Surprises In Probability

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Surprises in Probability

Henk Tijms
Surprises in Probability Book PDF

Author : Henk Tijms
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 144 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2018-08-30
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780429815492

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Surprises in Probability by Henk Tijms Pdf

This book brings together a variety of probability applications through entertaining stories that will appeal to a broad readership. What are the best stopping rules for the dating problem? What can Bayes’ formula tell us about the chances of a Champions League draw for soccer teams being rigged? How could syndicates win millions of lottery dollars by buying a multitude of tickets at the right time? What’s the best way to manage your betting bankroll in a game in which you have an edge? How to use probability to debunk quacks and psychic mediums? How can the Monte Carlo simulation be used to solve a wide variety of probability problems? Are seven riffle shuffles of a standard deck of 52 playing cards enough for randomness? Provides seventeen engaging stories that illustrate ideas in probability. Written so as to be suitable for those with minimal mathematical background. Stories can be read independently. Can be used as examples and exercises for teaching introductory probability. These questions and many more are addressed in seventeen short chapters that can be read independently. The engaging stories are instructive and demonstrate valuable probabilistic ideas. They offer students material that they most likely don’t learn in class, and offer teachers a new way of teaching their subject.

Examining an Operational Approach to Teaching Probability

Drivet, Alessio
Examining an Operational Approach to Teaching Probability Book PDF

Author : Drivet, Alessio
Publisher : IGI Global
Page : 369 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2020-12-18
Category : Education
ISBN : 9781799838722

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Examining an Operational Approach to Teaching Probability by Drivet, Alessio Pdf

Several years ago, there began a consideration of the inadequacy of a traditional approach to teaching mathematics. Many teachers and perhaps a majority of the students often realize something is wrong with these methods and report a lack of enthusiasm in dealing with the discipline. Many teachers think that certain established habits have a serious pedagogical basis, and therefore, it is difficult to question them. In addition, perhaps, there is also a certain fear in imagining and experimenting with new ways. Unfortunately, the excessive use of examples and abstract formulations with exclusive reference to algebraic language distances the student from the pleasure of the discipline. Mathematics, on the other hand, requires attention and concentration, but the understanding of its meaning gives rise to interest, pleasure to discover, and promotes deep learning. This is where studying probability from an operational approach has gained much traction. The most interesting aspect is the use of a very artisanal approach, starting with objects that students can, in part, find in their daily lives. Trying to identify objects and situations that speak of "different mathematics," embodied in everyday life, may offer more possibilities to deal with the mathematical illiteracy that seems to afflict a large part of our society. Examining an Operational Approach to Teaching Probability focuses on probability examined from an educational point of view and the implementation of a very concrete operational approach in the classroom. Two main pillars are examined within this book: concrete objects and IT tools used to perform simulations for probability teaching. Each chapter is devoted to an essential concept related to probability and covers the operational approach all the way from its historical development to types of probability studies, different teaching methods within the approach, and the theories surrounding it. This book is ideal for pre-service and in-service teachers looking for nontraditional approaches in teaching along with instructional designers, curricula developers, practitioners, researchers, academicians, and students interested in learning more about operational research and the use of objects to introduce probabilistic concepts in a new method of teaching.

Introduction to Probability with R

Kenneth Baclawski
Introduction to Probability with R Book PDF

Author : Kenneth Baclawski
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 384 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2008-01-24
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 142006522X

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Introduction to Probability with R by Kenneth Baclawski Pdf

Based on a popular course taught by the late Gian-Carlo Rota of MIT, with many new topics covered as well, Introduction to Probability with R presents R programs and animations to provide an intuitive yet rigorous understanding of how to model natural phenomena from a probabilistic point of view. Although the R programs are small in length, they are just as sophisticated and powerful as longer programs in other languages. This brevity makes it easy for students to become proficient in R. This calculus-based introduction organizes the material around key themes. One of the most important themes centers on viewing probability as a way to look at the world, helping students think and reason probabilistically. The text also shows how to combine and link stochastic processes to form more complex processes that are better models of natural phenomena. In addition, it presents a unified treatment of transforms, such as Laplace, Fourier, and z; the foundations of fundamental stochastic processes using entropy and information; and an introduction to Markov chains from various viewpoints. Each chapter includes a short biographical note about a contributor to probability theory, exercises, and selected answers. The book has an accompanying website with more information.

Proceedings of the European Cognitive Science Conference 2007

Stella Vosniadou,Daniel Kayser,Athanassios Protopapas
Proceedings of the European Cognitive Science Conference 2007 Book PDF

Author : Stella Vosniadou,Daniel Kayser,Athanassios Protopapas
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 976 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2017-09-29
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781317705567

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Proceedings of the European Cognitive Science Conference 2007 by Stella Vosniadou,Daniel Kayser,Athanassios Protopapas Pdf

This volume contains the invited lectures, invited symposia, symposia, papers and posters presented at the 2nd European Cognitive Science Conference held in Greece in May 2007. The papers presented in this volume range from empirical psychological studies and computational models to philosophical arguments, meta-analyses and even to neuroscientific experimentation. The quality of the work shows that the Cognitive Science Society in Europe is an exciting and vibrant one. There are 210 contributions by cognitive scientists from 27 different countries, including USA, France, UK, Germany, Greece, Italy, Belgium, Japan, Spain, the Netherlands, and Australia. This book will be of interest to anyone concerned with current research in Cognitive Science.

