Risk Analysis Of Complex And Uncertain Systems

Author : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 457 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2009-06-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780387890142

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Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. Pdf

In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies. It develops and illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems – systems that have behaviors that are just too complex to be modeled accurately in detail with high confidence – and shows how they can be applied to applications including assessing and managing risks from chemical carcinogens, antibiotic resistance, mad cow disease, terrorist attacks, and accidental or deliberate failures in telecommunications network infrastructure. This book was written for a broad range of practitioners, including decision risk analysts, operations researchers and management scientists, quantitative policy analysts, economists, health and safety risk assessors, engineers, and modelers.

Author : Terje Aven,Piero Baraldi,Roger Flage,Enrico Zio
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2013-12-17
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781118763063

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Uncertainty in Risk Assessment by Terje Aven,Piero Baraldi,Roger Flage,Enrico Zio Pdf

Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.

Author : Xiangping Meng,Zhaoyu Pian
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 352 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2015-11-12
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780128039588

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Intelligent Coordinated Control of Complex Uncertain Systems for Power Distribution Network Reliability by Xiangping Meng,Zhaoyu Pian Pdf

Intelligent Coordinated Control of Complex Uncertain Systems for Power Distribution and Network Reliability discusses the important topics revolving around the control of complex uncertain systems using the intelligent coordination control mechanism, a topic that has become the research focus of current control and computer fields. The book provides theoretical guidance for power distribution network reliability analysis, focusing on practical problems and algorithms within the field. Provides effective solutions for complex control systems Presents theoretical guidance for power distribution network reliability analysis Focuses on practical problems and algorithms

Author : Cesar Ariel Pinto,Paul R. Garvey
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 451 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2016-04-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781439826157

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Advanced Risk Analysis in Engineering Enterprise Systems by Cesar Ariel Pinto,Paul R. Garvey Pdf

Since the emerging discipline of engineering enterprise systems extends traditional systems engineering to develop webs of systems and systems-of-systems, the engineering management and management science communities need new approaches for analyzing and managing risk in engineering enterprise systems. Advanced Risk Analysis in Engineering Enterpri

Author : Stein Haugen,Anne Barros,Coen van Gulijk,Trond Kongsvik,Jan Erik Vinnem
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 3202 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2018-06-15
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781351174657

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Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World by Stein Haugen,Anne Barros,Coen van Gulijk,Trond Kongsvik,Jan Erik Vinnem Pdf

Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World collects the papers presented at the 28th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018 in Trondheim, Norway, June 17-21, 2018. The contributions cover a wide range of methodologies and application areas for safety and reliability that contribute to safe societies in a changing world. These methodologies and applications include: - foundations of risk and reliability assessment and management - mathematical methods in reliability and safety - risk assessment - risk management - system reliability - uncertainty analysis - digitalization and big data - prognostics and system health management - occupational safety - accident and incident modeling - maintenance modeling and applications - simulation for safety and reliability analysis - dynamic risk and barrier management - organizational factors and safety culture - human factors and human reliability - resilience engineering - structural reliability - natural hazards - security - economic analysis in risk management Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World will be invaluable to academics and professionals working in a wide range of industrial and governmental sectors: offshore oil and gas, nuclear engineering, aeronautics and aerospace, marine transport and engineering, railways, road transport, automotive engineering, civil engineering, critical infrastructures, electrical and electronic engineering, energy production and distribution, environmental engineering, information technology and telecommunications, insurance and finance, manufacturing, marine transport, mechanical engineering, security and protection, and policy making.

