Stalking The Black Swan

Author : Kenneth A. Posner
Publisher : Columbia University Press
Page : 284 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2010-03-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780231521673

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Stalking the Black Swan by Kenneth A. Posner Pdf

Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal our computers and our minds Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.

Author : Kenneth A. Posner
Publisher : Columbia University Press
Page : 296 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2010
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0231150482

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Stalking the Black Swan by Kenneth A. Posner Pdf

While many books talk about forecasting and decision making, this one is particularly engaging because of Kenneth A. Posner's personal experience - and the honesty with which he discusses it. As a longtime analyst at Morgan Stanley, Posner had to make decisions about whether to invest in many recent high-profile, high-stakes "Black Swan" anomalies. He explains general models and approaches to dealing with uncertainty, sorting information, and developing your analytical skills and judgment. That alone is worthwhile, but the book is especially lively when Posner reviews his specific decisions. He shares his reasoning and exposes his successes and his failures to public view. The result is a knowledge-dense but very readable work that getAbstract recommends to all analysts, but also to those who want to deal with information overload and improve their decision making.

Author : Luca Podofillini,Bruno Sudret,Bozidar Stojadinovic,Enrico Zio,Wolfgang Kröger
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 730 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2015-09-03
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781315648415

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Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems by Luca Podofillini,Bruno Sudret,Bozidar Stojadinovic,Enrico Zio,Wolfgang Kröger Pdf

Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems contains the Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015, held 7-10 September 2015 in Zurich, Switzerland. It includes about 570 papers accepted for presentation at the conference. These contributions focus on theories and methods in the area of risk, safety and

Author : Robert A. Prentky,Howard E. Barbaree,Eric S. Janus
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 400 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2015-06-26
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781136016721

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Sexual Predators by Robert A. Prentky,Howard E. Barbaree,Eric S. Janus Pdf

Convicted sex offenders released from custody at the end of their criminal sentences pose a risk for re-offense. In many US states, Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) laws have been enacted that allow for the post-prison preventive detention of high risk sex offenders. SVP laws require the courts to make dispositions that protect the public from harm while at the same time respecting the civil rights of the offender. This book describes these SVP laws, their constitutionality, and aspects of their operation. Courts hear expert risk testimony based heavily on the results of actuarial risk assessment. Problems associated with this testimony include the lack of a theory of recidivism risk, bias due to human decision-making, and the insularity of scholarship and practice along developmental lines. The authors propose changes in legal standards, as well as a unified developmental model that treats sexual violence as an "evolving" condition, with roots traceable to childhood and paths that extend into adolescence and adulthood.

Author : Manuel Graña
Publisher : IOS Press
Page : 2307 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2012
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781614991045

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Advances in Knowledge-Based and Intelligent Information and Engineering Systems by Manuel Graña Pdf

In this 2012 edition of Advances in Knowledge-Based and Intelligent Information and Engineering Systems the latest innovations and advances in Intelligent Systems and related areas are presented by leading experts from all over the world. The 228 papers that are included cover a wide range of topics. One emphasis is on Information Processing, which has become a pervasive phenomenon in our civilization. While the majority of Information Processing is becoming intelligent in a very broad sense, major research in Semantics, Artificial Intelligence and Knowledge Engineering supports the domain specific applications that are becoming more and more present in our everyday living. Ontologies play a major role in the development of Knowledge Engineering in various domains, from Semantic Web down to the design of specific Decision Support Systems. Research on Ontologies and their applications is a highly active front of current Computational Intelligence science that is addressed here. Other subjects in this volume are modern Machine Learning, Lattice Computing and Mathematical Morphology.The wide scope and high quality of these contributions clearly show that knowledge engineering is a continuous living and evolving set of technologies aimed at improving the design and understanding of systems and their relations with humans.

Author : Ngoc Thanh Nguyen,Ryszard Kowalczyk,Jacek Mercik,Anna Motylska-Kuźma
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 193 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2019-10-31
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783662605554

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Transactions on Computational Collective Intelligence XXXIV by Ngoc Thanh Nguyen,Ryszard Kowalczyk,Jacek Mercik,Anna Motylska-Kuźma Pdf

These transactions publish research in computer-based methods of computational collective intelligence (CCI) and their applications in a wide range of fields such as performance optimization in IoT, big data, reliability, privacy, security, service selection, QoS and machine learning. This thirty-fourth issue contains 12 selected papers which present new findings and innovative methodologies as well as discuss issues and challenges in the field of collective intelligence in group decision making with special emphasize given to voting theory, power indices and graphs while addressing elections, social choices, IoT and allocation algorithms.