Exploring the Concept of Climate Surprises

M. H. Glantz
Exploring the Concept of Climate Surprises Book PDF

Author : M. H. Glantz
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 100 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 1998
Category : Science
ISBN : PSU:000032976021

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Exploring the Concept of Climate Surprises by M. H. Glantz Pdf

Examines the concept of climate surprise & its implications for environmental policymaking. This report examines the literature of surprise in many aspects of human society: psychology military, medicine, humor, agriculture, etc. Draws together various ways to consider the concept of surprise & examines different taxonomies of surprise that have been proposed. Surprise is a subject concept, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief system, & level of education. How policymakers have reacted to specific instance of climate change or climate surprise in the past is considered. Discusses techniques used in current assessment models & how climate surprise might be included in future models.

Math with Bad Drawings

Ben Orlin
Math with Bad Drawings Book PDF

Author : Ben Orlin
Publisher : Black Dog & Leventhal
Page : 556 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2018-09-18
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780316509022

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Math with Bad Drawings by Ben Orlin Pdf

A hilarious reeducation in mathematics-full of joy, jokes, and stick figures-that sheds light on the countless practical and wonderful ways that math structures and shapes our world. In Math With Bad Drawings, Ben Orlin reveals to us what math actually is; its myriad uses, its strange symbols, and the wild leaps of logic and faith that define the usually impenetrable work of the mathematician. Truth and knowledge come in multiple forms: colorful drawings, encouraging jokes, and the stories and insights of an empathetic teacher who believes that math should belong to everyone. Orlin shows us how to think like a mathematician by teaching us a brand-new game of tic-tac-toe, how to understand an economic crises by rolling a pair of dice, and the mathematical headache that ensues when attempting to build a spherical Death Star. Every discussion in the book is illustrated with Orlin's trademark "bad drawings," which convey his message and insights with perfect pitch and clarity. With 24 chapters covering topics from the electoral college to human genetics to the reasons not to trust statistics, Math with Bad Drawings is a life-changing book for the math-estranged and math-enamored alike.

Applications of Uncertainty Formalisms

Anthony Hunter,Simon D. Parsons
Applications of Uncertainty Formalisms Book PDF

Author : Anthony Hunter,Simon D. Parsons
Publisher : Springer
Page : 474 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2003-06-29
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783540494263

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Applications of Uncertainty Formalisms by Anthony Hunter,Simon D. Parsons Pdf

An introductory review of uncertainty formalisms by the volume editors begins the volume. The first main part of the book introduces some of the general problems dealt with in research. The second part is devoted to case studies; each presentation in this category has a well-delineated application problem and an analyzed solution based on an uncertainty formalism. The final part reports on developments of uncertainty formalisms and supporting technology, such as automated reasoning systems, that are vital to making these formalisms applicable. The book ends with a useful subject index. There is considerable synergy between the papers presented. The representative collection of case studies and associated techniques make the volume a particularly coherent and valuable resource. It will be indispensable reading for researchers and professionals interested in the application of uncertainty formalisms as well as for newcomers to the topic.

Understanding Probability

Henk Tijms
Understanding Probability Book PDF

Author : Henk Tijms
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 407 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2007-07-26
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781139465458

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Understanding Probability by Henk Tijms Pdf

In this fully revised second edition of Understanding Probability, the reader can learn about the world of probability in an informal way. The author demystifies the law of large numbers, betting systems, random walks, the bootstrap, rare events, the central limit theorem, the Bayesian approach and more. This second edition has wider coverage, more explanations and examples and exercises, and a new chapter introducing Markov chains, making it a great choice for a first probability course. But its easy-going style makes it just as valuable if you want to learn about the subject on your own, and high school algebra is really all the mathematical background you need.

Introduction to Probability

Joseph K. Blitzstein,Jessica Hwang
Introduction to Probability Book PDF

Author : Joseph K. Blitzstein,Jessica Hwang
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 599 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2014-07-24
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781498759762

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Introduction to Probability by Joseph K. Blitzstein,Jessica Hwang Pdf

Developed from celebrated Harvard statistics lectures, Introduction to Probability provides essential language and tools for understanding statistics, randomness, and uncertainty. The book explores a wide variety of applications and examples, ranging from coincidences and paradoxes to Google PageRank and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Additional

Enterprise Risk Management

Terje Aven,Shital Thekdi
Enterprise Risk Management Book PDF

Author : Terje Aven,Shital Thekdi
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 184 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2019-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780429756757

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Enterprise Risk Management by Terje Aven,Shital Thekdi Pdf

