Macroeconomic Effects Of Reforms On Three Diverse Oil Exporters Russia Saudi Arabia And The Uk

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Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK

Samya Beidas-Strom,Marco Lorusso
Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters Russia Saudi Arabia and the UK Book PDF

Author : Samya Beidas-Strom,Marco Lorusso
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 66 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2019-10-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498320504

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Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK by Samya Beidas-Strom,Marco Lorusso Pdf

We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.

Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK

Samya Beidas-Strom,Marco Lorusso
Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters Russia Saudi Arabia and the UK Book PDF

Author : Samya Beidas-Strom,Marco Lorusso
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 66 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2019-10-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513517186

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Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK by Samya Beidas-Strom,Marco Lorusso Pdf

We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.

Bayesian Econometrics

Mauro Bernardi,Stefano Grassi,Francesco Ravazzolo
Bayesian Econometrics Book PDF

Author : Mauro Bernardi,Stefano Grassi,Francesco Ravazzolo
Publisher : MDPI
Page : 146 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2020-12-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783039437856

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Bayesian Econometrics by Mauro Bernardi,Stefano Grassi,Francesco Ravazzolo Pdf

Since the advent of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the early 1990s, Bayesian methods have been proposed for a large and growing number of applications. One of the main advantages of Bayesian inference is the ability to deal with many different sources of uncertainty, including data, models, parameters and parameter restriction uncertainties, in a unified and coherent framework. This book contributes to this literature by collecting a set of carefully evaluated contributions that are grouped amongst two topics in financial economics. The first three papers refer to macro-finance issues for real economy, including the elasticity of factor substitution (ES) in the Cobb–Douglas production function, the effects of government public spending components, and quantitative easing, monetary policy and economics. The last three contributions focus on cryptocurrency and stock market predictability. All arguments are central ingredients in the current economic discussion and their importance has only been further emphasized by the COVID-19 crisis.

Saudi Arabia

Mr.Ahmed Al-Darwish,Naif Alghaith,Mr.Alberto Behar,Mr.Tim Callen,Mr.Pragyan Deb,Mr.Amgad Hegazy,Padamja Khandelwal,Ms.Malika Pant,Mr.Haonan Qu
Saudi Arabia Book PDF

Author : Mr.Ahmed Al-Darwish,Naif Alghaith,Mr.Alberto Behar,Mr.Tim Callen,Mr.Pragyan Deb,Mr.Amgad Hegazy,Padamja Khandelwal,Ms.Malika Pant,Mr.Haonan Qu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 94 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2015-03-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498327923

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Saudi Arabia by Mr.Ahmed Al-Darwish,Naif Alghaith,Mr.Alberto Behar,Mr.Tim Callen,Mr.Pragyan Deb,Mr.Amgad Hegazy,Padamja Khandelwal,Ms.Malika Pant,Mr.Haonan Qu Pdf

Saudi Arabia: Tackling Emerging Economic Challenges to Sustain Strong Growth

Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices

Mr. Aasim M. Husain,Mr. Rabah Arezki,Mr. Peter Breuer,Mr. Vikram Haksar,Mr. Thomas Helbling,Paulo A. Medas,Martin Sommer
Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices Book PDF

Author : Mr. Aasim M. Husain,Mr. Rabah Arezki,Mr. Peter Breuer,Mr. Vikram Haksar,Mr. Thomas Helbling,Paulo A. Medas,Martin Sommer
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2015-07-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513572277

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Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices by Mr. Aasim M. Husain,Mr. Rabah Arezki,Mr. Peter Breuer,Mr. Vikram Haksar,Mr. Thomas Helbling,Paulo A. Medas,Martin Sommer Pdf

The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.

The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region

Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev,Ling Zhu,Yang Yang,Ms.Tian Zhang,Mr.Erik Roos,Mr.Andrea Pescatori,Mr.Akito Matsumoto
The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region Book PDF

Author : Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev,Ling Zhu,Yang Yang,Ms.Tian Zhang,Mr.Erik Roos,Mr.Andrea Pescatori,Mr.Akito Matsumoto
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 55 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2020-02-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513525907

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The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region by Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev,Ling Zhu,Yang Yang,Ms.Tian Zhang,Mr.Erik Roos,Mr.Andrea Pescatori,Mr.Akito Matsumoto Pdf

The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.

Global Trends 2040

National Intelligence Council
Global Trends 2040 Book PDF

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
Page : 158 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2021-03
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1646794974

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Global Trends 2040 by National Intelligence Council Pdf

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Economic Diversification in Oil-Exporting Arab Countries

International Monetary Fund
Economic Diversification in Oil Exporting Arab Countries Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2016-04-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498345699

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Economic Diversification in Oil-Exporting Arab Countries by International Monetary Fund Pdf

countries face similar challenges to create jobs and foster more inclusive growth. The current environment of likely durable low oil prices has exacerbated these challenges. The non-oil private sector remains relatively small and, consequently, has been only a limited source of growth and employment. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, new sectors need to be developed so they can take over as the oil and gas industry dwindles. Over-reliance on oil also exacerbates macroeconomic volatility. Greater economic diversification would unlock job-creating growth, increase resilience to oil price volatility and improve prospects for future generations. Macro-economic stability and supportive regulatory and institutional frameworks are key prerequisites for economic diversification...

