Simplicity Complexity And Modelling

Simplicity Complexity And Modelling Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle version is available to download in english. Read online anytime anywhere directly from your device. Click on the download button below to get a free pdf file of Simplicity Complexity And Modelling book. This book definitely worth reading, it is an incredibly well-written.

Simplicity, Complexity and Modelling

Mike Christie,Andrew Cliffe,Philip Dawid,Stephen S. Senn
Simplicity Complexity and Modelling Book PDF

Author : Mike Christie,Andrew Cliffe,Philip Dawid,Stephen S. Senn
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 285 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2011-10-19
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781119960966

Get Book

Simplicity, Complexity and Modelling by Mike Christie,Andrew Cliffe,Philip Dawid,Stephen S. Senn Pdf

Several points of disagreement exist between different modelling traditions as to whether complex models are always better than simpler models, as to how to combine results from different models and how to propagate model uncertainty into forecasts. This book represents the result of collaboration between scientists from many disciplines to show how these conflicts can be resolved. Key Features: Introduces important concepts in modelling, outlining different traditions in the use of simple and complex modelling in statistics. Provides numerous case studies on complex modelling, such as climate change, flood risk and new drug development. Concentrates on varying models, including flood risk analysis models, the petrol industry forecasts and summarizes the evolution of water distribution systems. Written by experienced statisticians and engineers in order to facilitate communication between modellers in different disciplines. Provides a glossary giving terms commonly used in different modelling traditions. This book provides a much-needed reference guide to approaching statistical modelling. Scientists involved with modelling complex systems in areas such as climate change, flood prediction and prevention, financial market modelling and systems engineering will benefit from this book. It will also be a useful source of modelling case histories.

Environmental Modelling

John Wainwright,Mark Mulligan
Environmental Modelling Book PDF

Author : John Wainwright,Mark Mulligan
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 493 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2013-01-22
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781118351482

Get Book

Environmental Modelling by John Wainwright,Mark Mulligan Pdf

Simulation models are an established method used to investigate processes and solve practical problems in a wide variety of disciplines. Central to the concept of this second edition is the idea that environmental systems are complex, open systems. The authors present the diversity of approaches to dealing with environmental complexity and then encourage readers to make comparisons between these approaches and between different disciplines. Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity 2nd edition is divided into four main sections: An overview of methods and approaches to modelling. State of the art for modelling environmental processes Tools used and models for management Current and future developments. The second edition evolves from the first by providing additional emphasis and material for those students wishing to specialize in environmental modelling. This edition: Focuses on simplifying complex environmental systems. Reviews current software, tools and techniques for modelling. Gives practical examples from a wide variety of disciplines, e.g. climatology, ecology, hydrology, geomorphology and engineering. Has an associated website containing colour images, links to WWW resources and chapter support pages, including data sets relating to case studies, exercises and model animations. This book is suitable for final year undergraduates and postgraduates in environmental modelling, environmental science, civil engineering and biology who will already be familiar with the subject and are moving on to specialize in the field. It is also designed to appeal to professionals interested in the environmental sciences, including environmental consultants, government employees, civil engineers, geographers, ecologists, meteorologists, and geochemists.

Environmental Modelling

John Wainwright,Mark Mulligan
Environmental Modelling Book PDF

Author : John Wainwright,Mark Mulligan
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 432 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2005-04-08
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780470091548

Get Book

Environmental Modelling by John Wainwright,Mark Mulligan Pdf

Simulation models are increasingly used to investigate processes and solve practical problems in a wide variety of disciplines eg. climatology, ecology, hydrology, geomorphology, engineering. Environmental Modelling: A Practical Approach addresses the development, testing and application of such models, which apply across traditional boundaries, and demonstrate how interactions across these boundaries can be beneficial. Provides a general overview of methods and approaches as well as focusing on key subject areas written by leading practitioners in the field Assesses the advantages and disadvantages of different models used and provides case studies supported with data, output, tutorial exercises and links to the model and/or model applications via the book's website Covers major developments in the field, eg. the use of GIS and remote sensing techniques, and scaling issues As associated website contains colour images, as well as links to www resources

