Statistical Analysis Of Natural Disasters And Related Losses

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Statistical Analysis of Natural Disasters and Related Losses

V.F. Pisarenko,M.V. Rodkin
Statistical Analysis of Natural Disasters and Related Losses Book PDF

Author : V.F. Pisarenko,M.V. Rodkin
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 89 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2013-09-11
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9783319014548

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Statistical Analysis of Natural Disasters and Related Losses by V.F. Pisarenko,M.V. Rodkin Pdf

The study of disaster statistics and disaster occurrence is a complicated interdisciplinary field involving the interplay of new theoretical findings from several scientific fields like mathematics, physics, and computer science. Statistical studies on the mode of occurrence of natural disasters largely rely on fundamental findings in the statistics of rare events, which were derived in the 20th century. With regard to natural disasters, it is not so much the fact that the importance of this problem for mankind was recognized during the last third of the 20th century - the myths one encounters in ancient civilizations show that the problem of disasters has always been recognized - rather, it is the fact that mankind now possesses the necessary theoretical and practical tools to effectively study natural disasters, which in turn supports effective, major practical measures to minimize their impact. All the above factors have resulted in considerable progress in natural disaster research. Substantial accrued material on natural disasters and the use of advanced recording techniques have opened new doors for empirical analysis. However, despite the considerable progress made, the situation is still far from ideal. Sufficiently complete catalogs of events are still not available for many types of disasters, and the methodological and even terminological bases of research need to be further developed and standardized. The present monograph summarizes recent advances in the field of disaster statistics, primarily focusing on the occurrence of disasters that can be described by distributions with heavy tails. These disasters typically occur on a very broad range of scales, the rare greatest events being capable of causing losses comparable to the total losses of all smaller disasters of the same type. Audience: This SpringerBrief will be a valuable resource for those working in the fields of natural disaster research, risk assessment and loss mitigation at regional and federal governing bodies and in the insurance business, as well as for a broad range of readers interested in problems concerning natural disasters and their effects on human life.

Heavy-Tailed Distributions in Disaster Analysis

V. Pisarenko,M. Rodkin
Heavy Tailed Distributions in Disaster Analysis Book PDF

Author : V. Pisarenko,M. Rodkin
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 199 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2010-07-20
Category : Science
ISBN : 9789048191710

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Heavy-Tailed Distributions in Disaster Analysis by V. Pisarenko,M. Rodkin Pdf

Mathematically, natural disasters of all types are characterized by heavy tailed distributions. The analysis of such distributions with common methods, such as averages and dispersions, can therefore lead to erroneous conclusions. The statistical methods described in this book avoid such pitfalls. Seismic disasters are studied, primarily thanks to the availability of an ample statistical database. New approaches are presented to seismic risk estimation and forecasting the damage caused by earthquakes, ranging from typical, moderate events to very rare, extreme disasters. Analysis of these latter events is based on the limit theorems of probability and the duality of the generalized Pareto distribution and generalized extreme value distribution. It is shown that the parameter most widely used to estimate seismic risk – Mmax, the maximum possible earthquake value – is potentially non-robust. Robust analogues of this parameter are suggested and calculated for some seismic catalogues. Trends in the costs inferred by damage from natural disasters as related to changing social and economic situations are examined for different regions. The results obtained argue for sustainable development, whereas entirely different, incorrect conclusions can be drawn if the specific properties of the heavy-tailed distribution and change in completeness of data on natural hazards are neglected. This pioneering work is directed at risk assessment specialists in general, seismologists, administrators and all those interested in natural disasters and their impact on society.

The Impacts of Natural Disasters

National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Committee on Assessing the Costs of Natural Disasters
The Impacts of Natural Disasters Book PDF

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Committee on Assessing the Costs of Natural Disasters
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 80 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 1999-05-06
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309063944

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The Impacts of Natural Disasters by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Committee on Assessing the Costs of Natural Disasters Pdf

We in the United States have almost come to accept natural disasters as part of our nation's social fabric. News of property damage, economic and social disruption, and injuries follow earthquakes, fires, floods and hurricanes. Surprisingly, however, the total losses that follow these natural disasters are not consistently calculated. We have no formal system in either the public or private sector for compiling this information. The National Academies recommends what types of data should be assembled and tracked.

