Second Round Effects Of Oil Price Shocks Implications For Europe S Inflation Outlook

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Second-Round Effects of Oil Price Shocks -- Implications for Europe’s Inflation Outlook

Chikako Baba,Mr. Jaewoo Lee
Second Round Effects of Oil Price Shocks Implications for Europe s Inflation Outlook Book PDF

Author : Chikako Baba,Mr. Jaewoo Lee
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2022-09-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400219351

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Second-Round Effects of Oil Price Shocks -- Implications for Europe’s Inflation Outlook by Chikako Baba,Mr. Jaewoo Lee Pdf

The pass-through effects of oil price shocks on wage and consumer price inflation vary with the states or structural characteristics of an economy. The effects have declined over time in Europe and been higher in emerging European economies than in advanced economies. The pass-through to wages is found to have been higher when the prevailing level of inflation was higher or when the degrees of unionization and centralized bargaining were higher, while lower under a higher credibility of monetary policy. The effects of oil price shocks on core inflation and inflation expectations are consistent with their effects on wages.

International Dimensions of Monetary Policy

Jordi Galí,Mark Gertler
International Dimensions of Monetary Policy Book PDF

Author : Jordi Galí,Mark Gertler
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 663 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2010-03-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226278872

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International Dimensions of Monetary Policy by Jordi Galí,Mark Gertler Pdf

United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.

Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices

Mr. Aasim M. Husain,Mr. Rabah Arezki,Mr. Peter Breuer,Mr. Vikram Haksar,Mr. Thomas Helbling,Paulo A. Medas,Martin Sommer
Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices Book PDF

Author : Mr. Aasim M. Husain,Mr. Rabah Arezki,Mr. Peter Breuer,Mr. Vikram Haksar,Mr. Thomas Helbling,Paulo A. Medas,Martin Sommer
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2015-07-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513572277

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Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices by Mr. Aasim M. Husain,Mr. Rabah Arezki,Mr. Peter Breuer,Mr. Vikram Haksar,Mr. Thomas Helbling,Paulo A. Medas,Martin Sommer Pdf

The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

Mr. Kangni R Kpodar,Boya Liu
The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation Book PDF

Author : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar,Boya Liu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2021-11-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616356156

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The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar,Boya Liu Pdf

This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Inflation Expectations

Peter J. N. Sinclair
Inflation Expectations Book PDF

Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 402 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2009-12-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781135179779

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Inflation Expectations by Peter J. N. Sinclair Pdf

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Oil Prices and the Global Economy

Mr.Rabah Arezki,Zoltan Jakab,Mr.Douglas Laxton,Mr.Akito Matsumoto,Armen Nurbekyan,Hou Wang,Jiaxiong Yao
Oil Prices and the Global Economy Book PDF

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki,Zoltan Jakab,Mr.Douglas Laxton,Mr.Akito Matsumoto,Armen Nurbekyan,Hou Wang,Jiaxiong Yao
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2017-01-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475572360

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Oil Prices and the Global Economy by Mr.Rabah Arezki,Zoltan Jakab,Mr.Douglas Laxton,Mr.Akito Matsumoto,Armen Nurbekyan,Hou Wang,Jiaxiong Yao Pdf

This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.

Inflation in Portugal

Mr. Kamil Dybczak,Mr. Ippei Shibata
Inflation in Portugal Book PDF

Author : Mr. Kamil Dybczak,Mr. Ippei Shibata
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 20 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2023-07-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400247309

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Inflation in Portugal by Mr. Kamil Dybczak,Mr. Ippei Shibata Pdf

This paper examines recent trends, main drivers, and risks to near-term inflation in Portugal. Before the energy crisis, inflation in Portugal was low, often below the Euro Area average, but it accelerated quickly in the second half of 2022. Our estimated Phillips curve regression suggests that, similarly to other Euro Area countries, inflation in Portugal has been largely driven by food and external prices pressures. Inflation is projected to gradually decrease, reflecting receding energy prices and anchored inflation expectations. However, uncertainty remains high and inflation could remain elevated, especially if the inflationary process became backward looking or wage-inflation spirals are induced by pressures from energy prices.

