Download Full eBooks in PDF
Self Fulfilling Risk Predictions Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle version is available to download in english. Read online anytime anywhere directly from your device. Click on the download button below to get a free pdf file of Self Fulfilling Risk Predictions book. This book definitely worth reading, it is an incredibly well-written.
Author : Nancy Peregrim Marion,Robert P. Flood
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 58 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 1996
Category : Currency question
ISBN : OCLC:84588934
Author : Mr.Robert P. Flood,Ms.Nancy P. Marion
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 35 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 1998-08-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451854695
The paper shows that changing market beliefs about currency risk can generate a self-fulfilling speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate. The attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profitable. This is illustrated by introducing an endogenous risk premium into a “first-generation model” of a speculative attack. The model is further modified to take account of sterilization, debt-financed fiscal deficits, and anticipatory price-setting behavior. The model is used to interpret the 1994 Mexican peso crisis.
Author : Robert P. Flood
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1291214665
The paper shows that changing market beliefs about currency risk can generate a self-fulfilling speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate. The attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profitable. This is illustrated by introducing an endogenous risk premium into a quot;first-generation modelquot; of a speculative attack. The model is further modified to take account of sterilization, debt-financed fiscal deficits, and anticipatory price-setting behavior. The model is used to interpret the 1994 Mexican peso crisis.
Author : Juan Yepez,Mr.Robert P. Flood,Ms.Nancy P. Marion
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2010-10-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455208920
Currency crises are difficult to predict. It could be that we are choosing the wrong variables or using the wrong models or adopting measurement techniques not up to the task. We set up a Monte Carlo experiment designed to evaluate the measurement techniques. In our study, the methods are given the right fundamentals and the right models and are evaluated on how closely the estimated predictions match the objectively correct predictions. We find that all methods do reasonably well when fundamentals are explosive and all do badly when fundamentals are merely highly volatile.
Author : Uta Kohl,Jacob Eisler
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 333 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2021-07-29
Category : Juvenile Nonfiction
ISBN : 9781108835695
This book critiques the use of algorithms to pre-empt personal choices in its profound effect on markets, democracy and the rule of law.
Author : Aleš Završnik,Vasja Badalič
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 252 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2021-08-19
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9783030732769
This interdisciplinary volume critically explores how the ever-increasing use of automated systems is changing policing, criminal justice systems, and military operations at the national and international level. The book examines the ways in which automated systems are beneficial to society, while addressing the risks they represent for human rights. This book starts with a historical overview of how different types of knowledge have transformed crime control and the security domain, comparing those epistemological shifts with the current shift caused by knowledge produced with high-tech information technology tools such as big data analytics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence. The first part explores the use of automated systems, such as predictive policing and platform policing, in law enforcement. The second part analyzes the use of automated systems, such as algorithms used in sentencing and parole decisions, in courts of law. The third part examines the use and misuse of automated systems for surveillance and social control. The fourth part discusses the use of lethal (semi)autonomous weapons systems in armed conflicts. An essential read for researchers, politicians, and advocates interested in the use and potential misuse of automated systems in crime control, this diverse volume draws expertise from such fields as criminology, law, sociology, philosophy, and anthropology.
Author : Mr.Eduardo Borensztein,Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Andrew Berg
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2000-01-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 155775828X
Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption to other developing countries, and have even had repercussions on advanced economies. To predict crises, their causes must be clearly understood. Two competing strands of theories are reviewed in this paper. The first focuses on the consequences of such policies as excessive credit growth in provoking depletion of foreign exchange reserves and making a devaluation enevitable. The second emphasizes the trade-offs between internal and external balance that the policymaker faces in defending a peg.
Author : Anja Zenker
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 142 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2014-01-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783658048297
Speculative currency crises seem to have become a common and inevitable phenomenon in the international monetary system. Against this background, various approaches have been developed by economists to cover the broad range of situations in which balance-of-payments crises occurred. Anja Zenker provides a comprehensive insight into the body of theoretical and empirical literature about currency speculation in fixed exchange rate regimes. The author discusses different generations of theoretical models and their empirical relevance in recent currency crises. Moreover, she considers diverse policy options which attempt to avoid speculative attacks on exchange rate pegs.
