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Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK by Samya Beidas-Strom,Marco Lorusso Pdf
We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.
Orsam Rapor Sayı:32 / Understanding Economic Relations Between Saudi Arabia And Russia by Murat Aslan,Halil Kürşad Aslan Pdf
The Middle East region was redesigned in the aftermath of the First World War according to the balance and interests between the world powers of the period. Between the two world wars, there had not been much change in local societies and political mechanisms in the Middle East region. After the Second World War, especially since the 1950s, this region has had an important place in the power struggle between the United States of America and the Soviet Union. In the new global order that emerged after the end of the Cold War, the Middle East region continued to undergo regional fluctuations under the influence of new power dynamics. The United States, which was the only global superpower in the 1990s, was acting according to its own interests with its hegemonic power both in world politics and in the Middle East. However, since the 2000s, the world order has become more polarized, and Russia's interest in the region has increased together with China’s. The main focus of this report is to examine the main driving motives behind the economic and trade relations that were formed between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (hereinafter the KSA) and the Russian Federation (hereinafter the RF) since the 1990s. One of the main arguments set forward in this report is that the course of the economic relations between KSA and RF has been guided by the changing political balances and power relations at the global and regional levels. It is clear that explaining bilateral economic relations between countries with only one dimension and simple political (or economic) concepts will be highly unrealistic and extremely insufficient. It is also clear that an explanation based merely on simple economic concepts such as foreign trade, exchange rates, and profit maximization would be incomplete. For these reasons, we find it appropriate to analyze the diplomatic and political relations and developments in the Moscow-Riyadh axis by utilizing an interdisciplinary approach. The perspective of the global political economy offers a powerful explanatory model. In the most recent decades both Moscow and Riyadh have been following proactive foreign policies, and their policy behaviors resemble a complicated mechanism fed from multiple sources. Russia's national economy has been stagnant due to the recent decline in oil prices. Despite the weakening budgetary resources and the economic stagnation, Russia's foreign policy moves are heading towards an extremely proactive trajectory. The important events of the 2000s are the September 11 terrorist attacks, invasion of Iraq by the US, Color Revolutions in the former Soviet geography, 2008 global financial crisis, and the Arab uprisings that have shaken the Middle East since 2010-2011 and their repercussions. These changes have deeply affected the world political system and global governance issues. The Moscow elite focused on two aspects of these changes and developments: the survival of the state and increasing security threats. These major events have fed into Russia's highly assertive and aggressive foreign policy behavior. Military engagement with Georgia in 2008, rapprochement with China and Iran, as well as the improvement of diplomatic relations in the Middle East are some examples in this regard. In particular, Russia's proactive foreign policy behaviors have accelerated since 2012 with Putin’s third term as president, reaching a peak in 2015 when Moscow surprised the international community by actively involving in the Syrian civil war. Since the collapse of the USSR, Russia has been conducting military operations for the first time in a region outside the former Soviet territory. From a global perspective, we observe that Russia's foreign policy has had a significant impact, particularly on Middle Eastern affairs. Russia’s relationship with the Middle East is based on three pillars: restoration of prestige in the global power struggle, security interests, and economic interests (Wasser, 2019). These factors, to a certain extent, also apply to Russia’s bilateral relations with the KSA. Another critical factor in the course of bilateral relations between Saudi Arabia and Russia is the changes in the US perception of global and regional security threats. Especially after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, Saudi Arabia, like all Gulf countries, had its share from the aggressive approach of the US. In the face of Washington's aggressive and unconstructive attitude, the Gulf monarchies had to take some steps for the protection of the status quo. Historically, the relations between the KSA and Russia were mostly shaped by the state of relations between Riyadh and Washington. Yet, the relations between the KSA and Russia have evolved to include economic and political interests in addition to the indirect effects of the power struggle among global powers. Russia's active engagement in the Middle East and the Gulf has both geopolitical and regional dimensions. From the geopolitical point of view, Moscow always