Risk Modeling For Determining Value And Decision Making

Author : Glenn Koller
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 336 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2000-05-17
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781420035940

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Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making by Glenn Koller Pdf

Risk or uncertainty assessments are used as aids to decision making in nearly every aspect of business, education, and government. As a follow-up to the author's bestselling Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making presents comprehensive examples of risk/uncertainty analyses from a broad range of applications. Decision/option selection Manufacturing Environmental assessment Pricing Identification of business drivers Production sharing Insurance Scheduling and optimization Investing Security Law Emphasizing value as the focus of risk assessment, this book offers discussions on how to make decisions using each risk model and what insights the model can provide. The presentation of each model also includes computer code that encapsulates its logic and direction on how to apply the model to other types of problems. The author devotes a chapter to techniques for consistently collecting data in an inconsistent world and offers another chapter on how to reflect the effect of "soft" issues in the value of an opportunity. The book's final chapters delineate the techniques and technologies used to perform risk/uncertainty analyses, including sections on distribution, Monte Carlo process, dependence, sensitivity analysis, time series analysis, and chance of failure. Visit RiskSupport.com for more information!

Author : Glenn Koller
Publisher : Chapman and Hall/CRC
Page : 336 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2000-05-17
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 1584881674

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Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making by Glenn Koller Pdf

Risk or uncertainty assessments are used as aids to decision making in nearly every aspect of business, education, and government. As a follow-up to the author's bestselling Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making presents comprehensive examples of risk/uncertainty analyses from a broad range of applications. Decision/option selection Manufacturing Environmental assessment Pricing Identification of business drivers Production sharing Insurance Scheduling and optimization Investing Security Law Emphasizing value as the focus of risk assessment, this book offers discussions on how to make decisions using each risk model and what insights the model can provide. The presentation of each model also includes computer code that encapsulates its logic and direction on how to apply the model to other types of problems. The author devotes a chapter to techniques for consistently collecting data in an inconsistent world and offers another chapter on how to reflect the effect of "soft" issues in the value of an opportunity. The book's final chapters delineate the techniques and technologies used to perform risk/uncertainty analyses, including sections on distribution, Monte Carlo process, dependence, sensitivity analysis, time series analysis, and chance of failure. Visit RiskSupport.com for more information!

Author : Glenn Koller
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 352 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2005-03-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781420035056

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Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry by Glenn Koller Pdf

Building upon the technical and organizational groundwork presented in the first edition, Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Second Edition addresses the many aspects of risk/uncertainty (R/U) process implementation. This comprehensive volume covers four broad aspects of R/U: general concepts, i

Author : Kenneth S. Hackel
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
Page : 626 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2010-11-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780071744430

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Security Valuation and Risk Analysis: Assessing Value in Investment Decision-Making by Kenneth S. Hackel Pdf

A superior new replacement to traditional discounted cash flow valuation models Executives and corporate finance practitioners now have a more reliable discount rate to value companies and make important business and investment decisions. In today's market, it’s free cash flow, cost of capital and return on invested capital that really matters, and now there's a superior tool to help analyze these metrics—Security Valuation and Risk Analysis. In this pioneering book, valuation authority Kenneth Hackel presents his next-generation methodology for placing a confident value on an enterprise and identifying discrepancies in value—a system that will provide even the most well-informed investor with an important competitive advantage. At the core of Security Valuation and Risk Analysis is Hackel's successful credit model for determining an accurate fair value and reliable discount rate for a company. Using free cash flow as the basis for evaluating return on invested capital is the most effective method for determining value. Hackel takes you step by step through years of compelling evidence that shows how his method has earned outsized returns and helped turn around companies that were heading toward failure. Whether used for corporate portfolio strategy, acquisitions, or performance management, the tools presented in Security Valuation and Risk Analysis are unmatched in their accuracy and reliability. Reading through this informative book, you'll discover how to: Take advantage of early warning signs related to cash flow and credit metrics Estimate the cost of equity capital from which free cash flows are discounted Identify where management can free up resources by using a better definition of free cash flow Security Valuation and Risk Analysis provides a complete education on cash flow and credit, from how traditional analysts value a company and spot market mispricing (and why many of those traditional methods are obsolete) to working with the most recent financial innovations, including derivatives, special purpose entities, pensions, and more. Security Valuation and Risk Analysis is your answer to a credit market gone bad, from an expert who knows bad credit from good.