Author : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 386 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2013-02-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781461460589

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Improving Risk Analysis by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. Pdf

Improving Risk Analysis shows how to better assess and manage uncertain risks when the consequences of alternative actions are in doubt. The constructive methods of causal analysis and risk modeling presented in this monograph will enable to better understand uncertain risks and decide how to manage them. The book is divided into three parts. Parts 1 shows how high-quality risk analysis can improve the clarity and effectiveness of individual, community, and enterprise decisions when the consequences of different choices are uncertain. Part 2 discusses social decisions. Part 3 illustrates these methods and models, showing how to apply them to health effects of particulate air pollution. "Tony Cox’s new book addresses what risk analysts and policy makers most need to know: How to find out what causes what, and how to quantify the practical differences that changes in risk management practices would make. The constructive methods in Improving Risk Analysis will be invaluable in helping practitioners to deliver more useful insights to inform high-stakes decisions and policy,in areas ranging from disaster planning to counter-terrorism investments to enterprise risk management to air pollution abatement policies. Better risk management is possible and practicable; Improving Risk Analysis explains how." Elisabeth Pate-Cornell, Stanford University "Improving Risk Analysis offers crucial advice for moving policy-relevant risk analyses towards more defensible, causally-based methods. Tony Cox draws on his extensive experience to offer sound advice and insights that will be invaluable to both policy makers and analysts in strengthening the foundations for important risk analyses. This much-needed book should be required reading for policy makers and policy analysts confronting uncertain risks and seeking more trustworthy risk analyses." Seth Guikema, Johns Hopkins University "Tony Cox has been a trail blazer in quantitative risk analysis, and his new book gives readers the knowledge and tools needed to cut through the complexity and advocacy inherent in risk analysis. Cox’s careful exposition is detailed and thorough, yet accessible to non-technical readers interested in understanding uncertain risks and the outcomes associated with different mitigation actions. Improving Risk Analysis should be required reading for public officials responsible for making policy decisions about how best to protect public health and safety in an uncertain world." Susan E. Dudley, George Washington University

Author : Felix Lebed
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 298 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2017-05-12
Category : Sports & Recreation
ISBN : 9781317434764

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Complex Sport Analytics by Felix Lebed Pdf

This book is the first to combine principles from analytics, complex systems theory, multi-disciplinary diagnostics and sport performance analysis. It considers athletes, teams, and sport organizations in individual and team games as complex systems, and demonstrates how complexity studies can enrich analytics and give us a more sophisticated understanding of the causalities of winning and losing in sports. Part I introduces the basic categories of analytics and their uses in elite sport. Part II presents an original conception of sport analytics both as a complex of different kinds of processes and as a complexity-adapted view of human systems acting in sport performance and management. Part III considers the main principles of complex sport analytics, expanding the prism of complexity to include all levels of a sport organization from athletes, coaches and trainers to top decision makers, and suggests practical applications and simulations for cases of both individual and team sports. This is illuminating reading for any advanced student, researcher or practitioner working in sport analytics, performance analysis, coaching science or sport management.

Author : Jim W. Hall,Michael Beer,Siu-Kui Au
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2024-04-30
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 0784413606

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Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management by Jim W. Hall,Michael Beer,Siu-Kui Au Pdf

Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis (ISUMA), held in Liverpool, UK, July 13-16, 2014. Sponsored by the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty and the Virtual Engineering Centre of the University of Liverpool, the Environmental Change Institute of the University of Oxford, and the Council on Disaster Risk Management of ASCE. Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management, CDRM 9, contains 290 peer-reviewed papers that build upon recent significant advances in the quantification, mitigation, and management of risk and uncertainty. These papers focus on decision making and multi-disciplinary developments to address the demands and challenges evolving from the rapidly growing complexity of real-world problems. Topics include: risk assessment and management of critical infrastructure projects; performance-based and reliability-based structural optimization under uncertainty; verified and stochastic approaches to modeling and simulation under uncertainty; risk management for floods, tsunamis, earthquakes, and other natural hazards; risk and uncertainty modeling in transportation and logistics; and geotechnical risk, uncertainty, and decision making. These papers will be valuable to experts, decision-makers, and others involved in assessing, planning responses to, and managing vulnerability and risk.