looks at the region through the lens of its goal of projecting power at the global level and confronting the West—or simply the US. Thus, regional priorities play a secondary role. Analysts and experts have focused on Russia’s foreign policy actions, including Moscow’s partnership with China, the war against Georgia, conflicts with Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea, military intervention in Syria, and the increasing activism in the Eurasian Economic Union, which can be considered to be in line with Russia’s strategy of balancing the West. Such measures are part of a broader strategy aimed at undermining the cohesion in the rival axis, (US, NATO, and the European Union) thus making the Western alliance unable to plan, formulate, and implement a policy on Russia and its near abroad. As an example of the challenge posed by Moscow to the US and its global liberal order, in June 2021, Russia declared that it would remove its dollar assets and replace them with gold and euros. There is a lack of analytical studies that examine Putin's era in the Russian Federation from a political economy perspective. Many crucial issues and questions are yet to be addressed. The most important question in this regard is what are the main factors behind Moscow’s recent activism in the Middle East? This report tries to answer this question by focusing on the interplay of global power dynamics, ideational and domestic sources of Russian foreign policy under the rubric of the global political economy. In the following sections, the study reviews the bilateral relations between the KSA and RF after the Cold War. In the subsequent section, the main pillars of Russian foreign policy are outlined with a political economy approach. Later, the report reviews the macroeconomic characteristics of these two countries. In the fourth section, the study focuses on bilateral relations in a historical context. In the fifth section, the bilateral relations are discussed under the headings of trade, energy, and investment, to shed light on all those issues. In particular, the study offers an in-depth analysis of trade, investment, and energy questions, where we examine the complex interdependency and other dynamics in the global energy markets that, to some extent, shape the recent coordination between the KSA and the Russian Federation. The final section concludes the report.
Katz undersøger Sovjetunionens politik overfor staterne på den arabiske halvø og peger på tre mulige strategier, som kunne sikre Sovjet kontrol med disse stater, af hvis olie den vestlige civilisation fremdeles er afhængig. Han anbefaler derfor forskellige modtræk. Nordyemen, Sydyemen, Oman, Saudi Arabien, Kuwait, Forenede Arabiske Emirater, Bahrain og Qatar.
Russia Rising by Dimitar Bechev,Nicu Popescu,Stanislav Secrieru Pdf
The war in Syria has put Russia at the centre of Middle Eastern politics. Moscow's return to the region following a prolonged period of absence has enhanced its geopolitical status at a time it has emerged as a rival to the West. Yet, contrary to the media hype, Vladimir Putin is not set to become the new power-broker in this strategically important part of the world. Co-authored by a team of prominent scholars and analysts from the EU, US, Russia and the Middle East, this book explores Russia's role in the Middle East and North Africa, the diverse drivers shaping its policy, and the response from local players. Chapters map out the history of Russian involvement, before and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the impact on key issues such as security and defence, regional conflicts, arms trade, and energy, as well as relations influential states and country clusters such as Iran, the Gulf, Turkey, Israel, Egypt, and the Maghreb. It also looks at how the Middle East impacts on Russia's relations with the West. The book offers a balanced assessment of Russian influence, highlighting both the political, diplomatic and commercial gains made thanks to Putin's decision in September 2015 to intervene militarily in Syria and the constraints preventing Moscow from replacing the United States as a regional hegemon.
Russia in the Middle East and North Africa by Chiara Lovotti,Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti,Christopher Hartwell,Aleksandra Chmielewska Pdf
After decades of intense interest and rivalry with the USA, the end of the Cold War and the dismantling of the USSR officially marked a period of significant retreat of Russia from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). However, with Russia’s economic recovery and the entrenchment of President Vladimir Putin, Russia’s interest in the region has risen anew. Once again seen as a battleground to contest US hegemony, Russia has expanded its political, military and (to a lesser extent) economic relationships across the region. Most apparent in the military intervention in Syria, Russia has also been engaged with traditional rivals Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, stepping into the vacuum left by the US Obama Administration. Is Russia’s reengagement part of a strategy, or is it mere opportunism? Authors with different backgrounds, experiences and origins examine this question via an analysis of the historical drivers of Russian interest in the MENA region and the factors underlying current Russian policies.