Author : Yacov Y. Haimes
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 714 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2015-08-03
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781119017981

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Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management by Yacov Y. Haimes Pdf

Presents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy. The author presents fundamental concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; state space; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision trees; multi-objective risk impact analysis method; guiding principles in risk analysis); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies. The book will be used in systems engineering, enterprise risk management, engineering management, industrial engineering, civil engineering, and operations research. The fourth edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management features: Expanded chapters on systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modeling An expanded appendix including a Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer’s Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear model Updated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions for emergent complex systems of systems A new companion website with over 200 solved exercises that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and application Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Fourth Edition, is written for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses. The text also serves as a resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in the fields of homeland and cyber security, healthcare, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more.

Author : Terje Aven
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 245 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2012-04-09
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781119966975

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Foundations of Risk Analysis by Terje Aven Pdf

Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis – understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes: An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe risk based on research carried out in recent years. A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the understanding of risk. Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to measure/describe uncertainties. A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities. In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.

Author : Terje Aven
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2004-01-09
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780470871232

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Foundations of Risk Analysis by Terje Aven Pdf

Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis ? expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support decision making. Presents a statistical framework for dealing with risk and uncertainty. Includes detailed coverage of building and applying risk models and methods. Offers new perspectives on risk, risk assessment and the use of parametric probability models. Highlights a number of applications from business and industry. Adopts a conceptual approach based on elementary probability calculus and statistical theory. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.

Author : Charles Yoe
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 816 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2019-01-30
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780429667619

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Principles of Risk Analysis by Charles Yoe Pdf

In every decision problem there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis science uses the best available evidence to assess what we know while it is carefully intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we do not know in the evaluation of decision choices and decision outcomes. The field of risk analysis science continues to expand and grow and the second edition of Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty responds to this evolution with several significant changes. The language has been updated and expanded throughout the text and the book features several new areas of expansion including five new chapters. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. Features: Details the tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication in a straightforward, conceptual manner Provides sufficient detail to empower professionals in any discipline to become risk practitioners Expands the risk management emphasis with a new chapter to serve private industry and a growing public sector interest in the growing practice of enterprise risk management Describes dozens of quantitative and qualitative risk assessment tools in a new chapter Practical guidance and ideas for using risk science to improve decisions and their outcomes is found in a new chapter on decision making under uncertainty Practical methods for helping risk professionals to tell their risk story are the focus of a new chapter Features an expanded set of examples of the risk process that demonstrate the growing applications of risk analysis As before, this book continues to appeal to professionals who want to learn and apply risk science in their own professions as well as students preparing for professional careers. This book remains a discipline free guide to the principles of risk analysis that is accessible to all interested practitioners. Files used in the creation of this book and additional exercises as well as a free student version of Palisade Corporation’s Decision Tools Suite software are available with the purchase of this book. A less detailed introduction to the risk analysis science tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication is found in Primer of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition, ISBN: 978-1-138-31228-9.

Author : Ricardas Zitikis,Jiandong Ren,Kristina Sendova
Publisher : MDPI
Page : 210 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2020-04-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783039285167

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Risk, Ruin and Survival by Ricardas Zitikis,Jiandong Ren,Kristina Sendova Pdf

Developing techniques for assessing various risks and calculating probabilities of ruin and survival are exciting topics for mathematically-inclined academics. For practicing actuaries and financial engineers, the resulting insights have provided enormous opportunities but also created serious challenges to overcome, thus facilitating closer cooperation between industries and academic institutions. In this book, several renown researchers with extensive interdisciplinary research experiences share their thoughts that, in one way or another, contribute to the betterment of practice and theory of decision making under uncertainty. Behavioral, cultural, mathematical, and statistical aspects of risk assessment and modelling have been explored, and have been often illustrated using real and simulated data. Topics range from financial and insurance risks to security-type risks, from one-dimensional to multi- and even infinite-dimensional risks. The articles in the book were written with a broad audience in mind and should provide enjoyable reading for those with university level degrees and/or those who have studied for accreditation by various actuarial and financial societies.