Simplicity, Inference and Modelling

Arnold Zellner,Hugo A. Keuzenkamp,Michael McAleer
Simplicity Inference and Modelling Book PDF

Author : Arnold Zellner,Hugo A. Keuzenkamp,Michael McAleer
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 314 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2002-02-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781139432382

Get Book

Simplicity, Inference and Modelling by Arnold Zellner,Hugo A. Keuzenkamp,Michael McAleer Pdf

The idea that simplicity matters in science is as old as science itself, with the much cited example of Ockham's Razor, 'entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem': entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity. A problem with Ockham's razor is that nearly everybody seems to accept it, but few are able to define its exact meaning and to make it operational in a non-arbitrary way. Using a multidisciplinary perspective including philosophers, mathematicians, econometricians and economists, this 2002 monograph examines simplicity by asking six questions: what is meant by simplicity? How is simplicity measured? Is there an optimum trade-off between simplicity and goodness-of-fit? What is the relation between simplicity and empirical modelling? What is the relation between simplicity and prediction? What is the connection between simplicity and convenience? The book concludes with reflections on simplicity by Nobel Laureates in Economics.

ECONOMETRIC MICRO- AND MACROECONOMIC MODELLING IN ROMANIA:FINDING SIMPLICITY IN COMPLEXITY AND GENERATING STATISTICAL SIMPLEXITY

Gheorghe SĂVOIU, Vasile DINU, Emilia GOGU,Hosney ZURUB
ECONOMETRIC MICRO AND MACROECONOMIC MODELLING IN ROMANIA FINDING SIMPLICITY IN COMPLEXITY AND GENERATING STATISTICAL SIMPLEXITY Book PDF

Author : Gheorghe SĂVOIU, Vasile DINU, Emilia GOGU,Hosney ZURUB
Publisher : Infinite Study
Page : 16 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2024-06-15
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

Get Book

ECONOMETRIC MICRO- AND MACROECONOMIC MODELLING IN ROMANIA:FINDING SIMPLICITY IN COMPLEXITY AND GENERATING STATISTICAL SIMPLEXITY by Gheorghe SĂVOIU, Vasile DINU, Emilia GOGU,Hosney ZURUB Pdf

This paper describes, in its introduction, its main objective and some of its investigative premises,emphasizing the need to address micro- and macroeconomic models using the major principles of statistical thinking. A central section is devoted to the concepts of complexity and simplicity, rediscovering the paradox of approaching them simultaneously and the paradigm of simplexity, first formulated by Jeffrey Kluger.

Simplicity is Complex

Hermann Kopetz
Simplicity is Complex Book PDF

Author : Hermann Kopetz
Publisher : Springer
Page : 148 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2019-07-09
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783030204112

Get Book

Simplicity is Complex by Hermann Kopetz Pdf

This book investigates the characteristics of simple versus complex systems, and what the properties of a cyber-physical system design are that contribute to an effective implementation and make the system understandable, simple to use, and easy to maintain. The targeted audience is engineers, managers and advanced students who are involved in the design of cyber-physical systems and are willing to spend some time outside the silo of their daily work in order to widen their background and appreciation for the pervasive problems of system complexity. In the past, design of a process-control system (now called cyber-physical systems) was more of an art than an engineering endeavor. The software technology of that time was concerned primarily with functional correctness and did not pay much attention to the temporal dimension of program execution, which is as important as functional correctness when a physical process must be controlled. In the ensuing years, many problems in the design of cyber-physical systems were simplified. But with an increase in the functional requirements and system size, the complexity problems have appeared again in a different disguise. A sound understanding of the complexity problem requires some insight in cognition, human problem solving, psychology, and parts of philosophy. This book presents the essence of the author’s thinking about complexity, accumulated over the past forty years.