Author : Nathan Edmonson
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 184 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2017-09-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781351486736

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Technology Cycles and U.S. Economic Policy in the Early 21st Century by Nathan Edmonson Pdf

The overarching theme of this volume is the cyclical nature of technological change, its impact on economic growth, and the limits of government intervention. Technological revolutions are infrequent; there were only three in all of the twentieth century. When they occur, their possibilities are often not immediately apparent. Technology revolutions induce capital investment, not just because they stimulate the need to acquire the new technology, but also because of the need to replace obsolete capacity and new infrastructure. While government has encouraged general economic progress by carrying out highly risky innovations unrelated to fostering economic growth, it seldom succeeds with specific efforts to foster growth. Recent examples of success include the Internet and the global positioning system (GPS), which trace their origins to defense-related research. In contrast, the countercyclical economic stimuli of 2007-2009 have achieved little in the way of general growth. The lack of data about the technology cycle makes formulating appropriate monetary and other policy countercyclical interventions difficult. A technology-founded upswing animated the American economy after 1990, and the -great recession- of 2007- 2009 reflected the waning of the investment boom that this revolution generated. Edmonson argues that the impact of technology revolutions on general economic growth has never received the attention it deserves. This volume will contribute much to debates on economic policy.

Author : Various
Publisher : Read Books Ltd
Page : 124 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2017-09-29
Category : Sports & Recreation
ISBN : 9781473343405

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Red Deer Stalking at Home and Abroad by Various Pdf

"Red Deer Stalking at Home and Abroad" is a collection of essays, articles, and personal experiences related to hunting red deer, written by various authors. Full of interesting information and entertaining stories, this volume is not to be missed by modern hunters and collectors of vintage sporting literature. Contents include: "An American's Impressions of Deer-Stalking in Scotland, by Charles W. Ogden", "The Future of Deerstalking", "The Red Deer in England", "The Red Deer in New Zealand", "The Stag That Escaped", "The Sportsman as an Empire Builder", "The Deer Forests of Scotland", etc. Many vintage books such as this are becoming increasingly scarce and expensive. We are republishing this volume now in a modern, high-quality edition complete with a specially commissioned new introduction on deer stalking and hunting.

Author : Philippa Carr
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 350 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 1990-06-01
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 0792483804

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The Black Swam by Philippa Carr Pdf

Author : Walter Effross
Publisher : Aspen Publishing
Page : 814 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2014-12-09
Category : Law
ISBN : 9781454835202

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Corporate Governance by Walter Effross Pdf

Walter Effross is a superb teacher and succeeds in making a sometimes dry subject interesting to students. Corporate Governance contrasts schools of thought, explaining the conflicts between such theories as contractarianism and communitarianism, and such emerging academic approaches as empiricism and behavioral economics. The text includes excerpts from only the most important sections of judicial decisions along with their relevant factual and procedural context. Extensive notes address the reactions to decisions from other courts, commentators, counsel, and executives. Dozens of examples ripped from the headlines, excerpted from actual corporate documents, and drawn from popular culture illustrate key principles and spark class discussions. More than one hundred suggestions for paper topics are especially useful for participants in research and writing seminars. An appendix categorizes and details more than eighty separate initiatives that shareholder activists and commentators have proposed. A wide range of excerpts from corporate documents and court decisions interpreting these materials help students translate the caselaw and learn drafting techniques. The Second Edition reflects legislative, regulatory, judicial, and Fortune 500 developments since mid-2009 as well as new examples from corporate documents, the Great Books, and popular culture. Detailed coverage of new and emerging topics includes discussion of the governance of nonprofit corporations the emerging types of social enterprises such as benefit corporations, B corporations, and flexible purpose corporations; the board s responsibility to rein in the cyber-risks raised by hackers, e-mails, Web sites, and social media; and the implications for directors, officers, and counsel of new research on avoiding common cognitive traps that compromise decision-making in situations of risk and uncertainty. The Second Edition explores governance changes wrought by the financial crisis and reform legislation; the responsible corporate officer doctrine, the honest services doctrine, and other theories of executive liability; issues raised by crowdfunding ; and the consequences of the Citizens United decision removing limits on companies independent political expenditures. New appendices give detailed advice on identifying, developing, refining, and researching topics for articles and on using the publishing process to invigorate one s professional network and career.