The Impacts of Natural Disasters

National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Committee on Assessing the Costs of Natural Disasters
The Impacts of Natural Disasters Book PDF

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Committee on Assessing the Costs of Natural Disasters
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 80 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 1999-04-06
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309184540

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The Impacts of Natural Disasters by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Committee on Assessing the Costs of Natural Disasters Pdf

We in the United States have almost come to accept natural disasters as part of our nation's social fabric. News of property damage, economic and social disruption, and injuries follow earthquakes, fires, floods and hurricanes. Surprisingly, however, the total losses that follow these natural disasters are not consistently calculated. We have no formal system in either the public or private sector for compiling this information. The National Academies recommends what types of data should be assembled and tracked.

Human Cost of Disasters

United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
Human Cost of Disasters Book PDF

Author : United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
Publisher : United Nations
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2020-11-03
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789210054478

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Human Cost of Disasters by United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction Pdf

The last twenty years has seen the number of major floods more than double, from 1,389 to 3,254, while the incidence of storms grew from 1,457 to 2,034. Floods and storms were the most prevalent events. The report “The Human Cost of Disasters 2000-2019” also records major increases in other categories including drought, wildfires and extreme temperature events. There has also been a rise in geo-physical events including earthquakes and tsunamis which have killed more people than any of the other natural hazards under review in this report.

Macroeconomic Risk Management Against Natural Disasters

Stefan Hochrainer
Macroeconomic Risk Management Against Natural Disasters Book PDF

Author : Stefan Hochrainer
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 213 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2007-12-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783835094413

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Macroeconomic Risk Management Against Natural Disasters by Stefan Hochrainer Pdf

Stefan Hochrainer develops a catastrophe risk management model. It illustrates which trade-offs and choices a country must make in managing economic risks due to natural disasters. Budgetary resources are allocated to pre-disaster risk management strategies to reduce the probability of financing gaps. The framework and model approach allows cross country comparisons as well as the assessment of financial vulnerability, macroeconomic risk, and risk management strategies. Three case studies demonstrate its flexibility and coherent approach.

The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters

Debarati Guha-Sapir,Indhira Santos,Alexandre Borde
The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters Book PDF

Author : Debarati Guha-Sapir,Indhira Santos,Alexandre Borde
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 341 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2013-05-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780199841936

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The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters by Debarati Guha-Sapir,Indhira Santos,Alexandre Borde Pdf

This work combines research and empirical evidence on the economic costs of disasters with theoretical approaches. It provides new insights on how to assess and manage the costs and impacts of disaster prevention, mitigation, recovery and adaption, and much more.

Natural Disasters and Climate Change

Stéphane Hallegatte
Natural Disasters and Climate Change Book PDF

Author : Stéphane Hallegatte
Publisher : Springer
Page : 194 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2014-09-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319089331

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Natural Disasters and Climate Change by Stéphane Hallegatte Pdf

This book explores economic concepts related to disaster losses, describes mechanisms that determine the economic consequences of a disaster, and reviews methodologies for making decisions regarding risk management and adaptation. The author addresses the need for better understanding of the consequences of disasters and reviews and analyzes three scientific debates on linkage between disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change. The first involves the existence and magnitude of long-term economic impact of natural disasters on development. The second is the disagreement over whether any development is the proper solution to high vulnerability to disaster risk. The third debate involves the difficulty of drawing connections between natural disasters and climate change and the challenge in managing them through an integrated strategy. The introduction describes economic views of disaster, including direct and indirect costs, output and welfare losses, and use of econometric tools to measure losses. The next section defines disaster risk, delineates between “good” and “bad” risk-taking, and discusses a pathway to balanced growth. A section entitled “Trends in Hazards and the Role of Climate Change” sets scenarios for climate change analysis, discusses statistical and physical models for downscaling global climate scenarios to extreme event scenarios, and considers how to consider extremes of hot and cold, storms, wind, drought and flood. Another section analyzes case studies on hurricanes and the US coastline; sea-level rises and storm surge in Copenhagen; and heavy precipitation in Mumbai. A section on Methodologies for disaster risk management includes a study on cost-benefit analysis of coastal protections in New Orleans, and one on early-warning systems in developing countries. The next section outlines decision-making in disaster risk management, including robust decision-making, No-regret and No-risk strategies; and strategies that reduce time horizons for decision-making. Among the conclusions is the assertion that risk management policies must recognize the benefits of risk-taking and avoid suppressing it entirely. The main message is that a combination of disaster-risk-reduction, resilience-building and adaptation policies can yield large potential gains and synergies.