Global Waves of Debt

M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara
Global Waves of Debt Book PDF

Author : M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 403 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2021-03-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464815454

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Global Waves of Debt by M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara Pdf

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Economic Diversification in the GCC

Mr.Tim Callen,Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Mr.Amgad Hegazy,Padamja Khandelwal
Economic Diversification in the GCC Book PDF

Author : Mr.Tim Callen,Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Mr.Amgad Hegazy,Padamja Khandelwal
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2014-12-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498303231

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Economic Diversification in the GCC by Mr.Tim Callen,Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Mr.Amgad Hegazy,Padamja Khandelwal Pdf

Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, success to date has been limited. This paper argues that increased diversification will require realigning incentives for firms and workers in the economies—fixing these incentives is the “missing link” in the GCC countries’ diversification strategies. At present, producing non-tradables is less risky and more profitable for firms as they can benefit from the easy availability of low-wage foreign labor and the rapid growth in government spending, while the continued availability of high-paying and secure public sector jobs discourages nationals from pursuing entrepreneurship and private sector employment. Measures to begin to address these incentive issues could include limiting and reorienting government spending, strengthening private sector competition, providing guarantees and financial support for those firms engaged in export activity, and implementing labor market reforms to make nationals more competitive for private sector employment.

Energy Subsidy Reform

Mr.Benedict J. Clements,Mr.David Coady,Ms.Stefania Fabrizio,Mr.Sanjeev Gupta,Mr.Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne,Mr.Carlo A Sdralevich
Energy Subsidy Reform Book PDF

Author : Mr.Benedict J. Clements,Mr.David Coady,Ms.Stefania Fabrizio,Mr.Sanjeev Gupta,Mr.Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne,Mr.Carlo A Sdralevich
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 390 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2013-09-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484339169

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Energy Subsidy Reform by Mr.Benedict J. Clements,Mr.David Coady,Ms.Stefania Fabrizio,Mr.Sanjeev Gupta,Mr.Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne,Mr.Carlo A Sdralevich Pdf

Energy subsidies are aimed at protecting consumers, however, subsidies aggravate fiscal imbalances, crowd out priority public spending, and depress private investment, including in the energy sector. This book provides the most comprehensive estimates of energy subsidies currently available for 176 countries and an analysis of “how to do” energy subsidy reform, drawing on insights from 22 country case studies undertaken by the IMF staff and analyses carried out by other institutions.

The Saudi Arabian Economy

Mohamed A. Ramady
The Saudi Arabian Economy Book PDF

Author : Mohamed A. Ramady
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 516 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2010-09-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781441959874

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The Saudi Arabian Economy by Mohamed A. Ramady Pdf

The Saudi Arabian economy has changed almost beyond recognition since the oil boom days of the 1980s, and the Kingdom itself has changed too economically, socially, and demographically. In the second edition of The Saudi Arabian Economy, Mohamed Ramady uses several overlapping themes to establish and develop a framework for studying the fundamental challenges to the Saudi economy. Particular attention is paid to the benefits of short-term planning and long-term diversification intended to shield the economy from potentially de-stabilizing oil price fluctuations and the pace and diversity of domestic reforms. The author examines the core strengths and evolution of various financial institutions and the Saudi stock market in the face of globalization, before analyzing the private sector in detail. Topics discussed include: • The hydrocarbon and minerals sector, including the emergence of the competitive petrochemical sector • The impact of small and medium sized businesses and the evolving role of “family” businesses • The growing role of women in the Saudi economy • The role of privatization and FDI as engines of change and the position of public-private-partnerships • The establishment of a foundation for a knowledge-based economy Finally, the author offers an analysis of the key challenges facing the Saudi economy, paying particular attention to the potential costs and benefits of globalization, and membership in the WTO. Employment, education, economic and social stability, and Saudi Arabia’s place in the Gulf Cooperation Council, as well as Saudi Arabia’s evolving strategic economic relations with China and other countries are offered as keys to the consensus building needed to ensure the Kingdom’s healthy economic future.

Saudi Arabia

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Saudi Arabia Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 38 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2019-09-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513513492

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Saudi Arabia by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Pdf

This Selected Issues paper explores policies to drive diversification for Saudi Arabia. Diversification is needed to create jobs for Saudis and to mitigate the impact of uncertainty in oil markets. Although the business climate should be improved, and remaining infrastructure gaps addressed, reforms need to go beyond these areas. Diversification in Saudi Arabia that creates jobs for nationals could be held back by the effects of relatively high wages and their impact on cost competitiveness. Creative solutions are needed to address the impact of high government wages and employment on competitiveness. Industrial policy could help overcome the incentives that encourage companies to focus on the nontradable sector, but should be handled carefully, keeping lessons from other countries’ experiences in mind. Export orientation and competition are crucial mechanisms to ensure discipline. Strengthening human capital to raise productivity and provide workers with the skills needed in the private sector will be essential to success.

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

Mr. Kangni R Kpodar,Boya Liu
The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation Book PDF

Author : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar,Boya Liu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2021-11-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616356156

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The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar,Boya Liu Pdf

This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Diversified Development

Indermit S. Gill,Ivailo Izvorski,Willem van Eeghen,Donato De Rosa
Diversified Development Book PDF

Author : Indermit S. Gill,Ivailo Izvorski,Willem van Eeghen,Donato De Rosa
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 400 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2014-02-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464801204

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Diversified Development by Indermit S. Gill,Ivailo Izvorski,Willem van Eeghen,Donato De Rosa Pdf

Eurasian economies have to become efficient more productive, job-creating, and stable. But efficiency is not the same as diversification. Governments need to worry less about the composition of exports and production and more about asset portfolios natural resources, built capital, and economic institutions.