Author : Dale Lehman,Huybert Groenendaal,Greg Nolder
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 284 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2016-04-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781439855546

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Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management by Dale Lehman,Huybert Groenendaal,Greg Nolder Pdf

Risk analytics is developing rapidly, and analysts in the field need material that is theoretically sound as well as practical and straightforward. A one-stop resource for quantitative risk analysis, Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management dispenses with the use of complex mathematics, concentrating on how powerful techniques and methods

Author : Thomas E. Berghage
Publisher : Xlibris Corporation
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2014-07-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781499049060

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Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond by Thomas E. Berghage Pdf

For years, financial analysts have struggled with the fact that practically all the financial measures used to analyze corporate performance lack predictive power when it comes to forecasting the market performance of the company's stock. Numerous academic studies have documented and reported this lack of predictability. Correlation coefficients close to zero have been reported for the relationship between stock market performance and such critical financial measures as earnings growth, sales growth, price/earnings ratio, return on equity, intrinsic value (models based on discounted cash flow or dividends), and many more. It is this disconnect between traditional financial measures and the performance of stocks in the marketplace that has led to the now-famous efficient market hypothesis, the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory. To accept the idea that the future performance of stocks is unpredictable is to say that nothing a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market, and that is absurd. It would be more accurate to say that everything a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market. The problem with this statement is that it makes the forecasting of future stock performance so complex that it removes it from the realm of human solution.

Author : Andrea Penrose
Publisher : Kensington Books
Page : 369 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2017-06-27
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 9781496710789

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Murder on Black Swan Lane by Andrea Penrose Pdf

In Regency London, an unconventional scientist and a fearless female artist team up to trap a cold-hearted killer: “Thoroughly enjoyable” (Deanna Raybourn, New York Times–bestselling author). The Earl of Wrexford possesses a brilliant scientific mind, but boredom and pride lead him to reckless behavior. So when pompous, pious Reverend Josiah Holworthy publicly condemns him for debauchery, Wrexford unsheathes his rapier-sharp wit and strikes back. As their war of words escalates, London’s most popular satirical cartoonist, A.J. Quill, skewers them both. But then the clergyman is found slain in a church—his face burned by chemicals, his throat slashed ear to ear—and Wrexford finds himself the chief suspect. An artist in her own right, Charlotte Sloane has secretly slipped into the persona of her late husband, using his nom de plume, A.J. Quill. When Wrexford discovers her true identity, she fears it will be her undoing. But he has a proposal—use her sources to unveil the clergyman’s clandestine involvement in questionable scientific practices, and unmask the real murderer. Soon Lord Wrexford and the mysterious Mrs. Sloane plunge into a dangerous shadow world hidden among London’s intellectual enclaves to trap a cunning adversary—before they fall victim to the next experiment in villainy . . . “Sharp, engaging characters, rich period detail, and a compellingly twisty plot, Andrea Penrose delivers a winner.” —Deanna Raybourn, New York Times–bestselling author “Fans of C.S. Harris take note! A riveting ride through Regency London, from the slums of St. Giles, to the mansions of Mayfair.” —Lauren Willig, New York Times–bestselling author “Historical chemistry meets alchemy . . . A delight of a book.&rdquo

Author : Gordon Woo
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 368 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781848167384

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Calculating Catastrophe by Gordon Woo Pdf

Calculating Catastrophe has been written to explain, to a general readership, the underlying philosophical ideas and scientific principles that govern catastrophic events, both natural and man-made. Knowledge of the broad range of catastrophes deepens understanding of individual modes of disaster. This book will be of interest to anyone aspiring to understand catastrophes better, but will be of particular value to those engaged in public and corporate policy, and the financial markets.The author, Dr. Gordon Woo, was trained in mathematical physics at Cambridge, MIT and Harvard, and has made his career as a calculator of catastrophes. His diverse experience includes consulting for IAEA on the seismic safety of nuclear plants and for BP on offshore oil well drilling. As a catastrophist at Risk Management Solutions, he has advanced the insurance modelling of catastrophes, including designing a model for terrorism risk.

Author : Dale Lehman,Huybert Groenendaal
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 572 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2019-11-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780429509322

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Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using @Risk by Dale Lehman,Huybert Groenendaal Pdf

Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using @Risk provides a guide of how to construct applied decision analysis models in spreadsheets. The focus is on the use of Monte Carlo simulation to provide quantitative assessment of uncertainties and key risk drivers. The book presents numerous examples based on real data and relevant practical decisions in a variety of settings, including health care, transportation, finance, natural resources, technology, manufacturing, retail, and sports and entertainment. All examples involve decision problems where uncertainties make simulation modeling useful to obtain decision insights and explore alternative choices. Good spreadsheet modeling practices are highlighted. The book is suitable for graduate students or advanced undergraduates in business, public policy, health care administration, or any field amenable to simulation modeling of decision problems. The book is also useful for applied practitioners seeking to build or enhance their spreadsheet modeling skills. Features Step-by-step examples of spreadsheet modeling and risk analysis in a variety of fields Description of probabilistic methods, their theoretical foundations, and their practical application in a spreadsheet environment Extensive example models and exercises based on real data and relevant decision problems Comprehensive use of the @Risk software for simulation analysis, including a free one-year educational software license