Natural Disaster Hotspots

Maxx Dilley
Natural Disaster Hotspots Book PDF

Author : Maxx Dilley
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 148 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Hazardous geographic environments
ISBN : 9780821359303

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Natural Disaster Hotspots by Maxx Dilley Pdf

This synthesis summarizes the findings of the Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots project. The Hotspots project generated a global disaster risk assessment and a set of more localized or hazard-specific case studies. The synthesis draws primarily from the results of the global assessment. Full details on the data, methods and results of the global analysis can be found in volume one of Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis. The case studies are contained in volume two (forthcoming).

Flood Damage Survey and Assessment

Daniela Molinari,Scira Menoni,Francesco Ballio
Flood Damage Survey and Assessment Book PDF

Author : Daniela Molinari,Scira Menoni,Francesco Ballio
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2017-07-06
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781119217947

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Flood Damage Survey and Assessment by Daniela Molinari,Scira Menoni,Francesco Ballio Pdf

Floods can have a devastating impact on life, property and economic resources. However, the systematic collection of damage data in the aftermath of flood events can contribute to future risk mitigation. Such data can support a variety of actions including the identification of priorities for intervention during emergencies, the creation of complete event scenarios to tailor risk mitigation strategies, the definition of victim compensation schemes, and the validation of damage models to feed cost-benefit analysis of mitigation actions. Volume highlights include: • Compilation of real world case studies elaborating on the survey experiences and best practices associated with flood damage data collection, storage and analysis, that can help strategize flood risk mitigation in an efficient manner • Coverage of different flooding phenomena such as riverine and mountain floods, spatial analysis from local to global scales, and stakeholder perspectives, e.g. public decision makers, researchers, private companies • Contributions from leading experts in the field, researchers and practitioners, including civil protection actors working at different spatial and administrative level, insurers, and professionals working in the field of natural hazard risks mitigation Flood Damage Survey and Assessment: New Insights from Research and Practice will be a valuable resource for earth scientists, hydrologists, meteorologists, geologists, geographers, civil engineers, insurers, policy makers, and planners. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/the-value-of-disaster-damage-data

A Safer Future

National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,U.S. National Committee for the Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction
A Safer Future Book PDF

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,U.S. National Committee for the Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 85 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 1991-02-01
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309045469

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A Safer Future by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,U.S. National Committee for the Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction Pdf

Initial priorities for U.S. participation in the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, declared by the United Nations, are contained in this volume. It focuses on seven issues: hazard and risk assessment; awareness and education; mitigation; preparedness for emergency response; recovery and reconstruction; prediction and warning; learning from disasters; and U.S. participation internationally. The committee presents its philosophy of calls for broad public and private participation to reduce the toll of disasters.