Complexity and Spatial Networks

Aura Reggiani,Peter Nijkamp
Complexity and Spatial Networks Book PDF

Author : Aura Reggiani,Peter Nijkamp
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 283 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2009-08-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783642015540

Get Book

Complexity and Spatial Networks by Aura Reggiani,Peter Nijkamp Pdf

Complex systems analysis has become a fascinating topic in modern research on non-linear dynamics, not only in the physical sciences but also in the life sciences and the social sciences. After the era of bifurcation theory, chaos theory, syn- getics, resilience analysis, network dynamics and evolutionary thinking, currently we observe an increasing interest in critical transitions of dynamic real-world systems in many disciplines, such as demography, biology, psychology, economics, earth sciences, geology, seismology, medical sciences, and so on. The relevance of this approach is clearly re?ected in such phenomena as traf?c congestion, ?nancial crisis, ethnic con?icts, eco-system breakdown, health failures, etc. This has prompted a world-wide interest in complex systems. Geographical space is one of the playgrounds for complex dynamics, as is witnessed by population movements, transport ?ows, retail developments, urban expansion, lowland ?ooding and so forth. All such dynamic phenomena have one feature in common: the low predictability of uncertain interrelated events occurring at different interconnected spatio-temporal scale levels and often originating from different disciplinary backgrounds. The study of the associated non-linear (fast and slow) dynamic transition paths calls for a joint research effort of scientists from different disciplines in order to understand the nature, the roots and the con- quences of unexpected or unpredictable changes in complex spatial systems.

Simplicity in Complexity

Rajesh R. Parwani
Simplicity in Complexity Book PDF

Author : Rajesh R. Parwani
Publisher : Simplicity Research Institute
Page : 140 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2015-01-28
Category : Science
ISBN : 9789810939335

Get Book

Simplicity in Complexity by Rajesh R. Parwani Pdf

How do scientists model crowd behaviour, epidemics, earthquakes or the internet? What can we learn from the collective intelligence and adaptability of an ant colony? This book answers such questions by highlighting common themes in the study of complex systems. Topics covered include self-organisation, emergence, agent-based simulations, complex networks, phase plane plots, fractals, chaos, measures of complexity, model building, and the scientific method. Explanations are simple and concise, with common misconceptions clarified. Numerous exercises help enthusiasts consolidate their understanding through peer learning. Supplementary resources are at the companion websites www.simplicitysg.net/books and www.facebook.com/simcomty.

Deep Simplicity

John Gribbin
Deep Simplicity Book PDF

Author : John Gribbin
Publisher : Penguin UK
Page : 480 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2009-08-27
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780141042213

Get Book

Deep Simplicity by John Gribbin Pdf

'Gribbin takes us through the basics with his customary talent for accessibility and clarity' Sunday Times The world around us can be a complex, confusing place. Earthquakes happen without warning, stock markets fluctuate, weather forecasters seldom seem to get it right - even other people continue to baffle us. How do we make sense of it all? In fact, John Gribbin reveals, our seemingly random universe is actually built on simple laws of cause and effect that can explain why, for example, just one vehicle braking can cause a traffic jam; why wild storms result from a slight atmospheric change; even how we evolved from the most basic materials. Like a zen painting, a fractal image or the pattern on a butterfly's wings, simple elements form the bedrock of a sophisticated whole. Synthesizing chaos and complexity theory for the perplexed, Deep Simplicity brilliantly illuminates the harmony underlying our existence.

