Strategic Monitor 2015 The Return Of Ghosts Hoped Past
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Strategic Monitor 2015: The return of ghosts hoped past? by Tim Sweijs,Stephan de Spiegeleire ,Kelsey Shantz,Frank Bekkers Pdf
The Return of Ghosts Hoped Past? Global Trends in Conflict and Cooperation, is HCSS’ most recent contribution to the Strategic Monitor and examines the longer-term security impact of these reappearing ghosts. Are the horrific events that dominated news agendas in 2014 - such as the downing of MH-17 and violent acts of IS - isolated incidents or part of a more structural trend? Did the ‘ghosts of the past’ ever really go away? In the report, HCSS addresses recent events and trends in light of overarching patterns of conflict.
The wheel of fortune by Stephan de Spiegeleire,Tim Sweijs,Frank Bekkers Pdf
National security starts with strategic anticipation: what are the risks for the Dutch national security? How can the Netherlands prepare for this, and what choices and investments are needed in order to do so?
Security in an Interconnected World by ERNST. DIJSTELBLOEM HIRSCH BALLIN (HUUB. DE GOEDE, PETER.) Pdf
This open access book follows the idea that security policy must be based on strategic analysis. Defence policy and the role of the armed forces can subsequently be determined on the grounds of said analysis. More than ever, internal and external security, and developments both in the Netherlands and abroad are interconnected. The world order is shifting, the cooperation within NATO and the EU is under pressure and the Dutch armed forces are gasping for breath. What is the task of Dutch security and the defence policy? There have been growing calls in the last few years to end the devastating cuts in the defence budget and to invest more in security. The acute threats and conflicts in which the Netherlands are involved have served as a wake-up call. The shooting down of Flight MH17 over Ukraine, the streams of refugees from Syria and other countries, the conflict with Da'esh in Syria and Iraq, and terrorist threats reveal how events in many of the world's flash-points have a direct or indirect impact on the Netherlands. Conflicts in other countries have a spill-over effect in The Netherlands. This is illustrated by tensions between population groups and the clashes over the Gülen schools after the failed putsch in Turkey on 15 July 2016 and over the constitutional referendum in that country. How do we ensure that any additional funds are not divided amongst the branches of the armed forces without any sense of strategic direction? What should a future-proof security policy that plots the course of defence policy entail? What strategic analyses should lie behind the political choices that are made? This book answers these questions and offers a comprehensive framework addressing among other things human security, national security and flow security.
Tim Sweijs,Stephan De Spiegeleire ,Sijbren de Jong,Willem Oosterveld ,Hannes Roos,Frank Bekkers ,Artur Usanov,Robert de Rave,Karlijn Jans
Author : Tim Sweijs,Stephan De Spiegeleire ,Sijbren de Jong,Willem Oosterveld ,Hannes Roos,Frank Bekkers ,Artur Usanov,Robert de Rave,Karlijn Jans Publisher : The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies Page : 256 pages File Size : 52,6 Mb Release : 2017-02-20 Category : Electronic ISBN : 9789492102461
Volatility and friction in the age of disintermediation by Tim Sweijs,Stephan De Spiegeleire ,Sijbren de Jong,Willem Oosterveld ,Hannes Roos,Frank Bekkers ,Artur Usanov,Robert de Rave,Karlijn Jans Pdf
Events unfolded once again at a swirling pace in 2016. Terrorists hit Europe’s capital in March. The British population voted for Brexit in June. Turkish armed forces failed to topple Erdoğan in July. A resurgent Russia flexed its military muscles again in the Middle East and actively interfered in American elections, in which the American population elected Trump, in November. We are worried but certainly not surprised by the volatility of contemporary international relations. In previous editions of our contribution to the Dutch government’s Strategic Monitor, we already observed a surge in assertive behavior, noted a dangerous uptick in crises, and warned for the contagiousness of political violence. The current volatility is not a coincidence, but rather the result of fundamental disturbances of the global order that are greatly amplified by rapid technological developments. Most mainstream explanations of recent turbulence focus on power transitions (the decline of the West and the rise of the rest), the concomitant return to more aggressive forms of power politics, and a backlash against globalization. What strikes us is that many of the explanations ignore what we consider one of the most striking mega trends that is reshaping the dynamics of power: the ongoing process of disintermediation. The StratMon 2016-2017 analyzes global trends in confrontation, cooperation and conflict based on different datasets. This year the report also contains case studies on Turkey, Moldova and The rise and fall of ISIS. Chapters analyzing the many faces of political violence and 'the other side of the security coin' are also included.