In recent decades Russia has played an increasingly active role in the Middle East as states within the region continue to diversify their relations with major external powers. Yet the role of specific Russian regions, especially those that share an 'Islamic identity' with the GCC has been overlooked. In this book Diana Galeeva examines the relations between the Gulf States and Russia from the Soviet era to the present day. Using the Republic of Tatarstan, one of Russia's Muslim polities as a case study, Galeeva demonstrates the emergence of relations between modern Tatarstan and the GCC States, evolving from concerns with economic survival to a rising paradiplomacy reliant on shared Islamic identities. Having conducted fieldwork in the Muslim Republics of Tatarstan, Bashkortostan and Dagestan, the book includes interviews with high-ranking political figures, heads of religious organisations and academics. Moving beyond solely economic and geopolitical considerations, the research in this book sheds light on the increasingly important role that culture and shared Islamic identity play in paradiplomacy efforts.
Russia’s Relations with the GCC and Iran by Nikolay Kozhanov Pdf
This book offers insight into the motives behind Moscow’s behaviour in the Persian Gulf (with a specific focus on the GCC member states and Iran), considering Russia’s growing role in the Middle East and its desire to protect national interests using a wide range of means. The book explores the drivers and motivations of the Russian foreign policy in the Gulf region, thus, helping the audience to generate informed prognosis about Moscow’s moves in this area over the next years. In contrast to most studies of Russia’s presence in the region, this book considers the Russian involvement in the Gulf from two standpoints – the Russian and foreign. The idea of the book is to take several key problems of Moscow’s presence in the Gulf, each of these to be covered by two authors—Russian and non-Russian scholars, in order to offer the readers alternative visions of Moscow’s policies towards Iran and the GCC countries
Author : Benjamin Houghton,Kasia A. Houghton Publisher : Taylor & Francis Page : 208 pages File Size : 54,8 Mb Release : 2023-12-01 Category : Political Science ISBN : 9781003809890
China, Russia, and the USA in the Middle East by Benjamin Houghton,Kasia A. Houghton Pdf
The shift in international relations towards multipolarity has had profound implications across the world, but particularly in highly penetrated regions, such as the Middle East. This book explores the rivalry between the United States, Russia, and China in the region, investigating its effects and assessing the influence of regional actors and issues. Each chapter offers a comprehensive analysis of three core questions: how does global power competition manifest itself?; how does it impact regional political, economic, and security dynamics?; and how do regional actors and issues influence the trajectory and dynamics of global power competition? Expert international contributors take a country case study approach to consider these questions and investigate the most pressing contemporary events, issues, and trends in Middle Eastern politics. Tackling transregional and global issues and themes they analyse the convergence, divergence, and competition between global powers in managing threats and interests such as terrorism, energy and cyber security, nuclear non-proliferation, conflict resolution, and warfare. This volume will appeal to scholars and students of international relations, great power competition, China, Russia, the USA, and the Middle East.
Russia’s Role in the Contemporary International Agri-Food Trade System by Stephen K. Wegren,Frode Nilssen Pdf
This Open Access book analyses the emergence of Russia as a global food power and what it means for global food trade. Russia's strategy for food production and trade has changed significantly since the end of the Soviet period, and this is the first book to take account of Russia's rise as a food power and the global implications of that rise. It includes food trade policy and practice, and developments in regional food trade. This book will be of interest to academics and practitioners in agricultural economics, international trade, and international food trade.
Islam in Russia: The Politics of Identity and Security by Shireen Hunter Pdf
This richly detailed study traces the shared history of Russia and Islam in expanding compass - from the Tatar civilization within the Russian heartland, to the conquered territories of the Caucasus and Central Asia, to the larger geopolitical and security context of contemporary Russia on the civilizational divide. The study's distinctive analytical drive stresses political and geopolitical relationships over time and into the very complicated present. Rich with insight, the book is also an incomparable source of factual information about Russia's Muslim populations, religious institutions, political organizations, and ideological movements.