At Risk

Piers Blaikie,Terry Cannon,Ian Davis,Ben Wisner
At Risk Book PDF

Author : Piers Blaikie,Terry Cannon,Ian Davis,Ben Wisner
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 492 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2014-01-21
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781134528615

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At Risk by Piers Blaikie,Terry Cannon,Ian Davis,Ben Wisner Pdf

The term 'natural disaster' is often used to refer to natural events such as earthquakes, hurricanes or floods. However, the phrase 'natural disaster' suggests an uncritical acceptance of a deeply engrained ideological and cultural myth. At Risk questions this myth and argues that extreme natural events are not disasters until a vulnerable group of people is exposed. The updated new edition confronts a further ten years of ever more expensive and deadly disasters and discusses disaster not as an aberration, but as a signal failure of mainstream 'development'. Two analytical models are provided as tools for understanding vulnerability. One links remote and distant 'root causes' to 'unsafe conditions' in a 'progression of vulnerability'. The other uses the concepts of 'access' and 'livelihood' to understand why some households are more vulnerable than others. Examining key natural events and incorporating strategies to create a safer world, this revised edition is an important resource for those involved in the fields of environment and development studies.

Reducing Disaster Losses Through Better Information

National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Board on Natural Disasters
Reducing Disaster Losses Through Better Information Book PDF

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Board on Natural Disasters
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 72 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 1999-01-22
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309173452

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Reducing Disaster Losses Through Better Information by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Board on Natural Disasters Pdf

Losses of life and property from natural disasters in the United States-and throughout the world-have been enormous and the potential for substantially greater future losses looms. It is clearly in the public interest to reduce these impacts and to encourage the development of communities that are resilient to disasters. This goal can be achieved through wise and sustained efforts involving mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. Implementing such efforts, particularly in the face of limited resources and competing priorities, requires accurate information that is presented in a timely and appropriate manner to facilitate informed decisions. Substantial information already exists that could be used to this end, but there are numerous obstacles to accessing this information, and methods for integrating information from a variety of sources for decision-making are presently inadequate. Implementation of an improved national or international network for making better information available in a more timely manner could substantially improve the situation. As noted in the Preface, a federal transition team is considering the issues and needs associated with implementing a global or national disaster information network as described in the report by the Disaster Information Task Force (1997). This National Research Council report was commissioned by the transition team to provide advice on how a disaster information network could best make information available to improve decision making, with the ultimate goal of reducing losses from natural disasters. The report is intended to provide the basis for a better appreciation of which types of data and information should be generated in an information program and how this information could best be disseminated to decision makers.

Extreme and Systemic Risk Analysis

Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
Extreme and Systemic Risk Analysis Book PDF

Author : Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 166 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2020
Category : Risk assessment
ISBN : 9811526907

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Extreme and Systemic Risk Analysis by Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler Pdf

This book is about how extreme and systemic risk can be analyzed in an integrated way. Risk analysis is understood to include measurement, assessment as well as management aspects. Integration is understood as being able to perform risk analysis for extreme and systemic events simultaneously. The presented approach is based on Sklar's theorem, which states that a multivariate distribution can be separated into two parts - one describing the marginal distributions and the other describing the dependency between the distributions using a so-called copula. It is suggested to reinterpret Sklar's theorem from a system or network perspective, treating copulas as a network property and individual, including extreme, risk as elements within the network. In that way, extreme and systemic risk can be analyzed independently as well as jointly across several scales. The book is intended for a large audience, and all techniques presented are guided with examples and applications with a special focus on natural disaster events. Furthermore, an extensive literature and discussion of it are given in each chapter for the interested reader.

Thirty Years of Natural Disasters 1974-2003: The Numbers

Debarati Guha-Sapir,David Hargitt,Philippe Hoyois
Thirty Years of Natural Disasters 1974 2003 The Numbers Book PDF

Author : Debarati Guha-Sapir,David Hargitt,Philippe Hoyois
Publisher : Presses univ. de Louvain
Page : 196 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2004
Category : History
ISBN : 2930344717

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Thirty Years of Natural Disasters 1974-2003: The Numbers by Debarati Guha-Sapir,David Hargitt,Philippe Hoyois Pdf

Over the last 30 years, 6,367 natural disasters killed more than 2 million people. A cumulative total of 5.1 billion individuals were affected, of which 182 million were left homeless.These same disasters caused US$1.4 trillion worth of damages. Data on natural disasters and their impact on populations and economies play an essential role in understanding the factors that increase human vulnerability and the importance of disaster preparedness, mitigation and prevention.