Stephan De Spiegeleire,Yulia Aleshchenkova,Koen van Lieshout,Christopher Frattina,Tariq Zaidi
Author : Stephan De Spiegeleire,Yulia Aleshchenkova,Koen van Lieshout,Christopher Frattina,Tariq Zaidi Publisher : The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies Page : 58 pages File Size : 53,8 Mb Release : 2017-02-20 Category : Electronic ISBN : 9789492102485
Nowcasting Geodynamics by Stephan De Spiegeleire,Yulia Aleshchenkova,Koen van Lieshout,Christopher Frattina,Tariq Zaidi Pdf
HCSS’ original term “nowcasting” – as opposed to forecasting – describes the process of monitoring, depicting, and analyzing ongoing developments in international relations as they occur. Once again, our study “Nowcasting Geodynamics” uses a rich base of quantitative data to move beyond the anecdotal, and towards the systematic. We intend our empirical approach to add to debates across all domains – diplomatic, economics, legal, military, etc. – and across all countries, whether they are great powers such as the United States or China, or smaller but strategically important states, such as Indonesia, and Egypt. This year’s analysis covers the geodynamic trends of countries across the world and traverses the different domains in order to give perspectives on the “now” trends, and where they might lead us in the future. This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.
Willem Th. Oosterveld,Stephan de Spiegeleire,Marjolein de Ridder,Tim Sweijs,Frank Bekkers,Dana Poláčková,Scott Ward,Kamal Eldin Salah,Rik Rutten,Nathalie Olah
Author : Willem Th. Oosterveld,Stephan de Spiegeleire,Marjolein de Ridder,Tim Sweijs,Frank Bekkers,Dana Poláčková,Scott Ward,Kamal Eldin Salah,Rik Rutten,Nathalie Olah Publisher : The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies Page : 143 pages File Size : 54,9 Mb Release : 2015-12-17 Category : Electronic ISBN : 9789492102317
SI VIS PACEM, PARA UTIQUE PACEM by Willem Th. Oosterveld,Stephan de Spiegeleire,Marjolein de Ridder,Tim Sweijs,Frank Bekkers,Dana Poláčková,Scott Ward,Kamal Eldin Salah,Rik Rutten,Nathalie Olah Pdf
Analyses of the international security environment typically provide somber overviews of the various drivers and manifestations of conflict and instability around the world. Recent developments such as the terrorist attacks in Paris, Beirut and elsewhere, a Middle East in flames, a resurgent Russia, incessant violence in West Africa or turmoil in South China Sea only reinforce this view. By framing our analysis of the security environment in these terms, debates about how to anticipate and respond to these current and future threats invariably focus on those forces of instability and conflict: how to identify threats and enemies and then eliminate them. This report is based on the premise that this conflict-centric mindset has led to portfolio choices in terms of strategies (‘what do we do and how do we do it?’), capabilities (‘what do we do it with?’), and partners (‘who do we do it with?’) that have been excessively onesided. This report argues that there is an alternative, complementary way of framing security that is equally real and equally actionable for defense and security organizations (DSOs4 ): a resilience-centric one.
#1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NATIONAL BOOK AWARD WINNER • NAMED ONE OF TIME’S TEN BEST NONFICTION BOOKS OF THE DECADE • PULITZER PRIZE FINALIST • NATIONAL BOOK CRITICS CIRCLE AWARD FINALIST • ONE OF OPRAH’S “BOOKS THAT HELP ME THROUGH” • NOW AN HBO ORIGINAL SPECIAL EVENT Hailed by Toni Morrison as “required reading,” a bold and personal literary exploration of America’s racial history by “the most important essayist in a generation and a writer who changed the national political conversation about race” (Rolling Stone) NAMED ONE OF THE MOST INFLUENTIAL BOOKS OF THE DECADE BY CNN • NAMED ONE OF PASTE’S BEST MEMOIRS OF THE DECADE • NAMED ONE OF THE TEN BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY The New York Times Book Review • O: The Oprah Magazine • The Washington Post • People • Entertainment Weekly • Vogue • Los Angeles Times • San Francisco Chronicle • Chicago Tribune • New York • Newsday • Library Journal • Publishers Weekly In a profound work that pivots from the biggest questions about American history and ideals to the most intimate concerns of a father for his son, Ta-Nehisi Coates offers a powerful new framework for understanding our nation’s history and current crisis. Americans have built an empire on the idea of “race,” a falsehood that damages us all but falls most heavily on the bodies of black women and men—bodies exploited through slavery and segregation, and, today, threatened, locked up, and murdered out of all proportion. What is it like to inhabit a black body and find a way to live within it? And how can we all honestly reckon with this fraught history and free ourselves from its burden? Between the World and Me is Ta-Nehisi Coates’s attempt to answer these questions in a letter to his adolescent son. Coates shares with his son—and readers—the story of his awakening to the truth about his place in the world through a series of revelatory experiences, from Howard University to Civil War battlefields, from the South Side of Chicago to Paris, from his childhood home to the living rooms of mothers whose children’s lives were taken as American plunder. Beautifully woven from personal narrative, reimagined history, and fresh, emotionally charged reportage, Between the World and Me clearly illuminates the past, bracingly confronts our present, and offers a transcendent vision for a way forward.
Malawi by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. Pdf
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that bold economic reforms undertaken in mid-2012 in Malawi transformed the policy environment and greatly improved the outlook of the economy. Over 2012–14, real GDP growth and inflation averaged 4.3 percent and 24.5 percent, respectively. The economic outlook remains difficult reflecting the negative impact of weather-related shocks, the ongoing suspension of budget support, persistently high inflation and weaker global demand which could hurt Malawi’s exports. Real GDP growth is projected to fall by 2.7 percentage points to 3 percent in 2015.
Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Appropriations for 2015 by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Pdf
Internet of Things Applications - From Research and Innovation to Market Deployment by Ovidiu Vermesan,Peter Friess Pdf
The book aims to provide a broad overview of various topics of Internet of Things from the research, innovation and development priorities to enabling technologies, nanoelectronics, cyber physical systems, architecture, interoperability and industrial applications. It is intended to be a standalone book in a series that covers the Internet of Things activities of the IERC – Internet of Things European Research Cluster from technology to international cooperation and the global state of play.The book builds on the ideas put forward by the European research Cluster on the Internet of Things Strategic Research Agenda and presents global views and state of the art results.
If you want your startup to succeed, you need to understand why startups fail. “Whether you’re a first-time founder or looking to bring innovation into a corporate environment, Why Startups Fail is essential reading.”—Eric Ries, founder and CEO, LTSE, and New York Times bestselling author of The Lean Startup and The Startup Way Why do startups fail? That question caught Harvard Business School professor Tom Eisenmann by surprise when he realized he couldn’t answer it. So he launched a multiyear research project to find out. In Why Startups Fail, Eisenmann reveals his findings: six distinct patterns that account for the vast majority of startup failures. • Bad Bedfellows. Startup success is thought to rest largely on the founder’s talents and instincts. But the wrong team, investors, or partners can sink a venture just as quickly. • False Starts. In following the oft-cited advice to “fail fast” and to “launch before you’re ready,” founders risk wasting time and capital on the wrong solutions. • False Promises. Success with early adopters can be misleading and give founders unwarranted confidence to expand. • Speed Traps. Despite the pressure to “get big fast,” hypergrowth can spell disaster for even the most promising ventures. • Help Wanted. Rapidly scaling startups need lots of capital and talent, but they can make mistakes that leave them suddenly in short supply of both. • Cascading Miracles. Silicon Valley exhorts entrepreneurs to dream big. But the bigger the vision, the more things that can go wrong. Drawing on fascinating stories of ventures that failed to fulfill their early promise—from a home-furnishings retailer to a concierge dog-walking service, from a dating app to the inventor of a sophisticated social robot, from a fashion brand to a startup deploying a vast network of charging stations for electric vehicles—Eisenmann offers frameworks for detecting when a venture is vulnerable to these patterns, along with a wealth of strategies and tactics for avoiding them. A must-read for founders at any stage of their entrepreneurial journey, Why Startups Fail is not merely a guide to preventing failure but also a roadmap charting the path to startup success.
Security in an Interconnected World by Ernst Hirsch Ballin,Huub Dijstelbloem,Peter de Goede Pdf
This open access book follows the idea that security policy must be based on strategic analysis. Defence policy and the role of the armed forces can subsequently be determined on the grounds of said analysis. More than ever, internal and external security, and developments both in the Netherlands and abroad are interconnected. The world order is shifting, the cooperation within NATO and the EU is under pressure and the Dutch armed forces are gasping for breath. What is the task of Dutch security and the defence policy? There have been growing calls in the last few years to end the devastating cuts in the defence budget and to invest more in security. The acute threats and conflicts in which the Netherlands are involved have served as a wake-up call. The shooting down of Flight MH17 over Ukraine, the streams of refugees from Syria and other countries, the conflict with Da'esh in Syria and Iraq, and terrorist threats reveal how events in many of the world's flash-points have a direct or indirect impact on the Netherlands. Conflicts in other countries have a spill-over effect in The Netherlands. This is illustrated by tensions between population groups and the clashes over the Gülen schools after the failed putsch in Turkey on 15 July 2016 and over the constitutional referendum in that country. How do we ensure that any additional funds are not divided amongst the branches of the armed forces without any sense of strategic direction? What should a future-proof security policy that plots the course of defence policy entail? What strategic analyses should lie behind the political choices that are made? This book answers these questions and offers a comprehensive framework addressing among other things human security, national security and flow security. This work was published by Saint Philip Street Press pursuant to a Creative Commons license permitting commercial use. All rights not granted by the work's license are retained by the author or authors.
The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind by Julian Jaynes Pdf
National Book Award Finalist: “This man’s ideas may be the most influential, not to say controversial, of the second half of the twentieth century.”—Columbus Dispatch At the heart of this classic, seminal book is Julian Jaynes's still-controversial thesis that human consciousness did not begin far back in animal evolution but instead is a learned process that came about only three thousand years ago and is still developing. The implications of this revolutionary scientific paradigm extend into virtually every aspect of our psychology, our history and culture, our religion—and indeed our future. “Don’t be put off by the academic title of Julian Jaynes’s The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind. Its prose is always lucid and often lyrical…he unfolds his case with the utmost intellectual rigor.”—The New York Times “When Julian Jaynes . . . speculates that until late in the twentieth millennium BC men had no consciousness but were automatically obeying the voices of the gods, we are astounded but compelled to follow this remarkable thesis.”—John Updike, The New Yorker “He is as startling as Freud was in The Interpretation of Dreams, and Jaynes is equally as adept at forcing a new view of known human behavior.”—American Journal of Psychiatry