Author : Enrico Zio,Nicola Pedroni
Publisher : FonCSI
Page : 61 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2013-03-01
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Literature review of methods for representing uncertainty by Enrico Zio,Nicola Pedroni Pdf

This document provides a critical review of different frameworks for uncertainty analysis, in a risk analysis context : classical probabilistic analysis, imprecise probability (interval analysis), probability bound analysis, evidence theory, and possibility theory. The driver of the critical analysis is the decision-making process and the need to feed it with representative information derived from the risk assessment, to robustly support the decision. Technical details of the different frameworks are exposed only to the extent necessary to analyze and judge how these contribute to the communication of risk and the representation of the associated uncertainties to decision-makers, in the typical settings of high-consequence risk analysis of complex systems with limited knowledge on their behaviour.

Author : Andrzej Jankowski
Publisher : Springer
Page : 654 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2017-06-25
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783319576275

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Interactive Granular Computations in Networks and Systems Engineering: A Practical Perspective by Andrzej Jankowski Pdf

The book outlines selected projects conducted under the supervision of the author. Moreover, it discusses significant relations between Interactive Granular Computing (IGrC) and numerous dynamically developing scientific domains worldwide, along with features characteristic of the author’s approach to IGrC. The results presented are a continuation and elaboration of various aspects of Wisdom Technology, initiated and developed in cooperation with Professor Andrzej Skowron. Based on the empirical findings from these projects, the author explores the following areas: (a) understanding the causes of the theory and practice gap problem (TPGP) in complex systems engineering (CSE); (b) generalizing computing models of complex adaptive systems (CAS) (in particular, natural computing models) by constructing an interactive granular computing (IGrC) model of networks of interrelated interacting complex granules (c-granules), belonging to a single agent and/or to a group of agents; (c) developing methodologies based on the IGrC model to minimize the negative consequences of the TPGP. The book introduces approaches to the above issues, using the proposed IGrC model. In particular, the IGrC model refers to the key mechanisms used to control the processes related to the implementation of CSE projects. One of the main aims was to develop a mechanism of IGrC control over computations that model a project’s implementation processes to maximize the chances of its success, while at the same time minimizing the emerging risks. In this regard, the IGrC control is usually performed by means of properly selected and enforced (among project participants) project principles. These principles constitute examples of c-granules, expressed by complex vague concepts (represented by c-granules too). The c-granules evolve with time (in particular, the meaning of the concepts is also subject of change). This methodology is illustrated using project principles applied by the author during the implementation of the POLTAX, AlgoTradix, Merix, and Excavio projects outlined in the book.

Author : Adiel Teixeira de Almeida,Cristiano Alexandre Virgínio Cavalcante,Marcelo Hazin Alencar,Rodrigo José Pires Ferreira,Adiel Teixeira de Almeida-Filho,Thalles Vitelli Garcez
Publisher : Springer
Page : 395 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2015-07-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319179698

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Multicriteria and Multiobjective Models for Risk, Reliability and Maintenance Decision Analysis by Adiel Teixeira de Almeida,Cristiano Alexandre Virgínio Cavalcante,Marcelo Hazin Alencar,Rodrigo José Pires Ferreira,Adiel Teixeira de Almeida-Filho,Thalles Vitelli Garcez Pdf

This book integrates multiple criteria concepts and methods for problems within the Risk, Reliability and Maintenance (RRM) context. The concepts and foundations related to RRM are considered for this integration with multicriteria approaches. In the book, a general framework for building decision models is presented and this is illustrated in various chapters by discussing many different decision models related to the RRM context. The scope of the book is related to ways of how to integrate Applied Probability and Decision Making. In Applied Probability, this mainly includes: decision analysis and reliability theory, amongst other topics closely related to risk analysis and maintenance. In Decision Making, it includes a broad range of topics in MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making) and MCDA (Multi-Criteria Decision Aiding; also known as Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis). In addition to decision analysis, some of the topics related to Mathematical Programming area are briefly considered, such as multiobjective optimization, since methods related to these topics have been applied to the context of RRM. The book addresses an innovative treatment for the decision making in RRM, thereby improving the integration of fundamental concepts from the areas of both RRM and decision making. This is accomplished by presenting an overview of the literature on decision making in RRM. Some pitfalls of decision models when applying them to RRM in practice are discussed and guidance on overcoming these drawbacks is offered. The procedure enables multicriteria models to be built for the RRM context, including guidance on choosing an appropriate multicriteria method for a particular problem faced in the RRM context. The book also includes many research advances in these topics. Most of the multicriteria decision models that are described are specific applications that have been influenced by this research and the advances in this field. Multicriteria and Multiobjective Models for Risk, Reliability and Maintenance Decision Analysis is implicitly structured in three parts, with 12 chapters. The first part deals with MCDM/A concepts methods and decision processes. The second part presents the main concepts and foundations of RRM. Finally the third part deals with specific decision problems in the RRM context approached with MCDM/A models.

