The relationship between productivity and farm size has been at the center of considerable debate. Agricultural mechanization – that is rapidly taking off in a large number of low- and middle-income countries – has been identified as one of the emerging technologies in these settings with a critical, yet complex, influence on this productivity-size relation. However, knowledge gaps remain as how agricultural transformation due to the adoption of new technologies and the change in factor costs, such as mechanization fees, are associated with this productivity - size relation. In the case of Myanmar, where mechanization use has dramatically increased over the last decade, we find a significant inverse productivity - plot size relationship, with small rice plots having productivity levels approximately 30 percent higher than large plots. However, rising mechanization fees – more so in conflict-affected townships – attenuated this inverse relation between rice productivity (yield and profit per land) and plot size substantially. These results primarily hold on the largest rice plot cultivated by each farmer, but also generally hold when comparing total rice area and major non-rice area. Our results are likely explained by the fact that, in Myanmar, smallholders have become more dependent on mechanization services than larger farms (who can rely on their own machines) do, that alternatives to mechanization services have become scarce (as mechanization use changed little, despite these price increases), and that mechanization service costs account for a significant share of the total production costs among smallholders.
Pulses sector assessment: Pre- and post-monsoon 2021 and 2022 by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
The pulse sector in Myanmar has emerged as a crucial income source for farmers during the triple crisis, driven by increased export demand and domestic consumption, as well as reduced production costs and irrigation requirements. However, pulse growers still face several challenges, including escalating fertilizer prices, conflict, border closures, and inadequate government support in terms of credit and extension services. This working paper focuses on assessing the performance and competitiveness of the pulse sector during the pre/post monsoon growing seasons of 2021 and 2022. The analysis is based on recall data obtained from the Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted between August 2022 and September 2022.
Conflict and agricultural performance: Evidence from Myanmar by Win, Myat Thida,Maredia, Mywish K. Pdf
Recent years have witnessed an escalation in conflict, especially in developing countries where a significant proportion of the population relies on agriculture. It is crucial to understand how these conflicts impact agricultural production, given its importance for food security and agricultural transformation in these regions. However, research exploring how persistent conflicts affect agriculture is still nascent. Our study adds to this body of research by establishing a causal link between ongoing conflicts and their impact on paddy production, a primary staple crop in Myanmar. This analysis is based on data from a nationally representative phone survey conducted amidst active conflicts. We find that conflict adversely affects paddy production in various ways, including decreases in production and yield, as well as decreases in farmgate prices and the value of production. Our analysis reveals that conflict events, particularly those targeting civilians, have more pronounced negative effects on paddy production, yield, farmgate prices, and the value of production compared to non-targeted conflict incidents that do not purposively target civilians but could potentially disrupt input and output markets. The timing of conflict also significantly affects paddy production, with incidents occurring in mid-season, and during pre-planting and planting periods being the most damaging. Conflict leads to a decrease in the land area devoted to paddy cultivation, lowered probability and intensity of compound fertilizer usage, and an increased reliance on possibly lower quality seeds and exchange labor use. Our findings provide timely and informative insights for development partners and policy frameworks, highlighting the need for emergency assistance and intervention strategies to mitigate the impact of conflict and enhance resilience in areas vulnerable to conflict and instability.
Myanmar agricultural performance survey (Q1 2022): Farmgate prices and marketing by crop farmers by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of output markets and crop prices in Myanmar after the monsoon of 2021. The results are based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with almost 4,000 crop farmers in 281 townships in all states/regions of the country, over the period February 2022 – March 2022. We found that: Commercial rice income was down on average by 5 percent as farmers sold less of their harvest and stored more compared to the year before. Prices of crops linked to export markets increased more because of international price changes as well as the MMK depreciation than crops marketed domestically. For example, maize exported to Thailand increased by 53 percent and pigeon pea exported to India by 44 percent. There is strong heterogeneity in the evolution of income reported from crop sales. Compared to one year earlier, 35 percent of the farmers indicated an increase of crop sales income of more than 20 percent while 36 percent saw a decrease of more than 20 percent. Small farms in more insecure areas saw lower crop sales income increases compared to average farmers while farmers connected to export markets (maize and pulses) had relatively higher income increases from crop sales.
Conflict and agricultural productivity: Evidence from Myanmar by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity Pdf
Evidence is scarce on how conflict affects technology adoption and consequent agricultural productivity in fragile states, an important topic given the high share of the extreme poor living in fragile environments globally. Our study contributes to filling this knowledge gap by using unique large-scale data on rice producers in Myanmar before and after a military coup in 2021, leading to a surge of conflicts in the country. We find that the increase in violent events significantly changed rice productivity. Specifically, increases in fatal violent events between 2020 and 2021 reduced rice Total Factor Productivity (TFP) – a measure of how efficiently agricultural inputs are used to produce rice – by about 4 percent on average in the short-run. Moreover, poorer farmers are more affected by conflict, as seen through an increased output elasticity to agricultural equipment owned, indicating reduced output resilience for less-capital owning, and therefore poorer, farmers. This seems partly due to reduced access to agricultural extension services, which would otherwise help farmers maintain productivity, even with limited capital ownership, through substitution with human capital and skills. Lower mechanization service fees partly mitigate these effects. Our results consistently hold for both short- and long-run production functions, across various specifications, and in Upper and Lower Myanmar. These findings suggest that containing and reducing violent events is critical in restoring rice productivity. Improved access to extension services, as well as to cheap mechanization service provision to mitigate lack of equipment ownership, could compensate for these losses and boost the productivity of farmers, especially for those with less production capital, in such fragile settings.