Simplicity of Complexity in Economic and Social Systems

Dariusz Grech,Janusz Miśkiewicz
Simplicity of Complexity in Economic and Social Systems Book PDF

Author : Dariusz Grech,Janusz Miśkiewicz
Publisher : Springer
Page : 130 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2021-11-23
Category : Science
ISBN : 3030561623

Get Book

Simplicity of Complexity in Economic and Social Systems by Dariusz Grech,Janusz Miśkiewicz Pdf

This book presents the Proceedings of the 54th Winter School of Theoretical Physics on Simplicity of Complexity in Economic and Social Systems, held in Lądek Zdrój, Poland, from 18 to 24 February 2018. The purpose of the book is to introduce the new interdisciplinary research that links statistical physics, and particular attention is given to link physics of complex systems, with financial analysis and sociology. The main tools used in these areas are numerical simulation of agents behavior and the interpretation of results with the help of complexity methods, therefore a background in statistical physics and in physics of phase transition is necessary to take the first steps towards these research fields called econophysics and sociophysics. In this perspective, the book is intended to graduated students and young researchers who want to begin the study of this established new area, which connects physicists, economists, sociologists and IT professionals, to better understand complexity phenomena existing not only in physics but also in complex systems being seemingly far from traditional view at physics.

Nonlinear Wave Dynamics

J. Engelbrecht
Nonlinear Wave Dynamics Book PDF

Author : J. Engelbrecht
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 197 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2013-04-17
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9789401588911

Get Book

Nonlinear Wave Dynamics by J. Engelbrecht Pdf

At the end of the twentieth century, nonlinear dynamics turned out to be one of the most challenging and stimulating ideas. Notions like bifurcations, attractors, chaos, fractals, etc. have proved to be useful in explaining the world around us, be it natural or artificial. However, much of our everyday understanding is still based on linearity, i. e. on the additivity and the proportionality. The larger the excitation, the larger the response-this seems to be carved in a stone tablet. The real world is not always reacting this way and the additivity is simply lost. The most convenient way to describe such a phenomenon is to use a mathematical term-nonlinearity. The importance of this notion, i. e. the importance of being nonlinear is nowadays more and more accepted not only by the scientific community but also globally. The recent success of nonlinear dynamics is heavily biased towards temporal characterization widely using nonlinear ordinary differential equations. Nonlinear spatio-temporal processes, i. e. nonlinear waves are seemingly much more complicated because they are described by nonlinear partial differential equations. The richness of the world may lead in this case to coherent structures like solitons, kinks, breathers, etc. which have been studied in detail. Their chaotic counterparts, however, are not so explicitly analysed yet. The wavebearing physical systems cover a wide range of phenomena involving physics, solid mechanics, hydrodynamics, biological structures, chemistry, etc.

Mixed Effects Models for Complex Data

Lang Wu
Mixed Effects Models for Complex Data Book PDF

Author : Lang Wu
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 431 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2009-11-11
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 1420074083

Get Book

Mixed Effects Models for Complex Data by Lang Wu Pdf

Although standard mixed effects models are useful in a range of studies, other approaches must often be used in correlation with them when studying complex or incomplete data. Mixed Effects Models for Complex Data discusses commonly used mixed effects models and presents appropriate approaches to address dropouts, missing data, measurement errors, censoring, and outliers. For each class of mixed effects model, the author reviews the corresponding class of regression model for cross-sectional data. An overview of general models and methods, along with motivating examples After presenting real data examples and outlining general approaches to the analysis of longitudinal/clustered data and incomplete data, the book introduces linear mixed effects (LME) models, generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), nonlinear mixed effects (NLME) models, and semiparametric and nonparametric mixed effects models. It also includes general approaches for the analysis of complex data with missing values, measurement errors, censoring, and outliers. Self-contained coverage of specific topics Subsequent chapters delve more deeply into missing data problems, covariate measurement errors, and censored responses in mixed effects models. Focusing on incomplete data, the book also covers survival and frailty models, joint models of survival and longitudinal data, robust methods for mixed effects models, marginal generalized estimating equation (GEE) models for longitudinal or clustered data, and Bayesian methods for mixed effects models. Background material In the appendix, the author provides background information, such as likelihood theory, the Gibbs sampler, rejection and importance sampling methods, numerical integration methods, optimization methods, bootstrap, and matrix algebra. Failure to properly address missing data, measurement errors, and other issues in statistical analyses can lead to severely biased or misleading results. This book explores the biases that arise when naïve methods are used and shows which approaches should be used to achieve accurate results in longitudinal data analysis.