Author : John R. Vacca
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 522 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2020-11-09
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780429621796

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Cloud Computing Security by John R. Vacca Pdf

This handbook offers a comprehensive overview of cloud computing security technology and implementation while exploring practical solutions to a wide range of cloud computing security issues. As more organizations use cloud computing and cloud providers for data operations, the need for proper security in these and other potentially vulnerable areas has become a global priority for organizations of all sizes. Research efforts from academia and industry, as conducted and reported by experts in all aspects of security related to cloud computing, are gathered within one reference guide. Features • Covers patching and configuration vulnerabilities of a cloud server • Evaluates methods for data encryption and long-term storage in a cloud server • Demonstrates how to verify identity using a certificate chain and how to detect inappropriate changes to data or system configurations John R. Vacca is an information technology consultant and internationally known author of more than 600 articles in the areas of advanced storage, computer security, and aerospace technology. John was also a configuration management specialist, computer specialist, and the computer security official (CSO) for NASA’s space station program (Freedom) and the International Space Station Program from 1988 until his retirement from NASA in 1995.

Author : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 443 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2023-07-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783031320132

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AI-ML for Decision and Risk Analysis by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. Pdf

This book explains and illustrates recent developments and advances in decision-making and risk analysis. It demonstrates how artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have not only benefitted from classical decision analysis concepts such as expected utility maximization but have also contributed to making normative decision theory more useful by forcing it to confront realistic complexities. These include skill acquisition, uncertain and time-consuming implementation of intended actions, open-world uncertainties about what might happen next and what consequences actions can have, and learning to cope effectively with uncertain and changing environments. The result is a more robust and implementable technology for AI/ML-assisted decision-making. The book is intended to inform a wide audience in related applied areas and to provide a fun and stimulating resource for students, researchers, and academics in data science and AI-ML, decision analysis, and other closely linked academic fields. It will also appeal to managers, analysts, decision-makers, and policymakers in financial, health and safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management.

Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 597 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2003-06-26
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780203497692

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Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics by Bilal M. Ayyub Pdf

More than any other book available, Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics introduces the fundamental concepts, techniques, and applications of the subject in a style tailored to meet the needs of students and practitioners of engineering, science, economics, and finance. Drawing on his extensive experience in uncertainty and risk modeling and analysis, the author leads readers from the fundamental concepts through the theory, applications, and data requirements, sources, and collection. He emphasizes the practical use of the methods presented and carefully examines the limitations, advantages, and disadvantages of each. Case studies that incorporate the techniques discussed offer a practical perspective that helps readers clearly identify and solve problems encountered in practice. If you deal with decision-making under conditions of uncertainty, this book is required reading. The presentation includes more than 300 tables and figures, more than 100 examples, many case studies, and a wealth of end-of-chapter problems. Unlike the classical books on reliability and risk assessment, this book helps you relate underlying concepts to everyday applications and better prepares you to understand and use the methods of risk analysis.

Author : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science, Space, and Technology (2011). Subcommittee on Environment
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 356 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2014
Category : Environmental sciences
ISBN : MINN:31951D03773094Y

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Ensuring Open Science at EPA by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science, Space, and Technology (2011). Subcommittee on Environment Pdf