Farm commercialization in Myanmar: A transformation on hold or in reverse? by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
Over the last decade, farms in Myanmar have gone through important market transitions. On the input side, imports of chemical fertilizer increased four-fold and agro-chemicals eight-fold while 55 percent more farmers were using mechanization rental services between 2011 and 2020. On the output side, three-quarters of Myanmar’s crop production is sold, indicating high market orientation, especially so for non-paddy crops. However, farm commercialization in Myanmar started from a low base and is still lagging peer countries in the region. The twin crises in 2020 and 2021 (the covid-19 and the political crisis) and international market developments have further led to increasing worries for an agricultural market transformation on hold or in reverse, as seen by a decline in imports of modern inputs, driven by price increases of inputs, currency policy changes, insecurity, and reduced profitability for most crop farmers. To improve farm commercialization and to catch up with peers, a better and secure business environment, openness to trade, further diversification, and improved infrastructure is called for.
Urban proximity, conflict, and agricultural development: Evidence from Myanmar by Steinhübel, Linda,Minten, Bart Pdf
Urbanization and violent conflict have been two global trends gaining more and more momentum in recent years. This has important implications for agricultural development, which unfortunately are still not well understood. Urban proximity is generally associated with agricultural intensification and improved market participation, while farming systems in remote areas are characterized by larger shares of subsistence production. Such differences along the remoteness gradient likely also play a role in how conflict exposure affects agricultural production. That is, we must assume that the effect of conflict on agricultural development is location-dependent—a fact that is generally neglected in empirical analysis. We address this gap by drawing from a unique nationally representative data set of 2,292 paddy farmers in Myanmar and estimating the effect of conflict exposure and travel times on agricultural production during the monsoon season of 2021. By applying multivariate additive models, we allow for nonlinear and interacted effects of conflict exposure and urban proximity, thereby explicitly exploring spatial variation in the effect of conflict exposure. We find strong positive effects of urban proximity on paddy rice intensification and sales, while conflict exposure has disproportionately negative effects in direct proximity to urban centers and very remote areas. For agricultural development—and smallholder incomes in general—this means that productive areas, on the one hand, and the poorest areas of the country, on the other hand, are especially affected by conflict.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural input retailers – September 2021 survey round by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
To understand the effects of COVID-19 and political instability on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, a phone survey of 123 input retailers throughout the country was conducted in September 2021. Key findings: Input prices, especially fertilizer, have soared compared to a year ago due to a combination of higher international prices, depreciation of the Myanmar Kyat, and higher freight and domestic transport costs. Faced with price increases of 76 percent on average for compound fertilizer and 132 percent for urea (compared to a year ago), farmers reduced their purchases by 38 percent and 42 percent, respectively. If the decline in fertilizer sales is extended to all of Myanmar, estimated monsoon crop production may fall by 8 percent to 12 percent, equivalent to between $670 million and $1 billion at 2017 prices. Recommendations: The post-monsoon cropping season will be an important opportunity to partially compensate for lower monsoon season production. There is no indication that international fertilizer prices will fall significantly before planting time, however. A combination of temporary fertilizer subsidies and expanded seasonal credit will likely be necessary to encourage farmers to increase crop production.
The impact of disasters and crises on agriculture and food security: 2021 by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Pdf
On top of a decade of exacerbated disaster loss, exceptional global heat, retreating ice and rising sea levels, humanity and our food security face a range of new and unprecedented hazards, such as megafires, extreme weather events, desert locust swarms of magnitudes previously unseen, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Agriculture underpins the livelihoods of over 2.5 billion people – most of them in low-income developing countries – and remains a key driver of development. At no other point in history has agriculture been faced with such an array of familiar and unfamiliar risks, interacting in a hyperconnected world and a precipitously changing landscape. And agriculture continues to absorb a disproportionate share of the damage and loss wrought by disasters. Their growing frequency and intensity, along with the systemic nature of risk, are upending people’s lives, devastating livelihoods, and jeopardizing our entire food system. This report makes a powerful case for investing in resilience and disaster risk reduction – especially data gathering and analysis for evidence informed action – to ensure agriculture’s crucial role in achieving the future we want.
Proceedings of the National Workshop on Promoting Climate Smart Agriculture in Myanmar by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,Yezi Agricultural University Pdf
The “Sustainable Cropland and Forest Management in Priority Agro-ecosystems of Myanmar” Project of FAO in Myanmar is a five-year project (2016-2021) funded by Global Environment Facility (GEF) and being jointly coordinated and implemented by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation (MoNREC) and the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Irrigation (MoALI). The project has supported establishment of a National CSA at Yezin Agriculture University in Myanmar. One of the key activities of the National CSA Center is to organize annual workshop/conference to share ideas, opportunities and challenges with regards to CSA and SLM and to discuss on the way forwards. Such workshops will focus on different themes of CSA and SLM every year. Accordingly, the first workshop was organized by the CSA Center at YAU on 14th Sep 2018 and the theme of this workshop was “Promoting Climate Smart Agriculture in Myanmar”. This proceeding presents the background of the project and workshop and compiles all the papers presented during the workshop.