Portugal

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Portugal Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 51 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2023-06-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400246104

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Portugal by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Pdf

Portugal: Selected Issues

The 2020-2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe: A Phillips-Curve-Based Dissection

Chikako Baba,Mr. Romain A Duval,Ting Lan,Petia Topalova
The 2020 2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe A Phillips Curve Based Dissection Book PDF

Author : Chikako Baba,Mr. Romain A Duval,Ting Lan,Petia Topalova
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2023-02-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400234385

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The 2020-2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe: A Phillips-Curve-Based Dissection by Chikako Baba,Mr. Romain A Duval,Ting Lan,Petia Topalova Pdf

In 2021-22, inflation in Europe soared to multidecade highs, consistently exceeding policymakers’ forecasts and surprising with its wide cross-country dispersion. This paper analyzes the key drivers of the inflation surge in Europe and its variation across countries. The analysis highlights significant differences in Phillips curve parameters across Europe’s economies. Inflation is more sensitive to domestic slack and external price pressures in emerging European economies compared to their advanced counterparts, which contributed to a greater passthrough of global commodity price shocks into domestic prices, and, consequently, to larger increases in inflation rates. Across Europe, inflation also appears to have become increasingly backward looking and more sensitive to commodity price shocks since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This finding helps explain why conventional (Phillips curve) inflation models consistently underpredicted the 2021-2022 inflation surge, although it remains too early to conclude there has been a structural break in the inflation process.

Causes and Implications of Elevated Inflation in Cyprus

Robert C. M. Beyer
Causes and Implications of Elevated Inflation in Cyprus Book PDF

Author : Robert C. M. Beyer
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 14 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2023-07-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400247453

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Causes and Implications of Elevated Inflation in Cyprus by Robert C. M. Beyer Pdf

Inflation has risen sharply in Cyprus, initially driven by imported prices, but increasingly broadening to domestic prices. A Phillips Curve estimate attributes the high inflation largely to energy prices, external price pressures, and inflation expectations at the end of 2022. Historically high pass-through of inflation shocks to wages—amplified by a tight labor market—may make inflation persistent. This calls for policies to stem inflationary pressures while protecting vulnerable households.

World Economic Outlook, October 2022

International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
World Economic Outlook October 2022 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 186 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2022-10-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400218439

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World Economic Outlook, October 2022 by International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades. The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024. Monetary policy should stay the course to restore price stability, and fiscal policy should aim to alleviate the cost-of-living pressures while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance aligned with monetary policy. Structural reforms can further support the fight against inflation by improving productivity and easing supply constraints, while multilateral cooperation is necessary for fast-tracking the green energy transition and preventing fragmentation.

Cyprus

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Cyprus Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 51 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2024-05-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400276439

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Cyprus by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Pdf

Cyprus: Selected Issues

Cyprus

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Cyprus Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 22 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2023-06-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400244902

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Cyprus by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Pdf

Cyprus: Selected Issues

How Large and Persistent is the Response of Inflation to Changes in Retail Energy Prices?

Mr.Chadi Abdallah,Mr.Kangni R Kpodar
How Large and Persistent is the Response of Inflation to Changes in Retail Energy Prices Book PDF

Author : Mr.Chadi Abdallah,Mr.Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 31 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2020-06-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513546094

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How Large and Persistent is the Response of Inflation to Changes in Retail Energy Prices? by Mr.Chadi Abdallah,Mr.Kangni R Kpodar Pdf

We estimate the dynamic effects of changes in retail energy prices on inflation using a novel monthly database, covering 110 countries over 2000:M1 to 2016:M6. We find that (i) inflation responds positively to retail energy price shocks, with effects being, on average, modest and transitory. However, our results suggest significant heterogeneity in the response of inflation to these shocks owing to differences in factors related to labor market flexibility, energy intensity, and monetary policy credibility. We also find compelling evidence of asymmetric effects—under sufficiently large shocks—in the case of high-income and low-income countries, with increases in retail fuel prices inducing larger effects on inflation than decreases in fuel prices.

Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation

Alan S. Blinder
Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation Book PDF

Author : Alan S. Blinder
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 244 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2013-09-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781483264561

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Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation by Alan S. Blinder Pdf

Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation discusses the national economic policy and economics as a policy-oriented science. This book summarizes what economists do and do not know about the inflation and recession that affected the U.S. economy during the years of the Great Stagflation in the mid-1970s. The topics discussed include the basic concepts of stagflation, turbulent economic history of 1971-1976, anatomy of the great recession and inflation, and legacy of the Great Stagflation. The relation of wage-price controls, fiscal policy, and monetary policy to the Great Stagflation is also elaborated. This publication is beneficial to economists and students researching on the history of the Great Stagflation and policy errors of the 1970s.