Enterprise Risk Management: Advances on its Foundation and Practice relates the fundamental enterprise risk management (ERM) concepts and current generic risk assessment and management principles that have been influential in redefining the risk field over the last decade. It defines ERM with a particular focus on understanding the nexus between risk, uncertainty, knowledge and performance. The book argues that there is critical need for ERM concepts, principles and methods to adapt to the latest and most influential risk management developments, as there are several issues with outdated ERM theories and practices; problems include the inability to effectively and systematically balance both opportunity and downside performance, or relying too much on narrow probability-based perspectives for risk assessment and decision-making. It expands traditional loss-based risk principles into new and innovative performance-risk frameworks, and presents fundamental risk principles that have recently been developed by the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA). All relevant statistical and risk concepts are clearly explained and interpreted using minimal mathematical notation. The focus of the book is centered around ideas and principles, more than technicalities. The book is primarily intended for risk professionals, researchers and graduate students in the fields of engineering and business, and should also be of interest to executive managers and policy makers with some background in quantitative methods such as statistics.

A First Course in Probability

Sheldon M. Ross
A First Course in Probability Book PDF

Author : Sheldon M. Ross
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 536 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2002
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : UOM:39076002858251

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A First Course in Probability by Sheldon M. Ross Pdf

P. 15.

Introduction to Probability, Second Edition

Joseph K. Blitzstein,Jessica Hwang
Introduction to Probability Second Edition Book PDF

Author : Joseph K. Blitzstein,Jessica Hwang
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 611 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2019-02-08
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780429766732

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Introduction to Probability, Second Edition by Joseph K. Blitzstein,Jessica Hwang Pdf

Developed from celebrated Harvard statistics lectures, Introduction to Probability provides essential language and tools for understanding statistics, randomness, and uncertainty. The book explores a wide variety of applications and examples, ranging from coincidences and paradoxes to Google PageRank and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Additional application areas explored include genetics, medicine, computer science, and information theory. The authors present the material in an accessible style and motivate concepts using real-world examples. Throughout, they use stories to uncover connections between the fundamental distributions in statistics and conditioning to reduce complicated problems to manageable pieces. The book includes many intuitive explanations, diagrams, and practice problems. Each chapter ends with a section showing how to perform relevant simulations and calculations in R, a free statistical software environment. The second edition adds many new examples, exercises, and explanations, to deepen understanding of the ideas, clarify subtle concepts, and respond to feedback from many students and readers. New supplementary online resources have been developed, including animations and interactive visualizations, and the book has been updated to dovetail with these resources. Supplementary material is available on Joseph Blitzstein’s website www. stat110.net. The supplements include: Solutions to selected exercises Additional practice problems Handouts including review material and sample exams Animations and interactive visualizations created in connection with the edX online version of Stat 110. Links to lecture videos available on ITunes U and YouTube There is also a complete instructor's solutions manual available to instructors who require the book for a course.

Probability and Finance

Glenn Shafer,Vladimir Vovk
Probability and Finance Book PDF

Author : Glenn Shafer,Vladimir Vovk
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 438 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2005-02-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780471461715

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Probability and Finance by Glenn Shafer,Vladimir Vovk Pdf

Provides a foundation for probability based on game theory rather than measure theory. A strong philosophical approach with practical applications. Presents in-depth coverage of classical probability theory as well as new theory.

Probability, Choice, and Reason

Leighton Vaughan Williams
Probability Choice and Reason Book PDF

Author : Leighton Vaughan Williams
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 311 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2021-09-15
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781000458879

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Probability, Choice, and Reason by Leighton Vaughan Williams Pdf

Much of our thinking is flawed because it is based on faulty intuition. By using the framework and tools of probability and statistics, we can overcome this to provide solutions to many real-world problems and paradoxes. We show how to do this, and find answers that are frequently very contrary to what we might expect. Along the way, we venture into diverse realms and thought experiments which challenge the way that we see the world. Features: An insightful and engaging discussion of some of the key ideas of probabilistic and statistical thinking Many classic and novel problems, paradoxes, and puzzles An exploration of some of the big questions involving the use of choice and reason in an uncertain world The application of probability, statistics, and Bayesian methods to a wide range of subjects, including economics, finance, law, and medicine Exercises, references, and links for those wishing to cross-reference or to probe further Solutions to exercises at the end of the book This book should serve as an invaluable and fascinating resource for university, college, and high school students who wish to extend their reading, as well as for teachers and lecturers who want to liven up their courses while retaining academic rigour. It will also appeal to anyone who wishes to develop skills with numbers or has an interest in the many statistical and other paradoxes that permeate our lives. Indeed, anyone studying the sciences, social sciences, or humanities on a formal or informal basis will enjoy and benefit from this book.

Probability for Machine Learning

Jason Brownlee
Probability for Machine Learning Book PDF

Author : Jason Brownlee
Publisher : Machine Learning Mastery
Page : 319 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2019-09-24
Category : Computers
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Probability for Machine Learning by Jason Brownlee Pdf

Probability is the bedrock of machine learning. You cannot develop a deep understanding and application of machine learning without it. Cut through the equations, Greek letters, and confusion, and discover the topics in probability that you need to know. Using clear explanations, standard Python libraries, and step-by-step tutorial lessons, you will discover the importance of probability to machine learning, Bayesian probability, entropy, density estimation, maximum likelihood, and much more.