Author : Kenneth Chelst,Yavuz Burak Canbolat
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 578 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2011-10-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781439897553

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Value-Added Decision Making for Managers by Kenneth Chelst,Yavuz Burak Canbolat Pdf

Developed from the authors' longstanding course on decision and risk analysis, Value-Added Decision Making for Managers explores the important interaction between decisions and management action and clarifies the barriers to rational decision making. The authors analyze strengths and weaknesses of the best alternatives, enabling decision makers to

Author : Constantin Zopounidis,Ramzi Benkraiem,Iordanis Kalaitzoglou
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 480 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2021-09-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030666910

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Financial Risk Management and Modeling by Constantin Zopounidis,Ramzi Benkraiem,Iordanis Kalaitzoglou Pdf

Risk is the main source of uncertainty for investors, debtholders, corporate managers and other stakeholders. For all these actors, it is vital to focus on identifying and managing risk before making decisions. The success of their businesses depends on the relevance of their decisions and consequently, on their ability to manage and deal with the different types of risk. Accordingly, the main objective of this book is to promote scientific research in the different areas of risk management, aiming at being transversal and dealing with different aspects of risk management related to corporate finance as well as market finance. Thus, this book should provide useful insights for academics as well as professionals to better understand and assess the different types of risk.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 76 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 1982-01-01
Category : Decision-making
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Risk and Decision Making by Anonim Pdf

Author : Jean-Paul Chavas
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 258 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2004-06-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780121706210

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Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice by Jean-Paul Chavas Pdf

The objective of Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice is to present this analytical framework and to illustrate how it can be used in the investigation of economic decisions under risk. In a sense, the economics of risk is a difficult subject: it involves understanding human decisions in the absence of perfect information. How do we make decisions when we do not know some of events affecting us? The complexities of our uncertain world and of how humans obtain and process information make this difficult. In spite of these difficulties, much progress has been made. First, probability theory is the corner stone of risk assessment. This allows us to measure risk in a fashion that can be communicated among decision makers or researchers. Second, risk preferences are now better understood. This provides useful insights into the economic rationality of decision making under uncertainty. Third, over the last decades, good insights have been developed about the value of information. This helps better understand the role of information in human decision making and this book provides a systematic treatment of these issues in the context of both private and public decisions under uncertainty. Balanced treatment of conceptual models and applied analysis Considers both private and public decisions under uncertainty Website presents application exercises in Excel

Author : John R. Schuyler
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 294 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2001
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : PSU:000056734621

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Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects by John R. Schuyler Pdf

Some of Schuyler's tried-and-true tips include: - The single-point estimate is almost always wrong, so that it is always better to express judgments as ranges. A probability distribution completely expresses someone's judgment about the likelihood of values within the range.- We often need a single-value cost or other assessment, and the expected value (mean) of the distribution is the only unbiased predictor. Expected value is the probability-weighted average, and this statistical idea is the cornerstone of decision analysis.- Some decisions are easy, perhaps aided by quick decision tree calculations on the back of an envelope. Decision dilemmas typically involve risky outcomes, many factors, and the best alternatives having comparable value. We only need analysis sufficient to confidently identify the best alternative. As soon as you know what to do, stop the analysis!- Be alert to ways to beneficially change project risks. We can often eliminate, avoid, transfer, or mitigate threats in some way. Get to know the people who make their living helping managers sidestep risk. They include insurance agents, partners, turnkey contractors, accountants, trainers, and safety personnel.

Author : Charles Yoe
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 254 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2011-07-15
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781439857632

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Primer on Risk Analysis by Charles Yoe Pdf

In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know—and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don’t know. Primer on Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. This primer tackles the question, "what is risk analysis?" Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, it provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. Readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks—risk management, assessment, and communication. Making a distinction between knowledge uncertainty and natural variability, the book also introduces a down-to-earth approach to decision making under uncertainty. Extensive examples illustrate the applicability of the risk analysis principles. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles of risk analysis in a manner that enables readers to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis. A companion volume, Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles of risk analysis—the "how to." Additional exercises, as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools® Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download.