Author : Stacey Hannem,Carrie B. Sanders, Christopher J. Schneider,Aaron Doyle,Tony Christensen
Publisher : Canadian Scholars’ Press
Page : 312 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2019-01-02
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781773380940
Security and Risk Technologies in Criminal Justice takes students through the evolution of risk technology devices, processes, and prevention. This seminal text unpacks technology’s influence on our understanding of governance and social order in areas of criminal justice, policing, and security. With a foreword by leading scholar Kevin Haggerty, the collection consists of three sections that explore the impact of big data, traditional risk practices, and the increased reliance on technology in criminal justice. Eight chapters offer diverse examples that are linked by themes of preventative justice, calculability of risk, the theatre and reality of technology, and the costs of justice. With both national and international appeal, this vital resource is ideal for undergraduate and graduate students in criminology, police studies, or sociology.
Author : Katharina A. Zweig
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 283 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2022-10-25
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780262371865
An expert offers a guide to where we should use artificial intelligence—and where we should not. Before we know it, artificial intelligence (AI) will work its way into every corner of our lives, making decisions about, with, and for us. Is this a good thing? There’s a tendency to think that machines can be more “objective” than humans—can make better decisions about job applicants, for example, or risk assessments. In Awkward Intelligence, AI expert Katharina Zweig offers readers the inside story, explaining how many levers computer and data scientists must pull for AI’s supposedly objective decision making. She presents the good and the bad: AI is good at processing vast quantities of data that humans cannot—but it’s bad at making judgments about people. AI is accurate at sifting through billions of websites to offer up the best results for our search queries and it has beaten reigning champions in games of chess and Go. But, drawing on her own research, Zweig shows how inaccurate AI is, for example, at predicting whether someone with a previous conviction will become a repeat offender. It’s no better than simple guesswork, and yet it’s used to determine people’s futures. Zweig introduces readers to the basics of AI and presents a toolkit for designing AI systems. She explains algorithms, big data, and computer intelligence, and how they relate to one another. Finally, she explores the ethics of AI and how we can shape the process. With Awkward Intelligence. Zweig equips us to confront the biggest question concerning AI: where we should use it—and where we should not.
Author : Paul R Masson
Publisher : World Scientific Publishing Company
Page : 204 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2007-03-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789813101753
This book provides a good basis for a graduate course in international finance. It also serves as a reference source for professional economists. Though other good surveys and handbooks are available, they are too extensive to serve as a graduate textbook. In many cases they are outdated, as there has been an explosion of work on the issues over the last decade, stimulated by events such as the Asian crises of 1997 and 1998, the creation of the Euro zone in 1999, and Argentina's 2001 default. This book covers up-to-date developments on these issues.
Author : Paul R. Masson
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 204 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789812569110
Sixteen-year-old Keysha Kendall is a judge's signature away from foster care when she's sent to live with the father she never knew. Suddenly she has her own room in his big fancy house, a high-powered stepmother and a popular half brother who can introduce her to all the right people at her new school. But Keysha can't forget where she came from. And she won't let anyone else, either. Why should her father and his perfect family have it so easy when she and her mother had it so hard? And so Keysha hooks up with a rough crowd and does whatever she wants'until what she wants changes real fast'.
Author : Ms.Nada Choueiri
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 1999-03-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451844788
This paper proposes a model of contagious currency crises: crises transmit across countries by raising the risk premium on government bonds. Three types of equilibria can occur: a “no-collapse” equilibrium (crises never transmit from abroad); a “collapse” equilibrium (crises are inevitably contagious); or a “fundamentals” equilibrium (crises are contagious if domestic fundamentals are weak). A calibration exercise finds that the 1995 turmoil in Argentina coexisted with a combination of risk-averse investors and weak credibility in the currency board arrangement. This turmoil could only be attributed to a Tequila effect from the Mexican crisis alone if investors were excessively risk-averse.
Author : Adalbert Winkler
Publisher : Springer
Page : 225 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2016-01-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781403907684
At the beginning of the transition process, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe faced the task of creating a functioning financial system where none had existed before. A decade later, high-level practitioners and well-known experts take stock of banking and monetary policy in the region, centring on: the governance of banks; the spread of financial crisis; and, perspectives for monetary policy and banking sector development.
Author : Guillermo A. Calvo,Rudiger Dornbusch,Maurice Obstfeld
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 572 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2004
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0262532603
Essays by leading economists and scholars reflecting on Mundell's broad influence on modern open-economy macroeconomics.