An assessment of Russia that suggests that we should look beyond traditional means of power to understand its strength and capacity to disrupt international politics. Too often, we are told that Russia plays a weak hand well. But, perhaps the nation's cards are better than we know. Russia ranks significantly behind the US and China by traditional measures of power: GDP, population size and health, and military might. Yet 25 years removed from its mid-1990s nadir following the collapse of the USSR, Russia has become a supremely disruptive force in world politics. Kathryn E. Stoner assesses the resurrection of Russia and argues that we should look beyond traditional means of power to assess its strength in global affairs. Taking into account how Russian domestic politics under Vladimir Putin influence its foreign policy, Stoner explains how Russia has battled its way back to international prominence. From Russia's seizure of the Crimea from Ukraine to its military support for the Assad regime in Syria, the country has reasserted itself as a major global power. Stoner examines these developments and more in tackling the big questions about Russia's turnaround and global future. Stoner marshals data on Russia's political, economic, and social development and uncovers key insights from its domestic politics. Russian people are wealthier than the Chinese, debt is low, and fiscal policy is good despite sanctions and the volatile global economy. Vladimir Putin's autocratic regime faces virtually no organized domestic opposition. Yet, mindful of maintaining control at home, Russia under Putin also uses its varied power capacities to extend its influence abroad. While we often underestimate Russia's global influence, the consequences are evident in the disruption of politics in the US, Syria, and Venezuela, to name a few. Russia Resurrected is an eye-opening reassessment of the country, identifying the actual sources of its power in international politics and why it has been able to redefine the post-Cold War global order.
Russia Rising by Dimitar Bechev,Nicu Popescu,Stanislav Secrieru Pdf
The war in Syria has put Russia at the centre of Middle Eastern politics. Moscow's return to the region following a prolonged period of absence has enhanced its geopolitical status at a time it has emerged as a rival to the West. Yet, contrary to the media hype, Vladimir Putin is not set to become the new power-broker in this strategically important part of the world. Co-authored by a team of prominent scholars and analysts from the EU, US, Russia and the Middle East, this book explores Russia's role in the Middle East and North Africa, the diverse drivers shaping its policy, and the response from local players. Chapters map out the history of Russian involvement, before and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the impact on key issues such as security and defence, regional conflicts, arms trade, and energy, as well as relations influential states and country clusters such as Iran, the Gulf, Turkey, Israel, Egypt, and the Maghreb. It also looks at how the Middle East impacts on Russia's relations with the West. The book offers a balanced assessment of Russian influence, highlighting both the political, diplomatic and commercial gains made thanks to Putin's decision in September 2015 to intervene militarily in Syria and the constraints preventing Moscow from replacing the United States as a regional hegemon.
Putin's Russia: Economy, Defence And Foreign Policy by Steven Rosefielde Pdf
This volume seeks to fill the vacuum created by the Joint Economic Committee of Congress's decision to cease publishing comprehensive assessments of Russia's performance and potential. It provides readers with authoritative descriptions of Russia's economy, military prowess and international ambitions. The volume does not settle controversies, but does provide readers with an objective basis for assessing Russia's prospects without the distortions caused by fake news and disinformation wars.
The Routledge Handbook of EU-Russia Relations by Tatiana Romanova,Maxine David Pdf
The Routledge Handbook of EU-Russia Relations offers a comprehensive overview of the changing dynamics in relations between the EU and Russia provided by leading experts in the field. Coherently organised into seven parts, the book provides a structure through which EU-Russia relations can be studied in a comprehensive yet manageable fashion. It provides readers with the tools to deliver critical analysis of this sometimes volatile and polarising relationship, so new events and facts can be conceptualised in an objective and critical manner. Informed by high-quality academic research and key bilateral data/statistics, it further brings scope, balance and depth, with chapters contributed by a range of experts from the EU, Russia and beyond. Chapters deal with a wide range of policy areas and issues that are highly topical and fundamental to understanding the continuing development of EU-Russia relations, such as political and security relations, economic relations, social relations and regional and global governance. The Routledge Handbook of EU-Russia Relations aims to promote dialogue between the different research agendas in EU-Russia relations, as well as between Russian and Western scholars and, hopefully, also between civil societies. As such, it will be an essential reference for scholars, students, researchers, policymakers and journalists interested and working in the fields of Russian politics/studies, EU studies/politics, European politics/studies, post-Communist/post-Soviet politics and international relations. The Routledge Handbook of EU-Russia Relations is part of a mini-series Europe in the World Handbooks examining EU-regional relations established by Professor Wei Shen.
