Statistical Decision Theory

Author : John Pratt,Howard Raiffa,Robert Schlaifer
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2008-01-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262662062

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Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory by John Pratt,Howard Raiffa,Robert Schlaifer Pdf

The Bayesian revolution in statistics—where statistics is integrated with decision making in areas such as management, public policy, engineering, and clinical medicine—is here to stay. Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory states the case and in a self-contained, comprehensive way shows how the approach is operational and relevant for real-world decision making under uncertainty. Starting with an extensive account of the foundations of decision theory, the authors develop the intertwining concepts of subjective probability and utility. They then systematically and comprehensively examine the Bernoulli, Poisson, and Normal (univariate and multivariate) data generating processes. For each process they consider how prior judgments about the uncertain parameters of the process are modified given the results of statistical sampling, and they investigate typical decision problems in which the main sources of uncertainty are the population parameters. They also discuss the value of sampling information and optimal sample sizes given sampling costs and the economics of the terminal decision problems. Unlike most introductory texts in statistics, Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory integrates statistical inference with decision making and discusses real-world actions involving economic payoffs and risks. After developing the rationale and demonstrating the power and relevance of the subjective, decision approach, the text also examines and critiques the limitations of the objective, classical approach.

Author : James Berger
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 440 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2013-04-17
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781475717273

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Statistical Decision Theory by James Berger Pdf

Decision theory is generally taught in one of two very different ways. When of opti taught by theoretical statisticians, it tends to be presented as a set of mathematical techniques mality principles, together with a collection of various statistical procedures. When useful in establishing the optimality taught by applied decision theorists, it is usually a course in Bayesian analysis, showing how this one decision principle can be applied in various practical situations. The original goal I had in writing this book was to find some middle ground. I wanted a book which discussed the more theoretical ideas and techniques of decision theory, but in a manner that was constantly oriented towards solving statistical problems. In particular, it seemed crucial to include a discussion of when and why the various decision prin ciples should be used, and indeed why decision theory is needed at all. This original goal seemed indicated by my philosophical position at the time, which can best be described as basically neutral. I felt that no one approach to decision theory (or statistics) was clearly superior to the others, and so planned a rather low key and impartial presentation of the competing ideas. In the course of writing the book, however, I turned into a rabid Bayesian. There was no single cause for this conversion; just a gradual realization that things seemed to ultimately make sense only when looked at from the Bayesian viewpoint.

Author : James O. Berger
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 633 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2013-03-14
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781475742862

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Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis by James O. Berger Pdf

In this new edition the author has added substantial material on Bayesian analysis, including lengthy new sections on such important topics as empirical and hierarchical Bayes analysis, Bayesian calculation, Bayesian communication, and group decision making. With these changes, the book can be used as a self-contained introduction to Bayesian analysis. In addition, much of the decision-theoretic portion of the text was updated, including new sections covering such modern topics as minimax multivariate (Stein) estimation.

Author : Silvia Bacci,Bruno Chiandotto
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 305 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2019-07-11
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781351621397

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Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory by Silvia Bacci,Bruno Chiandotto Pdf

Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory: Utility Theory and Causal Analysis provides the theoretical background to approach decision theory from a statistical perspective. It covers both traditional approaches, in terms of value theory and expected utility theory, and recent developments, in terms of causal inference. The book is specifically designed to appeal to students and researchers that intend to acquire a knowledge of statistical science based on decision theory. Features Covers approaches for making decisions under certainty, risk, and uncertainty Illustrates expected utility theory and its extensions Describes approaches to elicit the utility function Reviews classical and Bayesian approaches to statistical inference based on decision theory Discusses the role of causal analysis in statistical decision theory

Author : David A. Blackwell,M. A. Girshick
Publisher : Courier Corporation
Page : 388 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2012-06-14
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780486150895

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Theory of Games and Statistical Decisions by David A. Blackwell,M. A. Girshick Pdf