Managing Complexity of Information Systems

Pirmin P. Lemberger,Mederic Morel
Managing Complexity of Information Systems Book PDF

Author : Pirmin P. Lemberger,Mederic Morel
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 168 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2013-01-09
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781118566053

Get Book

Managing Complexity of Information Systems by Pirmin P. Lemberger,Mederic Morel Pdf

This book is about complexity in Information Systems (IS). The subject is addressed from both conceptual and applied perspectives. Concepts are drawn from information theory, industrial design and software engineering. Its content capitalizes on experiences gathered by the authors during various contracting jobs involving software architecture, modeling and IS architecture that were conducted for large organizations in the banking and industry sectors, as well as in the public sector. The authors develop the point of view according to which mastering complexity involves two essential steps: first, one should develop a clear understanding of the real nature of complexity within the IS; second, one should identify the primary causes which contribute to its uncontrolled growth and organize these into a logical framework, in order to define efficient countermeasures. Both technical and psychological causes of complexity are to be considered. Two themes make up the main thread of the book: complexity and value. Both themes are quite common when considered separately, but their interplay remains a largely unexplored topic. The analysis of this interplay is one of the sources of originality of this book.

The Laws of Simplicity

John Maeda
The Laws of Simplicity Book PDF

Author : John Maeda
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 129 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2006-07-07
Category : Design
ISBN : 9780262260954

Get Book

The Laws of Simplicity by John Maeda Pdf

Ten laws of simplicity for business, technology, and design that teach us how to need less but get more. Finally, we are learning that simplicity equals sanity. We're rebelling against technology that's too complicated, DVD players with too many menus, and software accompanied by 75-megabyte "read me" manuals. The iPod's clean gadgetry has made simplicity hip. But sometimes we find ourselves caught up in the simplicity paradox: we want something that's simple and easy to use, but also does all the complex things we might ever want it to do. In The Laws of Simplicity, John Maeda offers ten laws for balancing simplicity and complexity in business, technology, and design—guidelines for needing less and actually getting more. Maeda—a professor in MIT's Media Lab and a world-renowned graphic designer—explores the question of how we can redefine the notion of "improved" so that it doesn't always mean something more, something added on. Maeda's first law of simplicity is "Reduce." It's not necessarily beneficial to add technology features just because we can. And the features that we do have must be organized (Law 2) in a sensible hierarchy so users aren't distracted by features and functions they don't need. But simplicity is not less just for the sake of less. Skip ahead to Law 9: "Failure: Accept the fact that some things can never be made simple." Maeda's concise guide to simplicity in the digital age shows us how this idea can be a cornerstone of organizations and their products—how it can drive both business and technology. We can learn to simplify without sacrificing comfort and meaning, and we can achieve the balance described in Law 10. This law, which Maeda calls "The One," tells us: "Simplicity is about subtracting the obvious, and adding the meaningful."

Simplicity: Ideals of Practice in Mathematics and the Arts

Roman Kossak,Philip Ording
Simplicity Ideals of Practice in Mathematics and the Arts Book PDF

Author : Roman Kossak,Philip Ording
Publisher : Springer
Page : 305 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2017-06-28
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9783319533858

Get Book

Simplicity: Ideals of Practice in Mathematics and the Arts by Roman Kossak,Philip Ording Pdf

To find "criteria of simplicity" was the goal of David Hilbert's recently discovered twenty-fourth problem on his renowned list of open problems given at the 1900 International Congress of Mathematicians in Paris. At the same time, simplicity and economy of means are powerful impulses in the creation of artworks. This was an inspiration for a conference, titled the same as this volume, that took place at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York in April of 2013. This volume includes selected lectures presented at the conference, and additional contributions offering diverse perspectives from art and architecture, the philosophy and history of mathematics, and current mathematical practice.