Evaluating statistical procedures through decision and game theory, as first proposed by Neyman and Pearson and extended by Wald, is the goal of this problem-oriented text in mathematical statistics. First-year graduate students in statistics and other students with a background in statistical theory and advanced calculus will find a rigorous, thorough presentation of statistical decision theory treated as a special case of game theory. The work of Borel, von Neumann, and Morgenstern in game theory, of prime importance to decision theory, is covered in its relevant aspects: reduction of games to normal forms, the minimax theorem, and the utility theorem. With this introduction, Blackwell and Professor Girshick look at: Values and Optimal Strategies in Games; General Structure of Statistical Games; Utility and Principles of Choice; Classes of Optimal Strategies; Fixed Sample-Size Games with Finite Ω and with Finite A; Sufficient Statistics and the Invariance Principle; Sequential Games; Bayes and Minimax Sequential Procedures; Estimation; and Comparison of Experiments. A few topics not directly applicable to statistics, such as perfect information theory, are also discussed. Prerequisites for full understanding of the procedures in this book include knowledge of elementary analysis, and some familiarity with matrices, determinants, and linear dependence. For purposes of formal development, only discrete distributions are used, though continuous distributions are employed as illustrations. The number and variety of problems presented will be welcomed by all students, computer experts, and others using statistics and game theory. This comprehensive and sophisticated introduction remains one of the strongest and most useful approaches to a field which today touches areas as diverse as gambling and particle physics.

Author : Lucien Le Cam
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 767 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781461249467

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Asymptotic Methods in Statistical Decision Theory by Lucien Le Cam Pdf

This book grew out of lectures delivered at the University of California, Berkeley, over many years. The subject is a part of asymptotics in statistics, organized around a few central ideas. The presentation proceeds from the general to the particular since this seemed the best way to emphasize the basic concepts. The reader is expected to have been exposed to statistical thinking and methodology, as expounded for instance in the book by H. Cramer [1946] or the more recent text by P. Bickel and K. Doksum [1977]. Another pos sibility, closer to the present in spirit, is Ferguson [1967]. Otherwise the reader is expected to possess some mathematical maturity, but not really a great deal of detailed mathematical knowledge. Very few mathematical objects are used; their assumed properties are simple; the results are almost always immediate consequences of the definitions. Some objects, such as vector lattices, may not have been included in the standard background of a student of statistics. For these we have provided a summary of relevant facts in the Appendix. The basic structures in the whole affair are systems that Blackwell called "experiments" and "transitions" between them. An "experiment" is a mathe matical abstraction intended to describe the basic features of an observational process if that process is contemplated in advance of its implementation. Typically, an experiment consists of a set E> of theories about what may happen in the observational process.

Author : F. Liese,Klaus-J. Miescke
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 696 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2008-12-30
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780387731940

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Statistical Decision Theory by F. Liese,Klaus-J. Miescke Pdf

For advanced graduate students, this book is a one-stop shop that presents the main ideas of decision theory in an organized, balanced, and mathematically rigorous manner, while observing statistical relevance. All of the major topics are introduced at an elementary level, then developed incrementally to higher levels. The book is self-contained as it provides full proofs, worked-out examples, and problems. The authors present a rigorous account of the concepts and a broad treatment of the major results of classical finite sample size decision theory and modern asymptotic decision theory. With its broad coverage of decision theory, this book fills the gap between standard graduate texts in mathematical statistics and advanced monographs on modern asymptotic theory.

Author : Shanti S. Gupta,James O. Berger
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 535 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781461226185

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Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics V by Shanti S. Gupta,James O. Berger Pdf

The Fifth Purdue International Symposium on Statistical Decision The was held at Purdue University during the period of ory and Related Topics June 14-19,1992. The symposium brought together many prominent leaders and younger researchers in statistical decision theory and related areas. The format of the Fifth Symposium was different from the previous symposia in that in addition to the 54 invited papers, there were 81 papers presented in contributed paper sessions. Of the 54 invited papers presented at the sym posium, 42 are collected in this volume. The papers are grouped into a total of six parts: Part 1 - Retrospective on Wald's Decision Theory and Sequential Analysis; Part 2 - Asymptotics and Nonparametrics; Part 3 - Bayesian Analysis; Part 4 - Decision Theory and Selection Procedures; Part 5 - Probability and Probabilistic Structures; and Part 6 - Sequential, Adaptive, and Filtering Problems. While many of the papers in the volume give the latest theoretical developments in these areas, a large number are either applied or creative review papers.

Author : John Winsor Pratt,Howard Raiffa,Robert Schlaifer
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 906 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 1995
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0262161443

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Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory by John Winsor Pratt,Howard Raiffa,Robert Schlaifer Pdf

They then examine the Bernoulli, Poisson, and Normal (univariate and multivariate) data generating processes.

Author : Nicholas T. Longford
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 309 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2021-03-29
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781000347586

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Statistics for Making Decisions by Nicholas T. Longford Pdf

A constructive response to the criticisms of using hypothesis testing for making decisions Integrating the context (the client’s perspective, value judgments, priorities and remits) in the analysis, combining it with sensitivity analysis that handles the uncertainty arising in elicitation of the context Treatment of the problems by elementary (analytical) methods Applications that illustrate the methods in their best light • Drawing on several publications in high-profile journals in applied statistics

Author : Howard Raiffa,Robert Schlaifer
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 396 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 1961
Category : Statistical decision
ISBN : UIUC:30112003010862

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Applied Statistical Decision Theory by Howard Raiffa,Robert Schlaifer Pdf

Author : Michael Zabarankin,Stan Uryasev
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 249 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2013-12-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781461484714

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Statistical Decision Problems by Michael Zabarankin,Stan Uryasev Pdf

Statistical Decision Problems presents a quick and concise introduction into the theory of risk, deviation and error measures that play a key role in statistical decision problems. It introduces state-of-the-art practical decision making through twenty-one case studies from real-life applications. The case studies cover a broad area of topics and the authors include links with source code and data, a very helpful tool for the reader. In its core, the text demonstrates how to use different factors to formulate statistical decision problems arising in various risk management applications, such as optimal hedging, portfolio optimization, cash flow matching, classification, and more. The presentation is organized into three parts: selected concepts of statistical decision theory, statistical decision problems, and case studies with portfolio safeguard. The text is primarily aimed at practitioners in the areas of risk management, decision making, and statistics. However, the inclusion of a fair bit of mathematical rigor renders this monograph an excellent introduction to the theory of general error, deviation, and risk measures for graduate students. It can be used as supplementary reading for graduate courses including statistical analysis, data mining, stochastic programming, financial engineering, to name a few. The high level of detail may serve useful to applied mathematicians, engineers, and statisticians interested in modeling and managing risk in various applications.

Author : Ming-Hui Chen,Peter Müller,Dongchu Sun,Keying Ye,Dipak K. Dey
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 631 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2010-07-24
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781441969446

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Frontiers of Statistical Decision Making and Bayesian Analysis by Ming-Hui Chen,Peter Müller,Dongchu Sun,Keying Ye,Dipak K. Dey Pdf

Research in Bayesian analysis and statistical decision theory is rapidly expanding and diversifying, making it increasingly more difficult for any single researcher to stay up to date on all current research frontiers. This book provides a review of current research challenges and opportunities. While the book can not exhaustively cover all current research areas, it does include some exemplary discussion of most research frontiers. Topics include objective Bayesian inference, shrinkage estimation and other decision based estimation, model selection and testing, nonparametric Bayes, the interface of Bayesian and frequentist inference, data mining and machine learning, methods for categorical and spatio-temporal data analysis and posterior simulation methods. Several major application areas are covered: computer models, Bayesian clinical trial design, epidemiology, phylogenetics, bioinformatics, climate modeling and applications in political science, finance and marketing. As a review of current research in Bayesian analysis the book presents a balance between theory and applications. The lack of a clear demarcation between theoretical and applied research is a reflection of the highly interdisciplinary and often applied nature of research in Bayesian statistics. The book is intended as an update for researchers in Bayesian statistics, including non-statisticians who make use of Bayesian inference to address substantive research questions in other fields. It would also be useful for graduate students and research scholars in statistics or biostatistics who wish to acquaint themselves with current research frontiers.

Author : Nicholas T. Longford
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 124 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2013-10-17
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9783642404337

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Statistical Decision Theory by Nicholas T. Longford Pdf

This monograph presents a radical rethinking of how elementary inferences should be made in statistics, implementing a comprehensive alternative to hypothesis testing in which the control of the probabilities of the errors is replaced by selecting the course of action (one of the available options) associated with the smallest expected loss. Its strength is that the inferences are responsive to the elicited or declared consequences of the erroneous decisions, and so they can be closely tailored to the client’s perspective, priorities, value judgments and other prior information, together with the uncertainty about them.

Author : Thomas S. Ferguson
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 408 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2014-07-10
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781483221236

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Mathematical Statistics by Thomas S. Ferguson Pdf

Mathematical Statistics: A Decision Theoretic Approach presents an investigation of the extent to which problems of mathematical statistics may be treated by decision theory approach. This book deals with statistical theory that could be justified from a decision-theoretic viewpoint. Organized into seven chapters, this book begins with an overview of the elements of decision theory that are similar to those of the theory of games. This text then examines the main theorems of decision theory that involve two more notions, namely the admissibility of a decision rule and the completeness of a class of decision rules. Other chapters consider the development of theorems in decision theory that are valid in general situations. This book discusses as well the invariance principle that involves groups of transformations over the three spaces around which decision theory is built. The final chapter deals with sequential decision problems. This book is a valuable resource for first-year graduate students in mathematics.